Canadian Federal Election

[elly63]

Have we gone back to the status quo in regards to the tariffs? Is Pierre back in the race?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by elly63

Have we gone back to the status quo in regards to the tariffs? Is Pierre back in the race?

Your meaning is not clear.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Sincerity and seriousness about any topic are hard for PP, due to his communication style and the reputation he has created. I don't know if it reflects him personally, but it's who he is publicly.

I have an old junior high teacher on FB who knew Pierre growing up. He doesn't trust him at all. He said he's a smart guy and that there's no way he believes the conspiracy theories he's peddling. He's nothing but a partisan demagogue who will do or say anything to get into power.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Canadian voters are better educated, less tribal and more willing to consider the issues of the day when deciding who to vote for.

And, thank God for a multi-party parliamentary democracy rather than a presidential republic!!!!!

Nothing demonstrates how different Canadians are from Americans than this 20 pt shift for the a Liberals in 3 months. Trump could say he loves Al Qaeda and the polls might move 2-3 percent. Americans are ridiculously polarized.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by elly63

Have we gone back to the status quo in regards to the tariffs?

Go check the news and an After-Hours stock chart.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I kind of feel sorry for PP and the Tories. Clearly they suffered a loss when Trudeau finally stepped down but their message has basically remained on point. What they, nor anyone else, saw coming was Trump and his ridiculous tariffs and open threats against our sovereignty. Some of his policies were questionable but his drop in the polls has little to do with him or the Tories in general.

Conversely, I have absolutely NO empathy for the NDP. Unlike the Tories, their plunging in support and soon to be massacre in the election is completely self-inflicted. By last fall they had a potential to double their seat count and make some real inroads in the GTA & on Montreal Island. The Tories were set to win a super majority but nothing was going to stop that. They, supposedly, ripped up their agreement with the Liberals and Singh stated openly that the Liberals can no longer be trusted. So what does he do?......he keeps backing them anyway even though he had several occasions to vote with the Tories and Bloc to bring down the government. They could have struck while the iron was hot but choose not to all so Singh could get his pension. Now the NDP are paying a very heavy price for their lack of vision and it's a price they justly deserve.

I agree that Trump's threats are what reversed the Cons fortunes, but disagree that Pierre has nothing to do with his sinking ship. He's done nothing to pivot, or renounce traitorous actions by Danielle Smith. He's also barely registered a blip of opposition to Trump. His only opponent is the ghost of PM JT and the Liberal party and carbon tax. He represents the very worst of populist, MAGA style politics. He's nothing but a divider and an attack dog. Not a steady leader that is needed in a time of crisis such as this.

As for Singh, I find the character assassination of him to come predominantly from Conservatives. Contrary to PP he didn't get a pension at the age of 30 and he's hardly only in it for that purpose. People can shit on him all they want but the fact is he got universal dental care passed, helped get emergency money to struggling Canadians during Covid and also helped push $10 per day childcare. He miscalculated pulling the plug on Trudeau when he did as Trump's bluster has pushed progressive voters to rally against the MAGA aligned cpc.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I still think CPC has a shot in this election. I've been going over the data and the GTA seems competitive. Mainstreet and Ipsos both have a tie in the 905. Other firms are showing a larger LPC lead in the GTA, but it goes to show this isn't case closed yet.

I've done a few model runs where the CPC has a shot at minority status with 155-165 seats. 10 seats in Atlantic Canada, 15 seats in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 56 seats in the Prairies, and 22 seats in BC. Voila, you have a strong CPC minority at 160+ seats. A small shift in the polls could make this a reality.

I still think the LPC have the upper hand, but PP is doing better today with his anti Trump rhetoric, and Carney is great when his Prime Minister hat is on, but i'll be honest he's a pretty boring/awkward campaigner who seems quite uncomfortable with the media. We know PP hates the media since he banned them off his plane and only takes 5 pre screened questions. So he's not better by any means.

But my point here is that I truly believe this race is not a foregone conclusion. It would not surprise me if the CPC pull off a steal.

I will be surprised if it's an LPC majority to be honest. I think we're in between Liberal minority and Conservative majority. The debates will determine all. Particularly how well Singh and Blanchet do at the debates. Best debate strategy for Poilievre would be to just yield his time to those two. Good thing for the Liberals that Poilievre could never be that generous.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I will be surprised if it's an LPC majority to be honest. I think we're in between Liberal minority and Conservative majority. The debates will determine all. Particularly how well Singh and Blanchet do at the debates. Best debate strategy for Poilievre would be to just yield his time to those two. Good thing for the Liberals that Poilievre could never be that generous.

Conservative majority???

The party is going through a civil war right now. They are a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off. This has been widely reported for the last week by sitting MP's and party insiders, speaking with the condition of anonymity. When the Conservatives actually lose seats, there will be a mutiny and a bloodbath, within the Conservative Party. There is even a chance the party may split in two, if Poilievre, Byrne, and the rest of the inner circle refuse to resign.

Debates are not the be-all and end-all they once were, due to social media, and especially the situation occurring south of the border. There is zero chance Poilievre will not try to dominate the debate, using negative politics." He will also go on about secondary issues, like the carbon tax, etc, since his campaign manager is giving him such shiitty advice.

I actually think that Carney can win the debate, going on a "we must set aside our differences to counter the US, in the trade war. Poilievre then will attack Carney, and Canadians will get the impression that Poilievre is divisive and negative, which will further sink him in the polls. The Conservative train-wreck campaign has become so predictable.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Conservative majority???

Yes. As pointed out, the difference between LPC and CPC isn't huge. And if the NDP and BQ surge even a few points, the LPC voter efficiency will work against them to cost them a ton of seats. That's a Conservative minority. If those voters go to the Conservatives that could well mean a Conservative majority.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yes. As pointed out, the difference between LPC and CPC isn't huge. And if the NDP and BQ surge even a few points, the LPC voter efficiency will work against them to cost them a ton of seats. That's a Conservative minority. If those voters go to the Conservatives that could well mean a Conservative majority.

I continue to believe that a Conservative minority, beholden to the Bloc, would be the worst possible outcome of the election.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

He miscalculated pulling the plug on Trudeau when he did as Trump's bluster has pushed progressive voters to rally against the MAGA aligned cpc.

How is this a miscalculation though? He could have pulled the plug and been decimated in an October election super majority (whatever that term means but many keep using it) for the CPC and having no sway whatsoever, to now either being decimated by a Liberal majority or possibly winning a balance of power in a Liberal minority. Tories were pissed that he kept propping up the Liberals but it wasn't Singh's job to make Pierre PM. I think had Carney let Parliament resume last week that Singh would have continued to prop the government up.

[kiwi4353]

Just wondering will these new Trump tariffs lead to a recession?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yes. As pointed out, the difference between LPC and CPC isn't huge. And if the NDP and BQ surge even a few points, the LPC voter efficiency will work against them to cost them a ton of seats. That's a Conservative minority. If those voters go to the Conservatives that could well mean a Conservative majority.

I can so certain that this will not happen, that if the Conservatives win a majority, I will delete my account.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by kiwi4353

Just wondering will these new Trump tariffs lead to a recession?

A recession is being optimistic. It's likely to cause a great depression. not seen since the last time the US implemented tariffs after the stock market crash of 1929.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by kiwi4353

Just wondering will these new Trump tariffs lead to a recession?

US was already forecasting a recession before these latest tariffs. This only makes it worse.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I continue to believe that a Conservative minority, beholden to the Bloc, would be the worst possible outcome of the election.

To me, the only thing worse than this possibility is a Conservative Majority.

[Hackslack]

Mark Carney’s Brookfield nears $9 billion-plus deal for US Colonial Pipeline, while he refuses to repeal Bill C-69….

Why does he insist on Canada’s energy sector continue to be handcuffed to the USA. lol

Carney is a Trump bootlicker.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Mark Carney’s Brookfield nears $9 billion-plus deal for US Colonial Pipeline, while he refuses to repeal Bill C-69….

Why does he insist on Canada’s energy sector continue to be handcuffed to the USA. lol

Carney is a Trump bootlicker.

"Mark Carney's Brookfield"? Try to keep up.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I completely agree.

The Tories have really only dipped about 3 to 4% since the Liberal surge. The Liberals have gained due to them taking away NDP support, not Tory. This exemplifies how Tory support is rock solid while the Liberals far less so. This new support is from shifts from one party to the other but they could easily change their minds before the election.

I also agree that Carney is not a good communicator. When he speaks he does so with little fortitude looking like he is still talking to a bunch of sedate bankers. He is no orator. PP, on the other hand speaks clearly and with conviction. PP is also very quick on his feet which is why he was such a good Opposition Leader. Conversely, Carney when asked questions by the media, looks uncomfortable, unsure, and even somewhat annoyed when pressed.

Many of those key swing voters don't make up their minds until after the debates and due to the reasons above, PP has the personality and skills to win them back while making Carney look stale and uncertain. The French debate will be even worse.

As it stands right now, the Liberals do have the lead but polls won't really foresee the outcome until after the debates. Anyone who thinks this election is over and the Liberals are bound for a majority are getting WAY ahead of themselves. The Tories are still very much in the running for a majority gov't.

This is due to political experience. PP has been doing this his entire life. Carney only about 2 months haha. And it shows. But the irony is: Carney is a much smarter guy. He knows economics inside out, and would probably be better suited for this specific time. PP talks a good game but he's an empty suit.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yes. As pointed out, the difference between LPC and CPC isn't huge. And if the NDP and BQ surge even a few points, the LPC voter efficiency will work against them to cost them a ton of seats. That's a Conservative minority. If those voters go to the Conservatives that could well mean a Conservative majority.

Yes. This is massively misunderstood and underestimated. A move away from Liberals of say 3 % for the Bloc (+/- 14% in QC) and 6 % to the NDP and its Cons 38 Liberals 34% and that is a Conservative win. Depending on where exactly possibly even a majority. Another move of only 1-2% from Liberals to Cons and it's a clear majority.