Canadian Federal Election

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

@Marty McFly— Thank you for this very detailed response. Much appreciated.

As for what I said about PP being considered, “The Trump of the North”… I said many Canadians consider him to be that… not most Canadians. There’s quite a difference!

I think most would imply more than half, whereas many could simply refer to a significant chunk of the electorate… maybe 20%? Maybe less? Who knows, but hopefully we see some polling on that very question. 📊

Personally, I see Poilievre as more Trump adjacent

I think there’s definitely some striking similarities between the PP & DT, especially their penchant for doling out nicknames for their political opponents, playing fast and loose the facts and the truth, as well as a contempt for the mainstream media.

Above all else, I think they’re both pants-on-fire level liars. 🔥 👖

[kwoldtimer]

There's something just slightly off about PP these days. He was very weak this morning calling for Parliament to be recalled to deal with the crisis (how?), which is hard to reconcile with his commitment to bring down the government. He needs to get his head back in the game.

[Hecate]

https://www.youtube.com/live/pdL44PAWDuE?si=WuHcLKuCaQ-SfpDs

This is what I was waiting for. He denounced the Americans and asked Canadians including the liberals to unite and work together to tackle this crisis. Government should not be shut down right now. All Canadians need to have a say how we move forward.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

@Marty McFly— Thank you for this very detailed response. Much appreciated.

As for what I said about PP being considered, “The Trump of the North”… I said many Canadians consider him to be that… not most Canadians. There’s quite a difference!

I think most would imply more than half, whereas many could simply refer to a significant chunk of the electorate… maybe 20%? Maybe less? Who knows, but hopefully we see some polling on that very question. 📊

Personally, I see Poilievre as more Trump adjacent

I think there’s definitely some striking similarities between the PP & DT, especially their penchant for doling out nicknames for their political opponents, playing fast and loose the facts and the truth, as well as a contempt for the mainstream media.

Above all else, I think they’re both pants-on-fire level liars. 🔥 👖

Yeah this makes sense, you're just projecting your personal opinions.

You can feel whichever way you wish to feel, that's fine. Don't mistake your feelings for being shared by others though.

On the days leading up to the US election, Reddit was full of people talking about how likely a Harris win was. We all saw how that ended. If these same people took the information and data that had been presented in the lead up to the election they would have been a lot less surprised about a Trump victory.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Hecate

https://www.youtube.com/live/pdL44PAWDuE?si=WuHcLKuCaQ-SfpDs

This is what I was waiting for. He denounced the Americans and asked Canadians including the liberals to unite and work together to tackle this crisis. Government should not be shut down right now. All Canadians need to have a say how we move forward.

The government is not shut down. Parliament is not sitting. That is all.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Yeah this makes sense, you're just projecting your personal opinions.

You can feel whichever way you wish to feel, that's fine. Don't mistake your feelings for being shared by others though.

On the days leading up to the US election, Reddit was full of people talking about how likely a Harris win was. We all saw how that ended. If these same people took the information and data that had been presented in the lead up to the election they would have been a lot less surprised about a Trump victory.

This isn't just me projecting my personal opinions, these opinions on PP being similar to Trump are held by many other Canadians, and there's no mistaking. I just happened to think that, "Trump of the North", was a catchy, GOT style nickname for Pierre.

As for reddit being full of people talking about how likely a Harris win was... perhaps. However the polling was slightly in Harris favour, and if I recall correctly, 538 had it as a tossup with a 48% chance of a Harris victory in their final update before election day.

Crazy to think our election could also be a close one, when just a month ago, a conservative majority was considered a near certainty according to the polls. Oh how quickly things can change in the world of politics... especially when the "leader of the free world" starts acting like a bully towards the US's neighbour and closest ally. 😅

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The government is not shut down. Parliament is not sitting. That is all.

Without parliament running the government can’t implement new programs, spend new money, or undertake any action that requires legislation. That’s a pretty crippling situation.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Without parliament running the government can’t implement new programs, spend new money, or undertake any action that requires legislation. That’s a pretty crippling situation.

Singh is very quiet but I assume he will join some kind of unity government soon. The cry for an election is very likely to fade. Polievre's speech really paled next to Trudeau and even Carney. He can feel it slipping away. Which is totally unfair. He looked pathetic saying Trudeau should put aside partisanship and recall parliament when obviously it's him who won't put it aside. Even Quebec is getting on Team Canada. He is hoping he doesn't join Stanfield as the best Prime Minister we never had.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

He is hoping he doesn't join Stanfield as the best Prime Minister we never had.

To be fair Jack Layton was the best PM we never had.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

There's something just slightly off about PP these days. He was very weak this morning calling for Parliament to be recalled to deal with the crisis (how?), which is hard to reconcile with his commitment to bring down the government. He needs to get his head back in the game.

Imitating Trump was a good formula until Canadians got pissed at Trump. Now, every time he uses Trumpian nicknames, Canadians will be reminded of Trump. So now he doesn't know what to do. Can't stand with both Trump and Canada.

It's not just him. A lot of Conservative MPs are quiet. Jamil Jivani (college bestie with Vance) hasn't posted on Twitter since Jan 6th.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

There's something just slightly off about PP these days. He was very weak this morning calling for Parliament to be recalled to deal with the crisis (how?), which is hard to reconcile with his commitment to bring down the government. He needs to get his head back in the game.

There is nothing harder than having a victory seem inevitable and suddenly it starts to slip out of your grasp. He can still recover but he's treading dangerously. If Canadians turn on him opinions can solidify. He probably believes a fall 2024 election and he would have avoided all this. He might not even be wrong but we now live in a new universe where every viral video about apples is no longer relevant. At this point arguably he might be better off with a fall election. Once this either blows over or is the new status quo most of us are still going to want a return to the centre. Carney is still vulnerable with the same cabinet in charge. But ask us to vote now we might go with the safe pair of hands.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Imitating Trump was a good formula until Canadians got pissed at Trump. Now, every time he uses Trumpian nicknames, Canadians will be reminded of Trump. So now he doesn't know what to do. Can't stand with both Trump and Canada.

It's not just him. A lot of Conservative MPs are quiet. Jamil Jivani (college bestie with Vance) hasn't posted on Twitter since Jan 6th.

I don't think that's it. He just seems off his game. He even looks poorly (I thought) in the video. Maybe he's not feeling well, or not sleeping properly, or something. If he can't shake it off, whatever it is, he could be facing problems if the Liberals get momentum out of what's happening.

[MolsonExport]

Silent cowards. Just like how all the pro-trumpies in the CE got real quiet on J6 and in the aftermath. They slithered out from their rocks only after Fox Nooz had given them disingenuous talking points.

Trump is the biggest threat Canada has faced in the past 150 years, perhaps the past 200 years.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

This isn't just me projecting my personal opinions, these opinions on PP being similar to Trump are held by many other Canadians, and there's no mistaking. I just happened to think that, "Trump of the North", was a catchy, GOT style nickname for Pierre.

As for reddit being full of people talking about how likely a Harris win was... perhaps. However the polling was slightly in Harris favour, and if I recall correctly, 538 had it as a tossup with a 48% chance of a Harris victory in their final update before election day.

Crazy to think our election could also be a close one, when just a month ago, a conservative majority was considered a near certainty according to the polls. Oh how quickly things can change in the world of politics... especially when the "leader of the free world" starts acting like a bully towards the US's neighbour and closest ally. 😅

Let me ask my neighbours again after I recover from a slightly cold.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

There is nothing harder than having a victory seem inevitable and suddenly it starts to slip out of your grasp. He can still recover but he's treading dangerously. If Canadians turn on him opinions can solidify. He probably believes a fall 2024 election and he would have avoided all this. He might not even be wrong but we now live in a new universe where every viral video about apples is no longer relevant. At this point arguably he might be better off with a fall election. Once this either blows over or is the new status quo most of us are still going to want a return to the centre. Carney is still vulnerable with the same cabinet in charge. But ask us to vote now we might go with the safe pair of hands.

This sounds about right.

[Truenorth00]

Poilievre is still very likely to win the next election. But he's going to have to play this right. Looking like a Trump bootlicker is not the winning look. Nor is talking incessantly about oil when auto workers in Ontario start getting layoff notices.

A million Ontario jobs directly or indirectly depend on trade to the US. Six figure employment in auto and parts manufacturing. If he doesn't look like he's fighting for these jobs, he will not be Prime Minister.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Poilievre is still very likely to win the next election. But he's going to have to play this right. Looking like a Trump bootlicker is not the winning look. Nor is talking incessantly about oil when auto workers in Ontario start getting layoff notices.

A million Ontario jobs directly or indirectly depend on trade to the US. Six figure employment in auto and parts manufacturing. If he doesn't look like he's fighting for these jobs, he will not be Prime Minister.

So far, he's wrapping himself in the flag, same as everybody else. Unfortunately for him, the Liberals beat him to it.

[casper]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

So far, he's wrapping himself in the flag, same as everybody else. Unfortunately for him, the Liberals beat him to it.

PP also like to give people cute nicknames. Something Trump does.

PP keeps talking about common sense. The same term Trump is using for the tariffs.

I think PP may have even floated the idea of extradition flights.

PP policy statements have the same style as Trump. His solutions, like Trump are shallow. Like Trump he gets wound up on conspiracy theories around COVID and WEF.

PP needs to step away from all of that. That involves writing a new play book for how the conservatives go into the next election. I think he may well need until the fall to be ready for an election.

The dynamics of the next election have changed. Neither the Liberals or Conservatives are ready.

[kwoldtimer]

You'd think the Mike Harris regime in Ontario would have eliminated "common sense" from Canadian political discourse, but no such luck.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Poilievre is still very likely to win the next election. But he's going to have to play this right. Looking like a Trump bootlicker is not the winning look. Nor is talking incessantly about oil when auto workers in Ontario start getting layoff notices.

A million Ontario jobs directly or indirectly depend on trade to the US. Six figure employment in auto and parts manufacturing. If he doesn't look like he's fighting for these jobs, he will not be Prime Minister.

He's still the favorite but his odds have fallen dramatically. If it ends up Central Canada vs Alberta and we have to choose sides that's losing electoral math for a Conservative candidate.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

He's still the favorite but his odds have fallen dramatically. If it ends up Central Canada vs Alberta and we have to choose sides that's losing electoral math for a Conservative candidate.

Normally Alberta is a Urban-Rural divide. I don't think that is going to happen this time. It is going to be an agriculture-oil split.

The cattle industry is saying cattle moves back and forth across the border (sometimes multiple times). I have to say, I don't fully understand how that industry works.

We may very well discover that those in agriculture out went have more in common with the auto sector than they do with the oil sector.