GO/VIA Transit

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

How could a model predict the number of people that would stop driving their cars and take West Harbour GO if there was a dedicated electric track from West Harbour to Aldershot. It couldn't. They will never know the answer unless they build it.

Mode shifts are one of the things they forecast.

For better or worse, they're the best tools available at the moment, and based on known trip patterns gleaned from sources like the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (one of the most comprehensive travel surveys there is). Before they were available transportation planners worked from their own experience (and bias, likely) to consider what would be needed.

Part of the problem isn't their "horrible reputation" (for which I'd like to see your proof and examples) but that their connection to land use change is not two-way, though change in one does lead to change in the other. This is well known, and there is ongoing research into new types of models that account for that relationship in a stronger way. And assumptions change, sometimes in ways not expected such as when a government decides to implement a new growth strategy or change the one that is in place.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

CN and CP are difficult partners when it comes to traditional low frequency, peak direction commuter rail. But they're impossible partners when it comes to frequent all-day service. You'd need to add extra GO exclusive tracks, which for Hamilton Centre would mean re-building the tunnel. Sure one has to prioritize with everything, but it seems a bit absurd for a city of that size to have a downtown train station that gets such limited passenger service in the railway heart of the country. But even if that never happens, the West Harbour tracks aren't that far from downtown and have a more spacious corridor so expanding that might be good enough for quite awhile. Even Germany, the rail capital of the Western world, didn't do everything overnight. It's been upgrading and expanding incrementally for over a century so you can achieve a lot with slow stready progress. As long as you don't stagnate for years and decades on end like we have.

It's unfortunate that the tunnel is both a help and a hindrance. Rebuilding it to carry two tracks would be a massive and disruptive project, which CP would balk at because of impacts to their operations. But the downtown station is very close to so many city bus routes and makes a lot of sense to use for all-day GO services despite not being able to extend those eastward (at least not without further massive investment). Aside from rebuilding the tunnel, there are probably other ideas for large-cost projects that would alleviate the issue or allow for improved passenger and freight services.

It's also unfortunate we don't do incremental transit improvements, at least not with respect to the infrastructure. Metrolinx/GO buying up portions of CN's freight network didn't happen all at once, and I don't think it was as incremental as what you mean, but it has allowed the agency to do things it would otherwise not have been able to accomplish. Toronto's subway network could be very different today had it been expanded on an ongoing basis in shorter steps. While transit infrastructure budgets have increased a lot in the past two decades, I think there's still a "big spend" mentality in how they're apportioned that differs from how we tend to treat improvements to our highway network.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by TheRitsman

And those sophisticated models still suck, largely because they have inputs and assumptions that are incredibly biased.

One example is when Metrolinx shifted GO frequency from 60 minute to 30 minute service long long ago, they expected a certain increase in ridership, but the actual increase was nearly double or triple at certain times. It's why I'd like to know what West Harbor ridership is, and I wonder if it's being kept from the public to avoid public pushing for 30 minute service sooner than planned. I'm planning to do an FOI request possibly to get this information.

When I wrote "Business cases for these projects are based on sophisticated models" I should have included in part, because the travel demand models and passenger forecasts aren't the only things that determine the decision. Politics, public input, finances, internal planning perspectives, how the project relates to current and planned services in the network, considerations for other modes of travel, and other things are all involved in the process.

It's possible service at West Harbour is being kept as-is for now because other priorities are taking precedence. It's worth asking, but I doubt you'll get a response that isn't heavily redacted.

Transparency is better than it used to be (though I think it's regressed under the current Ontario government) but could be much more so.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

It's unfortunate that the tunnel is both a help and a hindrance. Rebuilding it to carry two tracks would be a massive and disruptive project, which CP would balk at because of impacts to their operations. But the downtown station is very close to so many city bus routes and makes a lot of sense to use for all-day GO services despite not being able to extend those eastward (at least not without further massive investment). Aside from rebuilding the tunnel, there are probably other ideas for large-cost projects that would alleviate the issue or allow for improved passenger and freight services.

It's also unfortunate we don't do incremental transit improvements, at least not with respect to the infrastructure. Metrolinx/GO buying up portions of CN's freight network didn't happen all at once, and I don't think it was as incremental as what you mean, but it has allowed the agency to do things it would otherwise not have been able to accomplish. Toronto's subway network could be very different today had it been expanded on an ongoing basis in shorter steps. While transit infrastructure budgets have increased a lot in the past two decades, I think there's still a "big spend" mentality in how they're apportioned that differs from how we tend to treat improvements to our highway network.

For sure; it would be interesting to find out exactly how much cost and disruption would be involved. From what I've read it used to be double-tracked and is only single tracked now since CN wanted to increase the clearance for double-stacked container cars. I assume because having a single track in the center of the tunnel would allow extra clearance since the ceiling is must be arched. So all that would really be needed is to raise the ceiling or lower the floor, both of which would probably be easier than having to widen it. Apparently there have been proposals to lower the floor and the only reason it wasn't done was that it wasn't really needed based on the level of traffic the route received.

[TheHonestMaple]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

For sure; it would be interesting to find out exactly how much cost and disruption would be involved. From what I've read it used to be double-tracked and is only single tracked now since CN wanted to increase the clearance for double-stacked container cars. I assume because having a single track in the center of the tunnel would allow extra clearance since the ceiling is must be arched. So all that would really be needed is to raise the ceiling or lower the floor, both of which would probably be easier than having to widen it. Apparently there have been proposals to lower the floor and the only reason it wasn't done was that it wasn't really needed based on the level of traffic the route received.

The floor was actually already lowered once in the 1990s.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

The floor was actually already lowered once in the 1990s.

Oh I hadn't heard about that.

[TheHonestMaple]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Oh I hadn't heard about that.

In 1995 considerable reconstruction occurred along the former TH&B (now CP) line from the High Level Bridge into Hunter Street GO station as the line was being upgraded for GO Transit. The station underwent a major facelift. The trackbed was lowered thru the half mile long Hunter Street tunnel as well as the Main St overpass in order to accommodate comfortable clearance the GO Bi-levels. The behind schedule and overbudget project took most all of 1995. Here is an image taken in the downtown just west of the tunnel entrance, with CP 5673, 5523 and CR 5625 (new SD60 out of GMD)slowly making it's way toward the US.

I don't think it was ever two tracks. Here's an image from 1966.



I stand corrected. Here is a much older image. Date unkown.

[ScreamingViking]

It would probably be an easier job if they could close Hunter St. (which is atop the tunnel) and open it all up to reconfigure for double-tracks with enough clearance. But Hunter provides access to a number of homes and a few apartment buildings, so that would be a hard sell. I also recall that the tunnel abuts the foundations of some of those taller apartments, so care would be required to mitigate for any issues.

Blue-sky thinking: a newer deeper tunnel just for passenger rail, that carries through under the city up to the CN line for continuation of service into Niagara. Probably many billions of dollars involved, but when dealing with ancient infrastructure sometimes the best option is to avoid messing with it altogether.

In the shorter term if they can find ways to provide more peak-period service to/from the downtown GO centre while improving frequencies through West Harbour and (soon) Confederation, those will be a huge wins.

[Nouvellecosse]

Wow that is ancient. I had no idea (or forgotten?) the tunnel was so old it actually carried steam engines.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

It would probably be an easier job if they could close Hunter St. (which is atop the tunnel) and open it all up to reconfigure for double-tracks with enough clearance. But Hunter provides access to a number of homes and a few apartment buildings, so that would be a hard sell. I also recall that the tunnel abuts the foundations of some of those taller apartments, so care would be required to mitigate for any issues.

Blue-sky thinking: a newer deeper tunnel just for passenger rail, that carries through under the city up to the CN line for continuation of service into Niagara. Probably many billions of dollars involved, but when dealing with ancient infrastructure sometimes the best option is to avoid messing with it altogether.

In the shorter term if they can find ways to provide more peak-period service to/from the downtown GO centre while improving frequencies through West Harbour and (soon) Confederation, those will be a huge wins.

Sounds good and probably not overly expensive if it was just a single track and only had the one underground station. A single track would limit frequency, but the current route could still be used to augment peak service, so the tunnel - depending on how long it was - could have a train every 1/2 hr per direction. If it did, then assuming the speed in the tunnel was 120km/h then a train could cover 30km in 15 minutes without stops. Then if you factor in one underground stop allowing it to be fully stopped 1 minute and allow a minute for acceleration and braking, you'd subtract 2 minutes. So then it would cover up to 26km in 15 minutes. But looking at the actual distances a tunnel of 5-10km could very well achieve what you're describing.

Modern subway tunnels in Canada which are double-tracked and have many more underground stations tend to cost in the rang of $400 million per km. Since stations typically account for about 50% of the cost and the tunnel volume would be much smaller (we'd be using smaller, single-level trains) so the cost per km could easily be half as well. That means a 5km tunnel could potentially be only $1 billion or a bit more if it was longer. And a 5-10km tunnel could probably manage frequency of every 20 min per direction. Also, if the station was near the centre of the tunnel and had two tracks it would allow trains to be timed to meet and pass each other there which would substantially increase frequency with minimal effect on cost.

[TheHonestMaple]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

It would probably be an easier job if they could close Hunter St. (which is atop the tunnel) and open it all up to reconfigure for double-tracks with enough clearance. But Hunter provides access to a number of homes and a few apartment buildings, so that would be a hard sell. I also recall that the tunnel abuts the foundations of some of those taller apartments, so care would be required to mitigate for any issues.

Blue-sky thinking: a newer deeper tunnel just for passenger rail, that carries through under the city up to the CN line for continuation of service into Niagara. Probably many billions of dollars involved, but when dealing with ancient infrastructure sometimes the best option is to avoid messing with it altogether.

In the shorter term if they can find ways to provide more peak-period service to/from the downtown GO centre while improving frequencies through West Harbour and (soon) Confederation, those will be a huge wins.

I feel like dropping the floor and widening this tunnel would be a pretty trivial task for modern engineering.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

I feel like dropping the floor and widening this tunnel would be a pretty trivial task for modern engineering.

It could very well be. But CP would probably cry that it will eliminate profits for years...

I don't blame the national freight railroads for acting as they do, despite my previous comments. As a nation we've prioritized freight over people when it comes to rail. I hope that changes, but the change won't be easy.

[TheHonestMaple]

They could likely keep it operational during the vast majority of construction.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

They could likely keep it operational during the vast majority of construction.

Perhaps for part of the day during a reconfiguration of the arched roof into one that is square, but if they need to dig down any more that track will be out of commission. Maybe that work isn't necessary, as long as the roof clearance can be maintained.

If adding a second track, I wonder if the tunnel is wide enough to handle modern trains side-by-side.

If only this stuff was considered when the thing was built! But it's doubtful that back then people envisioned double-stack freight cars and bi-level passenger coaches.

[TheHonestMaple]

The HSR future concept map should really make it more clear that we effectively have a urban rail line right through the heart of the city once Confederation GO is completed. The current proposed map you can barely even tell that the GO line exists. The entire system should centre around it.

There also should be some sort of high frequency dedicted bus route connecting Hunter Street GO, James Street LRT station, and West Harbour GO. Seems like a no brainer, yet the HSR hasn't even thought of it. They're just running a 30 minute bus service on James Street. Should be like a 10 minute frequency or better.

It should be altered to look like this:

[drpgq]

Yeah I wonder if many will take Confederation to West Harbour as a local transit link. Probably depends a lot on how that fare would be integrated with HSR fares.

[TheHonestMaple]

Originally Posted by drpgq

Yeah I wonder if many will take Confederation to West Harbour as a local transit link. Probably depends a lot on how that fare would be integrated with HSR fares.

The Ontario Government has already implemented the one fair program. If you take GO Transit on any GTHA transit system after taking GO, the bus trip is free. Same thing if you get on the bus first - the GO train trip will be discounted by the amount of the bus ticket.

The Ford Conservative government has done amazing things for transit in this province.

https://www.metrolinx.com/en/project...e-fare-program

[BCTed]

I don't actually imagine Confederation to West Harbour being all that practical for many people. Neither end point is particularly close to anything in particular and I imagine that most transit riders will do better with a bus from Eastgate to King and James, for example, even if the actual ride time is longer.

[drpgq]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

The Ontario Government has already implemented the one fair program. If you take GO Transit on any GTHA transit system after taking GO, the bus trip is free. Same thing if you get on the bus first - the GO train trip will be discounted by the amount of the bus ticket.

The Ford Conservative government has done amazing things for transit in this province.

https://www.metrolinx.com/en/project...e-fare-program

Yeah but how much is that GO fare within the city? It used to be high, but I haven't looked lately.

[ShavedParmesanCheese]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

The Ontario Government has already implemented the one fair program. If you take GO Transit on any GTHA transit system after taking GO, the bus trip is free. Same thing if you get on the bus first - the GO train trip will be discounted by the amount of the bus ticket.

The Ford Conservative government has done amazing things for transit in this province.

https://www.metrolinx.com/en/project...e-fare-program

This has been the case with the HSR for a while already, plus we have free transfers with Burlington Transit