Canadian Federal Election - Page 339

WarrenC12 · #**6761** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodaggin

$1T is not an arbitrary number.

America had a $1.7T deficit. Which means they need to cut $1.7T. Otherwise, eventually, they will go bankrupt.

Canada has a recurring deficit of ~$40B. So Canada needs to cut $40B to also prevent going bankrupt. It's very basic math. It doesn't care about feelings. And this is just the deficit. It still doesn't address the debt.

No, they won't. You just don't understand how government finance works.

Debt to GDP is a much better metric. If your economy is growing faster than your debt, you're in good shape.

Taeolas · #**6762** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

It’s highly unlikely, but what happens if we have something like this:
LPC - 160
CPC - 140
BQ - 29
NDP - 7
GP - 2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wigs

I think it's going to look more like

I think Dengler isn't anticipating an outcome, but more wondering what would happen. In their scenario, even with NDP and Green support, the Liberals nor the PCs would have any sort of majority; they would need BQ support to do anything one way or another. How much support would depend on the other parties.

In such an (unlikely) scenario, the Liberals would form the initial government, and there would be a lot of horse trading to get quiet support from the BQ. (official support from the BQ is toxic to either party, due to the Separatist factor).

More likely Carney would tempt some PCs (likely eastern PCs) for support as well to get over the minimum and to hold government.

Likely the government would eventually fall, but the CPCs might be able to show enough support to be given a leadership chance. the problem there is they too would REALLY need BQ support, more so than the Liberals would... and once again BQ support is toxic to the national parties.

We'd likely be back to the polls by '27 at the absolute latest.

WarrenC12 · #**6763** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yeah. It's not just Carney calling this out. I saw this post from Prof Mike Moffat:

How do more homes equate to billions in revenue??

Anyway, didn't we just have the PBO go through each platform and give unbiased numbers the last few elections? What ever happened to that?

whatnext · #**6764** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:47 PM**

And people are voting for the Libs why, exactly?

Hanif Bayat
@HanifBayat
🇨🇦 Population Growth vs Housing & Healthcare (1955-2024)

🔹Housing & healthcare haven’t kept pace with population surge.

🔹In 2022-2023, 🇨🇦 added 2M people, but:
1️⃣Only 500K housing starts
2️⃣Just 815 family doctors added!
3️⃣1,359 hospital beds were cut!

🔹Housing Construction:
1️⃣Stagnated at ~200K units/year for decades
2️⃣Shows low elasticity to rapid population growth

🔹Healthcare:
1️⃣🇨🇦 lags most OECD countries in family doctors & hospital beds per 100K
2️⃣Bed reduction partly due to rise in same-day surgeries

https://x.com/HanifBayat/status/1914458197873602844

WarrenC12 · #**6765** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

And people are voting for the Libs why, exactly?

Because of Carney, obviously. Why are you voting for PP?

bodaggin · #**6766** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No, they won't. You just don't understand how government finance works.

Debt to GDP is a much better metric. If your economy is growing faster than your debt, you're in good shape.

You understand USA has the 11th highest Debt to GDP in the world, right? Canada has the 16th highest. Both are higher than Sri Lanka, who just defaulted in 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

Next will you cite credit rating agencies?

Wigs · #**6767** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 3:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Because of Carney, obviously. Why are you voting for PP?

Not just that. I like my incumbent Liberal MP. I don't want the Conservative candidate in my riding to be my MP even if I patronize his craft brewery. Stick to brewing beer and running restaurants not politics, buddy

NotToScale · #**6768** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Because of Carney, obviously. Why are you voting for PP?

Wooed by a charlatan with the same policies as the previous gov. Wonderful.

WarrenC12 · #**6769** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodaggin

You understand USA has the 11th highest Debt to GDP in the world, right? Canada has the 16th highest. Both are higher than Sri Lanka, who just defaulted in 2022.

Curious. Why haven't we and the US defaulted then? Must be something else happening there. Keep digging!

Also, it's the direction of Debt:GDP. The US has excessive deficits, I agree. They don't need to "go to zero or go bankrupt" though. That's a childish understanding of finance.

WarrenC12 · #**6770** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wigs

Not just that. I like my incumbent Liberal MP. I don't want the Conservative candidate in my riding to be my MP even if I patronize his craft brewery. Stick to brewing beer and running restaurants not politics, buddy

Hah, I don't know why people who are running successful small businesses would want to get into politics!

My MP is going to die in her chair in the House of Commons (Hedy Fry). Can't say I have much choice either way.

WarrenC12 · #**6771** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by NotToScale

Wooed by a charlatan with the same policies as the previous gov. Wonderful.

Carney is a charlatan now? Not the guy who just released a platform full of made up math?

Wigs · #**6772** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Hah, I don't know why people who are running successful small businesses would want to get into politics!

My MP is going to die in her chair in the House of Commons (Hedy Fry). Can't say I have much choice either way.

I've heard the name but don't know anything about her.

Ego would be the reason. This guy's also a failed MPP Conservative candidate in the 2022 Ontario election. This election could even be closer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NotToScale

Wooed by a charlatan with the same policies as the previous gov. Wonderful.

You're the person that couldn't even comprehend jonny24's post the other day.

whatnext · #**6773** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Because of Carney, obviously. Why are you voting for PP?

Because I don't trust Carney not to fall into classic Liberal ploys of goosing immigration to prop up developers and give businesses cheap labour instead of letting Canadian wages rise to match our ridiculous housing costs.

And then of course there's stuff like this courtesy of those radicals at the Globe & Mail. I'm surprised nobody mentioned it yet.

The Liberals’ (other) next carbon tax
The Editorial Board
Published April 21, 2025
For Subscribers

One of Mark Carney’s first acts as Prime Minister was to eliminate the federal carbon fuel charge, with the flourish of a sharpie marker and widespread media coverage.

Getting far less attention, however, is the Liberal Leader’s proposal to introduce a new layer of carbon tax on heavy industry that, if implemented, will drive up costs for those businesses and render them increasingly uncompetitive if they are not able to pass those expenses on to Canadian consumers. Mr. Carney’s replacement tax, despite being described as a way to make “big polluters” pay for subsidies for such things as EVs and heat pumps, could end up being a carbon levy on Canadian households to some degree. The only question is how much.

That was the first, next carbon tax from the Liberals. Buried in the party’s fiscal costing released over the weekend was another one: a carbon tariff. Technically speaking, the Liberals are proposing a “carbon border adjustment,” but it functions just like a tariff. Goods from countries without a sufficiently rigorous carbon pricing regime – like, say, the United States, Mexico and China – would be hit by a carbon levy, which would start in the 2027-28 fiscal year. (The Liberal campaign did not provide further details.)...

....Mr. Carney would like voters to believe that his next carbon tax will be a free-lunch substitute for the hated carbon fuel charge at the pumps. The reality – as made clear by his (other) next carbon tax – is that Canadians will still end up paying.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-the-liberals-other-next-carbon-tax/

bodaggin · #**6774** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Curious. Why haven't we and the US defaulted then? Must be something else happening there. Keep digging!

Because they keep printing money to refi the debt. Did you not notice M1 supply increase 400% since Cov? Yes, gov is different than an individual in that they can print away their debt to avoid a default. But it's still a default, because it results in inflation to the citizens.

Inflation is the very thing Canada is complaining about with affordability. Yet politicians are applying microeconomic solutions to macroeconomic monetary problems.

But the laws of supply and demand don't apply to currencies. I forgot.

WarrenC12 · #**6775** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Because they keep printing money to refi the debt.

Not exactly how it works, but yes the government needs to refinance, and money supply is a lever the independent Bank of Canada can use to guide the economy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Did you not notice M1 supply increase 400% since Cov? Yes, gov is different than an individual in that they can print away their debt to avoid a default. But it's still a default, because it results in inflation to the citizens.

We all saw the direct impact and fallout from COVID. But, that's not what default means. The government doesn't control the money printing machine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Inflation is the very thing Canada is complaining about with affordability. Yet politicians are applying microeconomic solutions to macroeconomic monetary problems.

But the laws of supply and demand don't apply to currencies. I forgot.

Inflation is the big problem? Are you still living in 2023?

You're just spouting words you don't really understand.

bodaggin · #**6776** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Inflation is the big problem? Are you still living in 2023?

You're just spouting words you don't really understand.

Man are you semantic. Affordability was the number 1 or number 2 issue of this election, depending who you ask. Affordability. High prices. The result, of inflation. Caused by the $300-400B Covid Currency supply expansion.

BoC holdings of GoC bonds increased by $400B post-cov.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/bankin...sets-and-liabilities-weekly-formerly-b2/

Was this an example of BoC's "independence"? Was this an example of them "guiding" the economy?

Marshsparrow · #**6777** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 4:57 PM**

Well thank goodness they took care of this important oversight!

Conservatives update platform to include omitted 'anti-woke' promise
Platform published Tuesday didn't include commitment made earlier in the campaign
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-woke-platform-oversight-1.7516315

FrankieFlowerpot · #**6778** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 5:02 PM**

And here's the problem in tracking just one single pollsters polls

From April 8th to April 12th - we had a 9 point swing from the Libs to the Cons.
From April 12th to April 15th - we had a 6 point swing back again.
From April 15th to April 18th - we had an 8 point swing back to the Cons again
and since then we've had a 5 point swing back to the Libs

MonctonRad · #**6779** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 5:15 PM**

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 42.7%, 192 seats
CPC - 38,3%, 122 seats
BLQ - 5.9%, 23 seats
NDP - 8.4%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.2%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.6%, 0 seats

The slow downward drift of the LPC continues. The prediction is currently 192 seats. At one point, they were at 204 seats. If the current rate of drift is maintained, they might only get a tight majority government with only a few seats to spare.

I really want to avoid a minority government. I do not want the NDP holding the LPC hostage like they did over the last four years. We can't afford any more NDP extortion.

CanSpice · #**6780** Posted **Apr 23, 2025, 5:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Well thank goodness they took care of this important oversight!

Conservatives update platform to include omitted 'anti-woke' promise
Platform published Tuesday didn't include commitment made earlier in the campaign
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-woke-platform-oversight-1.7516315

"Our platform wasn't unserious enough, we needed to throw 'anti-woke' into it to make it even more childish!"