Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[drewber]

No matter the winner of the election I feel we need a minority government so either side is kept in check. Most minorities go for 2 years it'd get us through til 2027 and maybe by then we'd see which side is best set to deal with the remaining Trump term and beyond

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by drewber

No matter the winner of the election I feel we need a minority government so either side is kept in check. Most minorities go for 2 years it'd get us through til 2027 and maybe by then we'd see which side is best set to deal with the remaining Trump term and beyond

Not a bad thought. I am worried a Liberal majority would see them reverting to their arrogant old , we know best ways.

Although, with Singh so readily available for purchase, we pretty much had a majority government for the past 4 years.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This is PP's biggest problem. His rhetoric is decidedly Trumpian. Guilt by association. He just needs to stop right now and vigorously denounce Trump for the fascist wannabe dictator that he is. Then people may take him seriously. Otherwise, given the current geopolitical conflict in North America, things could go very badly for the Conservative Party. You do not want to be associated with Trump.

^100% agree

[Marty_Mcfly]

Hey all!

Myself and the others running Newfoundland Votes are performing an independent, unofficial poll for federal voting intentions. This is not how professional polling is done, but we're curious to see how close we can get to the polling averages of more professional agencies.

Especially want to hear the voices of our fellow Atlantic Canadians, as we are often undersampled in larger polls.

If you'd like to participate you can click the Google form link below and fill out the survey. Should only take 1-3 minutes and no personal information is collected. If we get a large enough sample size we'll report our results.

Poll Below:
https://forms.gle/tYUuaZQNBpjGJod9A

[SevenSquared]

If I were you I'd be borrowing the DeLorean, punching in April 29th and getting the actual results instead.

Interesting idea though, look forward to knowing how this compares to the pollsters.

[Marty_Mcfly]

The Delorean is in the shop

Ideally these types of polls are meant to be randomly sampled, so going to a place like here and asking for responses can easily skew the results, especially considering a place like SSP tends to be a left-leaning website, so we may get a higher Liberal response rate.

However reaching people completely randomly is nearly impossible as a small group of individuals, so there are trade offs haha.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The Delorean is in the shop

Ideally these types of polls are meant to be randomly sampled, so going to a place like here and asking for responses can easily skew the results, especially considering a place like SSP tends to be a left-leaning website, so we may get a higher Liberal response rate.

However reaching people completely randomly is nearly impossible as a small group of individuals, so there are trade offs haha.

I never understood how these forums are left leaning. There are a lot of small business folks on here I feel like they'd prefer a conservative government but maybe I'm reading them wrong.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by drewber

I never understood how these forums are left leaning. There are a lot of small business folks on here I feel like they'd prefer a conservative government but maybe I'm reading them wrong.

I'm personally right-of-centre, but, it all really depends on the issues of the day and party leadership.

In normal circumstances, I would vote Conservative.

These are decidedly not normal times.

The very existence of Canada is threatened. The enemy is Trumpian fascism.

Given the circumstances, there is only one party to vote for..........

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ Given how many people feel similarly to MonctonRad we also decided to ask about parties you'd never vote for; it does give a sense of accessible voter bases, and whether respondents are what you'd consider hyper-partisan or more typical swing voters.

Based on early returns, it's unsurprising that the PPC have an extremely small accessible voter base. Most respondents are open to voting for one of the three major parties.

[sailor734]

Got an email from the CPC introducing my CPC candidate for Saint John Kennebecasis.

Hand picked for us by CPC headquarters in Ottawa it's Melissa Young.

She might well be great but I REALLY HATE being told rather than having a vote.

As a centrist Tory I've always been a little uneasy with Poilievre. I'll watch the campaign unfold but at the moment I'm tending towards "undecided/maybe Liberal"

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

^ Given how many people feel similarly to MonctonRad we also decided to ask about parties you'd never vote for; it does give a sense of accessible voter bases, and whether respondents are what you'd consider hyper-partisan or more typical swing voters.

Based on early returns, it's unsurprising that the PPC have an extremely small accessible voter base. Most respondents are open to voting for one of the three major parties.

This is why I do not understand why the CPC doesnt go harder on Trump. Even if you said 20-30% of your base supports Trump, where else are those voters going to go? The PPC is mostly irrelevant, are voters really going to swing to the PPC after 10 years of liberal power because you said bad things about Trump? Are there that many Trump cult members in the CPC?

It leads me to conclude they are either incompetent campaigners or, the more likely option is that they align closely with Trump and agree with most of his policies. If that is the case they should be nowhere near power.

[sailor734]

Yep, I could understand Poilievre going hard right to win the leadership but in a general election he needs more than just the base. A pragmatic, common sense approach that firmly distances him from Trump and the MAGA idiots is probably his only path to victory. The fact that Trump has said he prefers Carney needs to be pushed. He also needs to make the ballot question about the Liberal record and not just Trudeau. He needs to make the Liberals own Trudeau's policies and point out they were all there in parliament the past 9 years supporting him, pounding their desks and cheering him on.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Yep, I could understand Poilievre going hard right to win the leadership but in a general election he needs more than just the base. A pragmatic, common sense approach that firmly distances him from Trump and the MAGA idiots is probably his only path to victory. The fact that Trump has said he prefers Carney needs to be pushed. He also needs to make the ballot question about the Liberal record and not just Trudeau. He needs to make the Liberals own Trudeau's policies and point out they were all there in parliament the past 9 years supporting him, pounding their desks and cheering him on.

I don’t think Trump has uttered Carney’s name once. PP pushing the idea that, “Trump prefers the Liberals” could end up backfiring

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I don’t think Trump has uttered Carney’s name once. PP pushing the idea that, “Trump prefers the Liberals” could end up backfiring

To be completely fair, Trump did say he'd prefer to deal with Liberals when pressed about what was happening in Canada. It's up to interpretation what that exactly means coming from Trump, or also how Canadians will react to it.

----

I'd like to thank you folks from NB for all your responses to our poll, we appreciate it greatly. Funny enough, our NB sample is now almost as large as our Ontario sample

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

To be completely fair, Trump did say he'd prefer to deal with Liberals when pressed about what was happening in Canada. It's up to interpretation what that exactly means coming from Trump, or also how Canadians will react to it.

----

I'd like to thank you folks from NB for all your responses to our poll, we appreciate it greatly. Funny enough, our NB sample is now almost as large as our Ontario sample

NBers seem to be disproportionately active on the Atlantic Canada board, and even on the main Canada board for some reason.

Hell I swear NBers are just more active online in general, judging from the FB comments I see whenever a random FB page does anything NB or Atlantic Canada related.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

To be completely fair, Trump did say he'd prefer to deal with Liberals when pressed about what was happening in Canada. It's up to interpretation what that exactly means coming from Trump, or also how Canadians will react to it.

---- C

I'd like to thank you folks from NB for all your responses to our poll, we appreciate it greatly. Funny enough, our NB sample is now almost as large as our Ontario sample

There’s nothing completely fair about Trump. He’s the biggest liar and megalomaniac in modern history. The concept of his seal of approval hurting a candidate’s chances in another country hurts his ego to the core. Trumps also said the Liberals were very nasty people and terrible to deal with. So yeah, i really think PP latching onto this one could end up backfiring, big time 😅 💣💥

I think most Canadians see through the bullshit when it comes to Trump and what he says, and the vast majority of voters didn't take some comments on Fox News to be any sort of endorsement for Mark Carney. Again, Trump has yet to speak or tweet his name.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

By the looks of it, there's about 5 or 6 swing ridings up for grab in Atlantic Canada. Which ones are going to be the closest?



I'm hoping Saint John West doesn't miss out on having an MP as part of the government due to the recent redistricting, the Saint John-St. Croix riding is actually winnable now for the LPC, but it will take a good campaign.

The Port of Saint John, one of Canada's biggest ports, is now split between two ridings. If the LPC can pull off the win in Saint John-St. Croix, the Port of Saint John could have two MPs sitting in government, and lobbying for generational investments in the port of Saint John in response to the Trump tariff shock... some we're upset about the redistricting, but isn't having two MPs is better than one?

The port of Saint John being added to this riding could be a key part in Karen Ludwig's appeal to rural voters, especially those involved in fishing, as continued investments in the port of Saint John will help the fisheries and seafood industries of Southwest New Brunswick get their products to new markets overseas. I don't think Charlotte Country will want to be left out if Carney ends up getting a majority, which the polling is currently suggesting. Improving the links between Southwest New Brunswick and the Port of Saint John should be a priority for any candidate seriously trying to win this new riding.


It seems like the ridings on the other side of the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia will also be mighty close races, and there's still 35 days to go. What other ridings in Atlantic Canada will be closest?

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

As someone who lives in Saint John-St. Croix i believe it would take a 2015 level of wave to knock out Williamson but the addition of West SJ adds some uncertainty to the riding. Williamson is really popular in the rural parts of the riding and Ludwig isn't the strongest candidate but who really knows what will happen.

[Taeolas]

It's a bit disappointing that Fredericton's Liberal Candidate hasn't been picked yet. Apparently there are three going for the candidacy; one is the pick of the Premier and another is the brother of the Freddy North MLA.

Jeneka stepped down in January, and they KNEW an election call was neigh. They pretty much had 2 full months to figure out who their candidate was, and now the Party will probably have to assign the delegate instead of letting the locals pick.

Hopefully that doesn't slow their momentum down much in the city. 338 has us going liberal but it's not going to be a gimmee win. They need to hit the ground running once they do pick their candidate.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

• Video Link
• Video Link

CBC hosted the National from Saint John the last two nights, and tonight will be the last night. They picked Saint John because of its spot a top the tariff impact list.

Some good coverage of Saint John and how the tariffs will impact the city on the second night. Didn’t expect to see this from the CBC.