Canadian Federal Election - Page 287

elly63 · #**5721** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 1:49 PM**

As always, before I post a video of this type, I ask people to actually watch before posting their preconceived biased opinion. Afterwards you have every right to confirm or tear apart what was actually said and not what you think will be said. At least have the honesty to do that.

• Video Link

lio45 · #**5722** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 1:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Considering Canadians don't seem to tolerate failing party leaders; especially in the Big 2 parties;

I'm trying to recall the last time a Big 2 party leader survived defeat and I don't think it's happened in my lifetime.

Chretien - out
Martin - out
Dion - out
Iggy - out
JT - out even before actually losing
Harper - out
Scheer - out
O'Toole - out
PP - betting anything he's out immediately if he loses.

I'd correct something you said though, I don't think it's "Canadians" who don't tolerate losing leaders, it's the parties' organizations that don't. They want to win and have zero patience for leaders who don't.

FrankieFlowerpot · #**5723** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 2:08 PM**

The WEF again

whatnext · #**5724** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 2:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

I'm trying to recall the last time a Big 2 party leader survived defeat and I don't think it's happened in my lifetime.

Chretien - out
Martin - out
Dion - out
Iggy - out
JT - out even before actually losing
Harper - out
Scheer - out
O'Toole - out
PP - betting anything he's out immediately if he loses.

I'd correct something you said though, I don't think it's "Canadians" who don't tolerate losing leaders, it's the parties' organizations that don't. They want to win and have zero patience for leaders who don't.

Chrétien didn’t lose an election…

travis3000 · #**5725** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 2:54 PM**

New Pollara Poll
April 8th-13th

LPC= 44%
CPC= 36%
NDP= 9%

some interesting demographics on this poll with respect to gender divide.

-CPC are leading men under 50 years old by 10 points.
-LPC lead 50+ men by 2 points.
-LPC lead women under 50 years old by 17 points
-LPC lead women over 50 by 22 points.

Compare this same question to Pollara's poll in December under Trudeau,

-Carney has GAINED 17 points with men under 50 years old
-Carney has GAINED 17 points with men over 50
-Carney has GAINED 31 points with women under 50 years old
-Carney has GAINED 22 points with women over 50

WarrenC12 · #**5726** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Takeoff

“Don’t interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake.” All the Liberals need to do is stay out of it. How hard is it to do that?

Exactly! Now they are exposing themselves.

WarrenC12 · #**5727** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau

But seriously folks...

Carney disturbs me for too many reasons to mention, and the Liberals really should be kicked out on their fugging keisters for what they've done to this country over the past ten years, but if the story of Carney cleverly manipulating the bond market, making Trump wake up and take notice, really is true, then I will grudgingly admit that he's probably the right man for the job at the present moment.

That's a cop out, list a few at least.

Dengler Avenue · #**5728** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:25 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Pollara Poll
April 8th-13th

LPC= 44%
CPC= 36%
NDP= 9%

some interesting demographics on this poll with respect to gender divide.

-CPC are leading men under 50 years old by 10 points.
-LPC lead 50+ men by 2 points.
-LPC lead women under 50 years old by 17 points
-LPC lead women over 50 by 22 points.

Compare this same question to Pollara's poll in December under Trudeau,

-Carney has GAINED 17 points with men under 50 years old
-Carney has GAINED 17 points with men over 50
-Carney has GAINED 31 points with women under 50 years old
-Carney has GAINED 22 points with women over 50

At least Carney may be winning back some people from Generation Screwed.

lio45 · #**5729** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Chrétien didn’t lose an election…

True, but Chrétien (and Mulroney and JT) are still all in the category "gone because they were likely going to lose". It's kind of the same idea. After a decade in power, if Chrétien had lost to Harper, he wouldn't have been able to stay in the saddle to have another try at beating Harper in the following election.

When's the last time a Big 2 party leader lost and stayed in charge of his party? PET with his Joe Clark intermission, 1980. Nearly half a century ago!

Takeoff · #**5730** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

I'm trying to recall the last time a Big 2 party leader survived defeat and I don't think it's happened in my lifetime.

Chretien - out
Martin - out
Dion - out
Iggy - out
JT - out even before actually losing
Harper - out
Scheer - out
O'Toole - out
PP - betting anything he's out immediately if he loses.

I'd correct something you said though, I don't think it's "Canadians" who don't tolerate losing leaders, it's the parties' organizations that don't. They want to win and have zero patience for leaders who don't.

Harper actually lost 2 elections also so it’s not without precedent. Especially if you are as popular with your base as PP is.

lio45 · #**5731** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Takeoff

Harper actually lost 2 elections also so it’s not without precedent. Especially if you are as popular with your base as PP is.

No he didn't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wikipedia

On March 20, 2004, former Alliance leader Stephen Harper was elected as leader of the party with MacKay serving as deputy leader.

The new Conservative Party formed the Canadian government on February 6, 2006, and won two additional elections (2008 and 2011) under the leadership of Stephen Harper; of these, the 2006 and 2008 votes resulted in the party governing only as a minority; only in 2011 was a majority mandate achieved. The party was defeated in 2015, by the Liberals, and became the official opposition party in the House of Commons.

Harper became PM on his first attempt, and was out as soon as he lost (2015).

lio45 · #**5732** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Takeoff

Harper actually lost 2 elections also so it’s not without precedent. Especially if you are as popular with your base as PP is.

That would actually be a great reason for the Tories to dump PP: super popular with "the base", yet still loses. Which makes it incredibly obvious that reaching beyond that base is mandatory, if they want to win eventually.

YOWetal · #**5733** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by elly63

Like Carney, Ford is a man of the moment and for both four years is a long time. I don't see either being as relevant then. I don't think people would look upon Ford's then French as kindly as they do Carney's now

I don't know how well she is faring as an MPP but someone like Caroline Mulroney might fit the bill by then. A centrist woman could do very well.

The Conservative leadership campaign is likely to launch by the end of this year at least unofficially so he is very much likely to be the man of the moment still. Anyone who leads the Conservatives into the 2029 election would seem have at least even odds of winning a 2029 election. Even an economic boom as we were in the midst of in 2006 won't get rid of the fatigue of 14 years of one party rule.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit. Mainstreet poll had Conservatives up 44-42. That must mean a clear Con lead in Ontario so a French disastrous debate bringing the Bloc back and that could be a narrow Con win. 145 to 135 or something like that.

Ozabald · #**5734** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

True, but Chrétien (and Mulroney and JT) are still all in the category "gone because they were likely going to lose". It's kind of the same idea. After a decade in power, if Chrétien had lost to Harper, he wouldn't have been able to stay in the saddle to have another try at beating Harper in the following election.

When's the last time a Big 2 party leader lost and stayed in charge of his party? PET with his Joe Clark intermission, 1980. Nearly half a century ago!

John Turner. Lost both the 1984 and 1988 elections as Liberal Leader.

travis3000 · #**5735** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:53 PM**

New Pallas Data
April 12th

LPC= 45%
CPC= 37%
NDP= 9%

LPC leads Atlantic by 26, Quebec by 20, Ontario by 9, BC by 12.

On a seat map this one is a 203 LPC majority.

lio45 · #**5736** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 3:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozabald

John Turner. Lost both the 1984 and 1988 elections as Liberal Leader.

Thanks! So the very last case of a Big Two party leader surviving a defeat was 41 years ago.

Actually I could see Carney being the first one in 40+ years if PP ends up winning, seeing as the LPC was totally toxic before he showed up, and headed for catastrophic defeat, and Carney turned things around, and he's also very fresh (just got elected!) and it would be dumb to not let him be Opposition Leader for a while if he wants.

jonny24 · #**5737** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 4:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by elly63

As always, before I post a video of this type, I ask people to actually watch before posting their preconceived biased opinion. Afterwards you have every right to confirm or tear apart what was actually said and not what you think will be said. At least have the honesty to do that.

• Video Link

As always, I'm not watching random youtube videos, without someone giving a very good reason that I should go find my headphones / mess up my YT algorithm with political content.

Starting who the video is by - if it's from someone actually consequential, I'd consider it. Some random youtuber? Not likely.

elly63 · #**5738** Posted **Apr 14, 2025, 4:24 PM**

When I post videos it's because of the guest. I agree, I could care less about random left/right partisan hosts, one is as bad as the other. I don't necessarily endorse the message in the videos either. The guests are providing a point of view that IMO should be heard. Whether anyone here wants to watch it or not is up to them, I'm just the messenger.