Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

But like I said it's not a magic wand either of course. It's completely possible that an independent Québec could go the way of Venezuela (in the worst case scenario). Although, being an independent country, they would probably pay much more attention to what they are doing, knowing that there is no Ottawa to bail them out anymore. Like a young adult becoming financially independent from their parents, and therefore more serious.

An independent Quebec won't fall to Poland levels of prosperity, let alone Venezuela. It's an advanced economy with well-run institutions and low corruption. It will always be a fairly prosperous place.

On the other hand, I don't see an independent Quebec being more prosperous than the ROC.

It's not just that most of the stuff that Canada can sell to the world lies somewhere else, it's that the way Quebec's economy is distributed is somewhat concerning.

Almost all growth and economic diversification seems to take place in and around Greater Montreal. Ontario isn't exactly the United States, but its smaller cities - Ottawa, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, even Windsor - all have more value-added export jobs and economic diversity than their Quebec equivalents. Even Quebec City is really just a government town.

In an independent Quebec, I see the anymosity between Montreal and the hinterlands actually growing. Speaking about England, I can see a London vs. everyone else dynamic taking root in Quebec more than in the ROC vis-a-vis Toronto.

[New Brisavoine]

If you're curious how Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver compare to a few other US metro areas... Again keep in mind these are strictly comparable metro areas based on the international definition of the FUA.

I'm also adding Sydney and Melbourne for comparison.

Real GDP per capita growth 2001-2019:
- San Francisco-San Jose metro area: +62.4%
- Seattle metro area: +45.5%
- New York City metro area: +35.2%
- Boston metro area: +34.6%
- Los Angeles metro area: +32.3%
- Washington-Baltimore metro area: +25.9%
- Philadelphia metro area: +24.4%
- Chicago metro area: +23.9%
- Vancouver metro area: +20.9%
- Dallas metro area: +19.4%
- Houston metro area: +16.7%
- Montréal metro area: +13.4%
- Sydney metro area: +12.3%
- Melbourne metro area: +6.0%
- Toronto metro area: +2.4%

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

An independent Quebec won't fall to Poland levels of prosperity, let alone Venezuela.

Le pire n'est jamais certain mais est toujours possible, as we say in French. Never say never. Venezuelans discussing here in 1990 could never have imagined that Venezuela could fall so low. Just look how Spain declined for 3 straight centuries from 1650 to 1950. From #1 power of Europe to underdeveloped backwater.

I'm very pessimistic about the future of France personally, but that's another issue.

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Even Quebec City is really just a government town.

Is it? Québec City looks to me much more vibrant than Springfield, Illinois or Lansing, Michigan...

Québec City is the size of Nantes, and quite vibrant like Nantes. It's not a sleepy administrative capital with no functions beyond hosting the local state congress.

It could do with a warmer weather though.

Give me Québec City with the weather of California, and I would gladly move there.

[Acajack]

It's worth mentioning that I don't think I ever heard a PQ person say that Quebec as a country would be richer than the ROC.

Their discourse has always been that things would be fine economically, generally acknowledging that it might take a bit of a hit in the first couple of years.

If you'd ask them they'd say they think Quebec would similar to France, Finland or Japan in terms of overall prosperity.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

If you'd ask them they'd say they think Quebec would similar to France, Finland or Japan in terms of overall prosperity.

Finland has a GDP per capita slightly higher than Canada, and France almost the same as Canada (and perhaps higher now with the record arrivals of immigrants in Canada last year). Only Japan has a GDP per capita lower than Canada (but with an age structure that is completely different from Canada).

So if they want to have GDP per capita as high as Finland and France, they'll have to have a GDP per capita almost as high as ROC. Which is doable, with the right policies, as Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands prove.

As for "Montréal vs la province québécoise" as Hipster Duck was hypothesizing, I don't think that should be a problem. There are many prosperous countries completely dominated by their largest city. Ireland is one example. So is Denmark.

Also, it's not comparable to London vs rest of UK, because only 20% of British people live in London metro area, so if the rest of the UK is not doing well, that's a big problem affecting more than 3/4 of the total population. Montréal metro area hosts more than 1/2 the population of Québec, so more Québecois have a "share" in Montréal than is the case in the UK with respect to London.

Also, Québec City is a vibrant urban center that can counterbalance Montréal in a way that no urban center in the UK can outside of London (with respect to the population size of both countries I mean). This would be even more true if Québec became independent, as Québec City would repatriate many government functions currently hosted in Ottawa, so I can very well imagine a Québec City metro area of more than 1 million people and being more important in Québec than it currently is.

The one that would suffer would be Gatineau, but that cannot be avoided I suppose.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Finland has a GDP per capita slightly higher than Canada, and France almost the same as Canada (and perhaps higher now with the record arrivals of immigrants in Canada last year). Only Japan has a GDP per capita lower than Canada (but with an age structure that is completely different from Canada).

So if they want to have GDP per capita as high as Finland and France, they'll have to have a GDP per capita almost as high as ROC. Which is doable, with the right policies, as Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands prove.

As for "Montréal vs la province québécoise" as Hipster Duck was hypothesizing, I don't think that should be a problem. There are many prosperous countries completely dominated by their largest city. Ireland is one example. So is Denmark.

Also, it's not comparable to London vs rest of UK, because only 20% of British people live in London metro area, so if the rest of the UK is not doing well, that's a big problem affecting more than 3/4 of the total population. Montréal metro area hosts more than 1/2 the population of Québec, so more Québecois have a "share" in Montréal than is the case in the UK with respect to London.

Also, Québec City is a vibrant urban center that can counterbalance Montréal in a way that no urban center in the UK can outside of London (with respect to the population size of both countries I mean). This would be even more true if Québec became independent, as Québec City would repatriate many government functions currently hosted in Ottawa, so I can very well imagine a Québec City metro area of more than 1 million people and being more important in Québec than it currently is.

The one that would suffer would be Gatineau, but that cannot be avoided I suppose.

I also agree that Montreal is unlikely to be in conflict with the rest of Quebec post-independence. I think there will be population exchanges between the Canada-sans-Québec and Québec in the years following independence. More people leaving Montreal for the ROC obviously. Probably in the hundreds of thousands - most of them anglophones and allophones. It's definitely possible that half the anglophone population could leave Quebec in the 5-10 years after independence. People from the ROC moving to Quebec would be overwhelmingly francophone, and many would settle in the Montreal area.

So Montreal would be more francophone, perhaps a bit diminished, but still the showplace metropolis for the new country of Québec.

Yes there would be tensions with the "regions", but those exist everywhere.

I see Toronto and Ontario's dominance of Canada-sans-Québec as something that would be more challenged, especially given the great distances and lack of commonalities and affinities due to that.

Almost everyone in Rouyn-Noranda or Rimouski has a direct "relationship" with Montreal, good or bad. It's not so much the case across the ROC with Toronto given its size and diversity.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

An independent Quebec won't fall to Poland levels of prosperity, let alone Venezuela. It's an advanced economy with well-run institutions and low corruption. It will always be a fairly prosperous place.

On the other hand, I don't see an independent Quebec being more prosperous than the ROC.

It's not just that most of the stuff that Canada can sell to the world lies somewhere else, it's that the way Quebec's economy is distributed is somewhat concerning.

Almost all growth and economic diversification seems to take place in and around Greater Montreal. Ontario isn't exactly the United States, but its smaller cities - Ottawa, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, even Windsor - all have more value-added export jobs and economic diversity than their Quebec equivalents. Even Quebec City is really just a government town.

In an independent Quebec, I see the anymosity between Montreal and the hinterlands actually growing. Speaking about England, I can see a London vs. everyone else dynamic taking root in Quebec more than in the ROC vis-a-vis Toronto.

Greater Montreal represents about 52-54% of the provincial GDP.
The government classifies the administrative regions into 3 categories.

1- Urban regions
-Island of Montreal, Laval, Capitale-Nationale, Outaouais

They make up 42.2% of the population, but their participation in the Quebec economy is 52.4%.


2- Manufacturing regions
-Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Mauricie, Estrie, Chaudière-Appalaches, Lanaudière, Laurentides, Montérégie, Centre-du-Québec

With 51.1% of the Quebec population and 40.0% of the GDP, these regions sometimes constitute an essential labor pool for urban regions given their proximity. The manufacturing sector generally occupies an important place in these regions.


3- Resource regions
-Bas-Saint-Laurent, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Côte-Nord, Nord-du-Québec, Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine

They represent 6.7% of the population and generate 7.6% of Quebec's gross domestic product (GDP). However, they represent 80.2% of Quebec territory.


Ontario and Quebec are the 2 most important manufacturing (Hub) provinces in Canada. Quebec City has over $16.5B in manufacturing sales.

Quebec in 2021 (Manufacturing sector)

-Sales : $183B , 26% of all sales in Canada
-Employment : 431,000 , 28.5% of all manufacturing jobs in Canada
-Establishments : 13,573 , 27% of Canadian total
https://www.stiq.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/STIQ-Barometre-2021-Brochure-anglais-FINAL.pdf

We also have the new battery industry that will develop in Bécancour in the Centre-du-Quebec region.

-Great location, 100 million customers within radius of 1,000km
-World-class deep-water port,
-One the largest industrial Park in Canada, 7,000 hectares
-Access to major road , rail and air networks. (the doubling of A-55 is part of the plan)
https://www.fbbecancour.com/en

Quebec's economy is very diversified, it's normal that its metropolis (Montreal) serves as a catalyst for all the other regions of the province. We are heading towards 10 million people within 10 years, with probably more than 9 million in Southern Quebec alone. Transportation, logistic and productivity will get better with time.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think language is a bigger barrier than you concede. Have you ever tried to learn a new language from the yes-no-toaster level (which I imagine is the level of French of most ROCers) to somewhere where you could easily function in daily tasks, let alone actually accomplish professional work in that language?

Most ROCers actually know a lot more French than they realize. All those years of FSL education in public school does do something. Your average Anglo-Canadian is way more likely to be able to understand basic phrases in French than your average Brit or your average American.

I would never consider myself bilingual and if you made me have a conversation in French with a random Quebecois I'd be pretty useless but whenever you guys write posts in French I'm always surprised at how much I can understand.

[New Brisavoine]

^^WORKING in French is altogether quite another challenge.

[Acajack]

Perennial SSP Canada favourite Jean-François Lisée has taken the article I quoted and highlighted some of the charts:

https://twitter.com/JFLisee/status/1754905015695646823

[New Brisavoine]

^^There was a dreadful article last night in the Financial Times about the crazy housing situation in Anglophone Canada, and how a majority of people now support putting a limit on unbridled immigration. Apparently a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto costs more than 2,000 dollars to rent on average. That's absolutely insane! (for a city which, sorry if this doesn't sound PC, is not particularly exceptional in terms of quality of life/scenery/entertainment on a world scale)

One bigwig in Ottawa with an Asian name was commenting (the polls showing a majority of people now want to stop unlimited immigration): "This is not who we are as Canadians", as if opposing unlimited immigration was shameful or something...

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

^^There was a dreadful article last night in the Financial Times about the crazy housing situation in Anglophone Canada, and how a majority of people now support putting a limit on unbridled immigration. Apparently a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto costs more than 2,000 dollars to rent on average. That's absolutely insane! (for a city which, sorry if this doesn't sound PC, is not particularly exceptional in terms of quality of life/scenery/entertainment on a world scale)

One bigwig in Ottawa with an Asian name was commenting (the polls showing a majority of people now want to stop unlimited immigration): "This is not who we are as Canadians", as if opposing unlimited immigration was shameful or something...

I don't see what the big deal is. This is literally how many people think.

This dogma which is still very much alive, though more contested now that at any point I can recall, is a big reason we haven't been able to address an issue that could be compromising life in this country for future generations. Almost to the point where it might now be too late.

[thewave46]

Quebec was on the pulse of this for its own reasons far in advance. Indeed, had the chattering classes of the rest of the country been more astute, we might have had an adult conversation about immigration before it blew up.

It's why I strongly support Quebec's continued presence in Canada. It drives a contrarian conversation that's desperately needed to counter the instinct of the rest of the country.

Admittedly, I live in a place that will feel the downside of the breakup of the country in a cultural sense moreso.

[harls]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

^^WORKING in French is altogether quite another challenge.

In my experience working at my last job in the federal government in Gatineau - No.

My last boss would never talk to me in English (she was a francophone from Ontario). I didn't care. I could have made a big stink about it but my position was bilingual, and I'd look like a fool asking her to just talk English to me.

Much like crossing the border in British Columbia and demanding the CBSA guy to speak French to me.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by harls

In my experience working at my last job in the federal government in Gatineau - No.

But you live in Québec with a Francophone spouse. It's not exactly the same as some guy from Toronto or Vancouver with very little exposure to the French language who suddenly lands in Québec and must work from day 1 calling French-speaking clients. Good luck with that!

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Apparently a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto costs more than 2,000 dollars to rent on average. That's absolutely insane! (for a city which, sorry if this doesn't sound PC, is not particularly exceptional in terms of quality of life/scenery/entertainment on a world scale)

Actually it's closer to 3,000 Canadian dollars ($2,000ish if you're viewing it in USD terms). Vancouver is even higher. Trudeau's policies of importing masses of warm bodies is indeed insane, especially from a global perspective.

[harls]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

But you live in Québec with a Francophone spouse. It's not exactly the same as some guy from Toronto or Vancouver with very little exposure to the French language who suddenly lands in Québec and must work from day 1 calling French-speaking clients. Good luck with that!

You need to pass language tests to be hired with the federal government (oral, written, reading comprehension). They won't hire you if you can't pass them.

And garsh almighty, my podunk western canadian ass did it.

[kool maudit]

"Frozen Haiti" was always a threat, not an analysis. The English-speaking peoples are not measured in our use of language around conflict. So much so that we stand out. Only the Israelis are less temperate.

An independent Quebec should and would aim for an advanced economy with commensurate lifestyles.

[Acajack]

Quebec intends to renew notwithstanding clause that shields Bill 21 from Charter challenges. Québec solidaire supports this even though they are against Bill 21. They think Quebec should be free to decide such matters.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-n...al&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1707315387

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

"Frozen Haiti" was always a threat, not an analysis. The English-speaking peoples are not measured in our use of language around conflict. So much so that we stand out. Only the Israelis are less temperate.

An independent Quebec should and would aim for an advanced economy with commensurate lifestyles.

You don't think Haiti is also aiming for an advanced economy with commensurate lifestyles?