Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Davidnb]

I think we would be okay. Its fine to get someone to cross the floor., Gallant tried right up to the vote in the house. Greens are mostly down to two seats,
, even Coons race is right tight. Should be an interesting election night.

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

This commuter rail announcement from David Coon and the Greens could help some PC and Liberal voters alike over the edge in Fredericton North to vote Green. I don't think it's enough of a a Fredericton specific promise to see voters in Fredericton South—Silverwood to vote Green for a pipe dream train promise versus the prospects of Susan Holt being the first premier representing Fredericton in the history of NB... but it could be a factor in Fredericton North going green. Say what you want about its feasibility, NBers like trains, and many are nostalgic about trains, this could push the green party first past the post in Fredericton North, as it's currently the only race outside their three incumbents where the Greens stand a good chance win a seat.




This map is a best case electoral outcome for both the Liberals and Greens. If I had to put money on it, I think the Liberals will win a very slim majority of 25. They may even look to Coon to be the next speaker in order to have a more stable government. I have a feeling Coon would accept this, as he's almost 70, and being the first Green Speaker in the history of NB would not only further legitimize what he's accomplished with the Green party, it would be the perfect time to pass off the torch of the party leadership to someone new— likely Megan Mitton.

A slim majority for the Liberals remains far more likely than a minority situation, but it's still very much possible. This is shaping up to be an even closer, and far more interesting election than even the 2018 election.

Hopefully we get some new polling data soon.

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

If those were the results, does anyone think Higgs won’t try and proclaim victory and try to paint a Liberal + Green power sharing government as some sort of undemocratic coup?

It would be something to see for the spectacle of it all… but for the sake of NB, I hope we avoid that situation.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

If those were the results, does anyone think Higgs won’t try and proclaim victory and try to paint a Liberal + Green power sharing government as some sort of undemocratic coup?

It would be something to see for the spectacle of it all… but for the sake of NB, I hope we avoid that situation.

Of course He would. And the Liberals would do the exact same thing if the tables were turned. It's politics.

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Of course He would. And the Liberals would do the exact same thing if the tables were turned. It's politics.

Didn't Brian Gallant attempt something similar in 2018

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by gtsoc

Didn't Brian Gallant attempt something similar in 2018

Gallant chose to attempt to stay as premier and test his support in the house (as was his right under established precedent in our system) despite not having a majority. He was defeated on a question of confidence and the LtG then asked Higgs to try and form a government.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/procedure/procedure-and-practice-3/ch_02_2-e.html

"What constitutes a question of confidence in the government varies with the circumstances. Confidence is not a matter of parliamentary procedure, nor is it something on which the Speaker can be asked to rule.7 It is generally acknowledged, however, that confidence motions may be:8

explicitly worded motions which state that the House has, or has not, confidence in the government;9
motions declared by the government to be questions of confidence; and
implicit motions of confidence, that is, motions traditionally deemed to be questions of confidence, such as motions for the granting of supply (although the government may not necessarily lose confidence over an individual item of supply10), motions concerning the budgetary policy of the government11 and motions respecting the Address in Reply to the Speech from the Throne."

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Of course He would. And the Liberals would do the exact same thing if the tables were turned. It's politics.

The BC NDP did the very thing in 2017. Enticed a BC Liberal to be speaker and with the Greens, had enough votes to form minority government.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

The BC NDP did the very thing in 2017. Enticed a BC Liberal to be speaker and with the Greens, had enough votes to form minority government.

I’m sure quite a few PCs would happily become the next speaker, especially if it meant avoiding the Greens holding the balance of power, what they seem to be far more afraid of than the Liberals winning an outright majority.

[TitleRequired]

Another maritime mp has it with Trudeau, and still expects to be able to run as a liberal next election. Sean Casey from pei.



https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6536356

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Another maritime mp has it with Trudeau, and still expects to be able to run as a liberal next election. Sean Casey from pei.



https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6536356

If Trudeau is replaced before the next election, it’s possible they could still run.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

• Video Link
• Video Link


For New Brunswick voters who care about the horrendous situation in Gaza… might want to check into some of the deeply ignorant opinions on that Stuart in shared by Faytene, PC’s star candidate for Hampton—Fundy—St. Martins.

This is far from her only video on the sensitive topic, which are all rife with misinformed, ignorants takes on this conflict that has killed tens of thousands of children. I guess her opinions on parental rights only apply to New Brunswick.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

• Video Link
• Video Link


For New Brunswick voters who care about the horrendous situation in Gaza… might want to check into some of the deeply ignorant opinions on that Stuart in shared by Faytene, PC’s star candidate for Hampton—Fundy—St. Martins.

This is far from her only video on the sensitive topic, which are all rife with misinformed, ignorants takes on this conflict that has killed tens of thousands of children. I guess her opinions on parental rights only apply to New Brunswick.

At this point your not even keeping it political in New Brunswick. These are just personal attacks at this point.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

At this point your not even keeping it political in New Brunswick. These are just personal attacks at this point.

Some NB voters care deeply about this subject. Just came across it recently. She’s got quite a few more videos in this subject. Anything Faytene has said publicly is relevant to NB while she remains a star candidate for the NB PC’s.

[TitleRequired]

Some NB voters care deeply about this subject. Just came across it recently. She’s got quite a few more videos in this subject. Anything Faytene has said publicly is relevant to NB while she remains a star candidate for the NB PC’s.

She is not a star candidate, in the least. She earned her spot on the ballot.

I laugh at the LGBTQ+ and leftists that are all about supporting Palestine; showing a distinct misunderstanding that the only direct action that Palestinians consider of any homosexuality is pushing people off of tall buildings to their deaths.

Even in Gaza.

I'll be happy when Jenica Atwin is no longer the MP for Fredericton.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

She is not a star candidate, in the least. She earned her spot on the ballot.

I laugh at the LGBTQ+ and leftists that are all about supporting Palestine; showing a distinct misunderstanding that the only direct action that Palestinians consider of any homosexuality is pushing people off of tall buildings to their deaths.

Even in Gaza.

I'll be happy when Jenica Atwin is no longer the MP for Fredericton.

I support a two state solution, believe Hamas is a terrorist group, and firmly believe Israel has a right to exist and defend itself. However, not all New Brunswickers believe that. I’ve seen some posters on here claim the PCs will clean up the Muslim vote in NB, because of their stance on “parental rights”.

That theory could be quite deflated if these same voters look into some of the hardline pro Israel stances held by members of the NB PCs.

[TitleRequired]

But already three Liberal MPs have publicly called for leadership change: New Brunswick’s Wayne Long, Quebec’s Alexandra Mendès, and PEI’s Sean Casey.

...

Two of the Liberal MPs told The Globe they believe that at least 20 MPs have agreed to put their names to this new attempt to oust Mr. Trudeau. If those numbers hold up, another MP said they do not believe he can stay on.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...fficial-demand-for-trudeau-to-resign-in/

Are we in for a Halloween surprise lead by Wayne Long? I'm surprised that this is being lead from the East, but not surprised that Wayne is involved. I'm not sure why the 20 dissident number is significant, any bets?

Reminded of the Thatcher assignation by Howe in 1990, but with less charm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw1pcAzjRnc

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

...



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...fficial-demand-for-trudeau-to-resign-in/

Are we in for a Halloween surprise lead by Wayne Long? I'm surprised that this is being lead from the East, but not surprised that Wayne is involved. I'm not sure why the 20 dissident number is significant, any bets?

Reminded of the Thatcher assignation by Howe in 1990, but with less charm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw1pcAzjRnc

Even the Queen felt she was done wrong lol Thatcher was about as unpopular as Trudeau is now with people on the opposite end of the political spectrum, but The UK is a much more conservative state than Canada, so it was quite shocking she got the sack. Trudeau should have been gone already. Dude clearly cares more about his ego than the country, although, seriously, he's probably have a much more enjoyable life if he retired from politics. At the same time, I think a certain subset of the population gets overly hyperbolic about Trudeau, and blames him for everything on God's green earth... Higgs being a prime example of that subset of people. Higgs often blames Trudeau for things that aren't even his fault, and he mostly gets away with it. It's not like Higgs is some popular darling himself... he has the lowest approval ratings of any premier in Canada. Him and Trudeau are in a similar vote, just with different subsets of the population of NB.

Who would the Liberals even replace him with? At this point, he's more cooked than Biden would have been if he had stayed in the race. Chrystia would not be the pick to energize people around new leadership. With how unlikeable PP is, the Liberals would be seriously risking their prospects in the next election, and maybe the next one, if they stick with Trudeau versus literally anyone smarter and more popular.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Even the Queen felt she was done wrong lol Thatcher was about as unpopular as Trudeau is now with people on the opposite end of the political spectrum, but The UK is a much more conservative state than Canada, so it was quite shocking she got the sack. Trudeau should have been gone already. Dude clearly cares more about his ego than the country, although, seriously, he's probably have a much more enjoyable life if he retired from politics. At the same time, I think a certain subset of the population gets overly hyperbolic about Trudeau, and blames him for everything on God's green earth... Higgs being a prime example of that subset of people. Higgs often blames Trudeau for things that aren't even his fault, and he mostly gets away with it. It's not like Higgs is some popular darling himself... he has the lowest approval ratings of any premier in Canada. Him and Trudeau are in a similar vote, just with different subsets of the population of NB.

Who would the Liberals even replace him with? At this point, he's more cooked than Biden would have been if he had stayed in the race. Chrystia would not be the pick to energize people around new leadership. With how unlikeable PP is, the Liberals would be seriously risking their prospects in the next election, and maybe the next one, if they stick with Trudeau versus literally anyone smarter and more popular.

Apples and oranges to compare the UK and Canada in this kind of situation. Party rules make it far, far easier for UK MP's to replace a leader. It is very different under the Canadian Liberal party's constitution.

The CPC actually changed their process to replace a leader a few years ago to make it easier. Hence Sheer and O'Toole's downfall.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Apples and oranges to compare the UK and Canada in this kind of situation. Party rules make it far, far easier for UK MP's to replace a leader. It is very different under the Canadian Liberal party's constitution.

The CPC actually changed their process to replace a leader a few years ago to make it easier. Hence Sheer and O'Toole's downfall.

It's the Reform Act. Liberals chose not to apply it to their party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_(Canada)

At the first sitting of the House after an election, the members of each recognized party vote on whether any or all of the sets should apply to their caucuses. The provisions only applying to the caucuses that approve them was another compromise to ensure passage of the Act. The approval of the provisions by the caucuses is binding until Parliament dissolves, after which another vote is held.

The Act also amended the Parliament of Canada Act to create four sets of provisions relating to:

The expulsion/readmission of caucus members;
The election and removal of the caucus chair;
The removal of the party leader;
The election of an interim leader.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

It's the Reform Act. Liberals chose not to apply it to their party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_(Canada)

So while rank and file CPC MPs are still mostly trained seals they are less well trained seals than their Liberal counterparts.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

So while rank and file CPC MPs are still mostly trained seals they are less well trained seals than their Liberal counterparts.

If only question time had been modified as a proposal from the 1970s suggested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMOHiQtuSuo&list=PLZvgPDI4jVmILzcPeBQdYiCw8yVcVFO3A

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

NB Liberal Leader, Susan Holt seen campaigning with candidate John Herron, and former PC MLA for Hampton—Fundy—St. Martins, Gary Crossman. From what I’ve heard most of Crossman’s successful team from 2020 signed up to help elect Herron and defeat Higgs’s darling, Faytene.

Not a good look for Team Higgs