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View Poll Results: Who has the more positive vision for Canada's future?
Mark Carney's Liberals 176 73.95%
Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives 62 26.05%
Voters: 238. You may not vote on this poll

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  #6741  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 3:20 AM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
Oh man I can't believe there are actually people buying into the idea that DOGE is genuinely there to reduce "waste". It's there to allow Musk and people like him to get away with things they otherwise couldn't like mistreating workers and consumers. Which is why the National Labor Relations Board, the Food and Drug Administration and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau were among the first things targeted.

It's literally just giving a pleasant sounding name to something horrific which is the dismantlement of the only real barrier preventing self-interested billionaires from taking over society. But can give something whatever name you want. It's what that thing is and does that matters.
There's a sucker born every minute, as the saying goes. I'll give them this. Rebranding all the government functions and programs they don't like as "waste" was pretty shrewd. There's enough gullible people, like the DOGE apologist in this thread, to buy it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshsparrow View Post
The $18B in new revenue is a head scratcher.
Yeah. It's not just Carney calling this out. I saw this post from Prof Mike Moffat:

Quote:
The Conservative plan is out and, ooof, is this costing a disaster.

There's a whole bunch of phantom revenues booked here, and the GST housing pledge is costed at under $2B. Given their proposed eligibility criteria, it should be more in the 4-6B range.

https://x.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1914690899893703009?t=9Iy2vdsvYY-PqDlnvTPWeQ&s=19
     
     
  #6742  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 3:39 AM
bodaggin bodaggin is offline
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Originally Posted by Dartguard View Post
Too soon to say if the Rivers are Trash.
River Class only has 24 VLS cells. It's barely a patrol ship!

For perspective a Sejong Class has 128 VLS cells and costs 80% less than a River.

River Class Destroyers are the single largest squander in Canadian history. It isn't even close. Cancel them immediately and go with a viable alternative.
     
     
  #6743  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 4:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Nobody ever said it cost $200B to build the capability. That $200B also includes the ships and their lifecycle costs.
River Class is a ripoff in front end and operational costs.

UP FRONT (15 ships):
$100 billion
$7 billion per ship.

For perspective, this is 2x more expensive than an Arleigh Burke, 4x more expensive than a Sejong, and 8x more expensive than a Mogami or Iver Huitfeldt. All of which are more lethal than the River Class. Some 5x more lethal.

OPERATING (40yrs):
$200 billion
$330 million, per year, per ship.

For perspective, an Arleigh Burke costs roughly $120 million per year to operate. River is 3x more expensive to operate, and Arleigh Burke is an inefficient benchmark to begin with. Mogami or Iver Huitfeldt would be even cheaper to operate. If squandering this egregious is being defended, imagine what other waste exists in gov.
     
     
  #6744  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 4:40 AM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Quebec will decide whether this is a LPC majority or minority. Ontario seems baked in for the Libs to get 75-80 seats based on pretty much every poll I've seen.

So some napkin math where my head is at right now,

Atlantic= 25 LPC, 7 CPC
Quebec= 40 LPC, 25 Bloc, 13 CPC
Ontario= 77 LPC, 41 CPC, 3 NDP
Manitoba= 5 LPC, 8 CPC, 1 NDP
Saskatchewan= 14 CPC
Alberta= 33 CPC, 3 LPC, 1 NDP
BC= 21 LPC, 20 CPC, 2 NDP
Territories= 3 LPC

Total= 174 LPC, 135 CPC, 25 Bloc, 8 NDP

As you can see, LPC right on the edge of majority BUT if Quebec continues to fall into the hands of the Bloc (say LPC only gets 35 seats in Quebec) BOOM, you have 169 LPC seats. So it will really will depend on Quebec. Their polling has shown a 5 point drop from LPC to Bloc post debate. Any more drops, and there won't be a majority.
I'm going to do a breakdown by province and territory using the numbers I predicted over Easter weekend:

LPC: 197

CPC: 125

BQ: 13

NDP: 7

GPC: 1

-----------------

NL: 7 LPC

PE: 4 LPC

NS: 8 LPC, 3 CPC

NB: 7 LPC, 3 CPC

QC: 54 LPC, 13 BQ, 10 CPC, 1 NDP

ON: 84 LPC, 36 CPC, 1 NDP, 1 GPC

MB: 6 LPC, 6 CPC, 2 NDP

SK: 13 CPC, 1 LPC

AB: 31 CPC, 5 LPC, 1 NDP

BC: 23 CPC, 18 LPC, 2 NDP

YT: 1 LPC

NT: 1 LPC

NU: 1 LPC

It was tough deciding the numbers. Quebec and Ontario were difficult to predict how much of a Liberal surprise increase in support there might be. Liberal numbers could end up being a bit higher. BC is also tough because there are some NDP losses that will go Conservative and there is also the differences in urban, suburban and rural voting patterns to take into account. My prediction is that the CPC will do slightly better than what the polls are showing for BC as polling doesn't seem to capture the differences I mentioned very well. Alberta will probably see some close races in Edmonton and maybe a few ridings in Calgary which is hard to forecast.

Last edited by Loco101; Apr 23, 2025 at 4:54 AM.
     
     
  #6745  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 5:45 AM
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Can you imagine the NDP collapsing all the way down to 8 seats with their leader losing his seat and they still hold the balance of power in a minority government.

I will never understand what Quebecers think they are getting by electing an irrelevant party. They would have a much bigger voice supporting a party that can actually govern. One back bench Liberal MP has more ability to represent Quebec in decision making than the entire Bloc caucus.
     
     
  #6746  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 10:36 AM
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CPC seem to have opened the taps for the ad campaign now. Hearing a CPC ad pretty much every ad break on the local radio station. With so many advanced voters, I have to wonder how effective they'll be, but it's something I guess.

Strangely, still not an ad at all for the LPC, or any other party that I've heard. Maybe i've managed to succeed on most of my dodge checks for Political ads but locally I still have barely heard anything on the local campaign; I've just seen signs (and heard the day later that Carney was in town on Sunday)
     
     
  #6747  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 11:09 AM
Marshsparrow Marshsparrow is offline
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Some people on here criticized me when I said that it was a huge problem that PP and the CPC had no platform at all and that we didn't know where they stood on so many things. A couple people said that Doug Ford had no platform so why does PP need one. Well PP isn't Ford and he didn't present much of interest to swing voters early in the game. It was all about axing the carbon tax and so much so that Carney knew what to do to take the wind out of the CPC's sails.

PP had two years to come up with a good platform but didn't do the work nor did he come up with something good in the last week of the campaign. He should have been bold but now we see that he was actually afraid to lay out everything. If he would have released a half-decent plan a even two months ago he would have had a good shot at winning.
Kevin Page didn't have much great to say... there are many items that have $ in year one but then $0 in forward years. He says on page 1 he will balance the budget - it doesnt. Says he will reduce deficit by 70% of Liberals - I can't get that math to work. His housing numbers also don't add up. Keeps saying a 15% tax cut.

I don't think this will change any CPC supporters minds.
     
     
  #6748  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 11:38 AM
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It is weird. I would have expected better from a Canadian political party. Some examples:

Quote:
Axe the planned food packaging tax on fresh produce that could drive up grocery costs by up to 30%.
- Realty! 30% increase in the cost of groceries by going to paper vrs plastic. Do the conservatives actually believe this?

Quote:
End new labelling requirements for natural health products that will raise costs.
- The Conservatives don't like natural health products claims having to be based on science? I guess it costs more to be accurate about health product claims than just making stuff up.

Quote:
Never hike taxes and pass the Taxpayer Protection Act to ban new or higher federal taxes without asking taxpayers first in a referendum.
- Do any of use believe we re going to have a national referendum when the passport office needs to bump up the cost of a passport.

Quote:
Repeal the West Coast tanker ban (C-48) so we can build new LNG terminals to export our energy overseas, ending our economic dependence on the United States.
- Do the conservates not know the difference between oil and natural gas? Even with the tanker ban in place we a large LNG terminal nearly on line and several others under construction. That is because the tanker ban is on oil not LNG.

Quote:
Scrap the Liberal electricity tax that infringes on provincial jurisdiction, stifles economic growth, and makes us less competitive with the United States
There is no electricity tax.

Quote:
Double oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador, and greenlight the LNG Newfoundland and Labrador project to generate another billion dollars in revenue for Newfoundland’s economy, and create thousands of new jobs.
While I think we all want to see this stuff move forward, its up to private industry to make their final investment decision. Despite the promise I don't the conservatives are going to set up a crown corp and start oil and gas exploration. Private industry is going to be reluctant to invest at current prices.

Quote:
End federal rebates for made-in-China EVs to protect Canadian auto workers and our national security.
Canada already tariffs EVs from China. Can you even buy an EV from China? I mostly see Teslas in Victoria. Does anyone know if those are from the US or China?

..... The list goes on.

So many things wrong with the Conservative document. Did they review this before sending it out? Maybe they should have taken a few extra days to get it right.
     
     
  #6749  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post

Yeah. It's not just Carney calling this out. I saw this post from Prof Mike Moffat:

https://x.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1914690899893703009?t=9Iy2vdsvYY-PqDlnvTPWeQ&s=19
Poilievre has been CPC leader for 2.5 years. In two and a half years they couldn't come up with a good, solid, properly costed budget?

This is sloppy, hastily put together, and frankly towards Canadian voters that are actively engaged: disingenuous AF. Almost like "we can make up a bunch of numbers, Canadians don't read this anyway"


What was the attack ads they used against Trudeau in 2015?

Poilievre. "He's just not ready"
     
     
  #6750  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 12:56 PM
Marshsparrow Marshsparrow is offline
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This is a good read...

Why is Pierre Poilievre covering up the coming US civil war?
https://paulwells.substack.com/p/why-is-pierre-poilievre-covering
     
     
  #6751  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 1:51 PM
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Originally Posted by trueviking View Post
I will never understand what Quebecers think they are getting by electing an irrelevant party. They would have a much bigger voice supporting a party that can actually govern. One back bench Liberal MP has more ability to represent Quebec in decision making than the entire Bloc caucus.
In 1980, Québec elected 74 Liberal MPs out of 75 and we were rewarded by the biggest backstabbing possible: the 1982 Constitution signed without Québec.

More often than none, federal MPs dont represent Québec in Ottawa, but rather Ottawa in Québec.
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  #6752  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 1:56 PM
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Originally Posted by ToxiK View Post
More often than none, federal MPs dont represent Québec in Ottawa, but rather Ottawa in Québec.
That's very profound. I like it. Probably the same in other regions as well.
     
     
  #6753  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:15 PM
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It’s highly unlikely, but what happens if we have something like this:
LPC - 160
CPC - 140
BQ - 29
NDP - 7
GP - 2
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Disclaimer: Most of it is pure pie in the sky, so there's no need to be up in the arm about it.
     
     
  #6754  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post
It’s highly unlikely, but what happens if we have something like this:
LPC - 160
CPC - 140
BQ - 29
NDP - 7
GP - 2
Liberals form a possibly short-lived government.
     
     
  #6755  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:21 PM
lirette lirette is offline
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Originally Posted by casper View Post
It is weird. I would have expected better from a Canadian political party. Some examples:



- Realty! 30% increase in the cost of groceries by going to paper vrs plastic. Do the conservatives actually believe this?



Some clever manipulation here right out of a canadian tire "clearance" ad. They probably found one item, and item that already has an extremely low cost already that would go up by 30%. Using the "up to" language should be stricken from all usage.
     
     
  #6756  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:22 PM
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If LPC continues to be wedded to NDP, 2027 may get ugly for the two parties.
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  #6757  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:23 PM
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Since this is a development web site, i thought I'd post this here. I wrote a column in the Winnipeg free press outlining the two lead party platforms on housing. Coles notes: one is a comprehensive, multi-faceted, big picture idea. One is a 5% discount on expensive houses.

Major parties show they recognize the need for housing plans

Donald Trump-induced anxiety has overwhelmed Canada’s federal election, but housing affordability has managed to remain a central issue in the campaign. Platforms released by the two frontrunning parties approach Canada’s housing crisis in very different ways.

The Liberal plan’s headline-grabbing announcement is the establishment of a new Crown corporation awkwardly named, Build Canada Homes (BCH). The agency will focus on injecting significant amounts of purpose-built affordable housing into the market. Replacing the current model of providing incentives to private developers, BCH promises to make the federal government itself an affordable housing developer. The plan reimagines a postwar initiative that saw the federal government address housing shortages by constructing small homes across the country based on a catalogue of pre-approved designs. A new Housing Design Catalogue of regionally contextual, modern designs has been reintroduced for the current initiative.

BCH will partner with local builders to manage and develop affordable housing, built largely on public land. It will prioritize innovative housing delivery solutions like prefabrication, issuing guaranteed pre-orders to help build investment confidence in the industry. It will also partner with local not-for-profit developers to create student, seniors, and Indigenous housing, as well as supportive housing under the Housing First initiative.

To attract investment capital to the housing market, the Liberal plan re-introduces a 1970s policy called Multiple Unit Residential Building (MURB) tax incentives. This allows investors in approved rental apartments to deduct depreciation and certain other costs of the building from their personal income taxes, an idea that effectively brought smaller-scale real-estate investors into the market.

The Liberal plan will provide a homeowner incentive by eliminating GST for first-time buyers on new homes worth up to $1 million. They will also enhance programs like the Housing Accelerator Fund, which has become an effective financial carrot, rewarding cities across the country for streamlining housing approvals and removing restrictive zoning barriers to expedite development. Winnipeg is currently halfway through its $122-million agreement, with remaining payments being lost if the program was to be discontinued.

The Liberal plan is a bold, big-picture idea that rethinks how we build housing in Canada, but it comes with significant challenges and potential pitfalls. MURB tax shelters, as an example, were effective at increasing housing construction, but were often risky investments for those not familiar with the nuances of the real estate market.

Adding new layers of bureaucracy that do not traditionally move at the pace of the development industry will be a challenge to overcome. The government as a developer must also be careful not to unfairly compete with private industry. It should seek partnerships with local developers and be nimble enough to respond to the unique needs and conditions of each market, avoiding blanket national solutions. It will also be important that the desire for innovation does not get in the way of housing delivery. Growing the prefabrication industry is an important long-term goal, but it currently does not have the capacity, expertise, or financing models to fulfill aggressive immediate targets for homebuilding.

The Conservative housing platform was largely introduced last year as Bill C-356. The plan does not present any new initiatives to specifically build or incentivize purpose-built affordable housing, relying instead on the idea that increasing supply will reduce demand pressure, and more competition in the seller’s market will eventually result in lower prices. The central idea to increase construction is a developer incentive that removes federal GST from newly built homes valued below $1.3 million. The plan does not offer any new strategies that specifically address the construction or affordability of rental housing. It does propose selling federal land to private developers to build housing on.

While not specifically a housing policy, the proposed Canada First Reinvestment Tax Cut allows individuals and businesses to sell assets and defer capital gains taxes if the proceeds are reinvested into Canadian businesses, including residential construction. This policy could attract new investment capital to the housing industry.

If the Liberal plan provides carrots to influence civic governments, the Conservative plan uses sticks. Identified “high-cost cities” will be required to increase the number of homes constructed each year by 15 per cent (doubling construction every five years). If they miss these targets, federal funding for infrastructure and transit will be withheld as a punishment. A financial bonus will be provided to cities that exceed housing targets, paid for through the cancellation of the Housing Accelerator Fund. Bill C-356 indicated that the bonus would be capped at only $100 million to be shared by all cities.

This strategy appears to overlook the reality that many factors impacting development are outside of a city’s control, including labour markets, interest rates, tariffs, construction costs, vacancy rates, and overall economic conditions.

The plan will also create a mechanism for Canadians to file complaints about NIMBYism or rejected housing proposals in their cities. When complaints are deemed legitimate by currently undefined criteria, federal infrastructure funding will again be withheld.

The “high-cost cities” identified in Bill C-356 were restricted to municipalities around Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary, so Winnipeg would not be part of these strategies unless this was changed.

The Liberal and Conservative plans both propose spending billions to compensate cities that agree to reduce development fees — charges imposed on residential construction to pay for infrastructure that can significantly drive up the cost of housing. This would unfairly reward cities that impose egregious fees like Toronto and Vancouver, while providing almost nothing to cities that don’t, like Edmonton and Winnipeg. It would seem fairer for the federal government to look at more equitable ways to fund urban infrastructure, like providing a share of the gas tax directly to municipalities.

The Liberal and Conservative plans approach housing affordability in different ways. With residential costs rising in a straight line for two decades, it’s encouraging that all parties have finally recognized the urgency for Canada’s housing crisis to move into the political spotlight.

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinio...hey-recognize-the-need-for-housing-plans
     
     
  #6758  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:30 PM
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Originally Posted by ToxiK View Post
In 1980, Québec elected 74 Liberal MPs out of 75 and we were rewarded by the biggest backstabbing possible: the 1982 Constitution signed without Québec.

More often than none, federal MPs don't represent Québec in Ottawa, but rather Ottawa in Québec.
and having 25 MP's in a backbench party would have changed that?

The only option there was to not have a constitution.

To my eyes, the bloc just whines and complains all the time but they have no influence on issues that impact quebec....if not to be a sovereigntist protest vote, I don't see what Quebecers believe they bring them.
     
     
  #6759  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 2:30 PM
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Nice breakdown Casper.
     
     
  #6760  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2025, 3:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post
It’s highly unlikely, but what happens if we have something like this:
LPC - 160
CPC - 140
BQ - 29
NDP - 7
GP - 2
I think it's going to look more like
176 Liberals
130 CPC
27 BQ
8 NDP
2 Green
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