Canadian Airport Thread II

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well then, yet another opportunity to expand service in the east when the trans border routes dry up.

You must see some opportunities for WestJet to expand service out of YHZ too q12 under the current geopolitical paradigm. How about more trans Atlantic routes to Lisbon, Madrid, Madeira etc............

It will be interesting if this US boycott has legs how the airlines will have to regroup.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well then, yet another opportunity to expand service in the east when the trans border routes dry up.

You must see some opportunities for WestJet to expand service out of YHZ too q12 under the current geopolitical paradigm. How about more trans Atlantic routes to Lisbon, Madrid, Madeira etc............

Anything is possible the way things are going. I do think Atlantic Canada will benefit this summer because it's a big tourist destination in Canada.

Also most of the YHZ U.S. (Northeast) routes are summer seasonal as well. Theses U.S. flights are filled with Americans headed to vacation in Atlantic Canada, hence why they are seasonal.
However this summer they may be full of Americans trying to flee the U.S. to Canada.

Just look at this news story from the Halifax airport a few days ago:

Flying in a trade war: Why some feel ‘betrayed,’ others look at moving to Canada

By Itel Sapozhnikov Global News
Posted March 13, 2025 7:17 am



The divide between Canadians and Americans was felt throughout the check-in lanes in the U.S. departures wing at Halifax Stanfield International Airport.
As George Bell and his wife embarked their adventure to Colombia, they were faced with an undesired layover in the United States.
“It was unavoidable,” Bell said. “If there was another route that was economical and the time frame would have worked out, we would have preferred it.”

With plans to retire with his wife at their Florida property, he considered cutting those ties to south of the border since the news of tariffs first came to light.
“We had a trip planned for Florida in the spring and we cancelled it,” Bell said. “I also had a second one to Utah, mountain biking in September — cancelled it.”

The Nova Scotia local sewed a Canadian flag on his backpack, saying it was to avoid being mistaken for an American.
“I don’t want to put my money into the U.S. economy after what Trump did,” Bell said. “I just don’t feel compelled to go to the U.S. right now, maybe not for four years.”

With little optimism for the future, he believes the damage will leave a lasting mark on the relationship between the two nations.
“I feel like most Canadians, I think — betrayed. You know, we’re their best friends.” Bell said. “I think it’s going downhill; the damage he’s [Trump’s] doing is not going to be easily repaired.”

Leah Batstone, the communications manager at Halifax International Airport Authority said there haven’t been any adjustments to the routes or frequencies of the flights travelling to the United States.
“We have non-stop service to destinations in Florida as well as New York and Boston,” Batstone said. “Those flights do go both ways.”
According to Batstone, it is too early to tell if airlines will consider making changes to American flights.
“We’ll just be closely monitoring the situation and the airlines at the end of the day will make their decisions based on the demand,” Batstone said.

Some U.S. citizens felt the desire to flee since the imposed tariffs. Lisa Kumpula, a South Carolinian, has already begun the process.



“I think that this has been the trigger,” Kumpula said. “This is enough motivation; we need to do what’s right for our daughter.”
Kumpula had already been considering moving to Canada, but recent developments pushed her to take the leap.
“They’re cheering on women losing their rights and people that are gay losing their rights,” Kumpula said.
“All the horror that’s happening, I just feel like I need to get out.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/11079125/us-americans-travelling-canada-trump-tariffs-halifax/

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It’s starting. Transborder numbers will be significantly down at all 4 major hubs this year. By the end of the year, if Trump keeps up his rhetoric, you will see US carriers pulling out of some Canadian routes. AC, WS and PD will do the same.

This is just the beginning.

Well in January the three airports with data to report in the "medium 4" all had significant January transborder gains:

YOW: +11.3%
YHZ: +14.7%
YEG: +18.2%

April is going to be when things will really start to show up as few people will have cancelled Feb/Mar trips because of the USA gong show.

Originally Posted by hehehe

It's certainly beginning and this was for data that's two months ago, when the situation was still different. The next 3/4ths of the year are gonna be brutal TB wise, but I think AC/WS will add a lot of cross country travel. WS already does a lot of Atlantic flying out west, I expect to see that grow a lot more. YQB will probably see some good domestic gains as well.

Probably a lot more Mexico/sun flying as well.

Ironically YQB is supposed to see significant transborder additions this summer. YHZ too.

Originally Posted by Ace Cdn

They are definitely adjusting the schedule. I was looking at a flight from YVR-SMF in April and the flight on Wednesdays is gone all together where before it was daily.

Indeed and they're also doing equipment downgauges. For example, the 223 planned for STL-YYZ is back to being a CR9.

[LO 044]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I could see WestJet boosting their schedule in the east a bit in response to decreased trans border traffic.

Moncton has daily year round Calgary, and seasonal WestJet flights to Edmonton and Toronto.

I could see Toronto becoming year round and daily to compete with Air Canada and Porter. I could see another route of two being considered. Right now only Porter flies from Moncton to Ottawa. In the past we had Air Canada supplying this route too. I think WestJet could step in and provide some competition here too.

If I was WestJet, Flair and Air Canada, I would jump on the maritime bandwagon simply because the 737's will be the most prominent aircraft being available due to a slow down of US flights. Halifax, St. John's, Moncton, Charlottetown and Fredericton may all have a chance at new flights.

And Frankly, if I lived out east I would probably pick the beaches of Portugal or Spain to visit rather than the beaches of Florida.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LO 044

If I was WestJet, Flair and Air Canada, I would jump on the maritime bandwagon simply because the 737's will be the most prominent aircraft being available due to a slow down of US flights. Halifax, St. John's, Moncton, Charlottetown and Fredericton may all have a chance at new flights.

And Frankly, if I lived out east I would probably pick the beaches of Portugal or Spain to visit rather than the beaches of Florida.

Amen to that. Why anyone would choose Florida's tawdry environs over Spain or Portugal is mystifying. Maybe its the lack of all you can eat buffets, or the quaint charms of Jimmy Buffet's Margaritaville.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Amen to that. Why anyone would choose Florida's tawdry environs over Spain or Portugal is mystifying. Maybe its the lack of all you can eat buffets, or the quaint charms of Jimmy Buffet's Margaritaville.

The US has lots of nice places but I agree that if you're flying these other areas are pretty appealing. I'm not sure a trip to Florida is even cheaper for Canadians than Portugal these days. If you want a mid-winter beach holiday, the Caribbean and Mexico are a bit nicer than any of the US destinations (and on the western side, PV is closer than Miami and California isn't very warm in winter). I'd say the national parks are the biggest loss if you don't visit the USA.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Amen to that. Why anyone would choose Florida's tawdry environs over Spain or Portugal is mystifying. Maybe its the lack of all you can eat buffets, or the quaint charms of Jimmy Buffet's Margaritaville.

ultimately because they speak english and you can throw all your crap into your backseat and drive there.

That is worth a LOT for a lot of people, especially if you plan on spending months there.

Plus Florida actually stays hot all winter, even Spain and Portugal get cooler days in January.

If you are flying for a weeks vacation though, 100% you are probably better off in Spain or Portugal.

[hollywoodcory]

WS has loaded the following Europe increases for S25:

YYC-KEF Increased from 4x weekly to 1x daily
YYZ-EDI Increased from 1x daily to 11x weekly
YYZ-DUB Increased from 1x daily to 9x weekly

Also seeing various sun additions too including YYC-CUN/PVR, YYZ-CUN/LIR/PUJ, YEG-CUN and YVR-CUN in May/June.

[SignalHillHiker]

I angry-reacted to the referenced post, just to do so... never thought in a million years there would be any official reaction, let alone this...



Also, public institutions here aren't being coy or wishy-washy about their reasons.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Well in January the three airports with data to report in the "medium 4" all had significant January transborder gains:

YOW: +11.3%
YHZ: +14.7%
YEG: +18.2%

April is going to be when things will really start to show up as few people will have cancelled Feb/Mar trips because of the USA gong show.

That's why I only mentioned the 4 majors. The regional airports are all still trying to recover to pre-COVID numbers (including transborder numbers), so the latest transborder additions there will hide the decline in US travel somewhat. There will definately be lower bookings to the US from across the country though, so as you said, the effect of this at places like YOW, YHZ, YWG etc. will only be felt later on in the year. At the 4 majors though, it is already being felt.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

That's why I only mentioned the 4 majors. The regional airports are all still trying to recover to pre-COVID numbers (including transborder numbers), so the latest transborder additions there will hide the decline in US travel somewhat. There will definately be lower bookings to the US from across the country though, so as you said, the effect of this at places like YOW, YHZ, YWG etc. will only be felt later on in the year. At the 4 majors though, it is already being felt.

Canada just has more diversified options to get to the USA in 2025 vs 2024. As other airports are built out it will impact other airports.
Ottawa and Halifax used Montreal heavily to connect to the USA, as they get more non stops they will connect less and will impact USA numbers in YUL.

January numbers across Canada are up vs 2024 according to DOT.

Tariff and Trump will be seen April and beyond.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

That's why I only mentioned the 4 majors. The regional airports are all still trying to recover to pre-COVID numbers (including transborder numbers), so the latest transborder additions there will hide the decline in US travel somewhat. There will definately be lower bookings to the US from across the country though, so as you said, the effect of this at places like YOW, YHZ, YWG etc. will only be felt later on in the year. At the 4 majors though, it is already being felt.

They are indeed. In fact for transborder the peak year for the medium 4 wasn't even close to being 2019:
- YOW was 2012 with 775,040
- YHZ was 2011 with 409,709
- YEG was 2014 with 1,372,669
- YWG was 2008 with 482,818

Here are YOW's February 2025 pax stats with a transborder % gain almost the same as January:

Sector / Feb-24 / Feb-25 / % Change
Dom: 215,335 / 235,054 / +9.2%
TB: 70,952 / 79,032 / +11.4%
Int'l: 68,242 / 60,942 / -10.7%
TTL: 354,529 / 375,028 / +5.8%

Sector / YTD 2024 / YTD 2025 / % Change
Dom: 419,226 / 479,478 / +14.4%
TB: 136,616 / 152,145 / +11.4%
Int'l: 140,032 / 126,387 / -9.7%
TTL: 695,874 / 758,010 / +8.9%

February % of traffic recovered vs 2019 / YTD vs 2019
Sector / February / YTD % recovered
Dom: 84.8% / 87.2%
TB: 115.9% / 112.9%
Int'l: 102.3% / 102.4%
TTL: 92.6% / 93.8%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2023
Dom: 3,491,752 / +9.0%
TB: 756,978 / +31.4% - this is now the 3rd highest ever 12 month total
Int'l: 420,230 / +32.6%
TTL: 4,668,960 / +14.0%

Through the first two months of this year, YOW is on pace for 4.79 million pax.

[Airboy]

I was thinking that we may not see that big of change in transborder travel. In fact we may see a large bump in Americans coming north.

Stats Canada would post Canadian numbers choosing to travel across the border.

Anecdotally, the hotel we usually stay at in Victoria has said they are now fully booked in April. Good thing I booked back in Dec. I was changing to the larger suite but was told they are now gone. She did say they are getting more Canadian reservation than normal.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Canada just has more diversified options to get to the USA in 2025 vs 2024. As other airports are built out it will impact other airports.
Ottawa and Halifax used Montreal heavily to connect to the USA, as they get more non stops they will connect less and will impact USA numbers in YUL.

January numbers across Canada are up vs 2024 according to DOT.

Tariff and Trump will be seen April and beyond.

To my knowledge, DOT just posts load factors. That doesn't paint the whole picture. To be honest, I don't consult DOT figures that much.

What I do know, is that the 4 majors handle 70%+ of all passengers flying in this country, and 3 of the 4 majors posted negative transborder numbers in January. YYZ doesn't do monthly stats, so we won't know it's Q1 numbers until next month, at the earliest, but chances are, it will be negative as well.

As I said, top 4 airports represent ~73% of all traffic in Canada. If you add up the next 6 airports (so top 10), that only gives you an additional ~15% of traffic, for a total of ~88%.

My point is, what happens at the 4 majors is a better indicator of what is happening across the country than DOT load factors, or YEG/YOW/YHZ/YWG numbers.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

Transborder also down for YVR

Domestic: 958,169 +4.2%
Transborder: 447,716 -4.4%
Asia Pacific: 387,050 +16.8%
Europe: 95,673 +8.8%
Misc. Intl: 151,607 -8.1%

January YTD: 2,040,215 +3.5%

Consequence of visa requirement for Mexican nationals I would assume.

Overall, solid numbers though. Asia Pac is rebounding nicely. It will definitely help offset the losses to the US and Mexico this year.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

WS has loaded the following Europe increases for S25:

YYC-KEF Increased from 4x weekly to 1x daily
YYZ-EDI Increased from 1x daily to 11x weekly
YYZ-DUB Increased from 1x daily to 9x weekly

Also seeing various sun additions too including YYC-CUN/PVR, YYZ-CUN/LIR/PUJ, YEG-CUN and YVR-CUN in May/June.

Correction:
YYZ-DUB was increased to 11x weekly as well.

This brings WS Europe service to:
YYZ - 22x weekly (DUB / EDI)
YHZ - 20x weekly (LGW / DUB / EDI / CDG / AMS)
YYT - 7x weekly (LGW / DUB / CDG)
YYC - 37x weekly (LHR / CDG / FCO / KEF / EDI / DUB / BCN)

For a total of 86 weekly flights in peak period to 9 destinations.

This becomes 99x weekly total intercontinental when you factor in NRT/ICN.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Consequence of visa requirement for Mexican nationals I would assume.

Overall, solid numbers though. Asia Pac is rebounding nicely. It will definitely help offset the losses to the US and Mexico this year.

Another source I saw showed about a 20% drop YoY for Mexican tourism to Canada last year versus 2023.

The requirements only impacted about 40% of their travellers, for example not impacting those with an existing US visa, which is likely why the numbers didn’t drop as severely as following the 2009 visa implementation. But it certainly has led to me travelling there more and spending more money in their country instead of vacationing in Canada, due to my relationship circumstances. So I guess I’m helping make up a tiny bit of the demand with Air Canada and Aeromexico in lieu of my partner visiting me.

[Dominion301]

More day-of-week WS transborder cuts and the winter seasonal YLW-LAS route will end 3 weeks early: https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250318-wsapr25us

Calgary – Las Vegas 30MAR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 21 to 20 weekly
Calgary – Los Angeles 30MA25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 20 to 19 weekly
Calgary – New York JFK 07APR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 6 to 5 weekly
Kelowna – Las Vegas Service operates until 30MAR25, instead of 20APR25
Kelowna – Seattle 01APR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 7 to 3 weekly
Toronto – Fort Lauderdale 01APR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 11 to 6 weekly
Toronto – Fort Myers 01APR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 9 to 6 weekly
Toronto – Orlando 01APR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 13 to 9 weekly
Vancouver – Los Angeles 30MAR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 11 to 10 weekly
Vancouver – Orlando 04APR25 – 26APR25 Reduce from 3 to 1 weekly

Also:

Other routes will also see capacity reductions.

This probably means downgauging some 738/7M8 flights to 73Gs while keeping the frequency the same. I wonder if it also means 737>DH4 in a couple of instances?

On the flip side, it includes sun flying capacity increases, including the summertime return of YYZ-SJD for the first time since 2017: https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250318-wsns25int

Toronto – Aruba 30JUN25 – 25AUG25 Increase from 4 to 5 weekly
Toronto – Cancun eff 29MAY25 Increase from 7 to 21 weekly
Toronto – Los Cabos/Cabo San Lucas eff 29MAY25 1 weekly (Last served until April 2017)
WS2784 YYZ0930 – 1153SJD 7S8 4
WS2785 SJD1250 – 2042YYZ 7S8 4
Toronto – Punta Cana 01MAY25 – 31AUG25 Increase from 6-9 weekly to up to 15 weekly
Toronto – Varadero eff 29MAY25 Increase from 1 weekly to 1 daily

With all these YYZ leisure increases south and to Europe, WS would be wise to add a second daily on YYZ-YOW/YUL to capture afternoon/evening connections.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

On the flip side, it includes sun flying capacity increases, including the summertime return of YYZ-SJD for the first time since 2017: https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250318-wsns25int

Toronto – Aruba 30JUN25 – 25AUG25 Increase from 4 to 5 weekly
Toronto – Cancun eff 29MAY25 Increase from 7 to 21 weekly
Toronto – Los Cabos/Cabo San Lucas eff 29MAY25 1 weekly (Last served until April 2017)
WS2784 YYZ0930 – 1153SJD 7S8 4
WS2785 SJD1250 – 2042YYZ 7S8 4
Toronto – Punta Cana 01MAY25 – 31AUG25 Increase from 6-9 weekly to up to 15 weekly
Toronto – Varadero eff 29MAY25 Increase from 1 weekly to 1 daily

With all these YYZ leisure increases south and to Europe, WS would be wise to add a second daily on YYZ-YOW/YUL to capture afternoon/evening connections.

A lot of this is Sunwing capacity transferring over to WS metal. None of it is currently bookable on its own as of right now.

I suspect there will also be additional domestic capacity coming as well.

[IRT_BMT_IND]

Originally Posted by zahav

As if this nightmare airport situation wasn't bad enough already, a couple days ago looked at Google Flights for this summer and there's something weird happening with lots of AC's transborder routes... I searched certain main routes just to see if there were new cuts, and on many routes from YVR, YYZ, and YUL there were the flights available for purchase with the existing schedule, but then right under there would be an Air Canada flight at the identical departure time, but not available to purchase. They're like ghost results. And all of these new flights were Jazz flight numbers, and all (or most) of the existing flights were mainline. No more details, and you couldn't book as I said, but wtf was that? To make things weirder, then they disappeared and it was back to just the schedule we know, no more ghost results. So I was relieved, but still nervous about what's coming. Then earlier today, I repeated the searches, and the ghost results were back, same thing as Thursday. But I tried just now, and gone again. It's like the booking engine is intentionally stoking my anxiety lol... I am freaked though, because from what I saw was almost total replacement of mainline with Jazz on the bulk of transborder routes (I didn't do an exhaustive city by city search, just popular routes from all 3 AC hubs). But basically other than sun leisure destinations in Florida, most routes had Jazz ghost results. Whatever Google displayed, it sure wasn't created by them, it was pulling from somewhere with legit flight #s, that's what scares me. My optimistic side hopes it was a shadow schedule or something that AC has as a back-up in case things collapse long term, and it isn't actually happening, at least not yet. But the nervous pessimistic side of me is dreading searching Google Flights and seeing the all-Jazz catastrophe is real.

I did check the Air Canada website itself directly after seeing these results, and nothing comes up there. I also checked OAG flight timetables for YVR, which sometimes show things earlier than airlines themselves, and they don't have any of the Jazz flights. But I am not taking either of these occurrences as solid assurances, they could change anytime. Again, if anyone knows more about how these booking engines/data retrieval processes work, please post a reply.

Likely AC has loaded schedule data but not fare data (depending on how Google Flights works these can come from separate sources), so Google can show these segments but can't actually price them.