Canadian Federal Election

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 44.3%, 198 seats
CPC - 37.5%, 121 seats
BLQ - 5.2%, 18 seats
NDP - 8.3%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.3%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.7%, 0 seats

- Liberal support has plateaued, and actually softened very slightly.
- Conservative support has stabilized, presumably at their core base.

I suspect there will be very little movement carrying forward, save for a major gaffe. The French debate is probably the most important upcoming event.

[travis3000]

^ I agree. Keep in mind back in early January all the poll trackers were showing the CPC around 45/46%, the LPC down at 20% essentially tied with the NDP which was around 18-19.

Four months later, the CPC has dropped 7-8 points, the NDP has dropped 10 points. The Liberals have surged from 20% to 44%.

Debates will be essential. Remember in 2021, the LPC was actually flirting with a majority but then the French debate sent the francophones back into the arms of the Bloc, and the LPC ended up with a minority mandate.

[Hecate]

The debates will be what decides this election, if Pierre and the other leaders can make carney snap, it’ll be done for the liberals. I can see jagmeet going after him hardcore along with Pierre and Blanchette. I don’t think it’ll take much for him to get overwhelmed and exasperated. You can see it in his responses to some of the questions he’s been asked about his past.

I think we’ll either end up with a conservative or liberal minority.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Hecate

The debates will be what decides this election, if Pierre and the other leaders can make carney snap, it’ll be done for the liberals. I can see jagmeet going after him hardcore along with Pierre and Blanchette. I don’t think it’ll take much for him to get overwhelmed and exasperated. You can see it in his responses to some of the questions he’s been asked about his past.

I think we’ll either end up with a conservative or liberal minority.

Knowing all this you don't think he can act above the fray for 90 minutes?

"Gentlemen gentlemen our struggle is not with each other but with an existential threat coming from the United States."

"Honestly you sound like Trump with that kind of aggressive language. We are all Canadians here."

"I do have private sector experience and some business decisions were made. I put the interests of the company first as was my obligation. Now as Prime Minister I will put the interests of Canada first."

It's not hard when all you have to avoid is a fatal gaffe.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Hecate

The debates will be what decides this election, if Pierre and the other leaders can make carney snap, it’ll be done for the liberals. I can see jagmeet going after him hardcore along with Pierre and Blanchette. I don’t think it’ll take much for him to get overwhelmed and exasperated. You can see it in his responses to some of the questions he’s been asked about his past.

I think we’ll either end up with a conservative or liberal minority.

Given how devoid of substance these "debates" are, that's a scary thought.

[Hecate]

Look how he responded to Barton, or other reporters when asked stuff he doesn’t want to answer. His eyebrows start twitching, he purses his lips, the timbre in his voice changes.

It’s been reported from many sources both left and right the guy has a temper.

This could very easily overwhelm him.

Then the tiktoks begin and social media will have a field day.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Look how he responded to Barton, or other reporters when asked stuff he doesn’t want to answer. His eyebrows start twitching, he purses his lips, the timbre in his voice changes.

It’s been reported from many sources both left and right the guy has a temper.

This could very easily overwhelm him.

Then the tiktoks begin and social media will have a field day.

Hardly the first PM with a temper. He doesn't seem like the sort who is easily "overwhelmed". Everybody else piling on him could backfire by generating sympathy.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Hardly the first PM with a temper. He doesn't seem like the sort who is easily "overwhelmed". Everybody else piling on him could backfire by generating sympathy.

I suppose it could, but That would all depend on the manner in which he answers.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Look how he responded to Barton, or other reporters when asked stuff he doesn’t want to answer. His eyebrows start twitching, he purses his lips, the timbre in his voice changes.

It’s been reported from many sources both left and right the guy has a temper.

This could very easily overwhelm him.

Then the tiktoks begin and social media will have a field day.

Yes he's pretty horrible at answering aggressive questions. It is also tricky to find the right balance but mostly he can ignore attacks and come out of the debate in a draw. He doesn't need to win.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Hecate

The debates will be what decides this election, if Pierre and the other leaders can make carney snap, it’ll be done for the liberals. I can see jagmeet going after him hardcore along with Pierre and Blanchette. I don’t think it’ll take much for him to get overwhelmed and exasperated. You can see it in his responses to some of the questions he’s been asked about his past.

I think we’ll either end up with a conservative or liberal minority.

I'm not sure Carney has the ability to snap. The dude pretty much personifies the reserved calmness and politeness that Canadians are famous for. Not to say he isn't capable of landing some zingers. From everything I've seen of him so far, especially his appearance on the Daily Show, and his more impromptu moments with reporters, and especially the Nardwuar interview (LOL).

I think Carney is highly capable of thinking on the fly, while maintaining his mostly chill, charming, humorous, and intelligent personality.


As for the French debate, I'm pretty sure he's got a lot of one liners ready, and will be sticking to a pretty basic formula.

• Video Link

I think Mr. Carney may be wise to give the Liberal premier of New Brunswick, Susan Holt, a call, if he hasn't already. She's an anglophone with exceptional French, and I think she could really give him some pointers and help him prepare for the French debate.

Youtube's auto-translate subtitles have made leaps and bounds in recent years, so I'm actually quite looking forward to watching the French debate this year with subtitles on youtube. I'm forget if CBC shows the the French Language debate dubbed or not... it's always interesting to find out what the leaders say different in the two debates. Sometimes there's some pretty substantial or even shocking differences between what is said or promised in English and French debates.

I'm not sure how quickly Carney will be able to think on the fly in French, but he seems to have a much better grasp and comprehension of the French language than many are trying to say. I think Carney is going to mainly stick to the same message in both debates, and it will be Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Blanchet that might say some shockingly different things between French and English debates.


It's funny... I've never seen so many Western Canadians upset about a PM's French language proficiency. I wonder why that is.

According to the polls, seems Carney's "comme ci comme ça" French it's not much of an issue with Quebec voters.

• Video Link

and it seems especially not be an issue with Francophone voters in Greater Montreal.

[Marshsparrow]

Tout le Monde en Parle this Sunday will have both Carney and Poilievre - this will be a good one to watch...

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/tele/tout-le-monde-en-parle/site/episodes/1063973/13-avril-2025

As for the debates I am pretty certain the Carney camp have been practicing and have the zinger responses scripted... Pierre coming across nice and smiley - no one is buying it, polls show ppl think he is phoney.

I wonder how the recent Matt Gaetz Pierre endorsement could go down or his quotes from Jones, Peterson and Musk / could be used against him.

[elly63]

Can we all please all get over his French or lack thereof. Nobody cares and the leftist media surely isn't going to point out any problems. The people of Quebec don't care and that's really all that matters.

I'd be looking to pin him down on things like pipelines in Quebec etc, what are you going to do about Western disaffection?

[elly63]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I wonder how the recent Matt Gaetz Pierre endorsement could go down or his quotes from Jones, Peterson and Musk / could be used against him.

Aside from Musk the average Canadian voter who isn't partisan probably has no idea who they are.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Tout le Monde en Parle this Sunday will have both Carney and Poilievre - this will be a good one to watch...

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/tele/tout-le-monde-en-parle/site/episodes/1063973/13-avril-2025

As for the debates I am pretty certain the Carney camp have been practicing and have the zinger responses scripted... Pierre coming across nice and smiley - no one is buying it, polls show ppl think he is phoney.

I wonder how the recent Matt Gaetz Pierre endorsement could go down or his quotes from Jones, Peterson and Musk / could be used against him.

To quote a uni friend from out west that messaged me today:

there is talk of “PP” going to the Joe Rogan podcast and you know what that means? Game over

I think he may be right that an appearance on Joe Rogan could be "Game Over"

But it's probably not the "Game Over" he is thinking of.

Does anyone really think an appearance on Joe Rogan will help him? It's not exactly going to help him get the support from boomers that he needs to even have a shot at a minority. I think such an appearance would mostly blow up in his face, just like the one with Peterson already has. 😅

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by elly63

Can we all please all get over his French or lack thereof. Nobody cares and the leftist media surely isn't going to point out any problems. The people of Quebec don't care and that's really all that matters.

I'd be looking to pin him down on things like pipelines in Quebec etc, what are you going to do about Western disaffection?

It really seems the only people who have a "problem with his French" are hardcore BQ supporters, and hardcore CPC supporters both inside an outside of Quebec. Pretty clearly, he's got a French language skill that exceeds what Harper brought to the table in 2006.

Prime Minister Carney has made multiple appearances in the French Canadian news media , including this recent leaders showcase on Radio Canada (below) And as Marshsparrow posted, he'll be "Tout le Monde en Parle" this Sunday on Radio Canada. For a guy who "can't speak French well", he's certainly brave making all these long form appearances on French political talk shows.

• Video Link

Here's a link to all 5 party leaders on Radio Canada's "5 leaders, One Election" coverage. As well as Carney's segment with English dubs.

This was actually a pretty interesting watch, made possible by auto-translated English subtitles, and he seemed to do a pretty good job. He's clearly got a far better grasp on the French language than the vast, vast majority of Anglophone Canadians. Plus, he is a Western Canadian... I think a lot of Quebecers take that into account, and if this was a normal election, they'd probably give him a lot more leeway in terms of their expectations for his French compared to if he had grown up in Montreal, Ottawa, or Nouveau Brunswick.

However, this isn't a normal election, not in the slightest... so it's really not much of an issue, and the polls reflect that. Will be interesting to see if Poilievre, Blanchet, Singh, or Pedneault to try make it an issue in the debates. 🤔

Can't wait to hear what our French speaking forumers think post debate!

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Hecate

The debates will be what decides this election, if Pierre and the other leaders can make carney snap, it’ll be done for the liberals. I can see jagmeet going after him hardcore along with Pierre and Blanchette. I don’t think it’ll take much for him to get overwhelmed and exasperated. You can see it in his responses to some of the questions he’s been asked about his past.

I think we’ll either end up with a conservative or liberal minority.

Disagree. Voters have made up their minds already.
The only further sway would be a Bill Clinton-esque zinger "It's the economy, stupid"
Most Canadians won't even watch the debate. It's not 1980 with 6 channels on TV (or whatever) and no Internet, streaming services and dozens of other distractions.

Roughly 31-38% of eligible voters don't even bother to exercise their civil right (I consider it a duty to vote). I'd be pleasantly surprised if the turnout for this election was over 65%!

[Djeffery]

The only thing I'm interested in with the debate, especially the French one, is how big a deal the Conservatives all of a sudden make about how well a PM needs to speak fluent French, given their most recent party PM who wasn't exactly great at it. All Carney needs to do is copy Doug Ford in the last 2 elections. Smile, take in the crap and then say whatever fluff you want and don't even answer them. Let the others start turning on themselves.

Also seems the latest MAGA-style thing the CPC is copying is the too big to rig thing. Already trying to plant the seeds that the election results will be fake. A co-worker went to the Pierre rally in Kitchener the other night, said he had to walk a mile to get to it. Said "I don't buy the polls, Trump was supposed to lose in 2016 too. With all those people showing up, if he doesn't win, something is going on". Same crap we heard down south in 2020.

As for PP going on Rogan, I might actually listen to that. I don't listen now but I did hear Rogan's comments about not coming to Canada for the UFC. I would love to hear PP defending Canada to him, if he can muster the fortitude. Not sure what PP would gain by going on there though. Add to the margin of victory in Alberta and Saskatchewan? Well, if that makes him feel better I guess.

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

To quote a uni friend from out west that messaged me today:



I think he may be right that an appearance on Joe Rogan could be "Game Over"

But it's probably not the "Game Over" he is thinking of.

Does anyone really think an appearance on Joe Rogan will help him? It's not exactly going to help him get the support from boomers that he needs to even have a shot at a minority. I think such an appearance would mostly blow up in his face, just like the one with Peterson already has. 😅

All this will do is convince the people that aren’t voting for him to show up and vote Carney, and have the conservative base make sure to come out and vote him. It doesn’t hurt him necessarily but it for sure doesn’t help him, he continually misses out on the point that the people you need to vote for you are urbanites in the metro areas of Canada, they won’t be listening to Rogan unless it’s a sound bite of him trashing Canada that ends up on the news.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Disagree. Voters have made up their minds already.
The only further sway would be a Bill Clinton-esque zinger "It's the economy, stupid"
Most Canadians won't even watch the debate. It's not 1980 with 6 channels on TV (or whatever) and no Internet, streaming services and dozens of other distractions.

Roughly 31-38% of eligible voters don't even bother to exercise their civil right (I consider it a duty to vote). I'd be pleasantly surprised if the turnout for this election was over 65%!

I'm not old enough to remember the last time the debates were the deciding factor in a Canadian Federal Election... perhaps some of the older, more experienced posters can weigh in on which election was the last one where the debates had a sizeable impact on the electoral outcome. I remember Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe having some great zingers, and even being considered the winners of some debates, but obviously neither of their debate performances impacted the electoral income enough to form government.

Wait, did Bill Clinton actually say that in the debates? I thought it was just a famous James Carville quote from 1992?

The best Presidential debates zingers i can actually remember are these two, both by Obama:

• Video Link

• Video Link

The second one is pretty face palm inducing in the context of Russia's flagrant, reprehensible actions since then... but damn, did that sound-byte ever play well at the time. 😅

The first one is pretty relevant to the state of the Canadian Navy though, but more so the point that Mitt Romney was trying to make. Just goes to show though, debates are often more about how something is said, rather than what is actually said or what is the truth. Moreover, it really shows the difference between what is considered a zinger at the time, and what history has to say later.

This exchange between Turner and Mulroney has turned into a bit of zinger, 40 years later, in the context of the current US-Canada trade crisis:

• Video Link

but, at the time, this was considered the big zinger of the debate.

Can't find Jack Layton's debate zinger from 2011 on youtube, just the entire debate.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Disagree. Voters have made up their minds already.
The only further sway would be a Bill Clinton-esque zinger "It's the economy, stupid"
Most Canadians won't even watch the debate. It's not 1980 with 6 channels on TV (or whatever) and no Internet, streaming services and dozens of other distractions.

Yeah barring some massive unforeseen blowout (very unlikely) I can't see the debates making much of a difference. While I usually tune in to the debates I'm also not really sold on them as a deciding factor - it's a skill to be sure but not necessarily reflective of actually competency.