OC Transpo

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

OCTranspo loses money on almost every ride. Why should OCTranspo spend hundreds of millions of dollars to try to compete with Uber for the post-bar business?

The delusion is so strong in this thread. The system is bleeding money and real cuts are being made that it's claimed will increase traffic congestion (which the same people say is only 2 hours a day so not relevant) so we should add service at 11pm when there is no traffic and riders are mostly making optional trips?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes interesting if 3 days will be the tipping point. The parking tax idea has some of the benefits of a congestion charge and is a lot easier to implement. Woud $30 a day dissuade people ?

Right now, if parking is $11.5/day or less, the cost of a bus pass and parking 3x per week are about equal. And nobody really looks at gas for short commutes (10-20 km) anyway. So they'll see it as a marginal cost increase for substantial quality of life gain. In the long run though, a lot of cheap parking downtown is disappearing as lots get redeveloped. So parking fees are going to be rising substantially over the coming years. I think $20/day will be quite normal for downtown commuter parking by the end of the decade. Lots of parking lots in the core are already charging over $200 for a monthly parking pass. Many of these places will be in the $250-300 range by the end of the decade. Those prices will draw back downtown bound riders to transit over time. But the next few years will be rough for OC Transpo.

Originally Posted by rocketphish

Cutting OC Transpo train service now makes very little sense
It would be better to wait a few months and gauge the impact of public servants' return to office so we can get a better picture of the level of service needed.

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/adam-cutting-oc-transpo-train-service-now-makes-very-little-sense

At this point? Screw it. Bring on the cuts and let's hope there's absolute chaos and people are stuck for hours in traffic. It's the only way this city will learn. The more people who drive, the more the traffic and the more expensive that parking gets. We could start seeing politicians actually losing elections over transit.

Originally Posted by phil235

What do you mean?

He genuinely believes that downtown businesses are massively sustained by suburban commuters. LOL.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Right now, if parking is $11.5/day or less, the cost of a bus pass and parking 3x per week are about equal. And nobody really looks at gas for short commutes (10-20 km) anyway. So they'll see it as a marginal cost increase for substantial quality of life gain. In the long run though, a lot of cheap parking downtown is disappearing as lots get redeveloped. So parking fees are going to be rising substantially over the coming years. I think $20/day will be quite normal for downtown commuter parking by the end of the decade. Lots of parking lots in the core are already charging over $200 for a monthly parking pass. Many of these places will be in the $250-300 range by the end of the decade. Those prices will draw back downtown bound riders to transit over time. But the next few years will be rough for OC Transpo.



At this point? Screw it. Bring on the cuts and let's hope there's absolute chaos and people are stuck for hours in traffic. It's the only way this city will learn. The more people who drive, the more the traffic and the more expensive that parking gets. We could start seeing politicians actually losing elections over transit.

I think both of thse are a bit optimistic. Development of empty lots is slowing down and ofthen these new developments add lots of parking. Mostly for residents but often including paid visitor or guess parking.

The cuts in midday or evening service don't seem like they will cause a crisis in traffic to the point people demand transit. It seems the revolution is more likely to end up demanding more focus on roads.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think both of thse are a bit optimistic. Development of empty lots is slowing down and ofthen these new developments add lots of parking. Mostly for residents but often including paid visitor or guess parking.

The cuts in midday or evening service don't seem like they will cause a crisis in traffic to the point people demand transit. It seems the revolution is more likely to end up demanding more focus on roads.

Physics precludes more roads in the core. Economics precludes more parking in the core. And our population only keeps growing. I remember even a decade ago, lots of giant empty lots in the downtown core. Easily half of them are now gone. And plenty more will be gone over the coming years. There might be some visitor and paid parking. But it's going to get rarer and more expensive over time. If it wasn't for Covid, parking would already be $250-300.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Physics precludes more roads in the core. Economics precludes more parking in the core. And our population only keeps growing. I remember even a decade ago, lots of giant empty lots in the downtown core. Easily half of them are now gone. And plenty more will be gone over the coming years. There might be some visitor and paid parking. But it's going to get rarer and more expensive over time. If it wasn't for Covid, parking would already be $250-300.

Parking downtown is already well above $11.50/day. It was low during the actual pandemic but in most of the office district it's around $22 a day. Even centertown is usually $16 now. Cheap parking disappeared when people started coming back. I usually take transit but I'm always surprised at how much more parking is these days on occasional trips in by car. Free parking on weekends is gone now

Also, the thought that Ottawa is only congested in rush hours is also outdated. 15 years ago a jam on Hunt Club or the Queensway was unheard of outside of rush hours, but they happen 7 days a week at all times now.

But for a lot of people, congestion isn't enough to move them to transit. The service has to be convenient and cheap. If OC Transpo wants to end the death spiral, they paradoxically have to cut fares. The other thing that isn't helping downtown and.transit is the homeless people everywhere. On streets, in stations, and on trains

[Lakeofthewood]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The delusion is so strong in this thread. The system is bleeding money and real cuts are being made that it's claimed will increase traffic congestion (which the same people say is only 2 hours a day so not relevant) so we should add service at 11pm when there is no traffic and riders are mostly making optional trips?

No one is asking to add more trips late at night. It's the fact that a scheduled trip couldn't even start at time, so it took him over two hours to get home. That is a shockingly common occurrence at any time of the day for OC, and is a major reason people choose not to take transit.

It's not about competing with Uber or drivers, it's about being an attractive enough alternative to them that you get some people making the choice to switch. For example: according to Google, my transit commute is 45 minutes, but it regularly takes 1.5 hours or more due to cancelled trips or the one transfer I have to make. I'd happily take it every day if it was 45 minutes, but because of how often I've been burned, I'll just take the 20-30 minute drive instead or the hour bike ride.

[lrt's friend]

Pushing people off transit and increasing congestion does not lead to better transit. Instead, we all end up with a worse quality of life and even fewer people wanting to go downtown.

[BanjoUnchained]

I've been fare inspected on the LRT twice in the last 4 days, seems like the city is really ramping up enforcement

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Physics precludes more roads in the core. Economics precludes more parking in the core. And our population only keeps growing. I remember even a decade ago, lots of giant empty lots in the downtown core. Easily half of them are now gone. And plenty more will be gone over the coming years. There might be some visitor and paid parking. But it's going to get rarer and more expensive over time. If it wasn't for Covid, parking would already be $250-300.

We certainly could add road capacity to/in downtown. A lot of it is minor and just pushes congestion elsewhere but it is certainly possible. I mean personally as a downtown dweller I'd rather be more comfortable walking on Elgin, Main or even King Edward. But they could all have more traffice if we wanted and mostly that wouldn't even be expensive. I agree it's totally off the table we only add capacity to get people onto the 417 Bronson etc but make the last mile worse and worse. That seems to be the compromise currently.

We could also open up the South East Transitway for example to cars. If we now are forcing everyone onto trains and reducing service there that becomes better as another route into the city at some point.

Originally Posted by BanjoUnchained

I've been fare inspected on the LRT twice in the last 4 days, seems like the city is really ramping up enforcement

I guess there is a hope fare evasion is part of the drop in numbers.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kmcamp

Parking downtown is already well above $11.50/day. It was low during the actual pandemic but in most of the office district it's around $22 a day. Even centertown is usually $16 now.

For two days per week, parking had to be less than $17.50 to work out. For three days a week it's $11.50. That's why you saw this at $16/day:

Originally Posted by kmcamp

Cheap parking disappeared when people started coming back. I usually take transit but I'm always surprised at how much more parking is these days on occasional trips in by car. Free parking on weekends is gone now.

Right now, $192/mo to park 3x per week, or even a parking pass for $200/mo to park whenever, isn't a huge lift over a bus pass. It's basically about ~$100-150 more in gas parking to drive to work and save 20-40 mins per day for the average commuter. But that math will change gradually over the coming years. Fewer spots. Higher prices. More congestion. All that means the driving premium is going to be much higher, for less time savings.

Originally Posted by kmcamp

Also, the thought that Ottawa is only congested in rush hours is also outdated. 15 years ago a jam on Hunt Club or the Queensway was unheard of outside of rush hours, but they happen 7 days a week at all times now.

But for a lot of people, congestion isn't enough to move them to transit. The service has to be convenient and cheap. If OC Transpo wants to end the death spiral, they paradoxically have to cut fares. The other thing that isn't helping downtown and.transit is the homeless people everywhere. On streets, in stations, and on trains

Cost does not matter to people who drive. If they are cost sensitive, they are already on transit. If they are time sensitive, they are driving. That's the real problem for OC Transpo. As reliability gets worse and lower frequencies reduce connection efficiency average travel times increase, and with that, so does the incentive to drive. This means OC Transpo gets stuck with a much more cost sensitive user base who will count each tap of Presto, and lose more of the free-spending time sensitive commuters.

The only way to get back time sensitive riders is to close the time and convenience gap. This can be done by improving service. But in a lot of other big cities, it's usually been achieved by driving just getting worse. There's even a term for this: the Downs-Thomson paradox postulates that transit times and driving times always converge due to induced demand. So if transit gets worse, more people will drive and they will fill up the roads until driving times start looking like transit times at peak. This is why cutting transit never pays off in large cities. Ottawans have to get some more real life experience with this before they learn.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

We certainly could add road capacity to/in downtown. A lot of it is minor and just pushes congestion elsewhere but it is certainly possible. I mean personally as a downtown dweller I'd rather be more comfortable walking on Elgin, Main or even King Edward. But they could all have more traffice if we wanted and mostly that wouldn't even be expensive. I agree it's totally off the table we only add capacity to get people onto the 417 Bronson etc but make the last mile worse and worse. That seems to be the compromise currently.

We could also open up the South East Transitway for example to cars. If we now are forcing everyone onto trains and reducing service there that becomes better as another route into the city at some point.

This is a marginal improvement in road capacity into and out of downtown. But then all those cars still get dumped into a core with less parking. Eliminating downtown bike lanes still won't solve that much. Parking is the real limiting factor here. And the easy parking in the core will be mostly gone by the end of this decade with all the development there. But with more people living further out, it also means there will be a lot more people driving competing for those limited spots. So that means a lot more congestion.

Parking spots in downtown Toronto condos can cost six figures to buy. Parking spots in the financial district can cost $400/mo to rent. That's how big cities work as parking gets more scarce. Every lot turned into a condo probably adds a dollar or two to the average monthly parking cost in the core. They reduce parking supply and increase demand for parking. Suburbanites banking on cheap parking in the core indefinitely are in for a massive shock in the coming years.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is a marginal improvement in road capacity into and out of downtown. But then all those cars still get dumped into a core with less parking. Eliminating downtown bike lanes still won't solve that much. Parking is the real limiting factor here. And the easy parking in the core will be mostly gone by the end of this decade with all the development there. But with more people living further out, it also means there will be a lot more people driving competing for those limited spots. So that means a lot more congestion.

Parking spots in downtown Toronto condos can cost six figures to buy. Parking spots in the financial district can cost $400/mo to rent. That's how big cities work as parking gets more scarce. Every lot turned into a condo probably adds a dollar or two to the average monthly parking cost in the core. They reduce parking supply and increase demand for parking. Suburbanites banking on cheap parking in the core indefinitely are in for a massive shock in the coming years.

Yeah though I think coming years as with a lot of these things is longer than expected. Incidently you are coming from the east or Gatineau via the 5 parking in the market is still available for $10 a day and it's not too bad a walk to many buildings. It might take an extra 10 minutes by car anyway to get from St. Patrick and Dalhousie to 90 Elgin for example and maybe 15 on foot? Though I bet it's pretty rare as suburbanites do hate walking. They'll circle around and eventiually pay $10 rather than walk 3 blocks from free parking in Lowertown.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yeah though I think coming years as with a lot of these things is longer than expected.

Hardly. Open lots are already rare in the downtown core. And they'll be pretty much extinct by the end of the decade, unless the condo boom basically ends now. Every lot that is being used for parking is simply waiting for a developer. And those developers have no incentive to put in any public parking in their plans. Heck, they don't even put in one parking spot per unit anymore. They are well under that.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Incidentally you are coming from the east or Gatineau via the 5 parking in the market is still available for $10 a day and it's not too bad a walk to many buildings. It might take an extra 10 minutes by car anyway to get from St. Patrick and Dalhousie to 90 Elgin for example and maybe 15 on foot? Though I bet it's pretty rare as suburbanites do hate walking. They'll circle around and eventually pay $10 rather than walk 3 blocks from free parking in Lowertown.

As those lots start filling up more regularly, prices will and should rise. I would not be surprised if most of those $10 spots are $15-20 by the end of the decade. Free parking will definitely be eliminated. The city would be fools not to collect that revenue. But at the end of the day, that's a small part of the core. And walking 10-20 mins each way negates a lot of the time savings and comfort that is the reason behind why those people are driving to begin with.

[Acajack]

There is a hard core of drivers that even high parking or high gas prices will not deter that much. It's surprising how determined they are to drive and park everywhere.

Consider there are several hundred thousand people who drive into Manhattan and park there every single day to go to work.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Pushing people off transit and increasing congestion does not lead to better transit. Instead, we all end up with a worse quality of life and even fewer people wanting to go downtown.

Agree with the sentiment on quality of life, but not sure why you are tying congestion to downtown. Lots of the worst congestion in Ottawa is nowhere near downtown. If, as you suggest, people won’t go downtown, then it is going to be a congestion-free paradise shortly.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by phil235

Agree with the sentiment on quality of life, but not sure why you are tying congestion to downtown. Lots of the worst congestion in Ottawa is nowhere near downtown. If, as you suggest, people won’t go downtown, then it is going to be a congestion-free paradise shortly.

You are right that congestion will be much more widespread and we will have reverse induced demand. The city will choke on traffic and many will avoid trips where congestion is worst. I now stay around the periphery of the city and avoid the busiest locations. Transit is becoming a poorer option and will get worse. Trains don't solve the problem if they don't run at full speed and if you need to transfer often more than once to get to your destination.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

You are right that congestion will be much more widespread and we will have reverse induced demand. The city will choke on traffic and many will avoid trips where congestion is worst. I now stay around the periphery of the city and avoid the busiest locations. Transit is becoming a poorer option and will get worse. Trains don't solve the problem if they don't run at full speed and if you need to transfer often more than once to get to your destination.

Kind of sounds like that joke. Nobody goes there anymore it's too crowded.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There is a hard core of drivers that even high parking or high gas prices will not deter that much. It's surprising how determined they are to drive and park everywhere.

Consider there are several hundred thousand people who drive into Manhattan and park there every single day to go to work.

There will always be some proportion of people who drive. But that proportion gets smaller and smaller, the more expensive it gets to drive and the lower the return on driving.

Originally Posted by phil235

Agree with the sentiment on quality of life, but not sure why you are tying congestion to downtown. Lots of the worst congestion in Ottawa is nowhere near downtown. If, as you suggest, people won’t go downtown, then it is going to be a congestion-free paradise shortly.

He wants to convince people that suburbanites driving are really important to the core. But there is no evidence of this at all. And the downtown core is developing so fast, that overall dependence on suburbanites is falling too.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There will always be some proportion of people who drive. But that proportion gets smaller and smaller, the more expensive it gets to drive and the lower the return on driving.




He wants to convince people that suburbanites driving are really important to the core. But there is no evidence of this at all. And the downtown core is developing so fast, that overall dependence on suburbanites is falling too.

I noticed how suddenly LeBreton has filled up with towers. But I agree, downtown is exploding with homeless people.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I noticed how suddenly LeBreton has filled up with towers. But I agree, downtown is exploding with homeless people.

Your sour grapes are hilarious. What does it say that so many would rather live in a condo in an area with more homeless than live near your neighbourhood?

Average core resident to suburbanites: