Canadian Federal Election

[casper]

Originally Posted by samne

And Trudeau described anyone who didn’t agree with him as having “Unacceptable Views”. The Liberals are the Thought Police.

The reality is very different.

Canada does not have Lèse-majesté laws on the book.

As for claiming the Truckers had “Unacceptable Views” what did he do about? Nothing, they continued their convoy and expressed their view. They were given freedom to have those unacceptable views. They were not cleared out of Ottawa because of their views, they were cleared out because they were blocking the roads and would not leave.

[TorontoDrew]

Just saw Brian Taylor Cohen report on our current election standings. It shows the Liberal party almost neck and neck with the PC party. It also shows NDP support dropping fast.


This gives me hope. It looks as though most voters are aware of the situation and that they will leave their preferred party to back the one that will put up the best fight for Canada.

BTW, south of the border, all the left-wing media call PP Maple MAGA.

If PP loses this will most likely open the door for Ford to run for PM next time around. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. While he's been doing a great job with the current situation he's done some pretty terrible things in the GTA.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Can't recall a recent time when any Conservative PM or Conservative leader in Canada has united the country so much as Trudeau has...

Brian Mulroney did a pretty good job of uniting Canada against the Progressive Conservatives.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Just saw Brian Taylor Cohen report on our current election standings. It shows the Liberal party almost neck and neck with the PC party. It also shows NDP support dropping fast.


This gives me hope. It looks as though most voters are aware of the situation and that they will leave their preferred party to back the one that will put up the best fight for Canada.

BTW, south of the border, all the left-wing media call PP Maple MAGA.

If PP loses this will most likely open the door for Ford to run for PM next time around. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. While he's been doing a great job with the current situation he's done some pretty terrible things in the GTA.

Ford doesn't speak any French. And Quebec gets one quarter of the vote in the CPC leadership voting system.

He was able to successfully distract Ontarians with his rhetoric about standing up to tariffs (which he has no control over) and taking away from the corruption and his bungled record.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Docere

Ford doesn't speak any French. And Quebec gets one quarter of the vote in the CPC leadership voting system.

He was able to successfully distract Ontarians with his rhetoric about standing up to tariffs (which he has no control over) and taking away from the corruption and his bungled record.

Yeah those rumours sound like sour grapes from the federal Conservatives blaming their over-confidence in 2024 for their current predicament. Ford is 60 but could study French a few hours a day for the next two years but premiers especially from Ontario would have a tough time federally even if he was very popular which he really isn't beyond recent events.

[Docere]

Interestingly, there hasn't been a Prime Minister from Ontario since Lester Pearson. Unless you count Martin and Harper who were born and raised in Ontario but made their political careers elsewhere.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by samne

And Trudeau described anyone who didn’t agree with him as having “Unacceptable Views”. The Liberals are the Thought Police.

Er, if memory serves, it was more specific than that. He was referring only to the Convoy yokels, who were clangorously occupying Ottawa and blocking the Coutts highway explicitly for the right to be selfish and irresponsible.
Nonetheless, I do agree that Trudeau used language he shouldn't have. Of course anyone is allowed to hold beliefs of any sort, no matter how objectionable to others. Acting on those beliefs is another story.

[BlackDog204]

[ssiguy]

If Carney manages to pull the rabbit out of the hat and score a government I REALLY hope he does it with nationwide support. If he gets his gov't without a single Alberta and/or Sask. seat, there is going to be REAL trouble. It would be almost impossible for the country to put up a truly unifies opposition against Trump without the 2 provinces that have some of the biggest "trump" cards over the US.....oil/NG and potash.

Carney is Elite 101 and if he governs from the perspective of the Montreal-Toronto cocktail circuit, we could be seeing some real national unity problems.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

If Carney manages to pull the rabbit out of the hat and score a government I REALLY hope he does it with nationwide support. If he gets his gov't without a single Alberta and/or Sask. seat, there is going to be REAL trouble. It would be almost impossible for the country to put up a truly unifies opposition against Trump without the 2 provinces that have some of the biggest "trump" cards over the US.....oil/NG and potash.

Carney is Elite 101 and if he governs from the perspective of the Montreal-Toronto cocktail circuit, we could be seeing some real national unity problems.

It's pretty worrying to be honest. Hard to see an Edmonton or Saskatoon seat as doing much to change the impression that this election slipped out of their fingers and all the suspicions that will bring to the surface.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by samne

And Trudeau described anyone who didn’t agree with him as having “Unacceptable Views”. The Liberals are the Thought Police.

He didn’t say that; he said that there was a “fringe minority” within the trucker convoy who held "unacceptable" views (i.e., far right, white supremacist, etc.)

This got predictably twisted up in the right-wing online echo chamber, but the idea that he wasn't even painting the whole convoy with that brush, let alone everyone with a differing perspective than him. I think it's past time to put Trudeau out to pasture but Trudeau derangement is real. People have to calm down.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The absolute earliest one could be held would be under the following scenario:
- LPC leader is announced on Sunday
- New LPC leader drops the writ on Monday
- The minimum campaign length as decided by Elections Canada is 37 days
- 37 days would get you to Wednesday, April 16th. But Elections must be held on Mondays UNLESS Monday is a holiday, which would push it to Tuesday.

So the absolute earliest election day can be is Tuesday, April 22nd since Monday the 21st is Easter Monday.

I doubt we're on this fast of a timeline though. I do think the Liberals will opt for a shorter campaign, but I can't see them calling it within 24 hours of electing their new leader. I suspect what will happen is the leader and Trudeau will work through a quick transition period and we'll get a writ drop about a week after the new leader is elected.

So my actual prediction for when election day will be is April 28th. Maybe May 5th if they opt for a slightly longer campaign, though like I've said, a longer campaign does not benefit the Liberals at all.

I did previously predict April 28, but then I looked back at how long it took for Turner, Campbell and Martin to take office after winning the leadership and they weren't any quicker than the normal transition after an election. So I'm not sure how fast Carney (presumably) will actually become PM after the results today. My revised guess would be May 5 as I don't think the Liberals want to waste this opportunity and have a chance for tariffs to actually kick the economy before an election. Or for Pierre to get his groove back.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I did previously predict April 28, but then I looked back at how long it took for Turner, Campbell and Martin to take office after winning the leadership and they weren't any quicker than the normal transition after an election. So I'm not sure how fast Carney (presumably) will actually become PM after the results today. My revised guess would be May 5 as I don't think the Liberals want to waste this opportunity and have a chance for tariffs to actually kick the economy before an election. Or for Pierre to get his groove back.

There is no way that PP gets his groove back. The more Canadians see of Poilievre, the less likely they are to vote for him. Just take a look at the contrast in social media accounts for both candidates.

Carney is upbeat, optimistic, and speaks with conviction. Very positive, and patriotic. Just look at Carney's rallies. The momentum is clearly there. PP, on the other hand, is always mudslinging. Even the videos I have seen of PP discussing issues in the past, like affordable housing, he presents the problem very well, but is extremely vague, on how he will fix these issues. He is far too negative, and pretty much an attack dog, with no real solutions.

The fact that Carney and the Liberals are running with the comparison of PP to Trump, and it is working. On the contrast, PP and the Conservatives, are completely out of touch with the average Canadian, going on about the carbon tax. When we are being threatened with annexation by the most powerful country in the World, going on about a carbon tax, is tone deaf.

I would not be at all surprised if Carney not only wins, but the Liberals actually increase their seat total.

[LuluBobo]

No chance Liberals win any seats in Saskatchewan. Well, the northern seat is always in play for the three parties, but will likely go Tory too.

The liberal brand is very damaged here. Outside the north and Ralph Goodale they haven't won a Saskatchewan seat since 1993.

The Liberals have been irrelevant provincially since the 70s.

Under competent leadership, there are four urban seats that could go NDP. But I fully expect a Tory sweep of the province.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Brian Mulroney did a pretty good job of uniting Canada against the Progressive Conservatives.

I'm a Mulroney fan, but two failed attempts at constitutional reform was hardly unifying.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Er, if memory serves, it was more specific than that. He was referring only to the Convoy yokels, who were clangorously occupying Ottawa and blocking the Coutts highway explicitly for the right to be selfish and irresponsible.
Nonetheless, I do agree that Trudeau used language he shouldn't have. Of course anyone is allowed to hold beliefs of any sort, no matter how objectionable to others. Acting on those beliefs is another story.

This can be one-upped by the Conservatives promising to establish a "barbaric cultural practices" hotline - that was an epic move on their part to get people ratting on their neighbours and families akin to Nazi Germany.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

No chance Liberals win any seats in Saskatchewan. Well, the northern seat is always in play for the three parties, but will likely go Tory too.

The liberal brand is very damaged here. Outside the north and Ralph Goodale they haven't won a Saskatchewan seat since 1993.

The Liberals have been irrelevant provincially since the 70s.

Under competent leadership, there are four urban seats that could go NDP. But I fully expect a Tory sweep of the province.

If the NDP and Green votes collapse and strategic voting to Liberals plays out, that might be an interesting outcome - there were approx 12 seats in the last Ontario election where this happened to prevent a Conservative win.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I'm a Mulroney fan, but two failed attempts at constitutional reform was hardly unifying.

I suspect you missed the joke that was made

[trueviking]

The Green Party just needs to go away at this point. They have completely lost the plot. They stand for nothing.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

No chance Liberals win any seats in Saskatchewan. Well, the northern seat is always in play for the three parties, but will likely go Tory too.

The liberal brand is very damaged here. Outside the north and Ralph Goodale they haven't won a Saskatchewan seat since 1993.

The Liberals have been irrelevant provincially since the 70s.

Under competent leadership, there are four urban seats that could go NDP. But I fully expect a Tory sweep of the province.

The new boundaries for Desnethe no longer includes the areas of CPC strength like Meadow Lake which helped them win the district in 2019 and 2021. So unless the communities north of Meadow Lake Provincial Park are about to swing heavily from the LPC to the CPC in the upcoming election, then the Liberals actually have a good shot there.