Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I'm in the same boat. Harper was re-elected, so we're not immune. George W. Bush won a second term, Trump has been elected twice. We're up against a pretty right-wing shift in society.

That ended when Trump started threatening us. Look at Germany as exhibit A. The AfD was enjoying a wave of momentum, polling at 22%. Once Musk interfered in that election, the AfD lost all it's momentum, and ended up at 19.5%.

That's nothing in comparison to Wisconsin.

Once Carney passes a bill, in regards to forgegn ownership of our media, things will change. Hopefully Rebel News and others will fold, while anything owner by Postmedia will be forced to sell to Canadian lower ship, or fold.

[janbe74]

[QUOTE=bodaggin;10413225]LNG Canada is fed by the Coastal Gas Link pipeline, which took 4 long years to approve. Too long. Even after approval, it was plagued by legal challenges and protests.

When we talk "corridors", we're talking a pre-approved swath of land that pipes, rail, roads etc can build on. Pre-approved basically, on a designated route to tidewater. A blank canvas, so to speak. This takes the risk out of building for companies. Same goes for ports.

Of the 11 largest cancelled LNG proposals worldwide, 8 were in Canada. Over 180 million tons per year, cancelled.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1263991/largest-cancelled-lng-terminals-by-capacity-worldwide/

We are strangling our country. We would be the largest LNG producing country worldwide by a factor of 2, if all these projects were approved swiftly.[/QUOTE

Stephen Harper was Prime Minister for nine years and zero LNG projects got built in Canada.
Also, there were zero pipelines built to tide water during that time.

Currently there is three LNG projects under construction in Canada, with a fourth beginning construction this year. There is also a possibility that LNG Phase 2 gets the go ahead.

Do you realize that energy projects need Provincial and Indigenous buy it for the projects to be sucessful?

[kiwi4353]

This is the most important election remember to vote smart.

https://smartvoting.ca/

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Carney Platform to add $225 billion to national debt.

Article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal...rs-adding-225b-to-federal-debt-1.7514272
Platform: https://liberal.ca/cstrong/

Bye bye CAD. This is pure communism. It's utterly insane. After all the wishy washy language, it's the same Liberal nonsense as Trudeau. Top-down, government spending, on complete lunacy. He conned us. The $25B government housing agency is ludicrous. There's not a single mention of the word "pipeline" in his entire platform either. No wonder he waited until after the debates to release it.

Canada might be toast after all.

Alberta is going to absolutely lose it. And rightfully so. This is so bad.

(Pierre's still hasn't been released his platform yet.)

Do you know what pure communism actually is?

The platform is going with the thinking that Trump is trying to kill our economy. We definitely don't want annexation and want to cut ties with whatever Trump is involved with. It's going to have some big costs.

[BlackDog204]

"Carney's costed platform amounts to a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 1.96% in the first year, falling to 1.36% in 2028-29.

The Progressive Conservative governments of Brian Mulroney and Joe Clark never, ever came close to a level that low.'

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Do you know what pure communism actually is?

Nationalizing the housing supply sounds pretty communist to me.

Originally Posted by Loco101

The platform is going with the thinking that Trump is trying to kill our economy. We definitely don't want annexation and want to cut ties with whatever Trump is involved with. It's going to have some big costs.

You don't protect an economy by printing money to waste it. That's why no one can afford food or housing after they printed $360B for covid and blew it.

To surge our economy, approve projects. Build useful corridors. Eliminate American patent recognition. That's $1T+ of GDP right there. The threat is not solely economic either. What's the military plan? Meet NATO spending 4 years after NATO dissolves and we've already been invaded? We're going to build corridors with a $5B fund? I posted a map of roads alone worth ~$100B. The misunderstanding of the situation at hand and how to navigate it is staggering.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

Costal Gas link has capacity for 5 facilities on the scale of LNG Canada. The pipeline is now there but under utilized. Yes, punching a pipeline through two mountain ranges is technically challenging.

Working with local communities that will host the pipeline and terminal is also difficult but its the right thing to do. The idea that a company, especially if its majority foreign owned can come in and bulldoze through a community with out even asking is simply wrong.

To be clear LNG Canada is basically owned by Shell plus some friends that include interests from Japan, Malaysia and China. That guyis where most of the profits from that operation will go. Asking that local communities along the way benefit is not unreasonable.

Woodfibre LNG does not require any special new pipeline capability.

You seem to forget that local communities were consulted yet that didn’t stop a handful of Wet'suwet'en from shutting down the whole country’s rail system when they got their noses out of joint about something.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You seem to forget that local communities were consulted yet that didn’t stop a handful of Wet'suwet'en from shutting down the whole country’s rail system when they got their noses out of joint about something.

Yes they were. The consolation was for the most part positive and there was not conflict.

Within the Wet'suwet'en there was a disagreement on the decision making role of the elected chief and council vrs hereditary chief and council. While that is regrettable that those discussion did not happen before construction started it was not representative of the majority of relationships along that route.

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Nationalizing the housing supply sounds pretty communist to me.

Some housing is owned by government and rented out, most is owned by private individuals or corporations. You will find that in nearly every western country, including the US.

Originally Posted by bodaggin

You don't protect an economy by printing money to waste it. That's why no one can afford food or housing after they printed $360B for covid and blew it.

To surge our economy, approve projects. Build useful corridors. Eliminate American patent recognition. That's $1T+ of GDP right there. The threat is not solely economic either. What's the military plan? Meet NATO spending 4 years after NATO dissolves and we've already been invaded? We're going to build corridors with a $5B fund? I posted a map of roads alone worth ~$100B. The misunderstanding of the situation at hand and how to navigate it is staggering.

I will give you the bad news. The price of oil is low and likely to stay low for the next 4 years. Its going to be so low, that no oil company is going to commit to major capital expenditures.

As for NATO, who says NATO will dissolve. The US will likely leave NATO. Why would Canada or the Europeans leave NATO?

The corridors will need to be private-public partnerships. My guess, is the government will likely assume the regulatory risk with getting it approved. Private industry will be called on to build infrastructure within the corridor. We need to see who is willing to step up on the private sector side.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

This is a microcosm of what I was talking about. I try and be candid about my feelings for a moment and how I've been generally upset over some of the rhetoric indirectly slung my way, and the response I get is "yeah but the other side is wayyy worse, and also here's like 6 paragraphs about why your voting wrong".

I'm tired boss.

I don't put you in the same boat as those guys, at all... you're very informed and have been keeping track of the polling and then some. I'm just simply stating the facts that right wing Canadians are duped by a lot of misinformation that they take as gospel, and they get really riled up about it and share said misinformation with friends on fb, and present it as facts.

Most of the misinformation and conspiracy theories being peddled in this election campaign are coming from the right wing, don't you think? Like, I'd say it's not even close.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Pierre won't release his platform because if you add up everything he's promised it will have much higher debt than the Liberal one.

This guy 20+ years in office, 2 years as leader with non-stop campaigning and one week until election campaign and still no platform and nothing costed... talk about disorganized and thinking we are all stupid.

The CPC has really messed up what should have been their easiest election EVER.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I don't put you in the same boat as those guys, at all... you're very informed and have been keeping track of the polling and then some. I'm just simply stating the facts that right wing Canadians are duped by a lot of misinformation that they take as gospel, and they get really riled up about it and share said misinformation with friends on fb, and present it as facts.

Most of the misinformation and conspiracy theories being peddled in this election campaign are coming from the right wing, don't you think? Like, I'd say it's not even close.

The misinformation and disinformation is either foreign and mostly right-wing.

I woudl like a piece or some analysis on the CPC candidates that can't speak with their local media or show up at their local debates - it's actually astonishing that they are being silenced and "no-shows".

[samne]

Odds are in substantial favour of a Liberal win. If it ends up this way, I just hope it’s a minority. This cabinet history from last 10 years and an unproven Leader absolutely do not deserve a majority mandate.

Polymarket

Who will be next Prime Minister.

Poilievre 24%
Carney 76%

https://polymarket.com/insights/elections/canada

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by casper

I will give you the bad news. The price of oil is low and likely to stay low for the next 4 years. Its going to be so low, that no oil company is going to commit to major capital expenditures.

As for NATO, who says NATO will dissolve. The US will likely leave NATO. Why would Canada or the Europeans leave NATO?

The corridors will need to be private-public partnerships. My guess, is the government will likely assume the regulatory risk with getting it approved. Private industry will be called on to build infrastructure within the corridor. We need to see who is willing to step up on the private sector side.

On NATO dissolving, Merz of Germany is saying. Trump is saying. It's obvious. Neither Carney or Pierre are getting it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ger...longevity-natos-current-form-2025-02-23/

You're right on oil. Peak oil has passed. Nat gas is a different story. It has another 10-15yrs displacing coal. Gas is still selling for $13/mmbtu in Europe, 3x higher than North America. When the war started, we could have been selling at $70/mmbtu. That's 10x higher than spot.

The world is literally begging for our gas, but we won't allow it. The existing Trans-Canada mainline has 2bcf/day of empty capacity to Ontario (equal to one Coastal Gas Link). The pipe is already there! Literally all they need is an LNG plant to convert it to ship to Europe. But GNL Quebec was blocked.

The world is begging for our gas. Industry is begging to build it.

Literally all gov has to do is approve it and let the market do the rest.

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 43.6% (-0.1%), 196 seats
CPC - 38.0% (+0.4%), 122 seats
BLQ - 5.4% (N/C), 19 seats
NDP - 8.3% (-0.3%), 5 seats
GRN - 2.3%, (-0.1%), 1 seat
PPC - 1.7%, (+0.1%), 0 seats

- A little bit of a post debate jump for PP??? It may be too soon to tell.
- On the other hand Jagmeet's antics have done him no good.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Is this 1-3% tax every year? Or one-time?

Recurring = bad. One-time Intervention = some merit.

Canada is in a fiscally desperate situation at $1.3T of debt and $60B deficit. But we have ~$15T of sovereign wealth. A one-time sovereign wealth tax of 10% would raise $1.5T instantly. This would be enough to:

-Wipe the $1.1T debt completely (and their $45B/yr interest payments).
-Fund $200B for military expansion.
-Fund $150B of corridors.
-Fund $50B sovereign wealth fund.

But an intervention this radical would also need to be accompanied by ~$60B of annual spending cuts and an extremely strict "budget surplus law". Barring deficits, forever. Like requiring a referendum with 80% support to ever run a deficit again. This plan would truly fix Canada's problems for good, but no politician has the stones to propose something this bold.

Where is the bulk of that $15T in sovereign wealth? I would imagine a huge chunk of it is paper wealth in the form of home equity for middle class people over 40. So what, we are all supposed to take out a 2nd mortgage of 10% of of the value of our homes to pay a wealth tax? Where is the money for that going to come from because I doubt the banks can even fund that. Oh I get it, the government can go into more debt to loan us the money we get to give the government to pay off the old debt.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 43.6% (-0.1%), 196 seats
CPC - 38.0% (+0.4%), 122 seats
BLQ - 5.4% (N/C), 19 seats
NDP - 8.3% (-0.3%), 5 seats
GRN - 2.3%, (-0.1%), 1 seat
PPC - 1.7%, (+0.1%), 0 seats

- A little bit of a post debate jump for PP??? It may be too soon to tell.
- On the other hand Jagmeet's antics have done him no good.

Whatever the polls show, you can count on the media suggesting a tightening race in the days leading up to election day. It's what they do.

[casper]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

On NATO dissolving, Merz of Germany is saying. Trump is saying. It's obvious. Neither Carney or Pierre are getting it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ger...longevity-natos-current-form-2025-02-23/

I think Carney gets it.

Merz is saying he does not see NATO continuing in its current form with the US. When is projecting is there is a pan-European force similar to NATO without the US. Carney has talked to France, UK, EU and Germany about joint security and intelligence sharing.

I think it is clear that is the path we are heading down. Will it still be called NATO or will it have a new name is to be determined.

Originally Posted by bodaggin

You're right on oil. Peak oil has passed. Nat gas is a different story. It has another 10-15yrs displacing coal. Gas is still selling for $13/mmbtu in Europe, 3x higher than North America. When the war started, we could have been selling at $70/mmbtu. That's 10x higher than spot.

The world is literally begging for our gas, but we won't allow it. The existing Trans-Canada mainline has 2bcf/day of empty capacity to Ontario (equal to one Coastal Gas Link). The pipe is already there! Literally all they need is an LNG plant to convert it to ship to Europe. But GNL Quebec was blocked.

The world is begging for our gas. Industry is begging to build it.

Literally all gov has to do is approve it and let the market do the rest.

The proponent of GNL can address the greenhouse gas emissions concern by using power off the grid to run their operations.

That is what happens in BC, LNG Canada is powered from hydro electricity thanks in part to BC Hydro Site-C.

The rest of the concerns are harder to address but if they work with the communities they should be able to come to an arrangement.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Where is the bulk of that $15T in sovereign wealth? I would imagine a huge chunk of it is paper wealth in the form of home equity for middle class people over 40. So what, we are all supposed to take out a 2nd mortgage of 10% of of the value of our homes to pay a wealth tax? Where is the money for that going to come from because I doubt the banks can even fund that. Oh I get it, the government can go into more debt to loan us the money we get to give the government to pay off the old debt.

Good point about the fixed wealth tied up in real estate.

That's the thing about "wealth." A lot of it is arbitrary, and isn't realized until it is sold. You may have a Vermeer hanging in your living room, but, how much is it actually worth? No one knows until it is actually sold! What are we supposed to do? Are we to have all our possessions assessed for their value on an annual basis so that their value can be estimated for taxation purposes??? What if the assessment is $1.5M, but, when we sell it the next year, the selling price is only $1.3M. What happens then? Do you apply for a tax refund???

Just imagine the confusion and complexity of figuring this out.

Also, a wealth tax is really a form of double taxation. You made these purchases with after tax income after all. Do you really want this?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Carney Platform to add $225 billion to national debt.

Article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal...rs-adding-225b-to-federal-debt-1.7514272
Platform: https://liberal.ca/cstrong/

Bye bye CAD. This is pure communism. It's utterly insane. After all the wishy washy language, it's the same Liberal nonsense as Trudeau. Top-down, government spending, on complete lunacy. He conned us. The $25B government housing agency is ludicrous. There's not a single mention of the word "pipeline" in his entire platform either. No wonder he waited until after the debates to release it.

Canada might be toast after all.

Alberta is going to absolutely lose it. And rightfully so. This is so bad.

(Pierre's still hasn't been released his platform yet.)

This is coming from the guy who thinks we should spend several hundred billion dollars turning Canada into North Korea.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Takeoff

We are all at fault for allowing parties to fake their numbers/not release them and letting them get away without consequences.

That's what is kinda incredible. The Liberals release their costed platform and take all kinds of crap for it. Nobody else releases anything. And gets no criticism at all. We're incentivizing bad behaviour.