Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Alyson Townsend seems to the the most experienced lawyer of the bunch, I think she’ll end up being AG over McKee and Doucet, but we’ll see.

I doubt we will see three cabinet ministers from the Saint John suburbs, but only one from Saint John proper in Dornan, as that would risk alienating voters in SJ. Plus, there’s a significant chance the Liberals don’t retain a single one of those SJ bedroom community seats in the next election, especially if the PCs run a serious campaign next time.

I think we could see all three SJ MLAs getting cabinet posts, plus Townsend and Herron. Hickey is more qualified than Kennedy, imo. I could see him being tapped for a few different files, despite his young age. Moreover, I think Wilcott is a leading contender for Tourism, Heritage, and Culture based on her current role at the City of Saint John.

If there’s 12-13 cabinet ministers from the three main cities, including the premier, there’s lots of room left for Acadians in the cabinet, Holt will just have to go for a cabinet of 20+ ministers. More ministers is preferable anyways compared with what Higgs did with many ministers responsible for multiple files.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Position is required to be a lawyer.

Technically that is incorrect. It's actually a matter of long tradition rather than any statutory requirement.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Alyson Townsend seems to the the most experienced lawyer of the bunch, I think she’ll end up being AG over McKee and Doucet, but we’ll see.

I doubt we will see three cabinet ministers from the Saint John suburbs, but only one from Saint John proper in Dornan, as that would risk alienating voters in SJ. Plus, there’s a significant chance the Liberals don’t retain a single one of those SJ bedroom community seats in the next election, especially if the PCs run a serious campaign next time.

I think we could see all three SJ MLAs getting cabinet posts, plus Townsend and Herron. Hickey is more qualified than Kennedy, imo. I could see him being tapped for a few different files, despite his young age. Moreover, I think Wilcott is a leading contender for Tourism, Heritage, and Culture based on her current role at the City of Saint John.

If there’s 12-13 cabinet ministers from the three main cities, including the premier, there’s lots of room left for Acadians in the cabinet, Holt will just have to go for a cabinet of 20+ ministers. More ministers is preferable anyways compared with what Higgs did with many ministers responsible for multiple files.

If we end up with 4 I'd say Hickey is number 5. Strikes me as a bit of a lightweight with not much of a CV other than SJW type posturing on council and a knack of getting his picture in the paper.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Technically that is incorrect. It's actually a matter of long tradition rather than any statutory requirement.

True, but it's a bit more nuanced. An argument (https://digitalcommons.schulichlaw.dal.c...though%20an,need%20not%20be%20a%20lawyer.) in the intro suggests that:

The Attorney General is the chief law officer of the Crown. Among other things, they are “the official legal adviser of the Lieutenant Governor, and the legal member of the Executive Council”; “shall advise the heads of the several departments upon all matters of law”; and “ha[ve] the regulation and conduct of all litigation for or against the Crown”. These duties unquestionably constitute the practice of law. With some exceptions, the unlicensed practice of law is an offence.3 The purpose of licensing, along with the rest of the self-regulation of the legal profession, is to protect the public interest. Nonetheless, some Attorneys General are not licensed as lawyers, which is to say that they are not members of the corresponding law society. As Graham Steele asks, “Does it matter?”. More specifically, does this leave unprotected the interests of the government as client – or, more importantly, the public interest? Yes, indeed it does.

It behooves to select someone with the relevant experience.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

If we end up with 4 I'd say Hickey is number 5. Strikes me as a bit of a lightweight with not much of a CV other than SJW type posturing on council and a knack of getting his picture in the paper.

Hickey's career is shaping up to mimic Zach Churchill's in Nova Scotia. Student Council stuff, piecework for the Liberal party, elected, etc....

A longer term play for Hickey would be for him to earn is bona fides before being a minister. Secretary or chair of something.

[TitleRequired]

While not Atlantic Canada related, the forecast from 338 for the Saskatchewan election was interesting. While the results were within the 2 sigma margin of error, it was just barely.

This is the trend from the recent polling.



The last polls for the election suggested a close election, and it wasn't. The last points, labelled, are the only poll that matter, the election.

[sailor734]

For those with a TJ subscription. Frank McKenna gives quite a thoughtful argument of why Trudeau should go but also suggests that it might be too late. (Better for Trudeau to ride the Liberal plane down in flames leaving the next leader to start fresh) He also expresses the thought that about 10 years is a natural and reasonable lifespan for most governments and leaders.

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/if-i-was-trudeau-i-would-resign-frank-mckenna

Maybe the Americans got it right with a 2 term limit on Presidents?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

For those with a TJ subscription. Frank McKenna gives quite a thoughtful argument of why Trudeau should go but also suggests that it might be too late. He also expresses the thought that about 10 years is a natural and reasonable lifespan for governments and leaders.

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/if-i-was-trudeau-i-would-resign-frank-mckenna

It is the rare leader that does not have a 10 year expiry date. JT has accumulated a lot of garbage and detritus, and people have lost patience. He has to go.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It is the rare leader that does not have a 10 year expiry date. JT has accumulated a lot of garbage and detritus, and people have lost patience. He has to go.

I think any new Liberal leader might benefit from Trudeau going down with the ship. I suspect a fair number of his cabinet will go down with him leaving the new leader able to make a fresh start building his or her own team.

I suspect one advantage Carney might have is he could distance himself somewhat from Trudeau the way a long serving Trudeau cabinet member could not.

[sailor734]

double post

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

For those with a TJ subscription. Frank McKenna gives quite a thoughtful argument of why Trudeau should go but also suggests that it might be too late. (Better for Trudeau to ride the Liberal plane down in flames leaving the next leader to start fresh) He also expresses the thought that about 10 years is a natural and reasonable lifespan for most governments and leaders.

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/if-i-was-trudeau-i-would-resign-frank-mckenna

Maybe the Americans got it right with a 2 term limit on Presidents?

Recent enough change. Convention, that FDR managed to skirt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1mqrhINZsM

I wish the US adopted mandatory retirement like the Canadian Senate and Supreme Court.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I think any new Liberal leader might benefit from Trudeau going down with the ship. I suspect a fair number of his cabinet will go down with him leaving the new leader able to make a fresh start building his or her own team.

I suspect one advantage Carney might have is he could distance himself somewhat from Trudeau the way a long serving Trudeau cabinet member could not.

None of the rat pack (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Canada_Rat_Pack) managed to get the brass ring. :/

[sailor734]

Back to NB politics.

One topic that didn't get much mention during the campaign is the slow motion disaster that is NBPower. Between it's constantly underperforming nuclear reactor ( few hundred million more in unplanned costs this year), billions in costs coming for the crumbling dam at Mactaquac (yeah, so we built it with defective cement.....whoops! ) and it's 5+ billion dollar debt that is more than 90% of it's equity, NBPower could be something that throws a curve ball at Premier Holt and her spending plans.

Governments have been kicking this mess down the road for years. It remains to be seen if Holt can get away with continuing that process or if she will be the one in the hot seat when the music stops.

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/lepreau-headaches-could-add-up-to-an-extra-150m

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Back to NB politics.

One topic that didn't get much mention during the campaign is the slow motion disaster that is NBPower. Between it's constantly underperforming nuclear reactor ( few hundred million more in unplanned costs this year), billions in costs coming for the crumbling dam at Mactaquac (yeah, so we built it with defective cement.....whoops! ) and it's 5+ billion dollar debt that is more than 90% of it's equity, NBPower could be something that throws a curve ball at Premier Holt and her spending plans.

Governments have been kicking this mess down the road for years. It remains to be seen if Holt can get away with continuing that process or if she will be the one in the hot seat when the music stops.

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/lepreau-headaches-could-add-up-to-an-extra-150m

I hear Shawn Graham had a solution for that

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Recent enough change. Convention, that FDR managed to skirt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1mqrhINZsM

I wish the US adopted mandatory retirement like the Canadian Senate and Supreme Court.

Agreed. 90+ year old senators who need to be wheeled in and told when and how to vote are ridiculous.

75 or 80 seems like a good number

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

I hear Shawn Graham had a solution for that

That may well be why no politician wants to try and deal with the issue. Better to keep your head down and hope you are out of office when it finally blows up.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

That may well be why no politician wants to try and deal with the issue. Better to keep your head down and hope you are out of office when it finally blows up.

A nice background is this book that describes what we are connected to via iso-ne.

Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of Our Electric Grid Paperback -
October 13, 2020
by Meredith Angwin (Author)

[TitleRequired]

On the Saint John file; I heard a rumor that Gary Sullivan is considering a mayoral run.

C'est-ti vrai?

[drewber]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

While not Atlantic Canada related, the forecast from 338 for the Saskatchewan election was interesting. While the results were within the 2 sigma margin of error, it was just barely.

This is the trend from the recent polling.




The last polls for the election suggested a close election, and it wasn't. The last points, labelled, are the only poll that matter, the election.

It's sad to see how strong the NDP are in places like BC and Saskatchewan when they're non existent in New Brunswick. It shows you need to be a provincial party working for the needs of New Brunswickers not just towing the federal ndp line.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by drewber

It's sad to see how strong the NDP are in places like BC and Saskatchewan when they're non existent in New Brunswick. It shows you need to be a provincial party working for the needs of New Brunswickers not just towing the federal ndp line.

As long as this exists, I doubt anyone will take them seriously.