BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament - Page 17

whatnext · #**321** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 1:50 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by seamusmcduff

It only matters if voters care about this, or pay attention. From what I've seen online I'm not sure if that's the case so far.

When push comes to shove enough voters will head to the mushy middle which is where Eby has positioned the NDP. He’s fortunate that Furstenau had the personality of a wet dishrag and won’t motivate those concerned about Eby’s carbon tax waffling to move to the Greens.

Bcasey25raptor · #**322** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 4:55 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burquitlaman

"gonna govern"?

The NDP is still more likely to come out ahead based on seats, no matter the popular vote.

I'm very concerned the nDP won't win this, They're polling 43% rn and the Cons are at 44%, thats not enough to win. The seat maps are wrong

Migrant_Coconut · #**323** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 6:37 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I'm very concerned the nDP won't win this, They're polling 43% rn and the Cons are at 44%, thats not enough to win. The seat maps are wrong

You realize that's not a universal distribution? FPTP means that you can "lose" by 1% and still win 5 more seats (i.e. the Libs in '21).

At last check, the Dippers still have a 57% chance of winning, and are well ahead in Vancouver, where the actual swing seats are.

Bcasey25raptor · #**324** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 4:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

You realize that's not a universal distribution? FPTP means that you can "lose" by 1% and still win 5 more seats (i.e. the Libs in '21).

At last check, the Dippers still have a 57% chance of winning, and are well ahead in Vancouver, where the actual swing seats are.

Mainstreet poll today (I pay for their tracker) has the BC Cons ahead by 3 points and winning 52 seats.....

NDP needs to panic NOW

jollyburger · #**325** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 4:51 PM**

It'll be interesting to see if early/mail-in voting numbers stay high this year as well.

Islandtime · #**326** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 5:52 PM**

Currently their are 30 independents running in this election. Many of them former MLA's for BCUnited. Could the balance of power rest with them irrespective of whether the NDP or Conservatives win?

Bcasey25raptor · #**327** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 5:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Islandtime

Currently their are 30 independents running in this election. Many of them former MLA's for BCUnited. Could the balance of power rest with them irrespective of whether the NDP or Conservatives win?

I doubt any of them will make a difference.

My map rn has the cons at 49 seats

Islandtime · #**328** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 5:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I doubt any of them will make a difference.

My map rn has the cons at 49 seats

How many does it have for the NDP? And the Greens?

Bcasey25raptor · #**329** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 6:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Islandtime

How many does it have for the NDP? And the Greens?

I have the NDP at 43 seats and the Greens at 1

Islandtime · #**330** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 6:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I have the NDP at 43 seats and the Greens at 1

OK thanks. So polls don't consider independents? Or are the numbers insignificant? I'm curious because the media talks of some very strong independents yet they don't seem register in the polls.

madog222 · #**331** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 7:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Islandtime

OK thanks. So polls don't consider independents? Or are the numbers insignificant? I'm curious because the media talks of some very strong independents yet they don't seem register in the polls.

Polls are province wide, even strong support for independent candidates in a handful of districts will be statistically insignificant.

I don't believe seat projections such as 338 Canada can account for independent candidates as the projections are ultimately based on the province wide polls.

Migrant_Coconut · #**332** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 7:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Mainstreet poll today (I pay for their tracker) has the BC Cons ahead by 3 points and winning 52 seats.....

NDP needs to panic NOW

Good thing Mainstreet's not the only pollster in the country, because they've been off the mark for a while now. 338's got them at 39% and 45 seats (which, in fairness, is a pretty big jump from six months ago).

whatnext · #**333** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 8:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I doubt any of them will make a difference.

My map rn has the cons at 49 seats

To the contrary, Island time is right, the Independent candidates can make the difference and since so many are former BC United candidates they’re likely to siphon off Conservative voters thus giving the NDP an advantage in those ridings.

jollyburger · #**334** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 8:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

To the contrary, Island time is right, the Independent candidates can make the difference and since so many are former BC United candidates they’re likely to siphon off Conservative voters thus giving the NDP an advantage in those ridings.

Well the independents that are strong enough to syphon votes will probably win their riding and NDP will more likely still end up finishing in third. Better question: which of the seats with an independent (BC United) candidate do you think has the most chance of flipping NDP?

BaddieB · #**335** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 10:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I have the NDP at 43 seats and the Greens at 1

My out there prediction in Yaletown is an NDP win. This is mostly on vibes of the NPD candidate being a cop the Conservative one being extremely unlikeable.

BaddieB · #**336** Posted **Sep 28, 2024, 10:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Mainstreet poll today (I pay for their tracker) has the BC Cons ahead by 3 points and winning 52 seats.....

NDP needs to panic NOW

The latest one Mainstreet poll I see from Wikipedia has the NDP and BCC tied (down from a poll from them a few days prior where the BCC was 2+)

Could you check in the crosstabs for me what their unweighted polls were?

At any rate, Mainstreet had the UCP 2+ right before the Alberta Election, off by 6 points. Suffice to say that Canadian polls are pretty meaningless when the election is within even 10 points. They even had the Conservatives up 1 point in Manitoba a month before the election (their one before election days was closer). Not to say the BCC can't win but it's a coin toss.

whatnext · #**337** Posted **Sep 29, 2024, 1:05 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Well the independents that are strong enough to syphon votes will probably win their riding and NDP will more likely still end up finishing in third. Better question: which of the seats with an independent (BC United) candidate do you think has the most chance of flipping NDP?

West Vancouver-Capilano comes to mind right away.

BaddieB · #**338** Posted **Sep 29, 2024, 2:53 AM**

I doubt any independents are going to split the vote enough for the BC Conservatives to lose and the NDP won a seat. I doubt West Van is gonna see an independent above 5%, no less 10%.

The lack of greens in many ridings interests me. I really do not get who green voters are. I have to guess it's ⅓ people really into environmentalism, ⅓ conspiracy nuts who will migrate to the BCC, and ⅓ of people who see the word green and vote them because they like the vibes. Am I off?

Migrant_Coconut · #**339** Posted **Sep 29, 2024, 3:19 AM**

You forgot the "NIMBYs who like bike lanes" category. Otherwise, correct.

hollywoodnorth · #**340** Posted **Sep 29, 2024, 3:57 AM**

https://338canada.com/bc/

showing it as too close to call as well. I do think that there is a high possibility that some Independents will come into the mix to help form a government.