The US Census Bureau thread

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Most metros are past their 2020 totals with the notable exceptions of NYC, Chicago, LA, and SF (in fact most California big metros), per Wiki.

Here are the 14 1M+ MSAs in 2020 that were still estimated to be below their 2020 pop. figure in 2024, ranked by their % below 2020.

1. New Orleans: -4.59%*
2. SF: -2.12%
3. LA: -2.07%
4. Honolulu: -1.75%*
5. Pittsburgh: -1.10%
6. Rochester: -0.76%
7. NYC: -0.71%
8. Cleveland: -0.64%
9. Buffalo: -0.58%
10. Memphis: -0.45%
11. Chicago: -0.43%
12. St. Louis: -0.30%
13. San Jose: -0.25%
14. Milwaukee: -0.02%

(*) Currently estimated to be below 1M+ people

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metr...atistical_area



Of those 14, only the top 5 are more than 1% below 2020.

And given that this data is now ~9 months old, it's quite possible that some of the cities at the bottom of the list above have already moved into positive territory (looking at you Milwaukee).

[The North One]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Edited to add: An encouraging data point is Wayne County, Michigan: 1,771,063 (+8,692). Is Detroit growing again? City numbers are sometime in May.

Census estimated growth in Detroit proper last year.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

I went ahead and figured out the separate birth and death rates for the metros.

In case this explanation is helpful for anyone, the way to interpret these percentages is like this: For births, imagine for this time period no one moved in or out of a place, and no one passed away. The births percentage below represents how much the area grew solely by births; and conversely for deaths: the percentage represents how much a place shrunk solely due to deaths, completely ignoring migrations and birth.


Change due to births:

United States: +1.07%
Northeast:+1.00%
Midwest: +1.06%
South: +1.12%
West: +1.04%


20 Largest MSAs:
.New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area +1.08%
.Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area +0.96%
.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area +1.00%
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area +1.26%
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area +1.27%
.Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area +1.03%
.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area +1.09%
.Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area +1.13%
.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area +1.05%
.Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area +1.10%
.Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area +0.99%
.Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area +1.12%
.San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area +0.94%
.Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area +1.02%
.Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area +1.06%
.Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area +1.11%
.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area +0.93%
.San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area +1.09%
.Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO Metro Area +1.09%
.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area +1.04%

Highest birth rates for MSAs >1 Million:
.Fresno, CA Metro Area +1.33%
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area +1.27%
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area +1.26%
.Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN Metro Area +1.26%
.Omaha, NE-IA Metro Area +1.25%
.Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area +1.23%

Lowest birth rates for MSAs >1 Million:
.Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area +0.89%
.Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metro Area +0.90%
.Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Metro Area +0.92%
.San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area +0.92%
.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area +0.93%
.San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area +0.94%


Highest birth rates for all MSAs:
.Hinesville, GA Metro Area +1.88%
.Odessa, TX Metro Area +1.85%
.Jacksonville, NC Metro Area +1.84%
.Midland, TX Metro Area +1.71%
.Eagle Pass, TX Metro Area +1.70%
.Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT Metro Area +1.65%


Lowest birth rates for all MSAs:
.Wildwood-The Villages, FL Metro Area +0.36%
.Punta Gorda, FL Metro Area +0.50%
.Amherst Town-Northampton, MA Metro Area +0.55%
.Homosassa Springs, FL Metro Area +0.59%
.Ithaca, NY Metro Area +0.61%
.Pittsfield, MA Metro Area +0.63%


Change due to deaths:

United States: -0.92%
Northeast: -0.90%
Midwest: -0.99%
South: -0.96%
West: -0.80%


20 Largest MSAs
.New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area -0.72%
.Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area -0.71%
.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area -0.80%
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area -0.64%
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area -0.62%
.Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area -0.84%
.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area -0.62%
.Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area -0.70%
.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area -0.90%
.Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area -0.81%
.Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area -0.79%
.Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area -0.75%
.San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area -0.70%
.Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area -0.97%
.Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area -0.71%
.Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area -0.75%
.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area -1.02%
.San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area -0.70%
.Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO Metro Area -0.71%
.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area -0.75%


Highest death rates for all MSAs:
.Homosassa Springs, FL Metro Area -1.87%
.Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Metro Area -1.77%
.Sebring, FL Metro Area -1.76%
.Wildwood-The Villages, FL Metro Area -1.74%
.Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA Metro Area -1.6%
.Beckley, WV Metro Area -1.59%


Lowest death rates for all MSAs:
.Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT Metro Area -0.46%
.Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area -0.54%
.Bozeman, MT Metro Area -0.54%
.San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area -0.57%
.McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metro Area -0.59%
.Logan, UT-ID Metro Area -0.59%


Highest death rates for MSAs >1 Million:
.Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area -1.2%
.Birmingham, AL Metro Area -1.11%
.Cleveland, OH Metro Area -1.07%
.Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area -1.06%
.Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area -1.06%
.Tulsa, OK Metro Area -1.03%


Lowest death rates for MSAs >1 Million:
.Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area -0.54%
.San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area -0.57%
.Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area -0.62%
.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area -0.62%
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area -0.62%
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area -0.64%

[meh]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

...although St. Louis city continues to wither.

Eh, the census estimates are suspect. IRS filings show that the city's tax base continues to grow, which does not imply "withering". So if we're losing folks it must be low income folks who are being at least partially replaced by higher-income folks. Our average household income and % of college degree attainment has grown as well. St. Louis should contest the numbers like Detroit did, because we have a similar issue where bad census methodology assumes population loss when residences are demolished, regardless of whether those residences were occupied. For the past several years the City has been applying dedicated funds to raze long-vacant buildings (primarily on the north side), so I'm sure this has artificially inflated the loss numbers.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by meh

Eh, the census estimates are suspect.

And that's an across the board caveat every time the CB releases new estimates.

People would be quite wise to take none of them as gospel.

The CB's population estimating assumptions and algorithms have proven themselves to be erroneous many times in the past, sometimes egregiously so.

[mhays]

Same with the actual counts.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by meh

bad census methodology assumes population loss when residences are demolished, regardless of whether those residences were occupied.

I agree the estimates are suspicious. To the Census Bureau's credit, they do publish detailed methodology.

To dig a bit deeper into the methodology, three key pieces go into the Census county estimates: births, deaths, and relocations from tax returns and Medicare enrollments.

The housing change data is used to allocate county populations into sub-county divisions like cities and towns, but is not used in calculating overall county numbers, so wouldn't enter into the Missouri county equivalent numbers we got last week. In other words, the city limit estimates are using different data than county and state estimates and thus a different methodology. Why? Excellent question!

The relocation data has a substantial lag, since the 2024 estimates are off of 2024 returns so 2023 relocations appear in the most recent data -- the better part of a two-year lag.

Also immigration is taken into account by extrapolating the most recent ACS results forward in time -- presumably a pretty rough process which is why immigrant-heavy cities are especially egregious in the estimates.

So the estimates are a mess, albeit probably the best guesstimate with the available data sets short of mailing a form to everyone in the country.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by mhays

Same with the actual counts.

That counts are not gospel either, of course.

Nothing truly is.

But I'd still put 1,000x more stock in them than these annual guesstimates.

Their track record guesstimating Chicago over the past several decades is horrendously, outrageously bad, so consider me especially burned.

[mhays]

Their track record compared to what...the counts which are also flawed?

Both methods have big holes. I've heard no basis to consider the (partial) counts that much better than the estimates.

[Steely Dan]

Nothing's perfect.

But I'm definitely inclined to place more faith in the actual counts than the estimates.

You're entirely free to disagree, but unlikely to convince me otherwise.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by mhays

Both methods have big holes. I've heard no basis to consider the (partial) counts that much better than the estimates.

The decennial counts are actual counts. The annual estimates are just imputations. The decennial counts are the official numbers.

And I don't think you'd find any statistician who'd agree that a much larger margin of error produces an equally flawed number.

[mhays]

They miss a lot of people in the counts. You can be precise but incomplete.

I believe the counts are typically more accurate than the estimates, just not necessarily overwhelmingly so. And when the counts are counterintuitive, it's a good bet that they made major errors or omissions.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

They miss a lot of people in the counts. You can be precise but incomplete.

I believe the counts are typically more accurate than the estimates, just not necessarily overwhelmingly so. And when the counts are counterintuitive, it's a good bet that they made major errors or omissions.

The estimates seem to diverge significantly from the decennial counts for certain places. I guess it's plausible that the decennial census is prone to undercounting, but the results seem remarkably consistent when comparing cities to themselves decade over decade.

[TexasBoi]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Williamson County passing a million people is so astonishing to me, but will most likely occur within a decade or so.

It's probably over 700k now. Crazy how its northern neighbor, Bell County, had a larger population in the 1990 census. I remember both having similar populations even up until 2000. Since that census, it has left Bell County in the dust.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by TexasBoi

It's probably over 700k now. Crazy how its northern neighbor, Bell County, had a larger population in the 1990 census. I remember both having similar populations even up until 2000. Since that census, it has left Bell County in the dust.

Just looked this up and Williamson is part of Austin metro and Bell is part of Killeen metro area, which I never heard of but has 500K per the US Census 2024 estimate. If Austin is growing in that direction so rapidly, is it likely that Austin metro will swallow up Killeen by 2030 or 2040?

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by TexasBoi

It's probably over 700k now. Crazy how its northern neighbor, Bell County, had a larger population in the 1990 census. I remember both having similar populations even up until 2000. Since that census, it has left Bell County in the dust.

According to the latest estimates which were just released the population of Williamson County is 727,480.

It added 25,840 people since the previous year's estimate, making it the metro county that added the most population. Travis County added 15,724 people during that year's estimate.

It added 118,423 between 2020-2024, which was also the most in the metro in that timeframe. In comparison Travis County added 73,616 people.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/2024...ion-estimates/

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Just looked this up and Williamson is part of Austin metro and Bell is part of Killeen metro area, which I never heard of but has 500K per the US Census 2024 estimate. If Austin is growing in that direction so rapidly, is it likely that Austin metro will swallow up Killeen by 2030 or 2040?

I think it's possible that Austin and Killeen metros become a CSA at some point.

[N90]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

I think it's possible that Austin and Killeen metros become a CSA at some point.

Hopefully not.

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by N90

Hopefully not.

How would that be a bad thing? I'm not saying it would be a good thing, either.

Though adding over half a million to the metro would be a substantial increase taking the hypothetical Austin CSA over 3 million people even at today's population.

[mhays]

It would generally mean a lot of sprawl and long commutes.