Statistics Canada Reports II

[kora]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

France and the UK were regularly in the top ten, pre-COVID, no?

France only started entering the top 10 in 2021. The UK has fallen out of the top 10 for several years now. The UK averages around 5,000 per year, but has been on a slow downward trend.

[Metro-One]

Curious, are we getting a more diverse array of people from India now?

Forever it seemed that it was largely Sikhs that moved to Canada, I wonder if there are more from other religions moving to Canada now giving the sheer volume.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Curious, are we getting a more diverse array of people from India now?

Forever it seemed that it was largely Sikhs that moved to Canada, I wonder if there are more from other religions moving to Canada now giving the sheer volume.

I think so? As far as Indian cuisine goes, Vancouver has seen a lot more southern-style Indian food. Dosa is everywhere, for example.

[Dalreg]

Originally Posted by kora

I think this is the first year ever when neither the UK or the USA are not in the top 10. USA was close at 9,320 new permanent residents, down from 10,640 in 2023.

I wonder if my Father-in-law falls in that total? An Aussie who was on a green card in the USA for ten plus years has retired now in Southern BC from Seattle.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by kora

Immigration by metro area (CMA), 2024, top 10 (new permanent residents)
Toronto: 124,660
Vancouver: 47,575
Montreal: 38,700
Calgary: 31,140
Ottawa: 29,715
Edmonton: 24,055
Winnipeg: 18,400
Halifax: 10,540
Kitchener: 10,210
Saskatoon: 8,505

Immigration by country of citizenship, 2024, top 10 (new permanent residents)
India: 127,320
Philippines: 32,300
China: 29,950
Cameroon: 21,200
Nigeria: 20,380
Eritrea: 16,585
Afghanistan: 12,280
Pakistan: 11,940
Iran: 11,150
France: 9,940

“Permanent Residents – Monthly IRCC Updates”
Open Government Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda

Interesting to arrange this per capita (the percentage of each city's 2024 population estimate the PR increase represents):

Saskatoon - 2.31
Halifax - 1.99
Winnipeg - 1.95
Ottawa - 1.79
Toronto -1.754
Calgary - 1.75
Vancouver - 1.53
Edmonton - 1.47
Kitchener - 1.46
Montreal - 0.83

I have a hunch that the top three cities there are all likely to fall down this list this year, because a lot of their PRs come via provincial nominee streams. The feds have cut PNPs by 50 percent across the board, in every province, even though some provinces are far more dependent on them.

According to IRCC data, 93 per cent of Saskatchewan's economic immigrants came from the nominee program last year. In Manitoba it was 85 percent and in Nova Scotia it was 60 (though Nova Scotia also draws from the Atlantic Immigration Program, which was also cut by 50 percent). In Ontario it was only about 25 percent.

Provinces that draw from these streams are going to see their PR numbers drop more than provinces like Ontario and BC, where the nominee streams are a comparatively minor factor. Basically, the smaller prairie provinces and and Atlantic Canada are going to be disadvantaged compared to the largest four provinces. Not sure this is actually a fair approach, or a logical one given that the population-induced housing crisis is most extreme in the larger provinces (Quebec excepted, I guess).

[MolsonExport]

New demographic trends are boosting growth prospects in multiple Québec regions

The Montréal administrative region, which corresponds to the island of Montréal, is expected to have relatively modest growth (3%) between 2021 and 2051. From 2021 to 2024, Montréal saw strong growth due to an influx of temporary immigrants, but a downturn could occur by 2027 as this population is forecasted to decrease. The Montréal metropolitan area (CMA) should nonetheless experience relative growth of 13%, and the highest population growth in sheer numbers (+560,000).

Slight decline in most regions far from Montréal
By 2051, Québec’s four easternmost regions, along with Abitibi-Témiscamingue, could have fewer inhabitants than in 2021. The losses would be relatively minor in Bas-Saint-Laurent (-0.1%), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (-1%), Abitibi-Témiscamingue (-2%) and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (-3%). However, the population decline in Côte-Nord is expected to continue, with a more significant drop (-13%).

[kora]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Interesting to arrange this per capita (the percentage of each city's 2024 population estimate the PR increase represents):

Saskatoon - 2.31
Halifax - 1.99
Winnipeg - 1.95
Ottawa - 1.79
Toronto -1.754
Calgary - 1.75
Vancouver - 1.53
Edmonton - 1.47
Kitchener - 1.46
Montreal - 0.83

Probably the most impressive showing was Moncton which had 7,165 new permanent residents. It would easily top Saskatoon on your list

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by kora

Probably the most impressive showing was Moncton which had 7,165 new permanent residents. It would easily top Saskatoon on your list

It's true--London, Quebec and Regina came in just ahead of Moncton, but not by much. The fact that just in raw numbers Moncton beat out Hamilton and Victoria is really something.

[Nite]

76,000 job created in January, Unemployment falls to 6.6%


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250207/dq250207a-eng.htm

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

It's true--London, Quebec and Regina came in just ahead of Moncton, but not by much. The fact that just in raw numbers Moncton beat out Hamilton and Victoria is really something.

One thing that will never show up in those PR numbers is that a lot of folks initially settle in Toronto/GTA, then move to a cheaper nearby area like Hamilton with direct train (and highway) access to GTA employment centres.

Hamilton is still diversifying its population but maybe not with new arrivals to Canada like in its heyday.

[WarrenC12]

Surprisingly good news on the employment front. BoC might put the brakes on rate cuts, depending on what President Orangutan does next.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Wigs

One thing that will never show up in those PR numbers is that a lot of folks initially settle in Toronto/GTA, then move to a cheaper nearby area like Hamilton with direct train (and highway) access to GTA employment centres.

Hamilton is still diversifying its population but maybe not with new arrivals to Canada like in its heyday.

Statcan does have retention rate data at the CMA level, though because it takes several years to determine if someone stays or goes, it's of necessity a little out of date and doesn't reflect the post-COVID world.

Toronto's retention has declined, but it's still pretty high. I would expect that if we had data showing, let's say, three-year retention from the 2021 year of arrival, Vancouver and Toronto would have reduced retention (that would be in keeping in particular with Vancouver swinging from interprovincial gains to interprovincial losses) and Halifax and other Atlantic CMAs seeing improved retention. Just guesses though.

One thing I find really surprising there is how low the retention rates are in Regina and Saskatoon--both cities draw in a lot of immigrants, and have been fast-growing in recent years, so I'm surprised to see five-year retention rates hovering around 40 percent.

[drew]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

One thing I find really surprising there is how low the retention rates are in Regina and Saskatoon--both cities draw in a lot of immigrants, and have been fast-growing in recent years, so I'm surprised to see five-year retention rates hovering around 40 percent.

This I think is also an issue for Winnipeg. The provincial nominee programs are great for getting people in the door - but anecdotally it seems like a not insignificant percentage head elsewhere at the earliest opportunity - mostly southern Ontario.

[phone]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

One thing I find really surprising there is how low the retention rates are in Regina and Saskatoon--both cities draw in a lot of immigrants, and have been fast-growing in recent years, so I'm surprised to see five-year retention rates hovering around 40 percent.

Our growth strategy seems to be "bring as many people in as possible and hope that some of them don't move to Alberta"

[someone123]

Originally Posted by drew

This I think is also an issue for Winnipeg. The provincial nominee programs are great for getting people in the door - but anecdotally it seems like a not insignificant percentage head elsewhere at the earliest opportunity - mostly southern Ontario.

I guess a lot of what's going on here is that people want to move to Canada or any first-world country and they pick whatever program will accept them. It's not so much that they are picking a specific province or city while living abroad. When they arrive in Canada they re-assess. This could mean moving to a different job market, a place with different housing costs, larger city, different climate, and so on.

(And it's not necessarily the end of the world if somebody lives in one city for 4 years and then decides to try out a different city.)

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Surprisingly good news on the employment front. BoC might put the brakes on rate cuts, depending on what President Orangutan does next.

Toronto's still doing awfully poorly though, with the unemployment rate now up to 8.7%, which is a big red flag for Canada's economic engine. Toronto's clearly the biggest loser and casualty of Trudeau's myopic mass immigration policies, especially when employment rates in the GTA are lower than both Vancouver and Montreal.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Toronto's still doing awfully poorly though, with the unemployment rate now up to 8.7%, which is a big red flag for Canada's economic engine. Toronto's clearly the biggest loser and casualty of Trudeau's myopic mass immigration policies, especially when employment rates in the GTA are lower than both Vancouver and Montreal.

Sure, but Toronto is fairly represented when we look at the country as a whole. We all must bow down to the centre of the universe, but us outer rim planets are doing ok.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by phone

Our growth strategy seems to be "bring as many people in as possible and hope that some of them don't move to Alberta"

Anecdotally:
My friend and his family (parents, sister) were new arrivals in 1997? to Saskatoon.
By 2001, my friend moved to Calgary and his family followed suit in the next couple of years. He still has friends that arrived in a similar time period and they've built their lives in Saskatoon though. My friend's longest friend in Canada told me in the 2010s: "I could move to Alberta, but Saskatoon is home. The pull to stay is stronger than the desire to leave". He was excited to watch Toon Town's evolution, just didn't like the cost of living (housing) getting higher in a short period of time.

Saskatoon is still growing fairly quick, no?
Didn't the city reach 300k with the metro soon to be approaching 400k?

[someone123]

The theory that immigrants always generate surplus jobs and drive unemployment toward 0% hasn't aged very well. Of course it's obvious that there has to be some economic opportunity and the type of immigrants and their ability to work matters. If there's no opportunity, or the immigrants are unskilled, or they're somehow prevented from working (say by some board governing accreditation in their industry) then you don't necessarily get a net economic benefit.

If you have so-so or worse economic growth and add in chain migration with older relatives coming and so on it must turn strongly negative in a country with public healthcare. Importing an Uber driver and two sick parents for example is not going to help the government's bottom line. On the other hand, importing a solo young doctor who will work for 30 years could be a huge positive.

[phone]

Originally Posted by someone123

The theory that immigrants always generate surplus jobs and drive unemployment toward 0% hasn't aged very well. Of course it's obvious that there has to be some economic opportunity and the type of immigrants and their ability to work matters.

Well, Sask is tied with QC for lowest unemployment right now, so