Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
I stated many months ago that Translink, as well as most other systems in the country, are going to be looking at ridership declines this year which will make it's funding/financial issues even more dire.
The new StatsCan 4th quarter pop have just been released and there are very bad numbers for BC. The province only grew by 3,000 in the last quarter and with the overall population expected to decline in 2025, ridership will decline. This is made even more glaring when you consider the demographics of those numbers. The majority of this massive decline from 4th quarter of 2023 is that immigration is declining but more importantly, students, refugees, and TFW are being sent packing........the number of people being turfed out is greater than the number being let in. Those 3 demographics leaving are the ones that are most dependent on taking transit so the lose of the population will be disproportionately be felt by transit agencies.
This will not effect current transit infrastructure already under construction as it is funded by different levels of gov't as a one time expense. It's the operational revenues that will decline and with Vancouver already suffering from a transit shortfall, the cuts to service maybe even more dramatic than Translink has already proposed. This lower service with higher fares results in lower ridership with even lower revenues which leads to further service cuts etc, etc..............the dreaded transit downward spiral. Translink will not be alone in this as many other systems will suffer the same fate but that is not going to be any comfort to Translink or transit riders.
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But isn't this what everyone wanted (circa about a year, or year and a half ago......re: immigration and less students/immigrants coming in)?
Except nobody seemed to be aware at the time that this might be one of the consequences.
Regardless of year-over-year ridership increase (which is more a snapshot for the moment, rather than an indication of the trend to the future that is the issue for translink's forecasted shortfall), an overall declining population growth numbers - with most of the decline happening in demographics that would likely ride transit more, doesn't bode well for Translink's prospects in this regard.
Maybe the current extension to the skytrain line will mitigate some of that by adding more riders from farther out, but it's hard to see it being by much.
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