Canadian Federal Election

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Canada 338 just did an update for predicted number of seats for each party when averaging recent polls:

CPC: 177

LPC: 120

BQ: 33

NDP: 11

GPC: 2

Source: https://338canada.com/


Now it's just a slim majority for the CPC.

Does anybody think if the actual election was March 10 the Conservatives win? When you ask a poll who would you vote for today it is very skewed as Trudeau is still there today. Totally expecting the campaign to take a lot of the lustre off of Carney and Poilievre could still win a majority but as of today it isn't looking great for him.

[Taeolas]

Those cliffs the CPC's numbers are falling off are quite impressive on 338's graphs. And realize there is still a lot of JT era polls bumping CPC and PP's numbers up in 338's analysis.

I'd say we are solidly in a Minority Government territory were the election held now (or soon). Red vs Blue is still a tossup; but it's still a huge drop from "100% chance of a CPC Majority" down to "56% chance of a CPC Majority" we're at now.


And to touch on the US dereail, the Republicans are getting roasted in their home districts by whats going on. Rich McCormick of Georgia was the first I heard of. They were lined out out the door for a townhall he did in a very red district, and tore into him so much he bailed on a CNN interview after the fact. Pete Sessions of Texas faced down a similarly hostile crowd in eastern Texas (another very red district). The people are getting pissed. The question will be, if the GOP will find its spine soon enough to get America on life support before it collapses completely. I'm having some doubts on that.

[MolsonExport]

CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin. CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin. CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin. CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin.
CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin. CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin. CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin. CarbonTaxCarneyHe'sJustLikeJustin.

(delivered in deep sinister red colouring).

PP, these ads are

Newsflash, PP, people have much bigger worries on their minds than the Carbon Tax.



The entire strategy of the Conservative Party seems to have been to hate Trudeau and carbon tax, now that Trudeau's out, their best idea is just "Carney is similar to Trudeau, please hate him too, please hate him please I beg you"


This is the only election message that I have seen from the conservatives, and I see it 30 times a day on Youtube. Are they a one-issue party? Nothing but negativity. Par for the course.

How about "Flush the PP" for the Liberals?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Canadians can’t get enough, just keep fanning them flames.

Says the guy who claims to be Ukrainian, and has hate in his heart for the Russians, since they executed members of his family 100 years ago, and the Russian invasion of 2022.

You, of all people, should understand the existential threat Canada faces, when a much larger nation wants to annex us.

[Hackslack]

What have the other Liberal leaders proposed of what they plan on changing, aside from adopting Pierre’s axe the carbon tax?

I’ve heard Pierre talk about utilizing Canada’s mass resources and getting them to the global market, as well as:

- addressing Canada’s opioid crises
- reducing government spending.
- reducing unemployment
- ridding the carbon tax , which every other Liberal candidate has since adopted Pierre’s idea.

All I’ve heard from Carney is ridding the carbon tax, addressing the opioid “challenge” (as opposed to the crisis in the US), and using emergency act to push national infrastructure projects (unless they go through Quebec). He had a town hall stating he’d use the emergency act to push through these large project, but then a week later he did an interview in French that he would absolutely not push them through Quebec. What else is he going to do as part of his platform.

Two more points:
1) I look forward to candidate debates. I expect, which I could be wrong as I admit I am wrong more than I am right, but I expect Poilievre to destroy Carney in all of the debates. Interviews I’ve seen Carney in sounds like he just babbles on and on, like word salad. At least Poilievre can back up his arguments with statistics.

2) I’ve realized that the polling has probably more to do with how much people in Canada despise Trudeau more than they support CPC, or support Carney. As soon as Trudeau announced his resignation the polls have lead and is leading to more balance. Canadians are simply completely done with Trudeau.

Give Carney credit for his previous roles as the head of the banks of Canada and England, he helped Canada through a financial crisis, but let’s not forgot that it was a Conservative government that steered Canada through the financial crisis.

Also, did anyone see that Carney interview that he plans on carbon taxing steel producers in the midst of a tariff war that will do permanent damage to the steel industry. Why would he make it even more expensive for steel producers during the tariff war? Complete nonsense. Not to mention those costs will be passed down to the end user. A perfect way to ensure producers will up and leave for a more friendly jurisdiction.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Werthers

It's amazing how often this Democrat narrative is bought and sold, it's the amazon.com of propaganda

Trump never took away access to abortion he just gave the authority back to the states for them to decide so the feds had no say in the matter. Fourteen states ageed to outlaw abortion and even then women in states where it's outlawed can go to a state where it's legal and with 36 states keeping it legal it's probably going to be a state right next door. So abortion laws are entirely up to each state, Trump didn't take away anything, the federal government should never have mandated abortion from the beginning, it should have always been up to the states

By the way, i'm not saying Republicans never engage in fear-mongering or propaganda because they do, it's just that this issue is the best example of bullsit in politics out there

Ask your wife, mom, and sister what they think of this?

Why is the party of "freedom" always trying to take away freedoms from others.

The US Civil War was fought over "states rights". States right to what you might wonder?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

1) I look forward to candidate debates. I expect, which I could be wrong as I admit I am wrong more than I am right, but I expect Poilievre to destroy Carney in all of the debates. Interviews I’ve seen Carney in sounds like he just babbles on and on, like word salad. At least Poilievre can back up his arguments with statistics.

Oh so he's actually going to show up?

PP's whining attack dog routine won't come across well against Carney's "only adult in the room" vibe IMO.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Oh so he's actually going to show up?

PP's whining attack dog routine won't come across well against Carney's "only adult in the room" vibe IMO.

Agree if he chooses that route just to attack. But I expect him to stick to talking points and specific stats. I also expect carney to dance around each subject the way Trudeau did and not actually address the issue. I have hope for bigger and better in our next leadership regardless of the leader’s party. I am hopeful for Carney seeing as he has adopted at least a couple of PP’s talking points from the last few years- ridding the carbon tax, getting goods to global markets, reducing government spending. It’s all praise for Carney since it is coming from his Liberal mouth and not a Conservative’s mouth.

Weird how Liberals are not realizing he is adopting a similar platform as PP.

I mean, implementing the Emergency Power act to get infrastructure built? Liberals would be up in arms if that was a conservative proposal.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Agree if he chooses that route just to attack. But I expect him to stick to talking points and specific stats. I also expect carney to dance around each subject the way Trudeau did and not actually address the issue. I have hope for bigger and better in our next leadership regardless of the leader’s party. I am hopeful for Carney seeing as he has adopted at least a couple of PP’s talking points from the last few years- ridding the carbon tax, getting goods to global markets, reducing government spending.

Weird how Liberals are not realizing he is adopting a similar platform as PP.

I mean, implementing the Emergency Power act to get infrastructure built? Liberals would be up in arms if that was a conservative proposal.

PP doesn't have all bad ideas, he's just extremely unlikeable, and tries to garner support from some of the worst parts of the voting base. The remnants of the PPC.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

PP doesn't have all bad ideas, he's just extremely unlikeable, and tries to garner support from some of the worst parts of the voting base. The remnants of the PPC.

5 weeks ago axing the carbon tax was no doubt a terrible idea according to Liberal leaders, cause what about climate change. But now that it is coming from a Liberal front runner it’s all of a sudden not a bad idea?. I understand PP’s unlikability, for me policies and ideas are infinitely more important than a leaders likiability. Look at Trudeau, Mr. Nice guy a super approachable, non-confrontational, and support for his party under his leadership absolutely plummeted. The abrasiveness of PP seemed to not have been much of an issue worked really now that Carney is running on some of PP’s main ideas. It’s the policy not the personality that should be, and seems to be, of more importance. Otherwise Liberals wouldn’t adopt the Conservative main point. I guess my point is that as the current leader of the opposition, fighting for his constituents and the electorate, it seems his methods and talking points have swayed the government in power, which I believe is the point of the opposition.

At least we will go to vote in the not too distant future.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

5 weeks ago axing the carbon tax was no doubt a terrible idea according to Liberal leaders, cause what about climate change. But now that it is coming from a Liberal front runner it’s all of a sudden not a bad idea?.

I support the carbon tax. But once Trudeau waffled on heating oil for some regions, I knew it was dead. I think it's bad policy to not have one, but here we are.

PP is campaigning like it's 6 months ago. It's becoming increasingly annoying and irrelevant.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I support the carbon tax. But once Trudeau waffled on heating oil for some regions, I knew it was dead. I think it's bad policy to not have one, but here we are.

PP is campaigning like it's 6 months ago. It's becoming increasingly annoying and irrelevant.

I think now more than ever it’s good not to have one, considering the tarrifs - Carney wants to still have it implemented on industry, which to me is ludicrous since they are going to be hardest hit by tarrifs, which is likely where CarbonTax Carney will fits

I disagree that h’s campaigning like it’s6 months ago. Ya he’s still labeled Carney with the carbon tax, and rightfully so in some respect as he is still taxing industry. PP would be a fool not to highlight that during this tarrif war. PP is also highlighting other shortfalls in Canada as well - opioid crisis, unemployment, getting resources to global market, increasing national defence. He’s talking about all these in his interviews, I’m not sure why Liberal supporters are so focused on his carbon tax carney message. His new slogan is Bring it Home, which speaks to making Canada better as a whole.

[Marshsparrow]

Honest question to voters.

What has PP done in 20 years? Does this instill confidence in dealing with Trump?
What has Carney done in 20 years? Does this instill confidence in dealing with Trump?

Canadians know the difference...

[bartolo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I support the carbon tax. But once Trudeau waffled on heating oil for some regions, I knew it was dead. I think it's bad policy to not have one, but here we are.

PP is campaigning like it's 6 months ago. It's becoming increasingly annoying and irrelevant.

I also support the Carbon Tax, and honestly either way we will still need to have some form of tax on pollution. Many FTAs we have made have included the need to have a carbon tax in one form or another. Not having one could be considered a form of subsidy, and could lead to carbon tariffs.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Honest question to voters.

What has PP done in 20 years? Does this instill confidence in dealing with Trump?
What has Carney done in 20 years? Does this instill confidence in dealing with Trump?

Canadians know the difference...

Agree. He’s been in politics his entire professional career. But… what the F had Trudeau done before 2015? Liberals seemed to not care, or seem to have forgotten, did it matter to them?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

Last week he started with reshaping leadership in the military. The FBI, CIA is well underway. He is systematically dismantling any "fact base" advisory capacity in the government. He wants any independent investigative and oversight dismantled. He wants any tax system dismantled. Rebuilding all of that is going to take years.

Some former democratic analyst was in the media this morning predicting a complete collapse of the Republicans within 30 days. By that he means they will lose the party discipline they need to get anything passed in the senate or house including the budget. Republicans apparently were off last week and went to their constituencies to discover their voters are not happy.

The damage is done. They are going to hit a state of gridlock. I would not be surprised if it result is the states pickup up the pieces and the US federal government becoming an ineffective layer that does almost nothing in the US.

We need to back away from the US as quickly as possible before it gets worse.

Whatever happens happens. I am less worried about what is going on there, than the impact on us. Way too many Canadians are invested and mesmerized by American politics. And then project that shit at home. It's partly why so many people blame Trudeau for the pothole in their street. That American political influence has warped minds into believing all of government flows from one dude.

To the extent we need to be aware of developments in the US, it's fine to follow along, but I always urge everybody around me, to focus on our own politics and our needs at home.

It's actually been depressing watching people completely ignore our provincial election while talking endlessly about the shitshow in the US. There are people in Canada who have zero clue who their MP, MPP and City Councillor are but know the name and opinions of the Representative of the 10th district in Iowa.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's actually been depressing watching people completely ignore our provincial election while talking endlessly about the shitshow in the US. There are people in Canada who have zero clue who their MP, MPP and City Councillor are but know the name and opinions of the Representative of the 10th district in Iowa.

It's because the reality of Ontario provincial politics is even more depressing. We're about to coronate Dougie for another super majority, precisely when Ontario is at its weakest and the province have been devastated by provincial and federal misgovernance since COVID. Toronto's unemployment rate is shooting for the moon, and Ontario has by far the country's worst housing crisis. Indulging in American politics offers Canadians an abstract escapism from reality.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Whatever happens happens. I am less worried about what is going on there, than the impact on us. Way too many Canadians are invested and mesmerized by American politics. And then project that shit at home. It's partly why so many people blame Trudeau for the pothole in their street. That American political influence has warped minds into believing all of government flows from one dude.

To the extent we need to be aware of developments in the US, it's fine to follow along, but I always urge everybody around me, to focus on our own politics and our needs at home.

It's actually been depressing watching people completely ignore our provincial election while talking endlessly about the shitshow in the US. There are people in Canada who have zero clue who their MP, MPP and City Councillor are but know the name and opinions of the Representative of the 10th district in Iowa.

But it is exactly that shitshow in the US that prompted Doug Ford to call a very early election to cash in on it, so....

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Whatever happens happens. I am less worried about what is going on there, than the impact on us. Way too many Canadians are invested and mesmerized by American politics. And then project that shit at home. It's partly why so many people blame Trudeau for the pothole in their street. That American political influence has warped minds into believing all of government flows from one dude.

To the extent we need to be aware of developments in the US, it's fine to follow along, but I always urge everybody around me, to focus on our own politics and our needs at home.

It's actually been depressing watching people completely ignore our provincial election while talking endlessly about the shitshow in the US. There are people in Canada who have zero clue who their MP, MPP and City Councillor are but know the name and opinions of the Representative of the 10th district in Iowa.

Iowa hasn’t had ten congressional districts since the 1930s

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa%27s_10th_congressional_district

I think it’s kinda brilliant a lot of Canadians know more about American politics than the average American. It’s not like it’s hurting us to have this knowledge and insight on American politics that a lot of people in the US don’t have due to extreme and often inherited partisan bias.

[MolsonExport]

“Events, dear boy,” then UK prime minister Harold Macmillan once said when asked what the greatest challenge for a statesman was. Never underestimate how events can shape—and reshape—public opinion quickly.

The past month of federal polling in Canada indicates that multiple events have caught the eyes and ears of voters. After more than a year of relatively stable numbers from coast to coast, all pointing toward a sweeping victory for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the next federal election, everything seems to have turned on a dime.

Of course, not all events are created equal. First, we saw Justin Trudeau announce his resignation in early January, after eighteen months of increasingly poor polling numbers. Second, the Liberal leadership race got underway, drawing varying levels of interest across the country. But third—and most significantly: repeated threats of tariffs, annexation, and the use of “economic force” against Canada from the Bully-in-Chief south of the border may have shaken many to their core.

https://thewalrus.ca/pierre-poilievres-lead-was-supposed-to-be-unshakable-it-isnt/



Pierre Poilievre: Just Not Ready.