Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Why would you say that?

Because the fundamentals of Québec's 'séparatisme' are still there, and will always be long as long as a- Québec remains in Canada, and b- Québec remains a distinct Francophone society. So the current very unusual international crisis with Trump may push some Québec voters to vote for more federal parties in the federal elections this time, but this won't last, because once the crisis is over (either because Trump has left power, or the US has plunged into a civil war and is too absorbed with its domestic problems to bother about Canada), then Québec voters will go back voting according to the bi-centennial and perennial issue of language and distinct society in an Anglo-dominated Canada (which will be even more Anglo-dominated in the future as per demographic trends and probable complacency regarding the Québec issue).

In a nutshell.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by le calmar

I used to travel to the US semi frequently but I am completely done until the insanity is over.

You're done for quite a few years then. 4 years at least, perhaps more if he runs for a 3rd term or crazy JD Vance succeeds him.

I feel the same anyway, but the big difference is I have plenty of other options of where to go, whereas when you live in Canada next to the US border, if you remove the US from your list of places to go, that removes a huge chunk of your travel potential of course. Must not be easy. Other places are further away and more expensive to go, or not that interesting compared to the US.

[le calmar]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

You're done for quite a few years then. 4 years at least, perhaps more if he runs for a 3rd term or crazy JD Vance succeeds him.

No I will not be going for a few years. It’s not just the border crossings that bother me, it’s the MAGA mindset that seems to have poisoned people’s minds down there. At least in MAGA country, and even more so in Florida. If I end up going, it’s probably going to be to a blue state.

Airfare for some European destinations isn’t much more expensive than Florida if one isn’t too picky about the airline. It’s more places within driving distance that will be limited. I usually do small car trips to both the US and Canada, so yeah my options will be more limited.

I was already planning to go to Asia this summer anyway so I probably won’t be planning any other trips for a while after that. Then we’ll see how things evolve down there.

[New Brisavoine]

Going to Europe is not only more expensive, it also requires much more time. It's not possible to do a weekend getaway to Europe the way you could do a weekend getaway to the US. I can do weekend getaways to any European country, but for weekend getaways you're basically stuck in Canada if you're not traveling to the US, so that must give a certain sense of isolation. At least that's how I would feel if I were in your shoes.

[le calmar]

A weekend getaway for me means no more than 4 hours of driving, or 8 hours both ways. So that means places in Southern Ontario, Southern Quebec, Upstate NY, Northern VT and NH. I’ll just stick to the former two for the next few years.

You’re right that flying to Europe tends to be less convenient than flying to the US, but people usually go there for at least two weeks so the option will remain interesting for the average person. I don’t think anyone would go there for just 4-5 days unless it’s for business.

[New Brisavoine]

You never fly to NYC for the weekend? Or go see an exhibition in Chicago or Washington DC over the weekend? Or fly to New Orleans for a Mardi Gras long weekend?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Because the fundamentals of Québec's 'séparatisme' are still there, and will always be long as long as a- Québec remains in Canada, and b- Québec remains a distinct Francophone society. So the current very unusual international crisis with Trump may push some Québec voters to vote for more federal parties in the federal elections this time, but this won't last, because once the crisis is over (either because Trump has left power, or the US has plunged into a civil war and is too absorbed with its domestic problems to bother about Canada), then Québec voters will go back voting according to the bi-centennial and perennial issue of language and distinct society in an Anglo-dominated Canada (which will be even more Anglo-dominated in the future as per demographic trends and probable complacency regarding the Québec issue).

In a nutshell.

This. Consider that one year after voting Non in the first sovereignty referendum in 1980, Quebec voters returned the Parti Québécois government to power with a strong majority, giving them 10 points higher support than the Oui vote in the referendum.

Quebec is the place in Canada most likely to see these strong swings.

Call it savvy or call it fickle, it's still the reality.

Quebec could give Mark Carney's Liberals the majority of seats in the province on April 28, and still elect PSPP and the PQ to a majority in 2026, and send us down the path to Referendum III.

That's actually a pretty likely scenario, if you're a betting man.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

That's actually a pretty likely scenario, if you're a betting man.

I agree on point 1 and 2 (Carney's majority in Québec + PQ nonetheless winning the provincial election in 2026), but not on point 3 (referendum). I think the PQ will want to delay the referendum due to the current international situation, as it would otherwise lead to certain defeat for them in the referendum. Depending on how things turn out in the US, I could see them launching the referendum if (and after) the Republicans suffer a decisive defeat in the 2026 mid-term elections, or if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028 (and the Maga crowd don't stage a coup to remain in power), this coupled with probable disenchantment with the reelected Liberals which should take place at some point between 2026 and 2028, all other things being equal. But launching the referendum before a decisive change in the US political situation would be suicidal (and if they lose that referendum, when is going to be their next chance to hold one?? 2050? 2075?).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

I agree on point 1 and 2 (Carney's majority in Québec + PQ nonetheless winning the provincial election in 2026), but not on point 3 (referendum). I think the PQ will want to delay the referendum due to the current international situation, as it would otherwise lead to certain defeat for them in the referendum. Depending on how things turn out in the US, I could see them launching the referendum if (and after) the Republicans suffer a decisive defeat in the 2026 mid-term elections, or if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028 (and the Maga crowd don't stage a coup to remain in power), this coupled with probable disenchantment with the reelected Liberals which should take place at some point between 2026 and 2028, all other things being equal. But launching the referendum before a decisive change in the US political situation would be suicidal (and if they lose that referendum, when is going to be their next chance to hold one?? 2050? 2075?).

Yes, events in and involving the US will greatly influence whether we have a Referendum III or not. Or at least when.

But I also think the stuff with the US could probably blow over more quickly than it looks like at the moment, so this to me increases the Referendum III risk.

[New Brisavoine]

Bon sinon...

[kwoldtimer]

I'm reminded that today is National Cocktail Day.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This. Consider that one year after voting Non in the first sovereignty referendum in 1980, Quebec voters returned the Parti Québécois government to power with a strong majority, giving them 10 points higher support than the Oui vote in the referendum.

Quebec is the place in Canada most likely to see these strong swings.

Call it savvy or call it fickle, it's still the reality.

Quebec could give Mark Carney's Liberals the majority of seats in the province on April 28, and still elect PSPP and the PQ to a majority in 2026, and send us down the path to Referendum III.

That's actually a pretty likely scenario, if you're a betting man.

This tracks. Barring a collapse in the French debate it seems Quebec is fully on the Carney bandwagon. In fact he can probably lose the debate and if he can explain it away it might not even matter.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This tracks. Barring a collapse in the French debate it seems Quebec is fully on the Carney bandwagon. In fact he can probably lose the debate and if he can explain it away it might not even matter.

But we know that the herd can turn on a dime. Take nothing for granted.

[Acajack]

Storm clouds already on the horizon with the TVA debate issue on day 2 of the campaign.

[le calmar]

Not Quebec-related, but Carney claimed he knew his riding well because he was, decades ago, best man to Peter Chiarelli, who grew up in Nepean. He referred to Bells Corners as being part of his riding, while in fact they're joining Kanata in this election as the boundary has been redrawn. Also pitched some generic census numbers about median income someone likely provided him beforehand instead of saying something more relatable about the area he will represent.

He honestly came off as someone who knows close to nothing about his riding. It's not going to prevent him from getting elected there as the riding is quite urban therefore safe, but I was surprised by the poor rationale he provided. It would not have been not too hard to look somewhat convincing, could even have made some stuff up, but he managed to fail at that.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Storm clouds already on the horizon with the TVA debate issue on day 2 of the campaign.

Carney support will go down as the guy gets known better (and it gets discovered he can’t speak, among other problems.)

Right now, he benefits from the best case scenario for him: he’s got that aura of new guy and what we’ve heard so far about him “very nice resume and he’s the guy you’ll want to vote for if you want to fight Trump” is appealing at first sight.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

But we know that the herd can turn on a dime. Take nothing for granted.

Yep, as I pointed out above, the voters in this province have seen all the pros of Carney already but not the cons yet. It’s why I expect him to go down at least a bit, as he gets better known.

Of course in Quebec politics, especially federal politics, anything can happen. Carney can’t speak but at least he’s not spending the whole campaign in Vegas, and even that doesn’t prevent one from getting elected, as we saw in 2011

[New Brisavoine]

Politician is a professional job. It's the same issue everywhere and every time, non-professional politicians look "appealing" and "refreshing" at first, but they prove a disaster once in office. They just don't have the codes and know-how.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Storm clouds already on the horizon with the TVA debate issue on day 2 of the campaign.

Blanchet blasting Carney in reasonably fluent English for lacking courage was the highlight of the day:

https://x.com/cbcwatcher/status/1904285400379936811

If Carney can't face Québécois, how can he stand up to Trump face-à-face?

It's too bad there aren't more Montreal Anglophones like Mayor Jeremy Levi:
https://x.com/jerlevi/status/19042965836...%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Blanchet blasting Carney in reasonably fluent English for lacking courage was the highlight of the day:

https://x.com/cbcwatcher/status/1904285400379936811

If Carney can't face Québécois, how can he stand up to Trump face-à-face?

It's too bad there aren't more Montreal Anglophones like Mayor Jeremy Levi:
https://x.com/jerlevi/status/19042965836...%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

In fairness, Carney has agreed to participate in both consortium debates, one in English and one in French.