Canadian Federal Election

[samne]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The LPC is already doing that. They are basically saying that it's a choice between someone who knows economics and someone who is much like Trump in many ways.

The only messaging I’m seeing from the Libs is it’s a choice between the Liberals or Trump/Pierre.

Probably in Libs best interest to keep this trade war going as long as possible as opposed to the way Mexico and the UK handled it.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I appreciate the kind words.

Polling is in a complete state of chaos right now, which is pretty typical of a landscape undergoing dramatic change at a quick pace. Things should hopefully settle soon enough. I do suspect the Liberals are ahead nationally, maybe by around 3 to 5 points.

I do think, for fun though since they're actually hilarious, that we should look at the EKOS regionals numbers; it'll give you a sense of how they managed to get the LPC at 50% nationally. It's up to you to decide whether you believe these cross-tabs or not, but if you do believe the Prairie numbers them I may have some magic beans to sell you

I’d be surprised if Carney’s Quebec numbers stay anywhere near that high after he starts to be known. Right now he’s the new flavor of the day, not surprising to see the most fickle province federally being interested (for the time being).

On the other hand, Poilievre is a much more flawed candidate for PM than Carney. The NGC would normally beat a Poilievre easily in almost all circumstances (though maybe not an O’Toole or a Michael Chong, or a Mark Carney as Stephen Harper’s Finance Minister and replacement!)

It’s JT’s extreme toxicity that propelled PP to those polling heights, and that era is now over.

[casper]

Originally Posted by samne

The only messaging I’m seeing from the Libs is it’s a choice between the Liberals or Trump/Pierre.

Probably in Libs best interest to keep this trade war going as long as possible as opposed to the way Mexico and the UK handled it.

How did Mexico handle it differently than Canada? They are holding off on their retaliation on Steel and Aluminum in hopes that a deal can be reached before April 2nd on everything. So we will see in two weeks what happens.

What did the UK do. They looked at and said, well 5% of our exports are being tariffed by the US. We will hold off on retaliation for now. We will try to negotiate to have it removed.

I don't think either option is viable for Canada.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by jamincan

I confess I've only watched a few of their videos, but I thought pretty much everyone on it are disaffected Republicans.

That's what is claimed about them (mostly by others) I believe Sarah and Tim were but they've long lost claim to that card. It a very alphabet mafia friendly channel and their commentary totally leans that way. Sarah is the only one who who doesn't guzzle all the left wing KoolAid. Even though she doesn't agree with it she will present the other side, usually with data from her focus groups.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Conversely he did add a post from London. Not a major one but at least he acknowledges that not everyone in Ontario lives in the GTAH.

Minister of Democratic Institutions is interesting in that she is probably the only MP who has won a ranked ballot election. I wouldn't expect electoral reform to become a Liberal promise again though. Also Government House Leader, which would actually be something if Parliament did sit again and Carney isn't an MP, but I don't think anyone actually expects the House to come back until after an election. Kayabaga was thought of as at risk in the coming election, which probably explains the cabinet posting (especially when you consider the other Liberal MP in London has been there since 2015 and actually publicly said Trudeau should step down and he supported Carney). The CPC candidate in London West is pretty well unknown so I'm not sure how big of a race it will be with a resurgent Liberal party. She is also the MP that some might remember from a couple years ago that made news when she said at the Liberal convention in London that she couldn't afford to buy a home on her MP salary.

As to the suggestion that the Liberals can't keep up the momentum, I have that concern too, but I think Donald is the gift that keeps on giving. April 2 is supposedly the next tariff battle date which I expect will ratchet up the "Team Canada" thing again, and if Carney is able to deliver something similar to Trudeau's last couple "tariff speeches" and get some kind of delay happening again, that will spike his support once again just as the election is in full gear.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by samne

The more I hear Carney, the more unremarkable and uninspiring he is. Just a low energy Technocrat reading a script.

I don't think many Canadians have seen anything much past headlines and actually heard him speak or in action with people.

I cannot see him motivating swing voters in an election. Singh is much better at motivating his base. Trudeau was a terrible Manager, but incredible politician/communicator.

I think you described Pierre perfectly. There isn't any time that guy speaks where I feel a swell of pride in Canada, or that he loves Canada in any way. Unremarkable and Uninspiring have his picture beside them in the dictionary.

[theman23]

I'm not saying investments in BEVs or battery tech are misguided...but this is why announcements should not be conflated with accomplishments.


https://www.montrealgazette.com/news/article809839.html

Where did Quebec’s Northvolt gamble go wrong?

Swedish battery cell manufacturer Northvolt AB, which is developing a massive plant in the Montérégie region valued at $7 billion, declared bankruptcy Wednesday. In its press release, Northvolt said its North American subsidiary “remains solvent,” but the fate of Quebec and Canada’s highly touted investment is very much in doubt.

[...]

Uncertain future for Quebec plant Unable to raise emergency cash to meet its financial obligations, Northvolt AB filed for bankruptcy in Sweden Wednesday. It appears Quebec will lose the $270 million it invested in the parent company, and the Caisse its $200 million. Northvolt America said in a statement Wednesday it remains solvent and will honour its obligations, including toward its employees. Spokeswoman Emmanuelle Rouillard-Moreau would not confirm if construction on the Quebec project will move ahead. Nothing has been built at the site to date. “Our hope is that the controller will begin looking for a buyer who will invest in taking over all of the project’s activities in North America,” Quebec Economy Minister Christine Fréchette, said in a statement.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by samne

The only messaging I’m seeing from the Libs is it’s a choice between the Liberals or Trump/Pierre.

Probably in Libs best interest to keep this trade war going as long as possible as opposed to the way Mexico and the UK handled it.

Is Trump threatening to make either of them the 51st and/or 52nd state? Oh, then I guess there are differences in the way different countries should handle this. Go figure.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by samne

The only messaging I’m seeing from the Libs is it’s a choice between the Liberals or Trump/Pierre.

Probably in Libs best interest to keep this trade war going as long as possible as opposed to the way Mexico and the UK handled it.

Is there any credible Canadian who has not acknowledged that Canada must retaliate?

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I think you described Pierre perfectly. There isn't any time that guy speaks where I feel a swell of pride in Canada, or that he loves Canada in any way. Unremarkable and Uninspiring have his picture beside them in the dictionary.

I have a bit of a conundrum. I’ve had enough of the Liberals. They have made a lot of bad decisions that have put our country in a bad position. I really want to vote Conservative.

However, and this is especially true with the events of the past few months, all I know about Pierre’s plan to deal with the Trump problem is that he is going to be ‘not Trudeau’, and that he thinks Carney is Trudeau 2.0. Okay, we get it. He doesn’t like Trudeau… so how will he deal with the Trump problem? By being ‘not Trudeau’?

On the other hand, we have someone with extensive international financial experience who ho seems to have some strategy in mind, and some skills to bring to the table. But he is attached to the party that screwed things up in the first place. At this point it seems better than no plan, other than to be in continual attack dog mode, complaining about the evil carbon tax. I truly don’t know if he has anything more than that. So yeah, unremarkable and uninspiring are good descriptors for PP.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I have a bit of a conundrum. I’ve had enough of the Liberals. They have made a lot of bad decisions that have put our country in a bad position. I really want to vote Conservative.

However, and this is especially true with the events of the past few months, all I know about Pierre’s plan to deal with the Trump problem is that he is going to be ‘not Trudeau’, and that he thinks Carney is Trudeau 2.0. Okay, we get it. He doesn’t like Trudeau… so how will he deal with the Trump problem? By being ‘not Trudeau’?

On the other hand, we have someone with extensive international financial experience who ho seems to have some strategy in mind, and some skills to bring to the table. But he is attached to the party that screwed things up in the first place. At this point it seems better than no plan, other than to be in continual attack dog mode, complaining about the evil carbon tax. I truly don’t know if he has anything more than that. So yeah, unremarkable and uninspiring are good descriptors for PP.

One might consider waiting to see the parties' electoral platforms.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I have a bit of a conundrum. I’ve had enough of the Liberals. They have made a lot of bad decisions that have put our country in a bad position. I really want to vote Conservative.

However, and this is especially true with the events of the past few months, all I know about Pierre’s plan to deal with the Trump problem is that he is going to be ‘not Trudeau’, and that he thinks Carney is Trudeau 2.0. Okay, we get it. He doesn’t like Trudeau… so how will he deal with the Trump problem? By being ‘not Trudeau’?

On the other hand, we have someone with extensive international financial experience who ho seems to have some strategy in mind, and some skills to bring to the table. But he is attached to the party that screwed things up in the first place. At this point it seems better than no plan, other than to be in continual attack dog mode, complaining about the evil carbon tax. I truly don’t know if he has anything more than that. So yeah, unremarkable and uninspiring are good descriptors for PP.

This is an honest question not meant as an attack. What specifically do you think the government has done to screw things up in the first place? What is screwed up because of what they did? I hear this a lot but I’m never sure what it actually means. How is the country in a bad position because of current government decisions.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The LPC is already doing that. They are basically saying that it's a choice between someone who knows economics and someone who is much like Trump in many ways.

To be fair. This is the choice.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by samne

The more I hear Carney, the more unremarkable and uninspiring he is. Just a low energy Technocrat reading a script.

I don't think many Canadians have seen anything much past headlines and actually heard him speak or in action with people.

I cannot see him motivating swing voters in an election. Singh is much better at motivating his base. Trudeau was a terrible Manager, but incredible politician/communicator. This matters.

Libs are going to work extremely hard to hammer on the fear factor of Pierre and Trump to compensate for this. Only option.

It’s possible that you are predisposed to not like what he has to say.

I personally don’t think this is an election that requires the leader to be inspiring. I agree with you that Carney is not a motivational speaker and he is not a polished politician. But in this moment specifically I’m not sure that matters. Trudeau beat Harper by being that but right now the country is looking for the experienced, reassuring, calm hand on the wheel. It is a perfect moment in time for Carney. Four years from now or at a more normal time in the world he would likely not be successful for the reasons you say. But right here right now he is almost destined for the moment. He will get destroyed in the debates by the attack dog but unlike most elections, it might not matter. It might even turn off swing voters who are repelled by the persona that Poilievre has crafted. We are already seeing the collapse of the left for this reason.

To me, because of the existential threat and the comparative resumes of each leader, the election hinges much more on Pierre convincing people he is the man for the moment than it is convincing them Carney is not.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by casper

How did Mexico handle it differently than Canada? .

Mexico never had a bunch of appeasers go down to the US, and "ply nice" with Trump. It could be that Mexico is a different language and culture. However, I am more inclined to believe that Mexicans, and Latin Americans are far more weary of American intervention.

It's easier to deal with this problem if your country has a history of America bullying you. This is new to Canada, so many are in a state of denial. The best thing to do, is to put on a United front, weed out the collaborators (Smith, Moe, etc), and let Trump come to us.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Is Trump threatening to make either of them the 51st and/or 52nd state? Oh, then I guess there are differences in the way different countries should handle this. Go figure.

I've wondered why no media has mentioned this long ago. Why isn't Mexico being touted as the 51st state? I would think they are far more culturally intertwined with the US or does the US have too many brown people as it is?

Is Trump so interested in Canada's human resources or is it just resources? I think we all know the answers.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by trueviking

This is an honest question not meant as an attack. What specifically do you think the government has done to screw things up in the first place? What is screwed up because of what they did? I hear this a lot but I’m never sure what it actually means. How is the country in a bad position because of current government decisions.

There's lots of treatises on that here over the past 18 months.
Most of why they are hated are worldwide problems and exaggerated. Leaving Covid out of it as that's a big can of worms, they focussed on a lot of virtue signaling which was a distraction but arguing it's the cause of our economic malaise is doubtful. They spent more than a Carney or Conservative government would have. And therefore needed some tax the rich policies that dampened growth. A lot of the biggest complainers about that are some of the beneficiaries of said spending of course. They talked down our resource sector which dampened growth but it's also mostly on the margins.

A Conservative government reverses all that for a bit of growth but draconian cuts and reckless spending cuts very easily might be worse. They might end a bit of wokeness and clean up our streets a bit but is all that worth it? If they have a concrete plan on these two issues they might get my vote but it will be a reluctant one for sure.

A Conservitive go

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I have a bit of a conundrum. I’ve had enough of the Liberals. They have made a lot of bad decisions that have put our country in a bad position. I really want to vote Conservative.

One thing about both Trudeaus, is that they were fairly unpopular during the majority of their tenure as PM's. However, when there is a crisis, they rise to the occasion. With Pierre Trudeau, it was the October Crisis in 1970. With Justin, it was COVID and Trump 2025.

I actually think that Trudeau would have pulled off the election. had he remained leader of Canada. If only because Poilievre has all but proven he is completely incompetent to deal with a crisis situation that we face at present.

[trueviking]

I took a semester of university in Kathmandu, Nepal and I remember riding in a rickety old bus on a narrow road with no guardrails clinging to a thousand foot cliff along the side of a mountain. In that moment I didn’t care that my bus driver wasn’t charismatic and likeable. I really cared that he had driven that road before and knew exactly how to get through it without falling off the cliff.

That is how I see the election right now.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by trueviking

It’s possible that you are predisposed to not like what he has to say.

I personally don’t think this is an election that requires the leader to be inspiring. I agree with you that Carney is not a motivational speaker and he is not a polished politician. But in this moment specifically I’m not sure that matters. Trudeau beat Harper by being that but right now the country is looking for the experienced, reassuring, calm hand on the wheel. It is a perfect moment in time for Carney. Four years from now or at a more normal time in the world he would likely not be successful for the reasons you say. But right here right now he is almost destined for the moment. He will get destroyed in the debates by the attack dog but unlike most elections, it might not matter. It might even turn off swing voters who are repelled by the persona that Poilievre has crafted. We are already seeing the collapse of the left for this reason.

To me, because of the existential threat and the comparative resumes of each leader, the election hinges much more on Pierre convincing people he is the man for the moment than it is convincing them Carney is not.

Totally agree with everything you said. Carney is the guy I want to take on Trump but if he goes back to his previous ideals and has all the same Trudeau people and ideas, he is not the guy I want running this country. Therein lies the problem and is probably the reason I was opining about what a coalition government would entail.