BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Not sure if you're aware, but that model is two weeks old right now. It's not factoring in the dissolution of BC United, it just looks that way because the model shows BC United getting wiped out, however they are still modeled as capturing 10% of the popular vote. If the BC Conservatives were to uptake that entire 10% (they won't), that could make a huge difference in swing ridings.

"If," like you said. Note that Canada doesn't have a presidential system, and the popular vote doesn't determine who's in charge; the federal Liberals lost the vote three years ago and yet won five seats (not a 1:1 comparison, but the point still stands).

At last check, the NDP still have a roughly ten-point lead in the Lower Mainland where all the swing ridings are; "if" United's 10% were evenly spread across the whole province, they'd have to step on the gas, but it's not.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

"Latest update: August 14, 2024"

This development will absolutely change the race.

Your BC NDP overconfidence is misplaced.

See above.

[LeftCoaster]

Popular vote doesn't determine who's in charge in the US either...

If only it did!

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

"If," like you said. Note that we're not America, and the popular vote doesn't determine who's in charge; the federal Liberals lost the vote three years ago and yet won five seats (not a 1:1 comparison, but the point still stands).

At last check, the NDP still have a roughly ten-point lead in the Lower Mainland where all the swing ridings are.

Okay... this is a bit contradictory. As you say, the popular vote doesn't matter so a ten-point lead means nothing broadly across the Lower Mainland; There are on average 10% BC United voters in the model though, so this change should however mean that the BC Cons will likely now win ridings like:

Richmond Centre (5% swing with 15% BC United voters)
Richmond-Steveston (2% swing with 9% BC United voters)
Surrey-Serpentine River (2% swing with 12% BC United voters)
Surrey-Cloverdale (4% swing with 9% BC United voters)
Port Moody-Burquitlam (4% swing with 7% BC United voters)
Even Eby's own riding Vancouver-Point Grey (4% swing with 9% BC United voters)

This is not even mentioning the rest of BC nor solidifying their leads in ridings they were already favoured for, meaning they can readjust campaigning to focus on the new swing ridings.

[CanSpice]

Haha oh boy Kevin Falcon even fails at failing:

Kevin Falcon cannot dissolve BC United.
He can only resign.

BCU's Board of Directors must then call a leadership race OR a meeting of BCU members, which requires 30 days notice.

At the meeting, BCU members can decide to dissolve or merge the party (with a 2/3rds majority).

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Haha oh boy Kevin Falcon even fails at failing:

Surely they planned for this... right...?

[Migrant_Coconut]

(facepalm) And to think this maroon was a Cabinet minister.

Originally Posted by chowhou

- snip -

See above, now expanded. "If" United's 10% were evenly spread across the whole province, they'd have to step on the gas, but it's not.

Yes, we can all expect the Dippers to lose seats in the usual areas. Losing 19 seats would mean the Cons manage to flip not just Richmond, the Valley and the NIMBY ridings (still unlikely if United won't dissolve itself), but also parts of the metro (e.g. Surrey) that've leaned hard left just four years ago - guess that's why Rustad wants to audit every transit project except the Langley SkyTrain.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Yes, we can all expect the Dippers to lose seats in the usual areas. Losing 19 seats would mean the Cons manage to flip not just Richmond and the Valley (still unlikely if United won't dissolve itself), but also parts of the metro (e.g. Surrey) that've leaned hard left for the last two elections - guess that's why Rustad wants to audit everything BUT the Langley SkyTrain.

I'm not entirely sure where you get 19 from; According the 338 model that you yourself brought up, the BC Cons were being projected to win approximately 39 seats with 47 needed for a majority before the BC United merger. Post-merger, if they now will win the 6 seats that I just linked, they only really need 2 more.

Fraser Nicola (0% swing with 12% BC United voters)
North Island (0% swing with 6% BC United voters)

Promising to keep the Surrey Skytrain is just the electorally popular thing to do, so if they want to win they'll do it.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Wow! I honestly didn't think they would get their act together and come to an agreement.

Or they couldn't get their act together so they came to an agreement

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

- snip -

Yesterday's Wiki page. It's a safe bet the Cons will get all of United's old seats, which gives them 28 out of 47; they need 19 more. 39 of 47 means they still need 8.

Fraser-Nicola's already United by the way. Ditto Richmond Centre. Like I said, a lot of the Con's "gains" are just the right recycling itself; they need to win 19 ridings that're currently orange to get elected... and since the NDP can now take advantage of Alberta's Cons saying the quiet parts out loud, they're going to have a hard time with that.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Or they couldn't get their act together so they came to an agreement

It definitely sounds like a bit of a shitshow. To be expected..

...Questions have been raised about how Falcon was able to make this decision. In an email, BCU Deputy Campaign Manager Andrew Wilson said he could not “speak to Caucus’ abilities.” However, he noted that “Under the Party constitution, the Leader of BC United has the ability to unilaterally revoke the nomination of any candidate at their discretion, at any point.”

A BC United legislator said earlier in the day that he had called an emergency meeting of the party caucus to discuss the future of B.C.’s official Opposition, with Peace River South MLA Mike Bernier adding he had been unable to reach Falcon amid reports the party is folding.

Bernier said there’s “obviously something going on” but was unable to say exactly what, adding his phone had been “blowing up” with calls from concerned staff and other MLAs....

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/08/28/bc-united-future-suspension-election/

Note Falcon will not be running in October.

[chowhou]

Weren't we talking about the 338 model? The gains are already present in the model...

Don't forget that we've redistricted this election and a lot of the population growth and new districts are in historically BCL territory.

Just to lay it out for you, 338 pre-BCL merger had the following flips to the BCC:

Abbotsford-Mission
Boundary-Similkameen
Chiliwack North (prev. Chiliwack)
Chiliwack-Cultus Lake (prev. Chiliwack-Kent)
Ladysmith-Oceanside (prev. either Nanaimo-North Cowichan or Parksville-Qualicum)
Langley-Walnut Grove (prev. Langley East)
Langley-Willowbrook (prev. Langley)
Richmond-Queensborough
Vernon-Lumby (prev. Vernon-Monashee)
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

Along with zero flips from the BCL to the NDP; Not to mention they're also picking up the new seats of Kelowna Centre, Langley-Abbotsford, and Vancouver-Yaletown of all places.

That's 13 flips + additions pre-BCL merger. I proposed to you a non-exhaustive list of 6 more likely flips post-merger earlier (if you exclude Fraser Nicola and Richmond Centre). If the BCL + BCC only needed 19 for a majority, well, you do the math.

[Migrant_Coconut]

BC's gained a grand total of six new ridings; three of them are in downtown Van, central Burnaby and central Surrey, which are highly unlikely to go blue, let alone deep blue.

I also thought we’d earlier discounted the idea that every single United voter (if the party even opts to dissolve, that is) would switch to the Cons? Red Tories have a history of swinging right and left. If we’re assuming the blue wave is so tall that Yaletown would elect a woman whom they just voted out of Council (running on a Make Canada Great Again Ticket, no less), then sure, weirder things have happened – otherwise it’s Eby’s campaign to lose. It's not the NDP that's coming apart at the seams and joining a fringe party.

[SpongeG]

On the radio on my way home the calls were interesting, but a few people said they were planning to vote United but not now, they will switch to NDP over Conservatives. The host and Keith Baldry, media guy who covers the legislature, said Falcon has destroyed his reputation. Baldry said he spent 30 minutes with Falcon yesterday and he often was very Anti-Conservative in what he would say and he would never support them etc. and then he flipped his stance in 12 hours.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

BC's gained a grand total of six new ridings; three of them are in downtown Van, central Burnaby and central Surrey, which are highly unlikely to go blue, let alone deep blue.

I also thought we’d earlier discounted the idea that every single United voter (if the party even opts to dissolve, that is) would switch to the Cons? Red Tories have a history of swinging right and left. If we’re assuming the blue wave is so tall that Yaletown would elect a woman whom they just voted out of Council (running on a Make Canada Great Again Ticket, no less), then sure, weirder things have happened

Not every BCL voter has to move to the BCC for them to win the currently contested ridings, they just have to gain more BCL voters than the NDP gain. I guess the question is whether you think old BCL voters are more comfortable siding with their historical enemies the BCNDP or the upstart rightwing BCC party.

It's totally fair to say that 338's model is bad (though you brought it up), but 338 is predicting the new Vancouver-Yaletown district to be a BCC/BCL landslide, and the new Surrey-Serpentine River district to be a tossup (pre-BCL merger).

– otherwise it’s Eby’s campaign to lose. It's not the NDP that's coming apart at the seams and joining a fringe party.

I'll leave you with a quote of mine from about this time before the 2022 civic elections.

Originally Posted by chowhou

Based on opinion polls I've seen, it's definitely Stewart's race to lose.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Depends. If I were a United voter and the party dissolved next week, and the "upstarts" kept lacking any kind of policy beyond "anti-woke" issues and cutting public services (many of which I might depend on), I'd just stay home.

Which is why it's far too early to make any kind of predictions based on any kind of news, including today's. But it's a fact that the Cons can't win without Metro Vancouver... and so far, most of the metro is orange.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Also note that Leger has roughly two-thirds of the remaining United/ex-Liberal voters doubling as federal Liberal voters (page 9). Make of that what you will.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Also note that Leger has roughly two-thirds of the remaining United/ex-Liberal voters doubling as federal Liberal voters (page 9). Make of that what you will.

There are federal Liberal voters left? Who knew.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by whatnext

There are federal Liberal voters left? Who knew.

After BC United folded I learned that Mark Marissen recently announced he's voting for the NDP.

[RedArbutus]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

After BC United folded I learned that Mark Marissen recently announced he's voting for the NDP.

Wow. Pigs really do fly!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

After BC United folded I learned that Mark Marissen recently announced he's voting for the NDP.

I guess we know why he's Christy's ex-husband!