Canadian Federal Election

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

I have 20yrs in macro finance, business and tech. And one of the best forecasting track records on the web. Thanks though.

Inflation means your DOLLAR buys less. You know, the affordability crisis everyone talks about? Housing? Food?

That's because gov printed $360B of Cov stimulus.

Not because of this nonsense housing shortage narrative that's being pushed. There's no shortage of housing. There's a surplus of dollars.

You actually have no clue.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

So your proposal just transferred government debt to personal balance sheets by financializing it. (But you knew that, all good).

Yeah, that's the idea. There's no magic or cheating possible there: if we want to get rid of our government's debt ("our" debt, collectively), we'll have to pay it ourselves somehow (unless your plan involves defaulting on it?)

So, instead of the Canadian government paying ~$45B per year in interest, if that debt gets transferred to Canadians as individuals, instead Canadians will start paying an extra ~$45B per year in interest directly (and then you can't tax them as much as you used to). It wouldn't change that much in the grand scheme of things.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by casper

Fewer housing in Canada than the G7. Low vacancy rates would suggest a shortage of housing.

Toronto Inventories at 10 year highs by a factor of 2. You sure about that?

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by casper

Bank of Canada stopped quantitative easing in Oct 2021 and since then has been doing the opposite. That is where they "un-print money". So after tightening the money supply for 3 years they switched gears again in January.

Yes. That's why Toronto house prices are down 20% since then, and about to further fall off a cliff in the next 6 months. No new builds required.

(Sorry Casper I thought you were WarrenC12 from your flag pic, less haste intended for you lol)

[FrAnKs]

8 days left. I wonder if the LPC can remain over 172 seats until April 28th.

They are currently at 188 seats according to 338canada by Philippe J. Fournier

Your thoughts?

[casper]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Toronto Inventories at 10 year highs by a factor of 2. You sure about that?

Government (at all levels) over the last 5 years have done quite a bit to create new housing units.

One difficulty is a good chuck of that are units that were designed for airbnb and are not designed to have people live in them full time. But it is what it is.

If this continues we may need to increase immigration.

[Marshsparrow]

The CPC ad with the two old rich white men golfing... major cringe, was that a spoof or a for real advertisement?

[Marshsparrow]

I'm also trying to understand the inability of the CPC and Pierre to release their platform and the costing.

He's had 20+ years as an MP, 2 years as leader and he has been non-stop asking for this election and tomorrow is the last day of advanced polls with one week until election - and still nothing? If they can't get organized around this, imagine what a gong show they'll be as a government.

Carney has been PM for less than 6 weeks and got it out.

[Marshsparrow]

I also don't understand what Pierre was doing in Surrey - he seemed to be in costume today? My socials have things about it being with a terrorist group? Was this an easter celebration?

[BlackDog204]

Well I ended up voting today. The Liberal incumbent is 30 points up, so I know he is going to win. However, there is still work to be done.

I believe we can flip Kildonan-St.Paul (CPC) and Winnipeg Centre (NDP). It will be close, but I am working hard to make it happen. Northern Manitoba is also a toss-up, as Niki Ashton has had that seat for 20 years. In Edmonton almost all ridings are in play. Of the 9 ridings, one NDP and one Liberal are safe. 7 ridings are either toss-ups, or the lead is 5 points or under. I am praying that we paint the town red in the Alberta Capital.

As for Calgary, the south is very Conservative, but there is one safe Liberal riding in the Northeast, which is composed mainly of Muslims and South Asians. Calgary Centre and Calgary Confederation are also in play, as well as a couple others.

It would be amazing to see the Liberals win 10 seats in Alberta. It would send a clear message to the UCP, that they suck.

[Mister F]

In the Liberal platform the first bullet point about Build Canada Homes is this:

• Act as a developer to build affordable housing at scale, including on public lands. BCH will develop and manage projects and partner with builders for the construction phase of projects.

As far as I know no other party is proposing anything like this. It's all meaningless buzzwords and slogans about red tape. The other party leaders aren't serious.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

But of course, the real issue for the tax would be on financial assets... stocks, bonds, crypto, and just the mountains of cash that the ultra wealthy like to sit on top of, or squirrel away in off show bank accounts.

If that wealth is offshore, by definition it’s out of reach of the governments in Ottawa and Fredericton. Not sure why we’re even discussing it

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

The CPC ad with the two old rich white men golfing... major cringe, was that a spoof or a for real advertisement?

Sadly, it is real. It's so tone-deaf, it comes across as unintentionally hilarious. Jenni Byrne is not qualified to work as a City Dogcatcher, let alone as campaign director of a large political party.

https://x.com/CPC_HQ/status/1913688390672752696

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I also don't understand what Pierre was doing in Surrey - he seemed to be in costume today? My socials have things about it being with a terrorist group? Was this an easter celebration?

You need to find new socials because Surrey has Canada's largest Vaisakhi parade. Your socials equating that to terrorist groups is beyond offensive.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Sadly, it is real. It's so tone-deaf, it comes across as unintentionally hilarious. Jenni Byrne is not qualified to work as a City Dogcatcher, let alone as campaign director of a large political party.

https://x.com/CPC_HQ/status/1913688390672752696

I really wonder how she possibly got this job after her mismanagement of the Harper campaign in 2015.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Sadly, it is real. It's so tone-deaf, it comes across as unintentionally hilarious. Jenni Byrne is not qualified to work as a City Dogcatcher, let alone as campaign director of a large political party.

https://x.com/CPC_HQ/status/1913688390672752696

Two boomers concerned about the well being of their children is tone deaf?

Originally Posted by Mister F

In the Liberal platform the first bullet point about Build Canada Homes is this:



As far as I know no other party is proposing anything like this. It's all meaningless buzzwords and slogans about red tape. The other party leaders aren't serious.

More recycled Trudeau policy. "We're going to get the government back into the business of homebuilding" is a line that both Carney and Trudeau have used (although in Trudeau's case, he used the past tense). They have absolutely no credibility.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's what is kinda incredible. The Liberals release their costed platform and take all kinds of crap for it. Nobody else releases anything. And gets no criticism at all. We're incentivizing bad behaviour.

Huh? The NDP release their costed platform and are promising smaller deficits than the LPC.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by theman23

Two boomers concerned about the well being of their children is tone deaf?

They’re really reaching beyond the base with this one…

More recycled Trudeau policy. "We're going to get the government back into the business of homebuilding" is a line that both Carney and Trudeau have used (although in Trudeau's case, he used the past tense). They have absolutely no credibility.

And the career political attack dog turned alt right influencer with no concrete plans is more credible? Mark Carney headed Canada and the UK’s banking systems. Forgive me for feeling more trusting of his ability to stimulate housing growth than a slimy Trump wannabe with slogans to ‘Build the Homes’ with nothing but deregulation and a big stick.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

They’re really reaching beyond the base with this one…



And the career political attack dog turned alt right influencer with no concrete plans is more credible? Mark Carney headed Canada and the UK’s banking systems. Forgive me for feeling more trusting of his ability to stimulate housing growth than a slimy Trump wannabe with slogans to ‘Build the Homes’ with nothing but deregulation and a big stick.

Nonsensical appeal to authority. Carney has no experience with housing policy.

Originally Posted by O-tacular

They’re really reaching beyond the base with this one…

They're trying to go after the LPC's base.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I'm also trying to understand the inability of the CPC and Pierre to release their platform and the costing.

He's had 20+ years as an MP, 2 years as leader and he has been non-stop asking for this election and tomorrow is the last day of advanced polls with one week until election - and still nothing? If they can't get organized around this, imagine what a gong show they'll be as a government.

Carney has been PM for less than 6 weeks and got it out.

Nobody cares at least not people who switch their votes and live in areas that matter. Most of them think about politics 20 minutes a year.

Carney’s platform is an honest accounting which makes it look like an orgg of spending. Some of these voters are seeing this and recoiling away from the Liberals. Polievre’s platform is about the same in terms of deficit size so he benefits from not releasing it.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by theman23

Nonsensical appeal to authority. Carney has no experience with housing policy.

And yet he has the most credible platform in that area.