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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn
It seems like the ridings on the other side of the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia will also be mighty close races, and there's still 35 days to go. What other ridings in Atlantic Canada will be closest?
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Sometimes the overarching national and regional numbers can miss local effects, and I believe Central Newfoundland will be one of those districts. Beyond the fact that NLers typically re-elect their incumbents no matter what (unless you're in St. John's East), the current fisheries situation unfolding between crab harvesters and DFO will be a defining issue for the district. I suspect the conservatives will easily get re-elected there, unless we're going full on 1993/2015 election. It could very well be one of those defining problems like the fisheries issues which flipped Southern Shore-St. Margarets in 2021.
The entirety of the northeast coast of Central Newfoundland falls into zone 3K which is the zone in question. There are portions of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas and Long Range Mountains in the 3K zone as well, but to much lesser degree.
Also in Newfoundland I think the skirting of the normal democratic process to place very unpopular candidates in Avalon and Long Range Mountains will bite the conservatives and liberals in the butt. CPC injecting Kent into Avalon all but ends any hope they had of flipping the district, and the LPC injecting Bradshaw into Long Range Mountains will put the conservative candidate in poll position to flip the district.
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