Canadian Federal Election

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Poilievre is still very likely to win the next election. But he's going to have to play this right. Looking like a Trump bootlicker is not the winning look. Nor is talking incessantly about oil when auto workers in Ontario start getting layoff notices.

A million Ontario jobs directly or indirectly depend on trade to the US. Six figure employment in auto and parts manufacturing. If he doesn't look like he's fighting for these jobs, he will not be Prime Minister.

I'm not so sure about this for a few reasons:

- Trudeau, rather than the Liberals, was effectively the government brand as far as Conservatives were concerned. This will make a leadership change for the Liberals feel much more like a change to Canadians than it would have otherwise been.

- Carney has much better CV than Trudeau and Poilievre's usual style of attack wouldn't really work against him

- a confidence vote is far less likely to succeed with Trudeau stepping down and while a major trade war has been launched by the US - this will give a Carney government time to distinguish itself from Trudeau's government

- the trade war demands unity from leadership which really limits what Poilievre can do to define a new Liberal leader as it has a good chance of backfiring on him

- Ford is likely to win the election in Ontario again and that will dampen Conservative support federally in Ontario

[trueviking]

Poillievre has unquestionably been using the Trump playbook. Nicknames for opponents. Rhyming slogans as policy. Wearing clothing with catch phrases on it. Hangs out with truckers. Holds rallies not during campaigns. He’s a populist like Trump.

He looks off because he has spent three years yelling about Trudeau and the carbon tax. Now that both of those things are irrelevant he is lost. He’s flailing and is trying desperately to keep the carbon tax a thing because he knows if the election is about Trump he’s sunk. Not only has he made people equate him with Trump but his opponent is objectively more qualified than him to deal with it. Never having a job didn’t matter when not being Trudeau was enough but now it does matter.

If I was carney I’d call an election immediately after being chosen. More time only helps PP find traction again.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Poillievre has unquestionably been using the Trump playbook. Nicknames for opponents. Rhyming slogans as policy. Wearing clothing with catch phrases on it. Hangs out with truckers. Holds rallies not during campaigns. He’s a populist like Trump.

He looks off because he has spent three years yelling about Trudeau and the carbon tax. Now that both of those things are irrelevant he is lost. He’s flailing and is trying desperately to keep the carbon tax a thing because he knows if the election is about Trump he’s sunk. Not only has he made people equate him with Trump but his opponent is objectively more qualified than him to deal with it. Never having a job didn’t matter when not being Trudeau was enough but now it does matter.

If I was carney I’d call an election immediately after being chosen. More time only helps PP find traction again.

I’m not sure when the sweet spot will be to call the election, but I’m starting to think an October 20th is far enough away where it could actually hurt Carney, especially if Trump has a change of heart and refocusses his bullying efforts back towards Mexico.

Calling an election immediately and not even allowing a confidence vote to happen would certainly be a power move. I think they’re still going to need more movement in the polls to do that, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that happen, or wouldn’t be surprised if we have an late spring/early summer election. I think you may be onto something here… to strike while the iron is hot and Trump remains the definitive issue of the election.

Pollsters need to start asking Canadians between Carney and Poilievre who they believe to best suited to deal with Trump? As well, they should ask who they think will do a better job protecting our economy and national interests through this US-Canada trade war.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Calling an election immediately and not even allowing a confidence vote to happen would certainly be a power move. I think they’re still going to need more movement in the polls to do that, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that happen, or wouldn’t be surprised if we have an late spring/early summer election. I think you may be onto something here… to strike while the iron is hot and Trump remains the definitive issue of the election.

I think this is the most likely option if it is Carney. He absolutely doesn't want a no-Carney Parliament sitting with him twiddling his thumbs from the press gallery. Turner did the same thing.

[Taeolas]

I suspect Carney will wait and see how the TradeWar develops a bit before deciding on when to pull the trigger. if things seem to be stabilizing at a new normal with tariffs on both side and not much new action, and the polls are looking decent, they may decide to call it just to establish a clear mandate (like Ford's excuse).

If instead the Felon is retaliating and requiring the government to retaliate more, then pushing the election as far out as possible would be more reasonable; it gives Carney time to establish how he will handle things and make him look more like a leader with each response which should improve things in general.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I suspect Carney will wait and see how the TradeWar develops a bit before deciding on when to pull the trigger. if things seem to be stabilizing at a new normal with tariffs on both side and not much new action, and the polls are looking decent, they may decide to call it just to establish a clear mandate (like Ford's excuse).

If instead the Felon is retaliating and requiring the government to retaliate more, then pushing the election as far out as possible would be more reasonable; it gives Carney time to establish how he will handle things and make him look more like a leader with each response which should improve things in general.

If Carney wants to stay as press gallery PM it isn't his call it is the NDP. Parliament has to vote supply (which is a confidence issue) by March 26.

[Taeolas]

Carney may be in the bleachers until an election happens, but you can be sure that he will be controlling when the election calls as best he can (and as best as Justin would be able to from within the house). Sure it technically falls on the NDP and Singh to keep supporting the Liberals, but you can be sure there's a lot of chatter and negotiating going on, either t hrough main channels or back channels, to control the narratives from all sides.

So yeah, Carney may not be able to control things as much as he might (like if he had a majority government); but to say he has no say is a bit naive.

[shreddog]

One thing that is difficult to reconcile with “new LPC leader’ scenarios. Regardless of whether Carney or Freeland wins, both have presented policies (or opinions) that have the LPC moving towards the centre. The key aspect of this would be distancing themselves from “left leaning” policies like increasing spending, specifically in areas like expanding dental and pharma care. Meaning that key asks for the NDP would be ignored.

So then, once the Parliament is back, why would the NDP, who have now lost their ability to influence the LPC to introduce NDP-friendly policy, continue to support the LPC when the know that some/most/all of any increase in LPC votes will come from them?? Wouldn’t it make most sense for the NDP to pull the plug ASAFP??

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think this is the most likely option if it is Carney. He absolutely doesn't want a no-Carney Parliament sitting with him twiddling his thumbs from the press gallery. Turner did the same thing.

I guess it depends. He can still be an effective Prime Minister from the PMO, and focussing on improving our trading relationship with countries around the world not named the United States of America.

The world has changed considerably since 1984, Carney doesn’t need to be on the floor of the House of Commons to be an effective leader for Canada.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by shreddog

One thing that is difficult to reconcile with “new LPC leader’ scenarios. Regardless of whether Carney or Freeland wins, both have presented policies (or opinions) that have the LPC moving towards the centre. The key aspect of this would be distancing themselves from “left leaning” policies like increasing spending, specifically in areas like expanding dental and pharma care. Meaning that key asks for the NDP would be ignored.

So then, once the Parliament is back, why would the NDP, who have now lost their ability to influence the LPC to introduce NDP-friendly policy, continue to support the LPC when the know that some/most/all of any increase in LPC votes will come from them?? Wouldn’t it make most sense for the NDP to pull the plug ASAFP??

The only scenario that makes sense for me is for there to be a Speech from the Throne, setting out the Liberal platform, followed by an immediate call for an election. I suppose the new leader could hold off if there were an ironclad promise not to vote non-confidence, but that seems unlikely.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The only scenario that makes sense for me is for there to be a Speech from the Throne, setting out the Liberal platform, followed by an immediate call for an election. I suppose the new leader could hold off if there were an ironclad promise not to vote non-confidence, but that seems unlikely.

Or, if there was an acute national crisis which would make an immediate election unwise. The Orange Hairball might still have something up his sleeve.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Or, if there was an acute national crisis which would make an immediate election unwise. The Orange Hairball might still have something up his sleeve.

Only if there were an ironclad guarantee that there'd be no vote of non-confidence. Otherwise, the shortest possible election campaign would be the best option.

[WarrenC12]

I'm not sure when and where PP was for that video but I saw him at the Lunar New Year parade in Vancouver yesterday. He looks old and tired. Lots of people wanting to talk to him and get selfies though.

[Acajack]

There is a lot of chatter right now about Mexico getting a reprieve, and some people are wondering about the Canadian federal government playing tough guy and being uncooperative with Trump for the good of the party and for electoralist reasons.

If that turns out to be true (assuming it could be proven) there will be hell to pay, both from the Premiers and eventually from voters.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There is a lot of chatter right now about Mexico getting a reprieve, and some people are wondering about the Canadian federal government playing tough guy and being uncooperative with Trump for the good of the party and for electoralist reasons.

If that turns out to be true (assuming it could be proven) there will be hell to pay, both from the Premiers and eventually from voters.

Mexico was equally tough and unrelenting. This isn’t relevant.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Mexico was equally tough and unrelenting. This isn’t relevant.

Hope you're right. It's also noted that Sheinbaum actually got some concessions from Trump. (On illegal guns notably, which tend to flow out of the US into Mexico and Canada.)

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Mexico was equally tough and unrelenting. This isn’t relevant.

Mexico also said that they're sending 10,000 National Guard troops to their northern border to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the US, which was kind of one of Trump's requirements.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There is a lot of chatter right now about Mexico getting a reprieve, and some people are wondering about the Canadian federal government playing tough guy and being uncooperative with Trump for the good of the party and for electoralist reasons.

If that turns out to be true (assuming it could be proven) there will be hell to pay, both from the Premiers and eventually from voters.

It's obvious speculative BS. I've seen the posts you're talking about. There's no evidence at all that the government is doing this. And if there was any sign of this, you'd have Premiers and party leaders happy to jump on it.

There's a lot of folks just unhappy at watching this resurrect Trudeau.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Mexico also said that they're sending 10,000 National Guard troops to their northern border to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the US, which was kind of one of Trump's requirements.

They sent 15,000 for Biden. Trump gets played, as per usual.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

They sent 15,000 for Biden. Trump gets played, as per usual.

Exactly. Performative nonsense to give Trump the headline he wanted.

Not sure that will work for us.