Statistics Canada Reports II

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by north 42

Not really, we’ve been growing by about 1000k a month for the past year, and it should pick up with the billions being invested in the city with the battery plant and the new international crossing.

Also, the Conference Board of Canada forecasts that Windsor will have the strongest growth of all major Canadian cities in 2024.

https://www.iheartradio.ca/am800/news/co...trongest-growth-of-all-cities-1.20853112

Windsor's outlook is really positive without any doubt (the amount of cumulative new investment happening in Windsor is truly staggering) but it still growing relatively slowly population-wise, at least in comparison to other Ontario CMAs. Even just based on the 2021 census data, it still remains below average in Ontario, being ahead of only Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Chatham, and Hamilton (technically Toronto as well, but its numbers are so much larger that isn't a truly equal comparison).

It won't be this way for long though. A dollar in Windsor still goes much further than it does in a lot of other cities in Ontario, and still allows for a decently comfortable lifestyle for blue collar and lower-wage workers unlike our largest cities.

[zahav]

The circumstances behind the interprovincial migration movements today is very different than historical norms. So many new realities that didn't exist before. As mentioned, previous migration flows had a decent contingent of oil patch migrants, which affected smaller blue colour places disproportionately, but ultimately even larger metro areas lost population to places like Alberta from late 90s to 2014. And oil patch was a way bigger factor then. It is not the draw it once was, the flows now are driven by affordability almost entirely. Which brings me to the 2nd main difference between now and past periods. It used to be a mix of AB booming, and the other provinces doing poorly (ie. the economic differential could be huge between AB and other provinces). But now, it's not that they are that much better than other places economically, especially taking in the last few years, it's nothing like in the heady days of 2008-2014 when AB was so much stronger than others. Now it is affordability that is the push/pull, as opposed to economic performance. And higher population growth in itself strengthens the economy, just by nature of the added people, homes, service industry growth. That is definitely more than narrative now, and not an oil boom. Oil prices certainly did grow from the historic doldrums of the pandemic, but it was less of a factor in the current growth than in booms past. There's arguably a much smaller difference between provincial economic performance than was the case historically (remote working played a big part in this I believe, I'm sure in a couple years more stats will be compiled to show it empirically). Tech is still a question mark in terms of whether the totally decentralized workplace is going to stay. Some tech companies have already clawed parts of it back, I'm sure others haven't as they are afraid of how it will unfold. I wonder just how many people actually moved to another province, while working entirely remotely at their old job. Not sure I've seen stats on this specifically. Would be interesting to see the numbers, since the perception is that a lot of people moved away from their work base, but kept the job and worked remote. Wondering how many people are actually in that category? And even more curious if their workplaces initiated back to office (even partially), would those people move back to the city they left from, or just find other employment (ie. somewhere that would allow full remote work). Returning to places like Vancouver or Toronto could be challenging obviously, since many cashed out to go elsewhere, and who knows if there's enough $$ left to get back into the housing market. It's certainly a situation I wouldn't want to be in, especially not being rich or having a ton of savings.

[Blitz]

Originally Posted by north 42

These numbers are so far off for Windsor, it was 422K two ago, ahead of both Victoria and Oshawa, so probably around 440K now.

He must be using the wrong baseline data combined with that weird convoluted process he used. We obviously didn't go from 422k to 379k in two years.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Wrong thread

[GreaterMontréal]

According to the official gazette of Quebec. from July 1st 2023, Municipalities, arrondissements

2022-2023

Montreal : + 95,156
Quebec City : + 18,416
Longueuil : + 7,887
Sherbrooke : + 6,246
Gatineau : + 5,845
Laval : + 4,260
Brossard : + 3,373
Lévis : + 2,134

City of Montreal : 1,895,211
Island of Montreal : 2,135,000

If we only use data from the largest cities, the GMA was +110k and Quebec City +20k. Gatineau was at 298k, so probably already above 300k as we speak. Montreal (City) will probably end 2024 with a population exceeding 2 million, which would make it the 6th largest city in the USA/Canada. Houston (2,3M) is within reach with the kind of growth that we see in Canada.


Density of central boroughs, middle housing
Downtown Montreal (Ville-Marie) : 117,823 , +14,806 !! , 8,082/km²
Côte-des-neiges-N-D-G : 15,990/km²
Plateau : 13,990/km²
Rosemont : 9,439/km²
Verdun : 8,172/km²
Outremont : 7,051/km²
Ahuntsic-Cartierville : 6,271/km²
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve : 6,107/km²
Sud-Ouest : 5,574/km²
Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension : 6,705/km²

1,135,825 spread over 165km² , 6,885/km² approximative

[Dalreg]

Using city population vs metro population is archaic.

Vancouver is only 675,000 vs 2,500,000. Saying Montreal is the sixth or seventh largest city is nowhere near accurate. Montreal is the 19th largest metro in North America.

[G.S MTL]

Originally Posted by Dalreg

Using city population vs metro population is archaic.

Vancouver is only 675,000 vs 2,500,000. Saying Montreal is the sixth or seventh largest city is nowhere near accurate. Montreal is the 19th largest metro in North America.

19th? Lol just do a little more research! You’ll eventually get there.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by Dalreg

Using city population vs metro population is archaic.

Vancouver is only 675,000 vs 2,500,000. Saying Montreal is the sixth or seventh largest city is nowhere near accurate. Montreal is the 19th largest metro in North America.

It's not archaic as the largest cities tend to be the densest.

New York : 778.18 km2 , 8.8M
Los Angeles : 1,215 km² , 3,89M
Toronto : 630 km2 , 3,02M
Chicago : 606 km2 , 2,7M
*Montreal : 365 km2 , 1,9M

If you want to avoid or reduce sprawl as much as possible you want the largest city to growth as much as possible. The urban population needs to growth without sprawl. It's all about having the best downtown and urban core possible. It reverses the trend and now Montreal is growing faster than the suburbs.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Dalreg

Using city population vs metro population is archaic.

Vancouver is only 675,000 vs 2,500,000. Saying Montreal is the sixth or seventh largest city is nowhere near accurate. Montreal is the 19th largest metro in North America.

Montreal at 4.378 million in 2022 was the 15th largest metro in North America in 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

if it grew by 95K in 2023 then Montreal has certainly passed San Francesco as is now the 14th largest metro in North America.
Montreal would most likely be at 12th if it can keep these growth for 5 more years.

[Zeej]

Wow. The municipality of Montreal has grown by roughly 5% in a single year. Not sustainable but wow.

If Vancouver at roughly 700k added 70k which seems possible if not likely, it will have added 10% in a single year.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Nite

Montreal at 4.378 million in 2022 was the 15th largest metro in North America in 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

if it grew by 95K in 2023 then Montreal has certainly passed San Francesco as is now the 14th largest metro in North America.
Montreal would most likely be at 12th if it can keep these growth for 5 more years.

Oops! I think you forgot Mexico (and Toronto!!!!) exist! Montreal is indeed the 19th largest metro in NA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_metropolitan_areas_by_population

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Blitz

He must be using the wrong baseline data combined with that weird convoluted process he used. We obviously didn't go from 422k to 379k in two years.

Unless you have more reliable date, I use statistics Canada figures. As of July 1,2022, the population of Windsor is estimated at 359,672. With the influx of new Canadians, I estimated the population of metro Windsor at 379K for October 2023.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

Where did you get the 422K figure from?

----

At any rate, Windsor grew by 11,300 people from 2018-22. Compare that with relatively similar sized metro areas in Ontario:

Oshawa: 41,700
Kitchener 54,600
London 41,800
St.Catherines-Niagara: 22,100

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Dalreg

Using city population vs metro population is archaic.

Vancouver is only 675,000 vs 2,500,000. Saying Montreal is the sixth or seventh largest city is nowhere near accurate. Montreal is the 19th largest metro in North America.

The Vancouver CMA is passed the 3,000,000 mark in the fall of 2023.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I take it you were not that great in mathematics, if you consider that convoluted. A grade 8 math student could have applied the formula that I used.

Unless you have more reliable date, I use statistics Canada figures. As of July 1,2022, the population of Windsor is estimated at 359,672. With the influx of new Canadians, I estimated the population of metro Windsor at 379K for October 2023.

Where did you get the 422K figure from?

We went through all this last time you posted the 359,672 number. You are getting the number from "Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2016 boundaries"

But in 2021 the boundaries of Windsor's CMA were different, and the 2021 Statistics Canada census data shows the population of metro Windsor increased by 6% from 2016 to 2021 to 422,630.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Changing City

We went through all this last time you posted the 359,672 number. You are getting the number from "Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2016 boundaries"

But in 2021 the boundaries of Windsor's CMA were different, and the 2021 Statistics Canada census data shows the population of metro Windsor increased by 6% from 2016 to 2021 to 422,630.

Well I guess we will see what the numbers are, when the July 2023 estimates come out in two weeks.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I take it you were not that great in mathematics, if you consider that convoluted. A grade 8 math student could have applied the formula that I used.

Unless you have more reliable date, I use statistics Canada figures. As of July 1,2022, the population of Windsor is estimated at 359,672. With the influx of new Canadians, I estimated the population of metro Windsor at 379K for October 2023.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

Where did you get the 422K figure from?

----

At any rate, Windsor grew by 11,300 people from 2018-22. Compare that with relatively similar sized metro areas in Ontario:

Oshawa: 41,700
Kitchener 54,600
London 41,800
St.Catherines-Niagara: 22,100

Windsor grew by 24K between 2016 and 2021. The past two years the city has probably added another 15K or more.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810000501

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by north 42

Windsor grew by 24K between 2016 and 2021. The past two years the city has probably added another 15K or more.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810000501

I give more weight to the Stats Canada annual estimates. Believe what you wish...

There is no way that Windsor has more people than Oshawa.

[BlackDog204]

Population of Canadian CMA on October 1, 2023:

Toronto: 6,974,900
Montreal: 4,519,000
Vancouver: 2,963,600
Calgary: 1,698,000
Edmonton: 1,598,200
Ottawa-Gatineau: 1,564,400
Winnipeg: 904,200
Quebec: 877,000
Hamilton: 853,300
Kitchener: 647,900
London: 600,500
Halifax: 500,100
St.Catherines-Niagara 469,300
Oshawa: 466,200
Victoria 440,900
Windsor 379,200
Saskatoon: 359,600
Regina: 277,900
Kelowna: 245,600
Barrie: 237,000

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I give more weight to the Stats Canada annual estimates. Believe what you wish...

There is no way that Windsor has more people than Oshawa.

I'm not sure why you'd choose to believe a Statistics Canada annual estimate based on 2016 geography, rather than a Statistics Canada count, based on the census, but I guess your motto of "Believe what you wish..." might explain it.

I don't think anybody has suggested that Windsor has more people than Oshawa.

As you correctly said: "We will see what the numbers are, when the July 2023 estimates come out in two weeks."

[Dalreg]

Originally Posted by G.S MTL

19th? Lol just do a little more research! You’ll eventually get there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_metropolitan_areas_by_population

Research done, don't worry you'll get there some day mate.