Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

In the Canadian national mythology, Canada is like Switzerland where different national groups came together totally willingly to form a single country.

In terms of actual confederation itself (1867), this is true. Both MacDonald and Cartier had a hand in it. Motivating factors included a well armed US (post Civil War) and Fenian raids.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Don't make this gross. Mom was just a pawn in the loveless marriage that Grandma and Grandpa had. They were real brutes that stomped around, terrorizing the town.

In fact a more correct analysis would be: dad's father took advantage of the fight mom's father was having with his German neighbors to attack mom and rape her while mom's father couldn't react and defend her, and then he forced her to marry his son after he realized it would be too gross and ghastly to just kill and dispatch her body after the rape. Mom has understandably been ever unhappy about that marriage since then, trying twice to divorce, but couldn't decide herself to complete the divorce because she was afraid of the consequences of leaving the sweet comfort of the house.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

In terms of actual confederation itself (1867), this is true. Both MacDonald and Cartier had a hand in it. Motivating factors included a well armed US (post Civil War) and Fenian raids.

Indeed they did though it’s debatable as to how that reflected the will of the population at the time. Only 10-15% of the population was on the voters list. Anglophones probably made up 25% of Quebec’s population at the time, plus business and church interests conspired to influence the vote to favour Confederation. There were riots in Quebec cities and towns over the Confederation plan. Also even if one says that Quebec agreed to the deal, over 150+ years it has evolved to something way more centralized than was envisioned in 1867.

Note also that there was considerable opposition to Confederation in Nova Scotia as well.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

In fact a more correct analysis would be: dad's father took advantage of the fight mom's father was having with his German neighbors to attack mom and rape her while mom's father couldn't react and defend her, and then he forced her to marry his son after he realized it would be too gross and ghastly to just kill and dispatch her body after the rape. Mom has understandably been ever unhappy about that marriage since then, trying twice to divorce, but couldn't decide herself to complete the divorce because she was afraid of the consequences of leaving the sweet comfort of the house.

That's exactly what a gaslighting serial-rapist grandma would say.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Note also that there was considerable opposition to Confederation in Nova Scotia as well.

And PEI backed out of negotiations completely prior to the 1866 Quebec Conference.

Even in NB, Leonard Tilley lost a vote of confidence over the confederation question, only to win a subsequent election on the issue.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

That's exactly what a gaslighting serial-rapist grandma would say.

NB is well versed in gaslighting and historical revision.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

You're forgetting SERVICES. SERVICES.

A business trip from Montréal to Toronto or vice versa counts as trade in services.

And even for goods alone, I'm waiting to see stats proving that Ontario trades more with the US than with Québec.

Republic of Ireland is 1% of the EU's population. So it would be as if Québec separated rump Canada from a province of just 400,000 inhabitants. Again, it's not comaprable. Besides, Ireland is an island anyway, so was already separated from the continental EU even before Brexit. It hasn't changed much. It's not as if Irish goods need to transit via the UK. There are direct ship lines between the continental EU and Ireland (going through France, in particular ports in Brittany).

Ontario sold $25 Billion to Quebec in 2022. It sold $220 Billion to the United States. Now the Quebec number doesn't include some things that count as exports from Ontario to the US as things move back in forth etc but it shows the scale. It makes sense if you realize the economy of Ontario's US neighbours. (Michigan, Ohio, Penn, NY) is fully 11 times Quebec's.

Ireland might be 1% of population but it has a veto that Atlantic Canada does not. Atlantic Canada is 5% of our population and they are both 3-4% of GDP. Ireland exports to the EU via the landbridge. It was a critical issue of Brexit though an easy solve as TIR is pretty standard. Atlantic Canada access to Ontario isn't a huge issue either way. Customs checks.

Sure services are important and would have more issues. There would certainly be a short term drop in even tourism and the like as friction was added. I live in Ottawa and while I know people in Windsor go shopping or to a game in Detroit but it isn't at the same level of Quebecers coming to Ikea or going to a show here.

Maybe we could negotiate a full economic integration. So Quebec gets passports and the UN membership but loses equalization and pays us to manage their international affairs. I am certain post vote, like in the UK, they will realize that is a very bad deal. Especially as without Quebec we are likely to reduce regulation, taxes, supply management all putting pressure on Quebec to either do the same or establish regulatory autonomy.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Indeed they did though it’s debatable as to how that reflected the will of the population at the time. Only 10-15% of the population was on the voters list. Anglophones probably made up 25% of Quebec’s population at the time, plus business and church interests conspired to influence the vote to favour Confederation. There were riots in Quebec cities and towns over the Confederation plan. Also even if one says that Quebec agreed to the deal, over 150+ years it has evolved to something way more centralized than was envisioned in 1867.

Plus more fundamentally if the Québec elites agreed to form a confederation with Upper Canada and the Maritimes, that's because that was the only practical way that was offered to them to escape British colonial rule. In a position of weakness, you choose the least bad option. Of course if they had been given the choice in 1867 between: a- confederation with Upper Canada and the Maritimes, or b- being an independent country (perhaps with support from France), it goes without saying which option they would have preferred...

[MolsonExport]

The USA has most of the world's most valuable firms by stock market capitalization. It has a good share of the world's billionnaires, and many of the richest overall. It has, by quite a large margin, the largest proportion of upper class individuals in any large economy. These facts positively skew the 'average' wealth (GDP per capita) for the United States.

Any casual visitor to the USA can easily see that the upper and upper-middle classes are quite a bit more wealthy (in terms of sheer wealth and the proportion of individuals in these classes). At the same time, it is also quite apparent that at the bottom of the scales, the poor and lower working classes are considerably less well-off than their counterparts in Canada and much of Western Europe.

[Truenorth00]

Genuinely curious how Europe falling flat on its face economically plays in Quebec. I remember a time when EU and US GDP were neck and neck. Europe never recovered after 2008. The US has soared since. Yes, inequality is higher in the US. But raw economic power is allowing the US to do things that the Europeans just can't do. It's what is enabling somebody like Trump to bully everybody else. An independent Quebec, presumably we aren't all forcibly absorbed into the US, would absolutely get crushed in any economic discussion with the Americans. I presume Quebecers understand all this. So I'm curious how it's actually discussed in Quebec.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Genuinely curious how Europe falling flat on its face economically plays in Quebec. I remember a time when EU and US GDP were neck and neck.

People tend to confuse GDP at market exchange rates, PPP GDP, and GDP at constant prices. It is GDP at market exchange rates that has diverged a lot between the US and Europe, due to the overvaluation of the dollar, but that doesn't reflect an improvement in standards of living (ask the Americans who now pay extortionate prices for groceries, restaurants, rents).

Besides, the Trump administration want to deflate the value of the dollar to improve their exports, so this bubble in the value of the US dollar is coming to an end. I wouldn't be surprised if we're back at 1.30 USD for 1 euro within 2-3 years, and then the GDP of Europe and the US will magically look much closer.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

But raw economic power is allowing the US to do things that the Europeans just can't do.

Such as?

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

An independent Quebec, presumably we aren't all forcibly absorbed into the US, would absolutely get crushed in any economic discussion with the Americans.

In the fastest of scenarios, by the time Québec would effectively become independent, Trump would be on his way out of the White House or already out (unless he establishes a dictatorship and remains in power for life). Most of the Trump presidency Québec will be inside Canada. And after Trump it will probably be back to a Democrat president again wishing to erase all the horrors of Trump, as I don't expect Trump's policies to succeed, as in his first term.

[Acajack]

So there is no hope for a smaller country to have a mutually beneficial trade relationship with a larger partner?

If that is the case then we should merge Canada with the USA asap. If they wîll have us.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So there is no hope for a smaller country to have a mutually beneficial trade relationship with a larger partner?

If that is the case then we should merge Canada with the USA asap. If they wîll have us.

Yeah I find that argument dubious. It's more about not getting to have your cake and eat it too unless you are dominant. Even the US didn't get Canada to remove supply management or our cultural exemption (magazines were a big business when NAFTA was signed) and even Trump didn't gain much in the CUSMA renegotiation.

My point is there will be a difficult restructuring that comes with independence and Quebec's importance doesn't avoid this. Canada will still be over 80% of the GDP and probably more than that of the diplomatic and military heft of Canada so the US EU etc. will prioritize maintaining relations with the RoC.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

In the fastest of scenarios, by the time Québec would effectively become independent, Trump would be on his way out of the White House or already out (unless he establishes a dictatorship and remains in power for life). Most of the Trump presidency Québec will be inside Canada. And after Trump it will probably be back to a Democrat president again wishing to erase all the horrors of Trump, as I don't expect Trump's policies to succeed, as in his first term.

Trump is not a one-off phenomenon. This is something people need to understand. His movement represents a fundamental shift in America. Note how while the rhetoric changed, much of Trump's trade policy & foreign policy shifts basically just continued under Biden instead of reverting back to pre-2017 policy.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

The only 'glitch' with this scenario is the status of unincorporated territory of the US works with small island territories of only a few hundred thousands of inhabitants. It remains to be seen whether it could work for a large polity of 9 million people (soon 10) sitting on the mainland and bordering some of the most important US states.

In any case Canada is not joining the US during our lifetime, so the point is moot.

Puerto Rico has 3 million people, and the Philippines had 16 million people when it was an American territory. But you're right that neither is geographically connected to the American mainland like Quebec is.

I don't think it's as "moot" as you'd think. If the Americans absolutely refuse to let us have a fair trading relationship with them, we might actually be forced to join. In my head, the odds of the Stars & Stripes flying from the Rio Grande to Ellesmere Island within my lifetime (I'm in my early 30s) has gone from zero to maybe 15%. A lot will depend on what things look like post-Trump and how the US political realignment plays out in the next two decades.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes Alberta might do this. My point still remains that Ontario would want to maintain ties with Quebec and would be able to get Canada-sans-Quebec to comply, being 50+% of it.

Though Alberta probably would not do it out of simple anger or spite. The new or status quo arrangement would have to be very detrimental to Alberta. Not sure why that would automatically be the case. They would actually be freed of the equalization bogeyman and the most anti-oil province.

Also, at least for Quebec, it wouldn't care how the new Canada structures itself or even if it survives intact.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

But Alberta is also far less likely to be 'emotional' about Québec seceding (notice where the forumers here getting angry about the prospect of Québec's independence come from... never from Western Canada). So why would they want to exact 'retribution' against Québec if they are less upset about it seceding?

I think I didn't explain my point well. I agree that Alberta's braintrust is not going to be particularly upset about Quebec leaving - in fact they probably will think it's a good thing. In 1995, the Alberta conservative intellectual sphere actually was filled with a lot of op-eds indicating that they would like Quebec to vote Oui.

What I more mean.. is that Ontario & Alberta will have extremely different views of how Canada without Quebec should be structured. Ontario will greatly value continued free flow of goods & services to Quebec, and would probably entertain concessions to that effect. Ontario-based politicians might be willing to allow Quebec a voice in the running of the Bank of Canada if Quebec chooses to keep the CAD, for example. These sorts of concessions are likely to get a very cold shoulder from Alberta who would want to make a lot more of a clean break (a "hard Quebec-xit", if you will).

There's also the fact that Alberta is going to want a much more decentralized Canada than Ontario is going to want, but I agree that part isn't really going to concern Quebec.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Trump is not a one-off phenomenon. This is something people need to understand. His movement represents a fundamental shift in America.

We'll see, we'll see. People go from one extreme (2016: Trump can't possibly win; 2021: Trump is finished, he'll end up in jail) to another extreme (2024: Trump has changed America forever).

Trump's hostile trade policies are going to massively increase inflation in the US, which should lead to catastrophic mi-term elections for him. It's also far from certain the US senators will change the constitution to allow him to run again in 2028. And 4 years is not a lot of time to change things in a big and complex country like the US. And by 2028 voters will probably we as disgusted as they were in 2020, so if the Democrats play it right they should win the White House again.

And no, Biden did not act like Trump. For starters he never called Trudeau a "governor". In politics, style matters as much as substance. In fact style is substance.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Puerto Rico has 3 million people, and the Philippines had 16 million people when it was an American territory. But you're right that neither is geographically connected to the American mainland like Quebec is.

The Philippines were a colony. I know the Americans don't like to hear that, thinking they were superior to European colonialists, but it was as vile a colony as Malaysia or Vietnam. The natives were not consulted.

Québec isn't and will not be a US colony. And Puerto Rico is poor, so beggars can't be choosers. Québec is not poor and won't prostitute itself for a few dollars.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

In my head, the odds of the Stars & Stripes flying from the Rio Grande to Ellesmere Island within my lifetime (I'm in my early 30s) has gone from zero to maybe 15%.

I'd say the odds of seeing the Stars and Stripes flying from the Rio Grande to Ellesmere Island is about as high as the odds of seeing the Tricolor flying from Strasbourg to Gatineau. Let's be serious for a second.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Trump is not a one-off phenomenon. This is something people need to understand. His movement represents a fundamental shift in America. Note how while the rhetoric changed, much of Trump's trade policy & foreign policy shifts basically just continued under Biden instead of reverting back to pre-2017 policy.

Agreed, we already see this long-term realignment in play with the Supreme Court. The court will continue to be stacked with Trump loyalists, which will only mean a Conservative super-majority on the Supreme court for decades to come.

Project 2025 will also permanently remake the USA in many ways that will outlast Trump. I don't think the Western world has even fully appreciated the gravity of this change, and just assume Trump's some passing sideshow.

I wouldn't be surprised if MAGA brings out a Trump 2.0 that is much more polished and slick after Trump ends his term.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Ontario-based politicians might be willing to allow Quebec a voice in the running of the Bank of Canada if Quebec chooses to keep the CAD, for example. These sorts of concessions are likely to get a very cold shoulder from Alberta who would want to make a lot more of a clean break (a "hard Quebec-xit", if you will).

Yeah, but the majority of rump Canada's population would live around Québec, not in Western Canada. Manitoba to BC would make up only 42% of rump Canada's population. So Canada being a democracy, the will of the 58% is the one that will steer the country. Besides, I don't clearly see what Western Canada would have to lose if Québec is given a favorable treaty. It's not like it would take anything away from Western Canada. And vice versa, a harsh treaty where Québec would have to concede a lot would not benefit Western Canada all that much, given that they don't trade all that much with Québec.