High Speed Rail in Canada

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That makes way more sense. I should read more closely. That is probably realistic given how we build things. 300km/h is true HSR but hopefully there are express options to get those times down as 3 hours Montreal to Toronto isn't a true game changer. 1 hour Montreal to Q City or Ottawa would be and 2 from Toronto to Ottawa is right on the cusp. I think all three of those segments would be busies than the full Toronto to Montreal.

3 hrs from Montreal to Toronto is a game changer. Very few people will pay air fare for that. With pre-boarding times and travel to/from the airport from the downtown core, 3 hrs from Union to Gare Centrale is on par, or even slightly faster.

Basic math right now:

30 mins from Union to Pearson.
1 hr pre-board
1 hr flight
30 mins from Dorval to Gare Centrale.

And the above is pretty much an ideal scenario with zero wait times between connections. In reality, it's closer to 4 hrs door-to-door. Given traffic in the downtown core, even using Porter only saves maybe 30 mins. Not worthwhile given the cost and comfort of air travel vs. rail. This won't be cheap. But they'll be able to price it below airfare and have frequencies that match or beat air. Heck, Air Canada is part of the winning consortium. They will definitely be looking at how integrate air and rail.

Originally Posted by acottawa

It wasn’t a proof of concept. They never built another one and have stopped running it at high speeds. At best it was a failed pilot project.

And it is only 30 km. A conventional train would have made the trip in 10-15 minutes at a much higher frequency.

You don't learn without failing. Better to try and fail (and it's not a total failure given than they have service) on 30 km than to never try, and build nothing because all you do is talk. How much IP was developed and how many personnel gained experience? How much institutional experience was gained? I would argue all of that is probably worth the cost, over and above what a traditional rail line would have been. It's unfortunate the Wersterners have basically lost all risk apetite, and are now at the point where they don't even understand the value of trying.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You don't learn without failing. Better to try and fail (and it's not a total failure given than they have service) on 30 km than to never try, and build nothing because all you do is talk. How much IP was developed and how many personnel gained experience? How much institutional experience was gained? I would argue all of that is probably worth the cost, over and above what a traditional rail line would have been. It's unfortunate the Wersterners have basically lost all risk apetite, and are now at the point where they don't even understand the value of trying.

Probably none. It was a German technology imported from Germany almost 30 years ago, based on technology developed in the 1980s. The Chinese built the guideways, maybe some construction companies picked up some knowledge.

Maglev is not cost effective for the speed improvement (we will see if the Japanese route ever gets finished), similar to the reason we are not all flying around on Concordes. The Germans figured this out, but the Chinese wanted a vanity project.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Probably none. It was a German technology imported from Germany almost 30 years ago, based on technology developed in the 1980s. The Chinese built the guideways, maybe some construction companies picked up some knowledge.

This is the exact same logic that led to dismissal of Chinese auto development, electronics/semiconductor development, etc a decade ago. This is what the Chinese do best. Get in foreign tech and expertise, learn and improve. At minimum, they now have a detailed understanding of the tech and all the construction and operational difficulties of running Maglevs. And they know what the business case is. This is more than can be said for even the Germans themselves who never built anything resembling regular operational service.

Again. For the $1.2B the Chinese claimed this cost? Entirely worthwhile for the knowledge and experience alone. Westerners know the cost of everything and don't understand the value of anything. The Chinese are reckless on costs to be sure. But at least they understand the value of taking risks and learning.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is the exact same logic that led to dismissal of Chinese auto development, electronics/semiconductor development, etc a decade ago. This is what the Chinese do best. Get in foreign tech and expertise, learn and improve. At minimum, they now have a detailed understanding of the tech and all the construction and operational difficulties of running Maglevs. And they know what the business case is. This is more than can be said for even the Germans themselves who never built anything resembling regular operational service.

Again. For the $1.2B the Chinese claimed this cost? Entirely worthwhile for the knowledge and experience alone.

In auto or semiconductor there are economies of scale allowing you to produce millions of whatever at a decreasing average cost . The cost of maglev is not the technology, it is the enormous energy requirements and the high cost of the magnets, helium, etc. Like the Concorde it is not scaleable.

[Marshsparrow]

If Trump does the 25% tariff on autos - invite Chinese, Korean and Japanese in with 0% tariffs and huge incentives to fill the void.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

In auto or semiconductor there are economies of scale allowing you to produce millions of whatever at a decreasing average cost . The cost of maglev is not the technology, it is the enormous energy requirements and the high cost of the magnets, helium, etc. Like the Concorde it is not scaleable.

This is how you can tell the difference between a policy nerd and a technologist. You seem to be struggling to imagine the transferability of all kinds of skill and design knowledge. I can see the value in learning about all the power electronics, magnets, aerodynamics, etc. involved. They don't need to build another Maglev again, for the marginal cost over and above a normal rail line to have been worthwhile.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is how you can tell the difference between a policy nerd and a technologist. You seem to be struggling to imagine the transferability of all kinds of skill and design knowledge. I can see the value in learning about all the power electronics, magnets, aerodynamics, etc. involved. They don't need to build another Maglev again, for the marginal cost over and above a normal rail line to have been worthwhile.

To the extent those benefits exist they were accrued by West Germany in the 1970s. You seem to think that the Chinese invented, designed or engineered this project. They did not.

[whatnext]

Great, the country faces its greatest military threat since WWII and a lame duck leader wants to blow our wad on the Trudeau Trolley.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

To the extent those benefits exist they were accrued by West Germany in the 1970s. You seem to think that the Chinese designed or engineered this project.

Nope. Fully understand this was tech transfer. You don't seem to understand that actually building something, even if somebody gave you the blueprints, creates institutional knowledge. Or that working on one project can create skills and knowledge that can be transferred to a completely different domain.

I get where your perspective comes from. I see all those BA/MAs in government working as "policy analysts". People who have never so much as soldered a resistor to a board who think they understand technical work simply because they talk to engineers once in a while.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Great, the country faces its greatest military threat since WWII and a lame duck leader wants to blow our wad on the Trudeau Trolley.

Nothing is being blown. It's a 5 year $4B design contract. And it's a 10 year construction which the government of the day (in 2029/203) gets to decide on, after the design phase. It's also a project that is actually necessary to integrate all these regions better.

I bet you think every transit project is a waste too.

[Taeolas]

I'm very much a proponent for HSR, especially in the corridor.

I'm just skeptical about it because ultimately it is yet another high speed rail study.

I know we'll need a 'final' study to happen to finally get shovels in the ground. But until that actually happens, I'm remaining doubtful of it ever happening, even though it makes obvious sense.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am very happy to see TKLW left out. And even disappointed that Montreal-Trois Rivieres - Quebec City is being left in. People need to understand that scope creep kills projects. Not everything needs to be done in the first phase. It's the equivalent of saying a new subway line is disappointing because they only started with 10 stations instead of building the whole 50 station network in the first phase. If you actually want to see things built, you should be advocating for the smallest phases that are economically feasible.

For a project like this, it should have been:

1) Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal
2) Toronto-Kitchener-London
3) Montreal-Trois Rivieres-Quebec
4) London-Windsor-Detroit

Also, at least some of the blame here should go to the Wynne Liberals. VIA focused on Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal and later added Quebec City, because the Wynne Liberals kept insisting they were going to build an Ontario owned and operated HSR in Southwestern Ontario. If anything dooms this project, it's the fact that so many of those Wynne Liberals are part of Trudeau's policy cohort.

There could be some 'quick wins' by piggybacking some of the lines radiating out of Toronto to the west with planned Metrolinx enhancements/electrifications. Other than an agreement, there's nothing preventing an HSR from Ottawa/Montreal from leaving Union and either traveling towards Aldershot/Hamilton or Kitchener (hopefully including a YYZ through station in the future) along electrified, ETCS-signalled RER trackage.

You wouldn't be able to travel 300 km/h, but you could at least continue on at 160 km/h and add an extra 1.5 - 2 million people in your catchment.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Nothing is being blown. It's a 5 year $4B design contract. And it's a 10 year construction which the government of the day (in 2029/203) gets to decide on, after the design phase. It's also a project that is actually necessary to integrate all these regions better.

I bet you think every transit project is a waste too.

We are in times unlike anything we've seen. As you yourself mention, there is already a private sector solution for travel in that corridor. Let's save that "only" $4 billion for matters more pressing.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Nope. Fully understand this was tech transfer. You don't seem to understand that actually building something, even if somebody gave you the blueprints, creates institutional knowledge. Or that working on one project can create skills and knowledge that can be transferred to a completely different domain.

I get where your perspective comes from. I see all those BA/MAs in government working as "policy analysts". People who have never so much as soldered a resistor to a board who think they understand technical work simply because they talk to engineers once in a while.

It wasn’t a tech transfer, it was an export sale. This was the 1990s.

I know Musky tech/crypto bros get impressed by every little bit of technology and particularly if China imports it, but not every gimmick is the next big thing. Sometimes it is just a stupid vanity project.

[Nouvellecosse]

I think this pressing time is the perfect opportunity to invest in large domestic projects. Projects which would make work in an era of potential economic malaise, provide a positive and prestigious vision for something we can do on our own, and have immense practical applications making it different from some of the vanity projects countries embarked on in the cold war era. Great way to distract from the doom and gloom and build national confidence.

Fact is, we're the last G7 country not to have HSR and there are even many less developed countries that have it. So that absence was just another symbol people could point to when arguing against our legitimacy as a country. Which again wouldn't make a large project worth it alone, but it certainly adds to an already strong case.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It wasn’t a tech transfer, it was an export sale. This was the 1990s.

I know Musky tech/crypto bros get impressed by every little bit of technology and particularly if China imports it, but not every gimmick is the next big thing. Sometimes it is just a stupid vanity project.

1) Nothing is ever really an export to China. For better or worse.

2) Kinda hard to export concrete elevated track segments.

3) Even a toddler learns from putting together legos.

4) I think I have been critical of Musk and crypto bros long enough on this forum. Understanding the value of building something doesn't automatically make someone a "tech/crypto bro".

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

If Trump does the 25% tariff on autos - invite Chinese, Korean and Japanese in with 0% tariffs and huge incentives to fill the void.

Korean and Japanese are already tariff free. The ones built here won't be viable though without the US market. Meanwhile without a tarriff on the EU and Korea/Japan these factories aren't really viable. We can't buy 340,000 RAV4s if we have a cheaper Hyundai Seltos and a BMW X3 for not much more. (etc...)

If a 25% tariff sticks we would lose almost all of our auto industry over the medium term. The US would also lose a big chunk though also gain some from us. They have the possibility to add a 25% worldwide tariff keeping them competitive though. We do not adding to our difficulty.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Political calculation may be at play. Quebecois may go “WTF”* if a huge chunk of this project is in Ontario. That may be why LPC proposes “to Quebec City” instead of “to Montreal”.

Edit: You beat me to it.
* Plus précisément, “Ouate de phoque”.

yes, totally this. It is evident.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

We are in times unlike anything we've seen. As you yourself mention, there is already a private sector solution for travel in that corridor. Let's save that "only" $4 billion for matters more pressing.

There's also a private sector solution for travelling within a city. Guess we should cancel all transit projects? Hopefully, you can understand why making it easier to travel inside a city is good for the economy. The same applies to inter-city travel, particularly in a given region.

The Corridor will have 20 million people by the time this thing is built in 2040. And easily three quarters of that population will be in the direct catchment of this proposal. This project essentially turns a massive chunk of the Corridor into a more cohesive market. It will be possible to live in Montreal and work in Ottawa. Or to live in Peterborough and bid on professional work in Toronto or Ottawa.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

3 hrs from Montreal to Toronto is a game changer. Very few people will pay air fare for that. With pre-boarding times and travel to/from the airport from the downtown core, 3 hrs from Union to Gare Centrale is on par, or even slightly faster.

Basic math right now:

30 mins from Union to Pearson.
1 hr pre-board
1 hr flight
30 mins from Dorval to Gare Centrale.

And the above is pretty much an ideal scenario with zero wait times between connections. In reality, it's closer to 4 hrs door-to-door. Given traffic in the downtown core, even using Porter only saves maybe 30 mins. Not worthwhile given the cost and comfort of air travel vs. rail. This won't be cheap. But they'll be able to price it below airfare and have frequencies that match or beat air. Heck, Air Canada is part of the winning consortium. They will definitely be looking at how integrate air and rail.

Yes it would be very competitive for downtown to downtown Montreal to Toronto travel. But it doesn't change the dynamic between the cities. People won't go for the day anymore then the already do. It won't be highly competitive for suburban to downtown travel over the car and not at all for suburban to suburban though almost no train would be without massive gasoline taxes.

But the knitting together of Montreal to Ottawa and Q City and Ottawa to Toronto would bring benefits well beyond replacing air and some of the car travel on the route which pretty obviously isn't worth anywhere near $60 Billion. The economic benefits of bringing the cities together could be worth it depending on what you value.