Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[lio45]

And yes, an outside observer would have his jaw on the floor right now when informed that the best argument against sovereignty is “we’re not sure we’re competent enough to govern ourselves, so we are glad we can rely on the adults in the room in charge in Ottawa”

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

If you guys weren't so provincially interested only in your own corner of the world, perhaps the forum would be more internationally interesting?

says the guy that only posts in one thread, in the Canadian sub-forum.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

And yes, an outside observer would have his jaw on the floor right now when informed that the best argument against sovereignty is “we’re not sure we’re competent enough to govern ourselves, so we are glad we can rely on the adults in the room in charge in Ottawa”

Who says that's the best argument?

The best argument is an economic disruption would be a massive shock and detangling from Canada and CUSMA would be devastating as evidenced by Brexit. Meanwhile UK was a net contributor to the central budget though Quebecers somehow don't accept that they are a big receiver from the rest of Canada that makes it even worse for Quebec as they'd also lose that revenue.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yep, you’ve mentioned that before, and you’re not alone, it’s an excellent point.

Support for sovereignty is typically at ~35-40% with Ottawa recognized as more competent than Quebec City baked in those numbers (it’s one of the best arguments against sovereignty). If the next PQ govt can actually pull off a phase of “Good Governance” while Poilievre turns out to be barely less bad than JT, I wonder what the sovereignty dynamic will be then…

This and a few other factors that were at play in 1995 are unlikely to be in the Non side's toolbox if ever we have a third referendum.

Among this is the fact that in 1995, French was still on the rise and riding the wave of francisation that Bill 101 had produced. Now it seems that Bill 101 has basically produced all it can in terms of Frenchification of Quebec society and French has begun to decline again. New measures are being considered but even if they were effective (hard to say at this point) it's unlikely the effects will be apparent within the next 5-10 years, which is when a referendum could be expected. The 1995 referendum was almost 20 years after the passage of Bill 101, so at that point we had hundreds of thousands of Enfants de la Loi 101 kicking around as proof that French was on the up and up.

Another thing is that Quebec is a lot more confident in its economic capacity now. It really depends on what measure you look at but Quebec has definitely caught up to the ROC and Ontario on a number of things. I think the main difference that remains (and will remain for quite some time) is still sunk capital and intergenerational wealth which Quebec (and especially francophone Quebec) has very little of compared to Ontario.

I travel a lot in both provinces and one really doesn't get the impression that the average family in Sherbrooke or St-Hyacinthe is less well off than their peers in Belleville or Peterborough. Au contraire.

And of course, the likelihood of a massive love-in demonstration by ROCers like there was in Montreal before the 1995 referendum is very low this time.

Of course, all of this has yet to have a positive impact on support for sovereignty and maybe none of it will. Who knows?

But it would be a very different campaign and the Non side is going to have a lot of work to do to find its key arguments.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's fair. I find his comments interesting and mostly relevant. The European and historical context and completely different world view and educational background of a someone from France adds to the thread. There are lots of people we disagree with here.

Quebec?!? Pffft... even the French from France don't like those guys! is a pretty classic and essential Canadian cope and dismissal.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This and a few other factors that were at play in 1995 are unlikely to be in the Non side's toolbox if ever we have a third referendum.

Among this is the fact that in 1995, French was still on the rise and riding the wave of francisation that Bill 101 had produced. Now it seems that Bill 101 has basically produced all it can in terms of Frenchification of Quebec society and French has begun to decline again. New measures are being considered but even if they were effective (hard to say at this point) it's unlikely the effects will be apparent within the next 5-10 years, which is when a referendum could be expected. The 1995 referendum was almost 20 years after the passage of Bill 101, so at that point we had hundreds of thousands of Enfants de la Loi 101 kicking around as proof that French was on the up and up.

Another thing is that Quebec is a lot more confident in its economic capacity now. It really depends on what measure you look at but Quebec has definitely caught up to the ROC and Ontario on a number of things. I think the main difference that remains (and will remain for quite some time) is still sunk capital and intergenerational wealth which Quebec (and especially francophone Quebec) has very little of compared to Ontario.

I travel a lot in both provinces and one really doesn't get the impression that the average family in Sherbrooke or St-Hyacinthe is less well off than their peers in Belleville or Peterborough. Au contraire.

And of course, the likelihood of a massive love-in demonstration by ROCers like there was in Montreal before the 1995 referendum is very low this time.

Of course, all of this has yet to have a positive impact on support for sovereignty and maybe none of it will. Who knows?

But it would be a very different campaign and the Non side is going to have a lot of work to do to find its key arguments.

I think this is all true and the economic outlook for Ontario vs Quebec continues to favor Quebec over the next few years.

On the other side the world is very different. A family friend is a sovereigntist politician and actually was the first person to tell me Brexit was a game changer. It's now clear CUSMA, CETA and many other trade agreements would be very difficult to re-negotiate. It's also clear though this was probably always true that access to the Canadian market would also not be a given. Canada isn't going to agree to status quo on key issues. If that doesn't work out right away it would mean without a hard border Quebec would have to follow whatever Canada does. Small example without rural Quebec maybe we stop supply management and buy out the farmers. If milk and cheese is half as much as in Quebec with no border it could devastate Quebec farmers.
Basically all of Brexit's issues except it's not a small northern Ireland border but Ontario is within an hour of more than half of Quebec's population.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yep, you’ve mentioned that before, and you’re not alone, it’s an excellent point.

Support for sovereignty is typically at ~35-40% with Ottawa recognized as more competent than Quebec City baked in those numbers (it’s one of the best arguments against sovereignty). If the next PQ govt can actually pull off a phase of “Good Governance” while Poilievre turns out to be barely less bad than JT, I wonder what the sovereignty dynamic will be then…

PQ governance would definitely be the wild card. Recently the theatrics PSPP threw at Legault for negotiating the new Churchill Falls agreement pushed my SO firmly back to the CAQ column. Sees PSPP's version of the PQ as completely out of touch with reality. Also helps that Legault is still a gazillion times more competent than Doug Ford.

Électricité de Churchill Falls : humiliant pour le Québec, dit PSPP
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/212...te-churchill-falls-humiliant-quebec-pspp

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Also helps that Legault is still a gazillion times more competent than Doug Ford.

As a previous CAQ supporter who has irreversibly fled a while ago, I agree with most people that they are total clowns, while also agreeing with you that compared to the clowns in Ottawa, who are really in another league, the incompetents from the CAQ almost manage to look passably competent.

At this point, I find it more funny than sad, we get the govts we deserve

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

PQ governance would definitely be the wild card. Recently the theatrics PSPP threw at Legault for negotiating the new Churchill Falls agreement pushed my SO firmly back to the CAQ column.

Your SO is an Ontario resident, right? If so he’s spared the worst of the CAQ’s incompetency (healthcare, education, SAAQ, etc.)

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

PQ governance would definitely be the wild card. Recently the theatrics PSPP threw at Legault for negotiating the new Churchill Falls agreement pushed my SO firmly back to the CAQ column. Sees PSPP's version of the PQ as completely out of touch with reality. Also helps that Legault is still a gazillion times more competent than Doug Ford.

Électricité de Churchill Falls : humiliant pour le Québec, dit PSPP
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/212...te-churchill-falls-humiliant-quebec-pspp

Yes, I found PSPP's reaction to the hydro deal was pure partisan politicking, something which he has distanced himself from and which helped him build his brand.

He's cast himself as the non-political politician, and it's surprising and disappointing to see him succumb to those games.

Of course there is still a lot of time left and this is only one instance.

PSPP still has a lot of capital de sympathie in his favour, so it's far from lost for him at this point.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Who says that's the best argument?

The best argument is an economic disruption would be a massive shock and detangling from Canada and CUSMA would be devastating as evidenced by Brexit. Meanwhile UK was a net contributor to the central budget though Quebecers somehow don't accept that they are a big receiver from the rest of Canada that makes it even worse for Quebec as they'd also lose that revenue.

The fact that pre-Brexit was a good situation, is actually an argument in favor of Quebec sovereignty: it shows that Britain, France, Germany, etc. did not need to politically merge into each other to enjoy freedom of movement for people and goods.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The biggest criticisms against them are provincial in nature. Housing, Healthcare have been ruined by Trudeau we here. Both prior to the massive immigration surge which absolutely made it worse but as we see now as we enter recession probably propped us up for awhile too.

Immigration and out of control NPR growth is the Trudeau government's biggest failure, and the housing crisis is amplified by their failures in immigration. When people blame the Liberals for healthcare woes, it's because the out of control population growth is overwhelming the overloaded healthcare system. Just saying it's "provincial" in nature doesn't take away the fact that Trudeau's immigration/NPR policies have pushed these two crises to their breaking point.

If the federal government exited all provincial areas and cut taxes and left the provinces to their own devices that would devastate Quebec finances. Ontario would likely leave a lot of that tax room on the table making Quebec uncompetitive. It might actually force separation and maybe they know this as they'd have to exit our customs union etc.

The equalization formula would still remain even if the federal government reversed the Trudeau area transfers. Also, your view of Ontario is very outdated as Ontario isn't Alberta, and barely stays afloat as a have-province. There is no substantial tax room in Ontario that would allow Ontario to keep tax rates anything more than a few points lower.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

Your SO is an Ontario resident, right? If so he’s spared the worst of the CAQ’s incompetency (healthcare, education, SAAQ, etc.)

SO's whole family is still in Quebec (spread out from Montreal to the regions), and we haven't heard many complaints from them. They're quite satisfied with their general QOL at the moment at least. If anything they're probably sick and tired of hearing us complain about Doug Ford's Ontario.

Healthcare is just as rotten in Ontario (the only way my SO could find a GP was because bilingual ones have much shorter waiting lists), SAAQ insurance is still so much cheaper than Ontario (like 2-3x), education is still much more affordable in Quebec and my SO picked ULaval over UT for grad studies...and that's before considering housing costs and rent.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

The fact that pre-Brexit was a good situation, is actually an argument in favor of Quebec sovereignty: it shows that Britain, France, Germany, etc. did not need to politically merge into each other to enjoy freedom of movement for people and goods.

Well Quebec isn't in a non political customs union with Canada so it would have to be negotiated. Britain was also in a political union in many ways actually which is the whole rub. They wanted just the single market and customs union without all the political loss of sovereignty. While of course they have a lot more than a Canadian province there was still many competencies ceded to the EU. In fact some competencies Quebec has were EU level decisions. Quebec can keep out bidders on contracts and professionals from other provinces should they wish to which Britain could not.

Bottom line a divorce and this would be an even bigger one emotionally than Brexit. The Rest of Canada would play hardball and hold the cards as CETA and CUSMA continued and RoC is 75% of the consumer market so Quebec would have to accept worse terms of trade than now which it would be very reluctant to do creating a spiral. I know these kind of threats and reality checks didn't work for Brexit voters but the example is there.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well Quebec isn't in a non political customs union with Canada so it would have to be negotiated. Britain was also in a political union in many ways actually which is the whole rub. They wanted just the single market and customs union without all the political loss of sovereignty. While of course they have a lot more than a Canadian province there was still many competencies ceded to the EU. In fact some competencies Quebec has were EU level decisions. Quebec can keep out bidders on contracts and professionals from other provinces should they wish to which Britain could not.

Bottom line a divorce and this would be an even bigger one emotionally than Brexit. The Rest of Canada would play hardball and hold the cards as CETA and CUSMA continued and RoC is 75% of the consumer market so Quebec would have to accept worse terms of trade than now which it would be very reluctant to do creating a spiral. I know these kind of threats and reality checks didn't work for Brexit voters but the example is there.

MOC would do what was in the interest of MOC, having first to figure out what that would be. Whether it would be "hardball" or something else is pure speculation.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Small example without rural Quebec maybe we stop supply management and buy out the farmers. If milk and cheese is half as much as in Quebec with no border it could devastate Quebec farmers.
.

One of the great mysteries of life for me has always been how Quebec farmers (and even dairy farmers, who are huge chunk of them) tend to be so pro-independence.

Though maybe they understand something that I don't.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Nope. Quebec has sizable shale gas reserves, but every Quebec government of all stripes has banned shale fracking and offshore O&G exploration. This is a red line for Quebecois voters.

This is a sore point in QC-AB relations. Quebec basically keeps itself poorer on purpose by refusing to extract this resource, but makes its fiscal math work with equalization payments, which are collected from a federal government that profits off resource extraction. So Quebec is basically acting all smug about not doing any dirty oil & gas work, while making their state finances work by using wealth derived from oil & gas work elsewhere, while shitting on AB for being "dirty".

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Agreed. At the end of the day there's only one taxpayer, and the federal government has the obligation to give those tax points it doesn't need to the provinces, and not suck up all the energy (and money) in the room. The federal government should be forced to stay in its own lane, focus on perfecting its own competencies (i.e. border security, foreign affairs, defence, interstate commerce) and not butt into provincial jurisdiction.

High on my personal wish list for Canada is to get rid of the Canada Health Transfer and offset that with a tax point transfer to the provinces. Sure, some poorer provinces lose out in theory, but equalization would automatically increase to compensate (the formula works by comparing average provincial taxation levels to average provincial tax revenue).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

MOC would do what was in the interest of MOC, having first to figure out what that would be. Whether it would be "hardball" or something else is pure speculation.

Keeping in mind that half or more of the "MOC" would be simply... Ontario.

There is a lot of talk about hardball on these trade agreements post-independence but the vast majority of Ontario-based corporations have at least a quarter of their business in Quebec. Probably more than that. I am just going by Quebec's rough population share in Canada, but given that Quebec is right next door, it could be more than 25% of their business that is in Quebec for many many Ontario suppliers and producers.

No matter how pissed they are at Quebec becoming independent, they are not going to want to lose that and the pressure on Toronto and Ottawa to protect access to that market share will be huge. Keeping in mind as I said that half of Canada-sans-Québec will be Ontario.

In terms of international trade deals it might not be Canada-sans-Québec that plays hardball with Quebec, but the other partners who might tell us divided frostbacks that we're not bringing the same thing to the table that we did when the deal was signed. And wanting to reopen or renegotiate things.

You might actually see Canada-sans-Québec and Québec form a united front and say "Hey guys, we're still the same market we used to be!" in order to save these deals.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes, I found PSPP's reaction to the hydro deal was pure partisan politicking, something which he has distanced himself from and which helped him build his brand.

He's cast himself as the non-political politician, and it's surprising and disappointing to see him succumb to those games.

Of course there is still a lot of time left and this is only one instance.

PSPP still has a lot of capital de sympathie in his favour, so it's far from lost for him at this point.

Agreed. My SO's feelings is that we haven't yet seen PSPP's true colours yet, and this is the first glimpse of it when things are no longer handed to the PQ on a silver platter.

SO's family back home was also quite surprised by PSPP's over the top reaction, and they're quickly losing their initial enthusiasm for him. Maybe it's because they have some Acadien roots, they see Maritimers as their close friends, and do not want to see Quebec taking advantage of them.