For those in the ROC that could care less about Quebec separating (which is hard for me to understand, given how much the history of Quebec is so woven into that of Canada's, not to mention the incredible past and present contributions of Quebec to the Canadian "family"), all I can say is, well, they shouldn't be disinterested.
Rump Canada, post separation, would be utterly and overwhelmingly dominated by Ontario, which would comprise half of the post-separation Canadian population. By population heft alone, Ontario would essentially have a veto over major changes to the remainder of the confederation. Sure, maybe there are some other places in the world with such lopsided sub-national heft (the UK comes to mind, with the utterly dominant position of the English...funny how that seems to be a major irritant for the Welsh and Scottish, not to mention some of the (northern) Irish), but we are not used to this.
In Rump Canada, Alberta (and maybe Saskatchewan) would be sorely tempted to join the United States. In such a situation, these provinces, with their vast natural resources, would be very attractive to the Americans. Who is to say that these provinces (and perhaps others) could not be absorbed as nascent states into the USA? And if they go, wouldn't British Columbia also be tempted? And Manitoba?
Atlantic Canada? Separated geographically from the ROC by Quebec, would likely also be contemplating whether they would be better off joining the USA.
It is hard to imagine how we would be able to have enough of a consensus to start the process of breaking up existing provincial divisions. A Toronto Province? Ok, maybe, but would that just be the existing city of Toronto? What about the GTA? Northern Ontario? It would instantly become the poorest provincial entity in the rump Canada.
Bottom line: there is a good chance that many pieces of a rump Canada would eventually become absorbed into the United States. Maybe eventually, Ontario as well (I think it would be a "big loser" though, as the wealth of Toronto depends largely on its role as the combined New York City/Chicago/Los Angeles of the ROC...).
Would Quebec be better off on its own? Economically, it is extremely doubtful. Maybe after 30 years, maybe after 100 years, who knows? But for the short, medium, and foreseeable long term, probably not. Half a million Quebeckers (and not just Anglophones/Allophones) could leave, taking with them their wealth. Quebec's access to the rump Canadian market is not at all assured, and neither could it presume full membership in some post-separation version of NAFTA/CUSMA (and to be fair, neither could rump Canada make any such presumption). Quebec's sovereign debt (assuming that it would have to take its fair share of the Canadian federal debt) would be a weighty anchor, right at the time that Quebec would need to create all the agencies and concomitant bureaucracy now handled by the federal government.
The French language, in the short term, might in fact end up in a stronger position. But it would still face the pressures that many other regional language groups face, both inside and outside of the West. The onslaught of English will not go away, just because 250K anglos (say, roughly 40% of Quebec Anglos today) decamped to points west. A merged Canada/USA would not diminish the threats to the existing dominance of French in Quebec. Tightening up restrictions on the use of English within Quebec would just motivate more Anglos and Allos to leave an independent Quebec.
In short, Quebec would get a seat at the UN, complete control over its borders and much of its internal affairs. The French language, and the Quebecois culture might emerge stronger. Maybe. But not by much...and honestly, maybe it would even lose. The bilingual quality of Canada would disappear, and while Quebecois may not want to admit it, this bilingual aspect is without a doubt a net positive for Quebec and its culture, whether we are talking about existing minority francophone groups in Ontario and New Brunswick (very much still viable under the status quo, but in a rump Canada, who knows?), the hundreds of thousands of Anglo/Allo children in the ROC that are learning (or have learned) french (even if not becoming fluently bilingual), official bilingualism at the Canadian federal level and access to services in French in some provinces, among a great many other things. A loss of G7 status, and the geopolitical heft/relevancy in global affairs that this brings (probably also lost by a rump Canada). The loss of the Canadian passport. Internally, a great deal of acrimony among a huge number of Quebeckers that wanted to remain in Canada. Acrimony from Canadians with family/roots in Quebec, and who have a deep love for the Province and its people.
Yeah, I would be devastated by Quebec independence from Canada. So maybe you will understand why I get ticked off at foreign agent provocateurs, and the cosmopolitan dilettantes (who maybe spent a decade living in Quebec, so don't have the same skin in the game) that are pro-separation or indifferent to the fact.
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. (Bertrand Russell). Sweet Loretta fart thought she was a cleaner, but she was a frying pan. (John Lennon)
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(but Grok nonetheless said that in such a scenario Québec would most likely be crushed, because the US has a vastly superior military)
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