GO/VIA Transit

[TheHonestMaple]

My guess is around 30-50 people get on each hour at West Harbour. Possibly more in the morning.

[TheHonestMaple]

When GO Electrification is finally implemented, will the trains that are electrified pull into West Harbour and Hamilton GO Centre. So for example, if I get on a train at West Harbour in the morning, will the speed of the train and commute in general increase once I reach Burlington station. Or will I still be riding on the old diesel train, and will the trip take the regular 1 hour and 15 minute duration?

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

When GO Electrification is finally implemented, will the trains that are electrified pull into West Harbour and Hamilton GO Centre. So for example, if I get on a train at West Harbour in the morning, will the speed of the train and commute in general increase once I reach Burlington station. Or will I still be riding on the old diesel train, and will the trip take the regular 1 hour and 15 minute duration?

It will be diesel only trains from my understanding, so no speed increase at Burlington.

My understanding however is that Metrolinx plans for the diesel services to run exclusively as express trains, and potentially even as "super express" with a stopping pattern closer to that of the current Niagara GO train services. Based on current schedules, this means a travel time of 1:07.

Metrolinx is also planning on track improvements which should bring that down a bit not related to electrification itself. I know they are planning to make big changes to track speeds around Union Station, for example.

I wouldn't be surprised if travel times are closer to an hour post-GO Expansion, even if still running with diesel services.

[TheHonestMaple]

Hopefully they set it up so that there would be no advantage of exiting the train at Burlington to jump on an electrified train.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

When GO Electrification is finally implemented, will the trains that are electrified pull into West Harbour and Hamilton GO Centre. So for example, if I get on a train at West Harbour in the morning, will the speed of the train and commute in general increase once I reach Burlington station. Or will I still be riding on the old diesel train, and will the trip take the regular 1 hour and 15 minute duration?

As far as I've heard we don't have all the details so it could be dual mode trains or regular diesel trains. But it should speed up regardless since there will be increased overall service frequency which will allow more express services. The train can run from outer stretches into town with fewer intermediate stops so it won't matter that much how fast the acceleration is for them.

**edit** oops should have refreshed first lol.

[TheHonestMaple]

When is construction starting for this electrification? Has it started at all? Kinda feels like all talk, with no action lately.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

It will be diesel only trains from my understanding, so no speed increase at Burlington.

My understanding however is that Metrolinx plans for the diesel services to run exclusively as express trains, and potentially even as "super express" with a stopping pattern closer to that of the current Niagara GO train services. Based on current schedules, this means a travel time of 1:07.

Metrolinx is also planning on track improvements which should bring that down a bit not related to electrification itself. I know they are planning to make big changes to track speeds around Union Station, for example.

I wouldn't be surprised if travel times are closer to an hour post-GO Expansion, even if still running with diesel services.

This isn't completely true from my understanding. Because trains will be operating far more frequently, they'll be much shorter trains (current 12 car trains to future 4 or 5 car trains.) These can accelerate and decelerate much faster, and so there should be around a 10 minute or so improvement in speed to Union.

[TheHonestMaple]

I really wish Metrolinx would just fully invest in Hamilton. It's a massive urban centre right beside Toronto, you'd think it would be a higher priority. I wish they would build a third track from West Harbour to Confederation, electrified. Build a flyover along the harbour for a dedicated GO track, and also rebuild the Hunter Street tunnel to add a second electrified track.

[BCTed]

Originally Posted by TheRitsman

This isn't completely true from my understanding. Because trains will be operating far more frequently, they'll be much shorter trains (current 23 car trains to future 4 or 5 car trains.) These can accelerate and decelerate much faster, and so there should be around a 10 minute or so improvement in speed to Union.

23 car trains? I think the max they do is around 12.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

When is construction starting for this electrification? Has it started at all? Kinda feels like all talk, with no action lately.

The contract is signed and early work is underway. Construction is going to ramp up in the next 12 months.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

I really wish Metrolinx would just fully invest in Hamilton. It's a massive urban centre right beside Toronto, you'd think it would be a higher priority. I wish they would build a third track from West Harbour to Confederation, electrified. Build a flyover along the harbour for a dedicated GO track, and also rebuild the Hunter Street tunnel to add a second electrified track.

I hope so too. It seems a bit lazy to end the upgrades at Aldershot when the rest of the GO improvement plan is so ambitious.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by BCTed

23 car trains? I think the max they do is around 12.

This was a typo. Originally commented "13" went to adjust to 12, but entered the 2 in place of the 1 instead of the 3. Fixed.

[ScreamingViking]

It's frustrating, but the "investments" do need to have tangible benefits fairly early into the life of the new projects.

In the long term, I think they'll be there, but despite the proximity of the two cities it's still too easy for Hamilton GO riders to get to Aldershot or Burlington to use the service to access Toronto jobs.

And CN and CP are not easy partners.

That said, if the West Harbour station is showing much improved use over that of its early days, it bodes well for Confederation. And eventually will for Grimsby and other points along the Niagara corridor. Despite the WFH ethic that so many people have post-pandemic, I think that mentality does do much to serve longer train rides. Being able to work on the train, on a longer trip, seems much more palatable now.

In the far longer term, there is potential for "reverse" commuting into Hamilton. I think the city needs to consider how it can support that, but it'll take time and effort and changes in many things related to how we work and also the commercial real estate market.

[TheHonestMaple]

i think its more of a 'build it and they will come'.

[matt602]

I definitely think Confederation station will grow just as fast or even faster than West Harbour has in the same time. The Rymal bus that serves it has exploded in ridership over the past 5 years and Confederation Park/Wild Waterworks are really popular in the summer.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple

i think its more of a 'build it and they will come'.

Business cases for these projects are based on sophisticated models that offer the most reliable (at least in terms of point in time) projections of travel demand.

Metrolinx also has to balance what it spends against the funding it is provided. It's about priorities... and there are other projects which should have been built years ago based on trip demand (Hamilton LRT, for example) that take precedence. And there is the political side of things that influences project priority too.

But the GO network is extremely important for the entire Greater Golden Horseshoe area, so I bet that once other projects are under way and especially if nearing completion we'll see things like heavy rail improvements in Hamilton and Niagara come to the fore.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

It's frustrating, but the "investments" do need to have tangible benefits fairly early into the life of the new projects.

In the long term, I think they'll be there, but despite the proximity of the two cities it's still too easy for Hamilton GO riders to get to Aldershot or Burlington to use the service to access Toronto jobs.

And CN and CP are not easy partners.

That said, if the West Harbour station is showing much improved use over that of its early days, it bodes well for Confederation. And eventually will for Grimsby and other points along the Niagara corridor. Despite the WFH ethic that so many people have post-pandemic, I think that mentality does do much to serve longer train rides. Being able to work on the train, on a longer trip, seems much more palatable now.

In the far longer term, there is potential for "reverse" commuting into Hamilton. I think the city needs to consider how it can support that, but it'll take time and effort and changes in many things related to how we work and also the commercial real estate market.

CN and CP are difficult partners when it comes to traditional low frequency, peak direction commuter rail. But they're impossible partners when it comes to frequent all-day service. You'd need to add extra GO exclusive tracks, which for Hamilton Centre would mean re-building the tunnel. Sure one has to prioritize with everything, but it seems a bit absurd for a city of that size to have a downtown train station that gets such limited passenger service in the railway heart of the country. But even if that never happens, the West Harbour tracks aren't that far from downtown and have a more spacious corridor so expanding that might be good enough for quite awhile. Even Germany, the rail capital of the Western world, didn't do everything overnight. It's been upgrading and expanding incrementally for over a century so you can achieve a lot with slow stready progress. As long as you don't stagnate for years and decades on end like we have.

[TheHonestMaple]

How could a model predict the number of people that would stop driving their cars and take West Harbour GO if there was a dedicated electric track from West Harbour to Aldershot. It couldn't. They will never know the answer unless they build it.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Business cases for these projects are based on sophisticated models that offer the most reliable (at least in terms of point in time) projections of travel demand.

Metrolinx also has to balance what it spends against the funding it is provided. It's about priorities... and there are other projects which should have been built years ago based on trip demand (Hamilton LRT, for example) that take precedence. And there is the political side of things that influences project priority too.

But the GO network is extremely important for the entire Greater Golden Horseshoe area, so I bet that once other projects are under way and especially if nearing completion we'll see things like heavy rail improvements in Hamilton and Niagara come to the fore.

And those sophisticated models still suck, largely because they have inputs and assumptions that are incredibly biased.

One example is when Metrolinx shifted GO frequency from 60 minute to 30 minute service long long ago, they expected a certain increase in ridership, but the actual increase was nearly double or triple at certain times. It's why I'd like to know what West Harbor ridership is, and I wonder if it's being kept from the public to avoid public pushing for 30 minute service sooner than planned. I'm planning to do an FOI request possibly to get this information.

[TheHonestMaple]

I agree with Ritsman. A model is only as strong as it's base assumptions. And transportation models have a horrible reputation at being unreliable and inaccurate. The world of transportation is far too complex to model with any level of reliability. Chaotic systems are nearly impossible to model.

If an electrified flyover was built connecting Aldershot to West Harbour, that station might experience a ten fold increase in ridership. Or, no increase. Very difficult to predict people's decision making. At the very least, there is a strong argument to build it just based on reducing conflict with CN.