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Originally Posted by Wynnefieldest
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Yes, using a logical fallacy is flawed logic. Thank you for presenting some actual numbers that we can discuss like adults. That said, your numbers are flawed. It’s weird that you only picked on 676 and not any other roads. Despite you sticking only to fatalities on one specific road, your SEPTA metrics expand well beyond death to include falling on the tracks and serious crimes. Many types of car accidents can occur other than those leading to death that are bad, but still, I’ll play along.
You said you would DIE if you took Philly public transit, yes? Ok, you state that 20 people died on SEPTA trains in 2018 and 2019. Well, in 2018, there were 22.31M riders on SEPTA a month and that dropped to 21.809M/month in 2019 (
https://www.economyleague.org/resources/...20SEPTA,%25%20according%20to%20the%20NTD). Assuming these 20 deaths occurred in one of those years (not over two years), that means
you had a 1 in 13M chance of getting killed on SEPTA (if it was OVER two years, then that ridership number basically doubles, and decreases your odds of death by the same amount).
For context, you are 69 times more likely to be hit by lightening (1 in 186,978) and 140,703 times more likely to die in a car accident (1 in 93).
But since you moved the goalposts, let’s play with all the other numbers you provided of bad things that can happen on SEPTA. Let's pretend that they all happened in the same year (they didn't) and that they're mutually exclusive accounts (maybe they are?).
183 people falling + 20 people dead + 87 aggravated assaults + 134 robberies + 711 serious crimes = 1,135 incidents. Assuming 2018 ridership of 267M, that’s
a 1 in 235,877 chance of “something bad happening” to you on SEPTA. This is close to the chance of dying in an earthquake (1 in 204,785), but still far lower than getting hit by lightening or dying in a car accident (not injured in a car crash or getting in a fender bender, straight up death).
As I previously said, if you're scared of taking SEPTA, you shouldn't drive a car or even leave your house. It's simply too dangerous.
Here's my source, which includes multiple other odds of death
https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/
You’ll notice car deaths in the top 10 and “Railway passenger” at the bottom under too few to calculate.