The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonRad]

A very interesting post from the Canada section statistics thread:

Originally Posted by Laceoflight

The last population estimates from July 1, 2023 are interesting to look at, and I have been pleased to read all of this thead. What is even more interesting, though, is that after the (vast and expensive) consultation that were held a few years before last census (2021), which I have taken part of, Statistics Canada have decided to maintain its census metropolitan area delineation method, rather than update to a method that is becoming standard worldwide, the Functional Urban Areas (developed in collaboration with OECD and EU).

Basically, this method is simple : there are urban centres or "cities" which are defined as continuous built-up spaces. All the municipalities where most of the population live in that continuous built-up space are considered part of the "city" (in other words, the urban core). There are thresholds for size, which are based on the number of jobs, density and population of said cores. For example, the core of a functional urban area of greater importance consists of a conurbation of at least 50k population, 10k jobs and 1500ppl/sqkm. There are many sources online where you can find the detail for this method. There is then a threshold of 15% commuting between "cities". It a city sends more than 15% of its working population to another city, it is considered as a secondary "urban core" of this second city. You understand that there is no such thing as Hamilton, Oshawa, Abbotsford, Valleyfield, etc. with this method. Which is the interesting part.

The delineation method that is used in Canada for CMAs is pretty much unique worldwide, which limits comparisons when it comes to urban matters (public health, urban growth, urban sprawl, etc.) I am a researcher attached to the Urban development chair at UdeM. For most of our analysis, we use, for Canada, the data for Functional Urban Areas (Aires d'attraction des villes en français). We can therefore do some comparisons with european cities, for example. We work closely with Statistics Canada : they provide us with the granular data (ex.: census blocks, attributes, etc., which are all public by the way), and mostly, the number of jobs by census block.

Anyway, as we keep track of this data, I thought I'd share it with you, in order to add another perspective when it comes to comparing urban areas in Canada. I will be glad to answer your questions, even though demographics is not my field of study - I work in environmental geography, landscape and cultural heritage. I may have to ask colleagues before being able to come back to you.


So, according to the July 1st 2023 estimates that were released recently, Canada's main Functional Urban Areas are :

Position. Population. Name

1.   8 854 488   Toronto, ON
2.   4 925 560   Montréal, QC
3.   3 342 027   Vancouver, BC
4.   1 787 183   Calgary, AB
5.   1 745 823   Ottawa / Gatineau, ON/QC
6.   1 597 116   Edmonton, AB
7.   1 005 982   Québec, QC
8.     998 548   Winnipeg, MB
9.     683 300   Kitchener / Cambridge / Waterloo, ON
10.    682 528   London, ON
11.    552 728   Halifax, NS
12.    453 695   Victoria, BC
13.    441 736   St. Catharines / Niagara Falls, ON
14.    434 729   Windsor, ON
15.    371 640   Saskatoon, SK
16.    291 198   Sherbrooke, QC
17.    290 871   Regina, SK
18.    253 027   St. John's, NL
19.    246 789   Kelowna, BC
20.    240 197   Moncton, NB
21.    235 600   Kingston, ON
22.    214 141   Guelph, ON
23.    213 244   Trois-Rivières, QC
24.    204 585   Red Deer, AB
25.    192 723   Sudbury, ON
26.    182 072   Saguenay, QC
27.    171 685   Belleville / Trenton, ON
28.    154 156   Lethbridge, AB
29.    152 330   Fredericton, NB
30.    151 501   Peterborough, ON
31.    149 516   Nanaimo, BC
32.    146 943   Saint John, NB
33.    132 733   Kamloops, BC
34.    131 212   Thunder Bay, ON
35.    129 190   Drummondville, QC
36.    122 182   Granby, QC
37.    116 452   Sarnia, ON
38.    113 755   Charlottetown, PE
39.    113 238   Chatham-Kent, ON
40.    111 033   Sydney (Cape Breton), NS
41.    104 789   Joliette, QC
42.    101 444   North Bay, ON
43.    100 484   Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
44.    100 006   Grande Prairie, AB

A few remarks :

• There is a problem with the inconsistency of census subdivisions, espacially in BC and AB, where immense municipal districts create municipal enclaves within them. The urban areas in these 2 provinces, especially Alberta, tend to grow add no municipality for a few censuses, and then add like 10 or 15 in one census, because the sum of commuting worker for a whole municipal district and all of its enclaves combined reaches 15%. The same problem is experienced with the official Statistics Canada method.
• The Toronto FUA (functional urban area) comprises Hamilton, Oshawa, Barrie, Milton and Brantford, which are all secondary cores of category A. The statiscal "city" of Brantford sends 15,33% of its working population to Toronto and adjacent municipalities.
• In Vancouver, Abbotsford (A), Mission (C) and Chilliwack (B) are all considered as secondary cores.
• For Montreal, Saint-Jérôme (A), Salaberry-de-Valleyfield (B) and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu (B) are also considered as secondary cores. Saint-Hyacinthe, Sorel and Joliette are not close to become secondary cores.
• Outside of the larger 3 agglomerations, we note that Shawinigan, QC is only at 1,01% of commuting to becoming a secondary core to Trois-Rivières. We consider them separate for now. It is also interesting that Louiseville, a C-category "city", is now at 13.7% commuting to Trois-Rivières. But outside of the suburban world, these stats tend to take time to increase, and honestly, we would prefer not to see it happen.
• Sainte-Marie, QC sends 13.21% of its working force to Québec, QC. Seeing the growth of this rate in the last 2 censuses, the "city" should join QC in 5 or 10 years.
• Airdrie, AB, is a secondary core to Calgary (46% of commuting)
• Guelph, ON, is closer to be added to the FUA of Toronto (8,7% of commuting) than it is to join KCW (4,0% of commuting). Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo is not even close to join Toronto either (3.64% of commuting); it is still fairly independent.
• Vernon, BC and Kelowna are not close to merge.
• Cobourg, ON will not likely be integrated soon to Toronto, but it is getting closer (11% commuting). So is Midland (11% also). Brighton could eventually be integrated to Belleville-Trenton, but is not close enough for now (10.5%).
• Alma, QC could eventually join Saguenay, but it will take some time (understand : decades) (11% commuting). If Sorel grows more, it could also eventually be added to Montreal, but recent trends suggest otherwise (10%). Same goes for Coaticook to Sherbrooke (10.3%), and Cowansville to Granby (10%).
• Shediac is already integrated into the Moncton FUA (44% commuting for the combined town and parish).

I hope it was informative. Don't forget : these are all just stats, and they mostly are useful to compare apples to apples. This is not a popularity contest or an indicator of greatness.

So, using the internationally accepted Functional Urban Area definition, here are the main Atlantic Canadian population centres:

1) Halifax - 552,728
2) St. John's - 253,027
3) Moncton - 240,197
4) Fredericton - 152,330
5) Saint John - 146,943
6) Charlottetown - 113,755
7) Sydney (CBRM) - 111,033

Discuss......

Personal note. As of June 1st 2024, Moncton is likely on the cusp of a FUA of 250,000. There is a real possibility our FUA could pass St. John's in population within the next 3-5 years.

[Taeolas]

Wow, I didn't expect Freddy's FUA to be bigger than Saint John. SJ feels like it has more communities around it that would be gulped up by the FUA. Freddy basically has Oromocto and if you squint you might get Nackawic, but the rest of its bedrooms (Hanwell, New Maryland, etc...) aren't all that big compared to SJs. I'm a bit curious to see what actually gets pulled into the New Brunswick FUAs.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

A very interesting post from the Canada section statistics thread:


So, using the internationally accepted Functional Urban Area definition, here are the main Atlantic Canadian population centres:

1) Halifax - 552,728
2) St. John's - 253,027
3) Moncton - 240,197
4) Fredericton - 152,330
5) Saint John - 146,943
6) Charlottetown - 113,755
7) Sydney (CBRM) - 111,033

Discuss......

Personal note. As of June 1st 2024, Moncton is likely on the cusp of a FUA of 250,000. There is a real possibility our FUA could pass St. John's in population within the next 3-5 years.

Is the Université de Moncton or the Université de Montréal the source of these stats?

Sounds like NB needs to get much more serious about amalgamation. We could have well over 500,000 people living in the three largest municipalities instead of the 235,00 we currently have living within the three largest municipalities in NB.

Personal note. The Saint John is clearly not growing in as organic and sustainable way as Moncton or Fredericton, and the eastward focus of its growth has limited its overall population growth as seen by Fredericton’s functional urban area now being larger than Saint John’s.


All the more reason for SJ and Fredericton to spur on development between the two cities, and push for a shared airport. As at some point, it could be considered two CMAs within one FUA.

NB needs to come up with better strategies to lower rental prices, and keep housing more affordable than the Canadian average. The best way to do that is to increase the housing supply and control the cost of rent by any means necessary. There has to be more incentive for people to stay in NB. There’s lots of incentive still for people who can afford to buy homes, but little incentive for educated people who rent to stay here in NB. The provincial government needs to spend money of the surplus on subsidizing and funding housing in our three main centres.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Is the Université de Moncton or the Université de Montréal the source of these stats?

There is no conspiracy. He works at Universite de Montreal.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Wow, I didn't expect Freddy's FUA to be bigger than Saint John. SJ feels like it has more communities around it that would be gulped up by the FUA. Freddy basically has Oromocto and if you squint you might get Nackawic, but the rest of its bedrooms (Hanwell, New Maryland, etc...) aren't all that big compared to SJs. I'm a bit curious to see what actually gets pulled into the New Brunswick FUAs.

I would imagine it's because all of SJ's bedroom communities are already included in the current CMA, while both Freddy and Moncton have adjacent communities which are outside the CMA (Oromocto and Shediac for example). Using the FUA definition, these boost the numbers for Freddy and Moncton more than any change for SJ.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

There is no conspiracy. He works at Universite de Montreal.

Conspiracy? I was wondering which UdeM is all , yeeesh lol

What’s the source of these figures then? Do you have a link to share or just the figures supplied by “Laceoflight”?

[Nashe]

Something that strikes me too is how being truly coastal (St. John's, Saint John, Halifax) seems to put a bit of a "brake" on how many outlying areas a FUA can ingest. St. John's and Halifax (in particular) are isolated enough that they can only really absorb in limited directions and might be near their limits, given how their CMAs have snagged all adjacent areas already. Fredericton and Moncton don't have those problems and people can commute from all directions. Might just be a hunch, but the opportunities for Moncton/Freddy just seem a bit less limited geographically.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

A very interesting post from the Canada section statistics thread:



So, using the internationally accepted Functional Urban Area definition, here are the main Atlantic Canadian population centres:

1) Halifax - 552,728
2) St. John's - 253,027
3) Moncton - 240,197
4) Fredericton - 152,330
5) Saint John - 146,943
6) Charlottetown - 113,755
7) Sydney (CBRM) - 111,033

Discuss......

Personal note. As of June 1st 2024, Moncton is likely on the cusp of a FUA of 250,000. There is a real possibility our FUA could pass St. John's in population within the next 3-5 years.

This confirms what I already suspected from Moncton. The Fredericton, Charlottetown and Sydney numbers are equally impressive.
It's really impressive that the Moncton Functional Urban Area could reach 300,000 in 4-5 years!

I had overheard city planners & architects mention the "Moncton Region" true population was roughly 200,000 a few years ago, these stats only confirms they weren't making up numbers.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

What’s the source of these figures then? Do you have a link to share or just the figures supplied by “Laceoflight”?

Personal work of the author I imagine, but he is an academic familiar with FUA definitions. If you have concerns, you could PM him.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Personal work of the author I imagine, but he is an academic familiar with FUA definitions. If you have concerns, you could PM him.

No concerns, just curious if there’s a source or more information on how these FUA stats are formulated. Figured UdeM was also used for Moncton’s university. I guess not.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

No concerns, just curious if there’s a source or more information on how these FUA stats are formulated. Figured UdeM was also used for Moncton’s university. I guess not.

Lace appears quite open to discussion about the terms and numbers in the Canada thread, I believe they welcome it. From what I understand, the raw data comes from Stat Canada, but the way the data is "clumped" is done differently with Canada's "Old CMA-Way" and the "New Global-FUA" way. Same persons, different grouping criteria, different standards agencies.

[MonctonRad]

The international FUA seems very similar to the American CSA in terms of definition. The Canadian CMA appears to be the outlier.

Perhaps Canada should update their practices, although, by using FUA rather than CMA, it would make it impossible to measure statistical changes over time. You would be starting at day one all over again.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The international FUA seems very similar to the American CSA in terms of definition. The Canadian CMA appears to be the outlier.

Perhaps Canada should update their practices, although, by using FUA rather than CMA, it would make it impossible to measure statistical changes over time. You would be starting at day one all over again.

It would be a little more expensive, but probably their best plan would be to do dual stats, release CMA stats and FUA stats, at least for a few cycles so recent historical trends can be maintained. But the underlying data is basically all available, coming from the same place, it's just packaging slightly differently.

I pointed out in the main thread that we might be getting to the point where we need a tier above CMA to account for how our megalopolis's like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, are butting up to their satellite CMAs; FUAs could be that 'higher' tier.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I pointed out in the main thread that we might be getting to the point where we need a tier above CMA to account for how our megalopolis's like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, are butting up to their satellite CMAs; FUAs could be that 'higher' tier.

Good point.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The international FUA seems very similar to the American CSA in terms of definition. The Canadian CMA appears to be the outlier.

Perhaps Canada should update their practices, although, by using FUA rather than CMA, it would make it impossible to measure statistical changes over time. You would be starting at day one all over again.

That would be great for Fredericton and Saint John as they’d already be one CSA according to the American metric, and it would give a lot more credibility to the two cities sharing an airport, which would be a game changer for the entire region.

What’s already basically a CSA of 300,000 people could one day be a FUA with 400,000+ people with an Aerotropolis at its centre. A shared airport midway between Saint John and Fredericton could be a catalytic push for suburban development north of Saint John, towards the airport. Such a project could help
correct decades of disproportionately eastward growth, by promoting growth north of the city towards the airport.

If the NB government and Transport Canada could think long term and make this common sense idea a reality in our lifetimes, the economic and demographic benefits would far outweigh the costs to build the airport. We shouldn’t let the tens of millions invested into YFC and YSJ get in a way of an idea with multi billion dollar potential, and which would be at the very least a decade in the making from start to finish.

YFC and YSJ could still be converted into something economically beneficial like mainly cargo airports with some room for general aviation and private charter flights. Both CMA’s would benefit greatly from such an arrangement, even KV, as the airport would be the impetus for finally building some bridges across the Kingston peninsula, making it a more attractive location for suburban development. Cheaper flights into the region could even help increase immigration, as how prohibitively expensive it can be to fly into Saint John and Fredericton currently has a negative impact on immigration to both CMAs.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

That would be great for Fredericton and Saint John as they’d already be one CSA according to the American metric, and it would give a lot more credibility to the two cities sharing an airport, which would be a game changer for the entire region.

What’s already basically a CSA of 300,000 people could one day be a FUA with 400,000+ people with an Aerotropolis at its centre. A shared airport midway between Saint John and Fredericton could be a catalytic push for suburban development north of Saint John, towards the airport. Such a project could help
correct decades of disproportionately eastward growth, by promoting growth north of the city towards the airport.

If the NB government and Transport Canada could think long term and make this common sense idea a reality in our lifetimes, the economic and demographic benefits would far outweigh the costs to build the airport. We shouldn’t let the tens of millions invested into YFC and YSJ get in a way of an idea with multi billion dollar potential, and which would be at the very least a decade in the making from start to finish.

YFC and YSJ could still be converted into something economically beneficial like mainly cargo airports with some room for general aviation and private charter flights. Both CMA’s would benefit greatly from such an arrangement, even KV, as the airport would be the impetus for finally building some bridges across the Kingston peninsula, making it a more attractive location for suburban development. Cheaper flights into the region could even help increase immigration, as how prohibitively expensive it can be to fly into Saint John and Fredericton currently has a negative impact on immigration to both CMAs.

While that's a great idea since that would put YFC/YSJ on a level playing field with YQM, either airport would be 25-30 years away from seeing good pricing on tickets IMO. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think YQM are significantly cheaper than YFC/YSJ if at all. We would still need to travel to Halifax to get half decent prices for some time.

The only way to compete with Halifax pricing is by having a Tri-city airport, but that will never happen.


Canada's busiest airports by passenger traffic 2023
1 Greater Toronto Area 44,800,000[2] 25.8% Increase
2 Metro Vancouver 24,938,184[3] 30.9% Increase
3 Greater Montreal 21,173,941[4] 32.5% Increase
4 Calgary Metropolitan Region 18,490,283[5] 27.9% Increase
5 Edmonton Metropolitan Region 7,499,163[6] 28.2% Increase
6 Ottawa National Capital Region 4,095,914[7] 36.9% Increase
7 Winnipeg Capital Region 4,094,793[8] 35.1% Increase
8 Halifax 3,579,293[9] 15.2% Increase
9 Toronto Increase
10 Kelowna/Okanagan Valley 2,032,624[10] 18.3% Increase
11 Greater Victoria 1,740,107[11] 16.8% Increase
12 Quebec City Metropolitan Region 1,688,736[12] 43.8% Increase
13 Saskatoon Metropolitan Area 1,277,863[13] 34.2% Increase
14 Fraser Valley 1,275,484[14] 28.5% Increase
15 St. John's Metropolitan Area 1,260,000[15] 17.4% Increase
16 Regina 981,845[16] 28.5% Increase
17 Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area 820,011[17] 27.0% Increase
18 Thunder Bay 714,070[18] 18.7% Increase
19 Greater Moncton 600,121[19] 28.0% Increase
20 Waterloo Region 445,312[20] 18.4% Increase
21 Prince George 417,848[21] 14.6% Increase
22 Charlottetown 402,686[22] 17.9% Increase
23 Comox 371,989[23] 15.0% Increase
24 Fort McMurray International Airport Wood Buffalo 367,627[24] 14.8% Increase
25 Fredericton 333,813[25] 25% Increase
26 London 332,447[26] 31% Increase

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_Canada

Saint John wasn't listed but I'm surprised to see Charlottetown surpassed Fredericton. I always assumed PEI mostly relied on Moncton, but I guess that's no longer the case. I'm guessing Saint John was around 250,000, if you combine that with Fredericton that would put potential passenger traffic at 583,813 which puts it on par with Moncton.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

I'm guessing Saint John was around 250,000, if you combine that with Fredericton that would put potential passenger traffic at 583,813 which puts it on par with Moncton.

The last time I checked, passenger volumes out of YSJ were in the vicinity of 175,000.

[ChampduLarge]

Re: Amalgamation (mentioned above). Has there ever been actual savings from amalgamation? I don't think so, certainly in Toronto there were none after 1998. A couple of things, shorter term:
- Huge investments in IT and transition as multiple systems such as procurement, HR etc. are brought together into a single system.
- In general, amalgamation only works when services are levelled up. It's hard to say, for instance, that Dieppe must no longer have a service because it was not offered in Riverview. What tends to happen is that the services get enhanced to more or less the highest level across the municipalities. An example of this is sidewalk shovelling in Toronto, in the former city it was the responsibility of the homeowner but it was done in the suburbs by the city. It was only last year that the city took on this for Toronto as well, which shows me that even 25 years later levelling up is still occurring.
- There might be some savings in HR, but the same levelling up happens in salaries as well. Planners are getting $55,000 in Dieppe, $50,000 in Moncton, and $40,000 in Riverview. When things are consolidated, maybe have have fewer planners, but they will all be paid $55,000. Which means you just bought yourself fewer and more expensive planners.
- The administration of the amalgamation, from staff cuts to where people work, to consolidated policies, insurance providers and benefits, all of this takes up an incredible amount of time and the result is that for years the city has less focus on its core mandate.

I could go on. If there are savings, and I doubt there are, they are pushed so far into the future that we'll mostly be gone by the time they are realized. I have come to think that the US way, which is that most urban areas are made up of small communities, and there is some overall coordination, might be better.

Also, can we please drop the notion of a single airport? Imagine you are organizing a conference, and choosing between Charlottetown, Halifax or Moncton. The other two have airports within the city, a $50 or cab ride and half an hour, and for Moncton it's well over an hour and a $100. Who would do this? Also, the fun of being 45 minutes out of town in January on snowy rides to get to your flight and finding that it's been delayed by two hours. Right now you go back home. With the big airport in Sussex, you ...

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by ChampduLarge

Re: Amalgamation (mentioned above). Has there ever been actual savings from amalgamation? I don't think so, certainly in Toronto there were none after 1998. A couple of things, shorter term:
- Huge investments in IT and transition as multiple systems such as procurement, HR etc. are brought together into a single system.
- In general, amalgamation only works when services are levelled up. It's hard to say, for instance, that Dieppe must no longer have a service because it was not offered in Riverview. What tends to happen is that the services get enhanced to more or less the highest level across the municipalities. An example of this is sidewalk shovelling in Toronto, in the former city it was the responsibility of the homeowner but it was done in the suburbs by the city. It was only last year that the city took on this for Toronto as well, which shows me that even 25 years later levelling up is still occurring.
- There might be some savings in HR, but the same levelling up happens in salaries as well. Planners are getting $55,000 in Dieppe, $50,000 in Moncton, and $40,000 in Riverview. When things are consolidated, maybe have have fewer planners, but they will all be paid $55,000. Which means you just bought yourself fewer and more expensive planners.
- The administration of the amalgamation, from staff cuts to where people work, to consolidated policies, insurance providers and benefits, all of this takes up an incredible amount of time and the result is that for years the city has less focus on its core mandate.

I could go on. If there are savings, and I doubt there are, they are pushed so far into the future that we'll mostly be gone by the time they are realized. I have come to think that the US way, which is that most urban areas are made up of small communities, and there is some overall coordination, might be better.

Also, can we please drop the notion of a single airport? Imagine you are organizing a conference, and choosing between Charlottetown, Halifax or Moncton. The other two have airports within the city, a $50 or cab ride and half an hour, and for Moncton it's well over an hour and a $100. Who would do this? Also, the fun of being 45 minutes out of town in January on snowy rides to get to your flight and finding that it's been delayed by two hours. Right now you go back home. With the big airport in Sussex, you ...

I’m going to take a wild guess that you live outside the city limits?

Amalgamation was a great success for Halifax, why wouldn’t it also be a great success for Saint John?

The city of Saint John had over 90,000 people in the early 1970’s. Where do you think all these people went? Hint— they didn’t all go to Alberta. Most just moved 15-20 minutes outside the city, or even less for many when you consider that Rothesay is not even a minute outside the city limits.

In most other cities in Canada, the wealthiest, most exclusive suburbs are within the city limits, they aren’t suburb’s masquerading as towns like Rothesay and Quispamsis. The Saint John Region is like an analogous microcosm of Detroit, and very much an outlier in Canada, especially regarding our tax laws. The highest paid people in Saint John overwhelmingly live outside the city they work in or have derived their wealth from, and that includes many of the highest paid workers at the City of Saint John. It’s glaringly obvious that it’s time for a change, but no one really likes to talk about it, or has given up hope that amalgamation will ever be realized.

It should be an election issue right now, but so far it’s not, and hasn’t been for many election cycles. Gallant made a huge miscalculation not amalgamating The Saint John Region when he had the chance. His party didn’t win a single vote in Saint John’s bedroom communities, but Saint John swung the balance of the election in favour of Higgs PCs. Had Gallant delivered amalgamation, instead of just moving his office to SJ and promising the city a bailout, his Liberals likely would have picked up at least one more seat in SJ which would have won him the 2018 election. Gallant said he didn’t want to force amalgamations on any communities that didn’t want them (something Higgs’s PCs partially did in the Moncton and Fredericton regions).

It’s never been about forcing the bedroom communities to become part of the City of Saint John, it’s always been about tax fairness and equity within the greater region. There’s no need to call the amalgamated region, “The Saint John Regional Municipality”, or for Rothesay, Quispamsis, Grand Bay, etc to be wiped off the map. Call the newly amalgamated region something else, like the Fundy Regional Municipality, let Rothesay stay Rothesay, Quispamsis stay Quispam, and Saint John stay Saint John… but let’s actually bring about some equity and fairness to the region surrounding the issue of property taxes. Another one of our cheerfully optimistic posters who lives in Saint John said he doesn’t want to see Brent Harris types unleashed on the valley I don’t think he could be anymore wrong with that short sighted statement. Not only would amalgamating with the valley make it harder for grifters like Harris to get onto council, people from the valley could then run for common council or mayor of the amalgamated region, which they certainly can’t do right now.

Pretty much all the city’s problems can be traced directly back to provincial legislation that prevents us from taxing industry fairly and getting a fair share of tax revenue sharing from the bedroom communities, and provincial governments that promise comprehensive changes which they never deliver. The more you learn about tax law in NB, the more you'll feel sad about the missed opportunity of Saint John. With normal Canadian tax laws this city could be a beacon of economic prosperity and lifestyle on the east coast, but instead Saint John continues to struggle with financial instability. The city might have gone bankrupt by now, if it wasn’t for the sudden interest in maritime real estate and all kinds of “come from aways” (hilarious term, btw) moving here since 2020.

___


As for the airport, maybe check in on the multiple threads that have discussed this topic lately, or re-read the comments made regarding airports in this thread. A shared airport between the three cities is not the best idea, and for SJ it would only further increase urban sprawl eastward which would not be ideal. However, a shared airport between Saint John and Fredericton makes way too much sense not to at least study. Imo, it’s a brilliant idea that locals leaders in both cities should be advocating for, and that the provincial government should be bold enough to pursue.

It’s an idea with billion dollar potential written all over it, that some posters here are myopically getting hung up over recent investments in YFC and YSJ as reasons for why it shouldn’t happen in the foreseeable future. Not only would it help correct decades of heavily eastward urban sprawl in the SJ region, it would give both Saint John and Fredericton a far more competitive airport for the future. It’s not like it would be a project that would be realized in the short term anyways, it would probably be at least a decade away from starting to be built if the province and Transport Canada could agree to make it a reality. YFC and YSJ could transition to mainly cargo focussed airports with room for general aviation and charter flights. The province is on track to surpass a million people and Saint John and Fredericton could end up being part of a single Functioning Urban Area with over 400,000 people with an Aerotropolis at the centre of the region. Typical New Brunswick attitude to not see the forest between the trees. It would be a win-win for Fredericton and Saint John, and even Moncton or the whole province for that matter. An airport that can actually compete with with Moncton’s airport is good for Moncton, and good for Saint John and Fredericton. The only people who might not like it are rich namby pambies out in Rothesay and Quispamsis who don’t want to give up their current ten minute drive to the airport. Well, boo hoo to them. Other than the longer drive to the airport, it would still be a good thing for them, considering how often people from the Saint John Region already drive to Fredericton, Moncton, and even Halifax or Bangor to catch flights. Pugsley made an entire thread about the idea, you should check it out…it’s a real banger of an idea that should catch the eyes of big time decision makers that actually have the power to get things done in this province, unlike us armchair internet experts here on skyscraperspage.com

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

A very interesting post from the Canada section statistics thread:



So, using the internationally accepted Functional Urban Area definition, here are the main Atlantic Canadian population centres:

1) Halifax - 552,728
2) St. John's - 253,027
3) Moncton - 240,197
4) Fredericton - 152,330
5) Saint John - 146,943
6) Charlottetown - 113,755
7) Sydney (CBRM) - 111,033

Discuss......

Personal note. As of June 1st 2024, Moncton is likely on the cusp of a FUA of 250,000. There is a real possibility our FUA could pass St. John's in population within the next 3-5 years.

I would love to see the breakdown of all the communities.

With the Moncton FUA around 250,000 and likely growing by 12,000+ annually the Moncton FUA should be breaking 300,000 in 4 years!!! With 30 years of momentum behind Moncton it feels like the city's on the cusp of unprecedented accelerated growth. Once the plethora of high rise buildings are completed in the next 3-10 years the city will be completely unrecognizable, especially downtown. The downtown's usable/walkable area is set to double, even triple in the next 8-12 years. Our excessive surface parking has been both a curse but a blessing for growth. I'm glad the city never developed the surface parking into boring 4-6 story building. We could potentially be flirting with an FUA of 550,000+ by 2050 (26 years x 12,000 = 312,000)