BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

SOGI and drug decrim.

Yes, and people tend to attribute that sentiment to immigrants. I know a lot of white Canadians, though, who believe that there are litter boxes in classrooms or that trans people pose an existential threat. There is a lot of disinformation floating about that people eat up wholeheartedly.

[seamusmcduff]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

1) They want the SOGI123 stuff out of the classroom. Newer Indians from Punjabs are very ultra conservative.

Ah yes, the scary sogi curriculum that.. checks notes... resulted in a decrease in bullying for everyone. Can't have that now can we, if it means acknowledging that gay and trans people exist.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10803074/sogi...rimination-heterosexual-students-report/

https://ckpgtoday.ca/2024/10/17/conserva...i-123-raised-alarm-bells-for-physicians/

[whatnext]

If this was the best the NDP under Eby could do when up against a party led by a new leader, hadn’t had an MLA since 1978 and had some truly bad candidates then they’ll be gone in four years. By then all megaprojects in B.C. will be well and truly would up with the accompanying economic slowdown. Forestry will be on its deathbed and Rustad will have had four years to whip his greenhorns into shape.

[Migrant_Coconut]

OTOH if this is the best Rustad can do with a countrywide blue wave and a united right, they have no chance in four years once their MLAs start spouting their "UN takeover" conspiracies on the floor and BCU supporters reform a new centre-right party and the South Asians realize the white hosers don't want them in the party.

[dreambrother808]

It’s hard to predict where we will be politically in four years. Many things can change in favour of either party.

Rustad benefitted from how little people knew about his party. The incumbency effect is stronger than usual this cycle based on post-pandemic/inflationary effects. Plus, you can campaign on the opioid crisis as the challenger and then lose on it the next cycle because you don't have the answers either.

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Heard from an insider that BC Turnout is way down and its suspected the weather is at fault

Yep. Had to navigate foot-deep flooded intersections, and my voting place was literately a block away.

If it was that bad just to walk, I imagine it was a bigger pain for people to drive.

My prediction thus far is a tie +/- 1 seat, like it was in 2017... or 1952 :p

Like people kind of forget the lessons of the past, and the province just see-saws between left and right parties, but to actually get a majority requires focusing on the issues that matter to BC, and not nothingburger issues.

Compare their website from a month ago versus now, and notice what language has disappeared from the site. Last month the website contained hate-coded language. That's how you lose the Lower Mainland and the Island, and I feel that had the conservatives just didn't touch that they would have had more swing voters vote for them because it would be a "vote out the incumbant" choice rather than "vote against the bigots."

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by seamusmcduff

Ah yes, the scary sogi curriculum that.. checks notes... resulted in a decrease in bullying for everyone. Can't have that now can we, if it means acknowledging that gay and trans people exist.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10803074/sogi...rimination-heterosexual-students-report/

https://ckpgtoday.ca/2024/10/17/conserva...i-123-raised-alarm-bells-for-physicians/

It's a fight the left have to drop if they want to ever be relevant in a changing country. Far too many people are coming from India and Islamic countries and these sects immediately get very motivated to vote conservatives as they best reflect their viewpoints.

NDP should be a labour first party that takes a hard active stance against drugs and forces help on the addicted or mentally ill. Drop all identity politics.

Many liberal Chinese Born Canadians I know have now become super conservative due to the drugs/crime issues.

[Migrant_Coconut]

SOGI is just poor optics - had they framed it as "anti-bullying" (which is what it is), there'd be no ammo for the Social Injustice Warriors to throw at it.

[Tvisforme]

For anyone interested:

BC Elections: Counting Processes (2024 Provincial General Election) [PDF]

[BaddieB]

NDP did really well in urban non-immigrant areas. Big swings across the board in Vancouver, at the cost of losing a big Indian vote.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If this was the best the NDP under Eby could do when up against a party led by a new leader, hadn’t had an MLA since 1978 and had some truly bad candidates then they’ll be gone in four years. By then all megaprojects in B.C. will be well and truly would up with the accompanying economic slowdown. Forestry will be on its deathbed and Rustad will have had four years to whip his greenhorns into shape.

I was expecting some weirdly negative spin from you. This was also David Eby's first election as leader, and the NDP vote held up pretty well. They got 47.7% of the votes in 2020, and 44.6% this time. (Apparently their share of the vote increased in Vancouver.) With Kevin Falcon jumping ship and putting a hole in the hull as he left, and most voters seemingly voting for (or against) parties, rather than the politicians who used to be BC United MLAs, it was to be expected that the outcome would be close, as the polls indicated. The collapse of the Green vote was more than the polls expected. Maybe they were who stayed home as their vote wasn't going to make a difference in most seats.

[seamusmcduff]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

SOGI is just poor optics - had they framed it as "anti-bullying" (which is what it is), there'd be no ammo for the Social Injustice Warriors to throw at it.

It's not really poor optics. It has been in our curriculums for the last 10 years, and yet people only started to care about it in the last 2. It's a victim of misinformation and red scare style politics. It's no different than any moral panic, like DnD making kids worship the devil, or CRT being about teaching white people to be ashamed of themselves for existing.

It's a benign thing that someone figured they could make political in order to scare people into voting a certain way.

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The collapse of the Green vote was more than the polls expected. Maybe they were who stayed home as their vote wasn't going to make a difference in most seats.

The Green vote is ONLY ever a protest vote. There is no expectation of a Green win, ever, because they never have a platform that wouldn't immediately ruin the province. But you know what voting Green does? It sends the message to whoever gets in a minority government win that they stopped short of being good enough.

Like it always feels like voting story in BC is a choice of "Vote out the current Bozo, replace with a new Bozo." The NDP has an amazing recovery story from being full of corruption to being relatively... boring. Boring doesn't win.

The Conservatives haven't made real gains, what they gained from BC United disappearing was no chance of a vote split between Conservative and United.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by seamusmcduff

It's a benign thing that someone figured they could make political in order to scare people into voting a certain way.

"Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity" - the name itself paints a target on its back, because clueless traditionalists think it's about LGBTQ kids and not anybody affected by bullying in general (which likely includes many of the anti-SOGI crowd). Just because culture warriors like to make mountains out of molehills doesn't mean they should be helped along.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I was expecting some weirdly negative spin from you. This was also David Eby's first election as leader, and the NDP vote held up pretty well. They got 47.7% of the votes in 2020, and 44.6% this time. (Apparently their share of the vote increased in Vancouver.) With Kevin Falcon jumping ship and putting a hole in the hull as he left, and most voters seemingly voting for (or against) parties, rather than the politicians who used to be BC United MLAs, it was to be expected that the outcome would be close, as the polls indicated. The collapse of the Green vote was more than the polls expected. Maybe they were who stayed home as their vote wasn't going to make a difference in most seats.

Speaking of weird takes, you’re trying to portray Eby as a fresh unknown quantity? British Columbians are well aware of what he has on offer, from his playing footsie with Black Bloc anarchists against the Olympics, through his disastrous oversight of “affordable housing” like Chard’s Vivid project in Victoria to his failed decrim policies.

Is it any wonder voters were willing to give Rustad’s almost unknown party virtually the same popular vote as Eby’s?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

If you've been listening to this version of the Greens, they aren't Andrew Weaver anymore. They are solid left.

Was anything I said about the current BC Green platform incorrect? Intentions don't matter, policy decisions matter. When your policies have the bad results that NIMBY conservatives want you might as well be called NIMBY conservatives.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Politics is a horseshoe - the far left and far right often agree on a few specific things (often for opposite reasons), but that doesn't make them allies. You'd have a hard time finding a Con loyalist who supports trans rights, vaccines and the carbon tax, nor a Green loyalist who supports old growth logging, private healthcare and highway expansion.

[kja384]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

It's a fight the left have to drop if they want to ever be relevant in a changing country. Far too many people are coming from India and Islamic countries and these sects immediately get very motivated to vote conservatives as they best reflect their viewpoints.

NDP should be a labour first party that takes a hard active stance against drugs and forces help on the addicted or mentally ill. Drop all identity politics.

Many liberal Chinese Born Canadians I know have now become super conservative due to the drugs/crime issues.

I was under the assumption that out of all racial groups South Asians donate the most to electoral candidates and tend to vote heavily for the federal Liberals. The most South Asian riding in this election voted for the provincial NDP.

When it comes to Middle Eastern/Islamic people, polls suggest 31-41% of Muslims support the federal NDP.

So where exactly are you getting the idea that for left wing parties to succeed in this country they need to stop teaching about gay rights because of immigration? Seems like a fairly absurd thing to say.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

... British Columbians are well aware of what he has on offer, from his playing footsie with Black Bloc anarchists against the Olympics, through his disastrous oversight of “affordable housing” like Chard’s Vivid project in Victoria to his failed decrim policies.

And yet he got the most seats and the most votes, even with a unified right. Maybe he's more popular than you'd like to think.

[SpongeG]

RE the weather issue, some people blame this flooding this weekend on cloud seeding as they wanted to affect the voting.

Anyway its still too close to call, I heard it could take 12 days to finalize.