Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[TitleRequired]

And here we go again. N.S. election.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nova-scotia-calls-general-election-for-nov-26-1.7088620

[sailor734]

No surprise. He is riding high in the polls. Why wait for July?
Not a great look considering he’s the one who passed the fixed election date law but, Hey, that’s politics

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

No surprise. He is riding high in the polls. Why wait for July?
Not a great look considering he’s the one who passed the fixed election date law but, Hey, that’s politics

It seems to be the season to get rid of incumbents; or at least give them a good scare.

Last 338 poll was months ago. We’ll probably have a repeat of the Nb election with minimal polls.

Popcorns ready

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

It seems to be the season to get rid of incumbents; or at least give them a good scare.

Last 338 poll was months ago. We’ll probably have a repeat of the Nb election with minimal polls.

Popcorns ready

I'm sure the PC's in Nova Scotia have done lots of polling since then. Can't see then pulling the plug early unless things were looking good.

[TitleRequired]

Glen Savoie named interim PC leader per email from Doug Williams.

I'm assuming Higgs stepped down.

[TitleRequired]

The current trendline for the liberal party. Current trend using all the polls available on 338 suggests that the liberal party hasn't found the floor for their support; and that the mutiny could be justified. 12% decrease per year if annualized.

As the old quote goes; Denial isn't just a river in Egypt (https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/05/11/denial-not-river/).

Conservative support probably has found its ceiling. Nominal 4% growth per year if annualized.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

As the old quote goes; Denial isn't just a river in Egypt (https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/05/11/denial-not-river/).
.

Denial however can be a very, very deep river.........

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

I fear this post went unnoticed in the election thread because my second post started a new page this morning… but I thought this was petty notable, perhaps more notable than Holt becoming the first female premier:

Tania Sodhi became the first visible-minority elected to the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick and the second person of South-Asian descent elected to a legislature from an Atlantic province.

I find it pretty mind blowing it took NB until 2024 to elect a person of colour to the provincial legislature.

I know some of y’all said in the election thread that stuff like this or Holt being the first female premier doesn’t really matter… but if it took NB 240 years to elect a person of colour to the legislature, I’d say that it definitely matters and is absolutely significant. Also, it’s frankly pretty embarrassing it took this long to elect a person of colour to the legislature.

Susan Holt was pretty quick to push back against Trudeau’s announcement to scale back immigration.. (further differentiating herself from JT) and I say good on her! We need immigrants far more than many other provinces do, and while there’s no way to force them to stay here once they gain PR, there’s a lot that can be done to make them want to stay here in NB versus moving on to ON, QC, BC, AB, etc.

Investing in our cities, and following through with plans to make them more urbanized, livable, desirable places are logical priorities to focus on in terms of attracting and retaining immigrants. Same goes for making more representation success stories like Sodhi’s more common into the future.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Glen Savoie named interim PC leader per email from Doug Williams.

I'm assuming Higgs stepped down.

Higgs couldn't even publically step aside despite his concession speech all but confirming it

[TitleRequired]

I find it pretty mind blowing it took NB until 2024 to elect a person of colour to the provincial legislature.

Why would it be mindblowing when the population of visible minorities is quite low in New Brunswick.

Figure 11.3 Visible minorities, New Brunswick, 2006
This is a vertical bar graph showing counts of visible minority groups, New Brunswick, 2006.

The Y axis shows visible minority groups: Black, Chinese, South Asian, Arab, Latin American, Korean, West Asian, Filipino, Multiple visible minority, Southeast Asian, Japanese, Visible minority, n.i.e..

The X axis shows counts.

The counts are as follows:

Black: 4,455
Chinese: 2,450
South Asian: 1,960
Arab: 840
Latin American: 720
Korean: 625
West Asian: 550
Filipino: 530
Multiple visible minority: 455
Southeast Asian: 445
Japanese: 170
Visible minority, n.i.e.: 150

ref: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recen...&VIEW=D&PRCODE=13&TOPIC_ID=11&format=jpg

In this case, the then population of South Asians was 0.27% of the total population. Out of this small population, how many have run for public office, or attempted to run?

I'm often reminded that the left places overt emphasis on race, when in actual fact that it was prescribed over 50 years ago in an iconic sermon to consider the character of someone and not the colour of their skin. A lesson that the left has forgotten.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Why would it be mindblowing when the population of visible minorities is quite low in New Brunswick.



ref: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recen...&VIEW=D&PRCODE=13&TOPIC_ID=11&format=jpg

In this case, the then population of South Asians was 0.27% of the total population. Out of this small population, how many have run for public office, or attempted to run?

I'm often reminded that the left places overt emphasis on race, when in actual fact that it was prescribed over 50 years ago in an iconic sermon to consider the character of someone and not the colour of their skin. A lesson that the left has forgotten.

That ignore list trick is really working out for you, my friend

iirc, Steeves lost by 250 votes in MonctonNorthWest. I think it’s safe to say more than 250 South Asian voters moved into that riding since the last election. Some on this forum, including our resident “MonctonExpert”, were confident he’d be re-elected, especially since they’d never even heard of Sodhi. Despite vote splitting from the Greens, Sodhi won the seat, and new, South Asian voters in Moncton Northwest likely made a significant impact on the electoral outcome.

It’s mind blowing it took until 2024 to elect a person of colour to the NB legislature, because Canada has been a multicultural country for many, many decades now. It’s been 16 years since Obama was elected President of the United States… it took NB 16 years longer to elect a single person of colour as a mere MLA than it took the United States (a country with far more racism than NB) to elect a person of colour to the most powerful political office in the world.

There’s only 49 seats in the NB Legislature, but there’s likely well over 50,000 visible minorities now living in NB. (The stats you provided are from 2006, btw) So yeah, it’s still pretty mind blowing it’s taken this long for one single person of colour to get elected as an MLA.

Why didn’t it happen before 2024? There’s a myriad of reasons as to why it took this long, but even based on your 2006 numbers when NB was much whiter, there were still tens of thousands of visible minorities and only 55 seats in the legislature… yet not a single person of colour was elected until 2024.

As for Dr. King’s “I Have a Dream” speech, I don’t think the message it lesson has been lost on my part or others saying that it matters that NB finally elected a person of colour to the legislature. I’m not some ultra woke leftist who thinks you should vote for visible minorities and vote against white candidates I think that type of thinking it utterly nonsensical. Nonetheless, I think it matters that Sodhi was elected as the first person of colour of the NB Legislature, and it’s something we can all be proud about and see as a sign of progress and positive change, even if some of us voted directly against her.

I guess you’re a bit of a post modernist who thinks nothing matters in this regard, and that’s fine… but don’t try and paint me and others as woke leftists who missed the entire point of Dr. Kings speech, because we happen to think that NB electing its first person of colour to the legislature is a significant sign of progress. I think Sodhi’s historic victory is something that transcends the political spectrum and is something that all New Brunswickers can be proud of regardless of their political ideologies or ethno-religious backgrounds. It’s a sign of progress, don’t you think?

[MonctonRad]

The most interesting thing to see is if Sodhi becomes a default "diversity hire" in cabinet or not. Holt has many people expecting cabinet posts (especially longsuffering Acadians from the north). Will Holt upset the applecart and disappoint some of her caucus by appointing a new Canadian (she's only been here for about six years) with only basic English skills????

Maybe this will tell us after all whether or not Holt is truly a Trudeau Liberal (something she avoids like the plague).

No offence to Sodhi by the way. She seems like a nice lady and very sincere. In a federal cabinet, racial representation would be more of a consideration than in a provincial cabinet (at least in NB, Ontario might be a different story). In NB, linguistic representation is far more important.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The most interesting thing to see is if Sodhi becomes a default "diversity hire" in cabinet or not. Holt has many people expecting cabinet posts (especially longsuffering Acadians from the north). Will Holt upset the applecart and disappoint some of her caucus by appointing a new Canadian (she's only been here for about six years) with only basic English skills????

Maybe this will tell us after all whether or not Holt is truly a Trudeau Liberal (something she avoids like the plague).

No offence to Sodhi by the way. She seems like a nice lady and very sincere. In a federal cabinet, racial representation would be more of a consideration than in a provincial cabinet (at least in NB, Ontario might be a different story). In NB, linguistic representation is far more important.

The size of the cabinet will be interesting. At the end there were 16 ministers.

With changes Federally on immigration, a safe space for anyone is the immigration file. Ain't nothing gonna happen here.

A higher risk assignment would be the Indigenous Affairs file. Requires a bit more negotiation skills; and has the high likelihood for conflict. Doubtful anyone would volunteer?

We'll know in less than a week.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The most interesting thing to see is if Sodhi becomes a default "diversity hire" in cabinet or not. Holt has many people expecting cabinet posts (especially longsuffering Acadians from the north). Will Holt upset the applecart and disappoint some of her caucus by appointing a new Canadian (she's only been here for about six years) with only basic English skills????

Maybe this will tell us after all whether or not Holt is truly a Trudeau Liberal (something she avoids like the plague).

No offence to Sodhi by the way. She seems like a nice lady and very sincere. In a federal cabinet, racial representation would be more of a consideration than in a provincial cabinet (at least in NB, Ontario might be a different story). In NB, linguistic representation is far more important.

“No offence to Sodhi”, but you mention her possibly being a “diversity hire”, having only “basic English skills”, and “only been here for about six years”… Quite a lot to be offended by there, Doc

Linguistic representation will also be important in terms of keeping those anglophone seats. Rothesay, Quispamsis, Hampton, and Hanwell/New Maryland might be long shots to retain, but that still leaves them with 27 seats, many of which are Anglophone seats in the three major cities, which will be key to their reelection. Plus, there’s always the possibility of expanding the seats in the legislature back to 55+.




Considering Sodhi’s background in real estate and law and her passion according to this post, Minister of NB Housing and/or Social Development wouldn’t be totally out of the question. India gets things built a hell of a lot faster than Canada, so she might be quite a good fit for the housing file. Minister responsible for Immigration could be a distinct possibility for Sodhi too, as I believe she is the only immigrant member of the Liberal caucus.

While Higgs only had 16 cabinet ministers by the end, they were responsible for 27 different files. It’s not out of the question for Holt to have 20 cabinet ministers or more.

I could see Hickey being named Minister responsible for Seniors. Could also see Kate Wilcott tapped for Tourism, Heritage, and Culture, given her current role at the City of Saint John as Arts and Culture coordinator. I’ll post my full prediction list in the election thread before they are sworn in.

[sailor734]

It's going to be interesting. Holt has a lot of Francophone veteran MLA's who will be looking for a seat at the table. She also has some strong candidates in the Anglo south newly elected. I wonder what kind of promises she made to recruit some of them?

Given that Higgs had virtually no MLAs from the North the cabinet seat distribution was necessarily concentrated. If you include Hampton Saint John had what? 5 ministers plus the premier? Shepard, Holder, Dunn, Fleming, Crossman and Higgs. Unless Holt grows the cabinet to 20 or so I'm not sure we will see more than 3, maybe 4 this time around.

I'm not sure either Wilmott or Hickey have the gravitas to make the cut.

The pundits are saying Kennedy by virtue of beating Higgs but I'm not 100% convinced that's enough to make him a shoo-in. Dornan for sure and probably Herron ....I think number three would be Townsend or Kennedy.

However, if Holt decides to go more "Trudeau Liberal virtue signaling because it's 2015" then all bets are off.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

It's going to be interesting. Holt has a lot of Francophone veteran MLA's who will be looking for a seat at the table. She also has some strong candidates in the Anglo south newly elected. I wonder what kind of promises she made to recruit some of them?

Given that Higgs had virtually no MLAs from the North the cabinet seat distribution was necessarily concentrated. If you include Hampton Saint John had what? 5 ministers plus the premier? Shepard, Holder, Dunn, Fleming, Crossman and Higgs. Unless Holt grows the cabinet to 20 or so I'm not sure we will see more than 3, maybe 4 this time around.

I'm not sure either Wilmott or Hickey have the gravitas to make the cut.

The pundits are saying Kennedy by virtue of beating Higgs but I'm not 100% convinced that's enough to make him a shoo-in. Dornan for sure and probably Herron ....I think number three would be Townsend or Kennedy.

However, if Holt decides to go more "Trudeau Liberal virtue signaling because it's 2015" then all bets are off.

Are there many lawyers for AG?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

It's going to be interesting. Holt has a lot of Francophone veteran MLA's who will be looking for a seat at the table. She also has some strong candidates in the Anglo south newly elected. I wonder what kind of promises she made to recruit some of them?

And this is what I was getting at.

Holt has a lot of well qualified anglophones from the south expecting to get into cabinet, as well as a lot of loyal veteran francophone soldiers from the north looking for their reward after many years of service.

If Sodhi sneaks into cabinet as a rookie MLA with not much professional or street cred, there will only be one reason why she is there.......

So, is Holt a Trudeau Liberal, or not...........

We'll soon see,

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Are there many lawyers for AG?

Only three I think. Allison Townsend in Rothesay is a lawyer as are Rob McKee and Alexandre Doucet in Moncton.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Only three I think. Allison Townsend in Rothesay is a lawyer as are Rob McKee and Alexandre Doucet in Moncton.

Position is required to be a lawyer. McKee would be a shoe in, provided his longer experience as an mla.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And this is what I was getting at.

Holt has a lot of well qualified anglophones from the south expecting to get into cabinet, as well as a lot of loyal veteran francophone soldiers from the north looking for their reward after many years of service.

If Sodhi sneaks into cabinet as a rookie MLA with not much professional or street cred, there will only be one reason why she is there.......

So, is Holt a Trudeau Liberal, or not...........

We'll soon see,

Holt appointing Sodhi to cabinet would not be proof Holt is a Trudeau Liberal, lmfao. Come on, that’s like beyond absurd. You know next to nothing about her. If the only immigrant in the Liberal caucus became the Minister responsible for Immigration, I don’t think anyone could justifiably have an issue with that pick. Would you actually have a problem with that pick?

Let’s see how many cabinet ministers Holt goes with. There’s 27 files as it is, it wouldn’t be ridiculous if she went with 22 cabinet ministers or something.

What I find ridiculous is how Higgs gave an absolute fossil like Greg Turner with no university education four separate ministerial files. Turner was also a rookie MLA, and just because you “know him” from running a clothing store, that didn’t make him qualified for four separate files including immigration. I think Sodhi is far more qualified to be Minister responsible for Immigration than Greg Turner ever was.

This fixation with comparing everything she does with Trudeau (before she’s even been sworn in) is simply absurd. I understand you don’t like the Liberals, but come on, man.