Quote:
Originally Posted by DKaz
Real estate trends tend to go on a 7 year boom 7 year bust cycle. Kelowna's previous boom started in 2015 and should've ended in 2022 but COVID must've extended things for a bit as we saw more migration into the region. Expect fewer starts. Hopefully we don't see 9+% unemployment in the region again. I don't know what the stats are now but last bust cycle, somewhere between 5 and 10% of the households had at least one person working in Alberta. Even on the low end of the scale, that's a lot of people.
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Anything could happen of course, but I have a feeling Kelowna will do better than in the last downturn. The provincial economy has certainly slowed, but it isn't the total mess that it had been in the past (housing prices/affordability are a total mess, way more than past downturns, but the economy itself overall isn't terrible). And Kelowna is still much cheaper than Vancouver, so it will continue to be a popular intra-migration destination for people from the lower mainland, even moreso since it has many more urban amenities than it did before, which help lower mainlanders feel more settled after leaving the bigger cities. Additionally, Kelowna is always popular with Albertans either as vacation or a permanent move. So while a booming AB economy might be a drain for turning migration negative, it still has positive spinoffs for the Okanagan economically for investment, tourism, and people relocating. AB might have a young population, but it isn't that young, it has a growing baby boomer population like everywhere else. So there's likely going to be immigration from this cohort to Kelowna, since they have the $$, and are looking for a lifestyle more than anything. They've made their money already, or maybe they have a consulting business or something they do from home, so might as well be in the Okanagan instead of anywhere AB. I know this demographic may not be the one locals want to attract, but it does help keeping the economy from nosediving. And like I said, younger migrants from the Lower Mainland still see Kelowna as a much more affordable option, so it isn't all older boomers from AB.
The UBC expansion will also be beneficial economically, and attract more diversity and global connections than ever existed before, which will help the city avoid a downtown like it did when it was still very much a smaller provincial town
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I feel like the parkade doesn't matter as much, as the first two floors. If the first two levels are businesses and public spaces, then it is still nice and friendly to people on the ground level.
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