Quote:
Originally Posted by Groundhog
Yes, using a logical fallacy is flawed logic. Thank you for presenting some actual numbers that we can discuss like adults. That said, your numbers are flawed. It’s weird that you only picked on 676 and not any other roads. Despite you sticking only to fatalities on one specific road, your SEPTA metrics expand well beyond death to include falling on the tracks and serious crimes. Many types of car accidents can occur other than those leading to death that are bad, but still, I’ll play along.
You said you would DIE if you took Philly public transit, yes? Ok, you state that 20 people died on SEPTA trains in 2018 and 2019. Well, in 2018, there were 22.31M riders on SEPTA a month and that dropped to 21.809M/month in 2019 ( https://www.economyleague.org/resources/...20SEPTA,%25%20according%20to%20the%20NTD). Assuming these 20 deaths occurred in one of those years (not over two years), that means you had a 1 in 13M chance of getting killed on SEPTA (if it was OVER two years, then that ridership number basically doubles, and decreases your odds of death by the same amount). For context, you are 69 times more likely to be hit by lightening (1 in 186,978) and 140,703 times more likely to die in a car accident (1 in 93).
But since you moved the goalposts, let’s play with all the other numbers you provided of bad things that can happen on SEPTA. Let's pretend that they all happened in the same year (they didn't) and that they're mutually exclusive accounts (maybe they are?).
183 people falling + 20 people dead + 87 aggravated assaults + 134 robberies + 711 serious crimes = 1,135 incidents. Assuming 2018 ridership of 267M, that’s a 1 in 235,877 chance of “something bad happening” to you on SEPTA. This is close to the chance of dying in an earthquake (1 in 204,785), but still far lower than getting hit by lightening or dying in a car accident (not injured in a car crash or getting in a fender bender, straight up death).
As I previously said, if you're scared of taking SEPTA, you shouldn't drive a car or even leave your house. It's simply too dangerous.
Here's my source, which includes multiple other odds of death
https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/
You’ll notice car deaths in the top 10 and “Railway passenger” at the bottom under too few to calculate. |
Invoking "logical fallacies" are a little more sophisticated than I need to respond to your flat out "misquote" of my original statement. I never said "I would die" taking SEPTA, I said ".......And you do know I could get murdered using Philly public transportation right?" This was my exact quote, and if you werent so quick to show off for your "cool skyscraper in group" so you could show them how dope you were at getting at "the outsider" you wouldnt have made such a mistake.
In addition, I chose 76 because the original challenge was specifically directed at me, and "I myself" coming from Brewery Town would use 76 to get to KOP. I mean, sure, we could use Conshohocken State Rd. or even Montgomery ave. or how about Lancaster Ave. Let's add all the deaths occurring on those roads as well "eye roll". However, that really isn't the point.
...and I couldn't resist; being as you're an expert with informal logical fallacies....like we cant Google the informal fallacies wiki page, but anyway, whats the fallacy where you state comparable statistics but conflate those numbers "probability" with behavior associated with said probability? For example, more people die in car accidents than lightning strikes. However, I would not suggest running out butt naked in the middle of a field during a thunder storm. However, I would suggest getting in a car to get to Atlantic City. Do you see how higher level logic works?
Thus, even if I were to grant your whole argument that, "SEPTA deaths small.....vehicular accidents big!", it has no bearing on the actual type of behavior you're engaging in!
....and even I were to still grant your whole argument that, "death more likely in car" what does that have to do with my preference? Maybe I'd rather take my chances with a car accident than take my chances getting shot or beaten with pipes on a train platform!
So to recap, according to the entailment of your logic.....the the occurrence of death from living is 100% so humanity should not exist! Living is "simply too dangerous." or we can first, not misquote people you plan on getting snarky with to show off for your "forum buddies" and then learn to read between the lines of informal discourse.
So let me restate/paraphrase my original response: I'd [rather] head up 76 to KOP to shop than take SEPTA to center city and risk being killed!
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