Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It would truly have to be the end times for Don Dominic to lose Beausejour.

Moncton is a tad more vulnerable, but, Ginette Petitpas Taylor remains personally popular, and, as you pointed out, since the riding no longer includes Riverview, the tendency of the electorate will be more Liberal than in the past. If the Tories pick the right candidate however, anything might be possible.

I think both stay red, even in a Liberals-at-20% scenario, but there's a large renting population that wasn't nearly as strained economically as it was in 2021. Need to know how much of Moncton-Dieppe's population growth came from 1) Acadian towns emptying out, 2) Anglo rurals, and 3) immigrants with citizenship. 1 is a boon for GPT, 2 a negative, and 3 a mild negative.

Originally Posted by sailor734

Do you think that support will do the NDP any good in terms of seats or will it just mean they come second ahead of the Liberals in more ridings that the CPC win?

I'm thinking the latter.

It should be good for half a dozen in Toronto and a dozen others nationwide, max. A couple in Vancouver, four or five in Quebec, the rest scattered around.

[TitleRequired]

338 just added a graph on probability on who will be official opposition!

Current split 83% Liberal, 17% BQ.

Is there a floor to liberal support?

[sailor734]

Absent a Jack Layton type leader for the NDP I think the Liberals are probably safe as the official opposition (all be it a very distant second to the CPC) The Bloc could technically do it but given their geographic limits everything would have to break just right.

I think Singh is a spent force for the NDP at this point

[Taeolas]

The BQ have been the official opposition before; but it was under extraordinary circumstances. It was when the Federal PC party collapsed, knocked down to 2 seats in the 90's. Reform and BQ basically snapped up most of their support, while the Liberals had a landslide. BQ ended up with the most seats of any of the opposition parties, and became the technical Official opposition. (My memory is hazy but I think Manning's Reform party became the de Factor Official Opposition instead, even if the BQ had the official title and office)

As for this coming year; I don't see the Liberals collapse being THAT bad, and the NDP nor Greens are really in a position to syphon too many of their seats (more likely they'll syphon enough to split the left vote and give PP's Conservatives the riding). So Liberals in Official opposition is pretty much a guarantee.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

This commuter rail announcement from David Coon and the Greens could help some PC and Liberal voters alike over the edge in Fredericton North to vote Green. I don't think it's enough of a a Fredericton specific promise to see voters in Fredericton South—Silverwood to vote Green for a pipe dream train promise versus the prospects of Susan Holt being the first premier representing Fredericton in the history of NB... but it could be a factor in Fredericton North going green. Say what you want about its feasibility, NBers like trains, and many are nostalgic about trains, this could push the green party first past the post in Fredericton North, as it's currently the only race outside their three incumbents where the Greens stand a good chance win a seat.




This map is a best case electoral outcome for both the Liberals and Greens. If I had to put money on it, I think the Liberals will win a very slim majority of 25. They may even look to Coon to be the next speaker in order to have a more stable government. I have a feeling Coon would accept this, as he's almost 70, and being the first Green Speaker in the history of NB would not only further legitimize what he's accomplished with the Green party, it would be the perfect time to pass off the torch of the party leadership to someone new— likely Megan Mitton.

A slim majority for the Liberals remains far more likely than a minority situation, but it's still very much possible. This is shaping up to be an even closer, and far more interesting election than even the 2018 election.

Hopefully we get some new polling data soon.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Absent a Jack Layton type leader for the NDP I think the Liberals are probably safe as the official opposition (all be it a very distant second to the CPC) The Bloc could technically do it but given their geographic limits everything would have to break just right.

I think Singh is a spent force for the NDP at this point

The ndp can't afford an election.

They had to borrow 21M$ last cycle, and just finished paying it off. They had 200k in the back at the end of 2023.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

The ndp can't afford an election.

They had to borrow 21M$ last cycle, and just finished paying it off. They had 200k in the bank at the end of 2023.

The NDP in their current form won't be supporting an election until the last moment.

However, this could be the time to finally merge the Liberal and NDP to form a sort of Canadian version of the UK Labour Party. A Liberal NDP merger was last floated after the Liberal electoral implosion under Ignatieff's leadership.

The NDP is far more financially desperate now than they were after their historic 2011 campaign which resulted in the NDP becoming the official opposition for the first time under Jack Layton. Not long after that election, Harper got rid of the pay per vote subsidy to political parties, which hurt the NDP quite badly, and continues to hurt them today.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

This commuter rail announcement from David Coon and the Greens could help some PC and Liberal voters alike over the edge in Fredericton North to vote Green. I don't think it's enough of a a Fredericton specific promise to see voters in Fredericton South—Silverwood to vote Green for a pipe dream train promise versus the prospects of Susan Holt being the first premier representing Fredericton in the history of NB... but it could be a factor in Fredericton North going green. Say what you want about its feasibility, NBers like trains, and many are nostalgic about trains, this could push the green party first past the post in Fredericton North, as it's currently the only race outside their three incumbents where the Greens stand a good chance win a seat.




This map is a best case electoral outcome for both the Liberals and Greens. If I had to put money on it, I think the Liberals will win a very slim majority of 25. They may even look to Coon to be the next speaker in order to have a more stable government. I have a feeling Coon would accept this, as he's almost 70, and being the first Green Speaker in the history of NB would not only further legitimize what he's accomplished with the Green party, it would be the perfect time to pass off the torch of the party leadership to someone new— likely Megan Mitton.

A slim majority for the Liberals remains far more likely than a minority situation, but it's still very much possible. This is shaping up to be an even closer, and far more interesting election than even the 2018 election.

Hopefully we get some new polling data soon.

This is quite the fantasy post. You have only rural anglophone going blue. Do you even think this is a possibility? I've never seen someone so desperate coming up with all this junk, to try and convince people to vote your way. I mean it's all propaganda at this point to convince people. Typical leftist tactic.

There is no way that the greens are picking up a seat or two because of trains. That is the farthest thing from people minds. What were you thinking?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

This is quite the fantasy post. You have only rural anglophone going blue. Do you even think this is a possibility? I've never seen someone so desperate coming up with all this junk, to try and convince people to vote your way. I mean it's all propaganda at this point to convince people. Typical leftist tactic.

There is no way that the greens are picking up a seat or two because of trains. That is the farthest thing from people minds. What were you thinking?

We are at the fantasy football stage of the election. Fantasy, wishful electoral wins, fantasy policies.

Coon just suggested he'd run "small deficits" due to the health care crisis; with no costing in his party platform.

Small.

Its almost like he's reading the PCs talk about him and saying "hold my beer."

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

This is quite the fantasy post. You have only rural anglophone going blue. Do you even think this is a possibility? I've never seen someone so desperate coming up with all this junk, to try and convince people to vote your way. I mean it's all propaganda at this point to convince people. Typical leftist tactic.

There is no way that the greens are picking up a seat or two because of trains. That is the farthest thing from people minds. What were you thinking?

It’s a best case electoral outcome map for the Liberals and CPC.

Also, Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Riverview are not part of “rural Anglo New Brunswick”.

I figured you’d like the map

And hate the train idea lol

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

It’s a best case electoral outcome map for the Liberals and CPC.

Also, Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Riverview are not part of “rural Anglo New Brunswick”.

I figured you’d like the map

And hate the train idea lol

I do like maps, too much actually.

[adamuptownsj]

Fredericton ripped out its rail lines and replaced them with trails, homes, and businesses. It's literally the last place in the province that would see trains. Full stop. It's not a heavy industry/port town like Saint John, or a light industry/logistics hub like Moncton. Fredericton produces university graduates and paperwork. There would be no freight to pay for this immense cost. Suburban Fredericton voters are not going to shift Green because Coon is making cartoonish promises about a rail line to Saint John by 2030. I don't presume voters anywhere are.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Fredericton ripped out its rail lines and replaced them with trails, homes, and businesses. It's literally the last place in the province that would see trains. Full stop. It's not a heavy industry/port town like Saint John, or a light industry/logistics hub like Moncton. Fredericton produces university graduates and paperwork. There would be no freight to pay for this immense cost. Suburban Fredericton voters are not going to shift Green because Coon is making cartoonish promises about a rail line to Saint John by 2030. I don't presume voters anywhere are.

No one is going to vote solely on this train promise, but it could be a deciding factor for some people who are torn on which way to vote

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

No one is going to vote solely on this train promise, but it could be a deciding factor for some people who are torn on which way to vote

You seriously believe that or are you just stirring the pot?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

You seriously believe that or are you just stirring the pot?

well, it could play a factor for some voters in Fredericton North. The feasibility of the proposal doesn’t matter as much as emotional factor for this one.

No need to stir the pot, MonctonSentinel and Adam are already quite shaken up.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

You seriously believe that or are you just stirring the pot?

The train idea is only a means to motivate the party faithful to show up to vote. It isn’t about gaining extra votes, unless they are picking off ndp
Voters.

It was probably sent out by email to the party faithful asking for a donation.

Pure marketing, not unlike the bazillion petitions the Green Party tables every legislative session. A means to generate leads and donations.

The fact the party faithful considers this a good idea doesn’t reflect well on the party’s abilities and rationality.

[TitleRequired]

The French language video scored a minor win today. Holt had to refute her podcast comments regarding educational attainment in the Bathurst area.

Decisive? Probably not.

The 338 model doesn’t reflect Savoie’s by election win, nor the Bathurst mayors compelling electoral win as mayor.

And this was the best campaign ad I’ve seen in ages. “Morning in America” good? Of course not, but Mr Outhouse influence is showing.

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

well, it could play a factor for some voters in Fredericton North. The feasibility of the proposal doesn’t matter as much as emotional factor for this one.

No need to stir the pot, MonctonSentinel and Adam are already quite shaken up.

If you really wanted Fredericton North votes, the easiest, most cost effective way to win over their hearts would be to push for a secondary walking bridge. The piles are already there and it would promote a green initiative of cycling/walking instead of driving. Plus I vaguely remember a report saying it would be a couple million (opposed to the ridiculous costs of a third bridge)

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by NB_ExistsToo

If you really wanted Fredericton North votes, the easiest, most cost effective way to win over their hearts would be to push for a secondary walking bridge. The piles are already there and it would promote a green initiative of cycling/walking instead of driving. Plus I vaguely remember a report saying it would be a couple million (opposed to the ridiculous costs of a third bridge)

How would a walking bridge 500m away make a difference?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by NB_ExistsToo

If you really wanted Fredericton North votes, the easiest, most cost effective way to win over their hearts would be to push for a secondary walking bridge. The piles are already there and it would promote a green initiative of cycling/walking instead of driving. Plus I vaguely remember a report saying it would be a couple million (opposed to the ridiculous costs of a third bridge)

No way it would be a couple million. Sussex spent what, like $500K+ on a 60-ft bridge over Trout Creek last year? This is over 2,300 feet over a river. $20M minimum and that's if the piles are sound.