Statistics Canada Reports II

[someone123]

Originally Posted by zahav

But since people keep thinking this is personal and not statistics (!), I will post more stats.

Apologies. I didn't mean it's personal or you have it in for NS, but I think the bias is in the water so to speak (and NSians and media can be very negative). For example there's that article you quoted where they talk about people moving back to Toronto for the superior entertainment. But the data you posted shows that there's a small net inflow from Ontario still.

My point with asking about other provinces (I don't know what all of the historical numbers are) was to ask if the NS pattern stands out somehow and it looks like it doesn't. Even in BC, which historically tends to attract migrants, there have been multi-year periods of outmigration.

In a wider context these flows are pretty small and are more than offset by immigration. The tendency to tell stories about small magnitude figures hovering around 0 reminds me of the "have vs. have-not" discussion where the media played up how Ontario was flipping between have and have-not based on whether it got > $0 in equalization.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by someone123

Apologies. I didn't mean it's personal or you have it in for NS, but I think the bias is in the water so to speak (and NSians and media can be very negative). For example there's that article you quoted where they talk about people moving back to Toronto for the superior entertainment. But the data you posted shows that there's a small net inflow from Ontario still.

And, in fact, the number of people migrating away from Nova Scotia to Ontario is essentially unchanged year over year: 1,785 in Q3 of this year vs. 1,667 last Q3. If you compare Q2 and Q3 of each year, you see that fewer people made the move away from NS this year. Same if you go back and include Q1. Overall, 5,131 people in the first three quarters of 2023 moved from NS to Ontario. Go back even more, to pre-pandemic years, and you can see that the numbers aren't much different. In 2015 4,919 people; in 2016, 5,031; in 2019, 4,389. Last year, at the peak of the move-to-NS mania, 5,297 people made the opposite move, more than did this year.

So despite the anecdotal stories of Ontarians moving back down the St. Lawrence, it's not actually manifesting as a trend. The very slight uptick in the numbers over the years probably has more to do with a larger population in NS creating more movement. And last quarter's numbers are not about people moving back to Toronto out of regret; they're about fewer in, not more out.

[someone123]

It would be possible to write very long posts about this but to me even the construct of interprovincial migration seems pretty low resolution. There are so many distinct groups that are a part of that. It does impact provincial finances but that impact is dwarfed these days by immigration.

One phenomenon that used to be common in NS, not sure how strong it is now, is that there were distinct flows between blue collar small town or rural areas and AB vs. the urban flows. Now there's the confounding housing question. There never was much compatibility between say the Cape Breton labour market and Halifax or Halifax and the oil patch.

Another factor I think about is that growth in the future in Canada will depend a lot on how successful different areas are at building housing. It's a mixed bag in NS but Halifax is relatively good for apartment construction and infill potential and in theory has fewer barriers to new construction. It's radically different from the greenbelt/ALR-era GTA or Lower Mainland. And actually Halifax is a good place for a larger metro area due to how it's situated near but not on agricultural land. It's a conspicuously underdeveloped region with stuff like undeveloped lakefront 10 minutes away from the airport. Developing areas like that is a choice (and here in BC the answer is mostly "no"). I get the impression Alberta is quite development friendly.

[Centerprovince]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Actually, the province of Manitoba gained roughly 42,000 people during that time frame. The growth of Winnipeg CMA would have probably accounted for 62% of that number.

Yes, I must’ve screwed up, and went too far back when calculating. If Winnipeg’s growth remains proportionally consistent with Manitoba’s growth, that would put Winnipeg at around 897,500 as of July 1st, 2023.

[BlackDog204]

[MonctonRad]

Where did you get these estimates?

You didn't include all CMAs, only the top 20.

Moncton is probably about 180,000.

[BlackDog204]

n/m

[north 42]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Population of Canadian CMA on October 1, 2023:

Toronto: 6,974,900
Montreal: 4,519,000
Vancouver: 2,963,600
Calgary: 1,698,000
Edmonton: 1,598,200
Ottawa-Gatineau: 1,564,400
Winnipeg: 904,200
Quebec: 877,000
Hamilton: 853,300
Kitchener: 647,900
London: 600,500
Halifax: 500,100
St.Catherines-Niagara 469,300
Oshawa: 466,200
Victoria 440,900
Windsor 379,200
Saskatoon: 359,600
Regina: 277,900
Kelowna: 245,600
Barrie: 237,000


Blue: population is likely greater than what is posted
Red: population is likely less than what is posted

I took the estimates from July 2022, and compared them with the provincial populations of July 2022. Then I took the percentage of people in a given CMA (i.e Winnipeg), and compared it with the provincal estimates of October 1, 2023.

However, this is not fool-proof. Many CMA's have grown faster than the Canadian average (i.e Toronto, Calgary, Halifax), which I have highlighted in blue, compared to the SMA's who have grown slower than the Caandian average (Windsor, St,Catherines-Niagars, Montreal,etc).

These numbers are so far off for Windsor, it was 422K two ago, ahead of both Victoria and Oshawa, so probably around 440K now.

[someone123]

There's also the question of whether the numbers use 2016 or 2021 boundaries.

[WarrenC12]

Vancouver already in the 3M club then?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

For what CMA?

For all CMAs, although only some had boundary changes between periods. I believe the 2023 estimates will use 2021 boundaries while 2022 was still on 2016.

I don't know what changes happened for all CMAs but the 2021 expansion for Halifax added around 26,000 people. The local media in Halifax estimated 26,000 for year-on-year population growth running up to July 1, 2023 (I think they were just reporting unpublished Statistics Canada data). That would put the July 1 population at 530,000 or so, and Oct 1 in the 535,000-540,000 range.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by someone123

For all CMAs, although only some had boundary changes between periods. I believe the 2023 estimates will use 2021 boundaries while 2022 was still on 2016.

I don't know what changes happened for all CMAs but the 2021 expansion for Halifax added around 26,000 people. The local media in Halifax estimated 26,000 for year-on-year population growth running up to July 1, 2023 (I think they were just reporting unpublished Statistics Canada data). That would put the July 1 population at 530,000 or so, and Oct 1 in the 535,000-540,000 range.

It’s pretty exciting to see Halifax cross the half million mark so quickly. It always seems and looked so much larger than it was, so nice to see growing at such a healthy rate.

I wonder how many more years before the next round of cities hits that mark, like Victoria, Windsor, Niagara Region and Oshawa? Shouldn’t be too long with the impressive growth rates that are currently happening.

[rdaner]

GTA plus Oshawa and Hamilton is 8,294,400 in 2023 compared to 7,402,720 in 2021.
Chicago SMA in 2022 is estimated at 9,274,140.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Looking forward to the demographic estimates for census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations. Should be out mid January.

[Wigs]

Good to know. I have a feeling most CMAs will be higher than people realize, as long as Stats Can is finally using a revised, accurate formula

[svlt]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Vancouver already in the 3M club then?

I can see it being just shy this estimate but easily the following year and certainly well above by the 2026 census.

The lower mainland regional population (including Abbotsford and Chilliwack) have long exceeded 3 million for years now, around 3.2 million recently.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by someone123

For all CMAs, although only some had boundary changes between periods. I believe the 2023 estimates will use 2021 boundaries while 2022 was still on 2016.

I don't know what changes happened for all CMAs but the 2021 expansion for Halifax added around 26,000 people. The local media in Halifax estimated 26,000 for year-on-year population growth running up to July 1, 2023 (I think they were just reporting unpublished Statistics Canada data). That would put the July 1 population at 530,000 or so, and Oct 1 in the 535,000-540,000 range.

These figures are estimates. They are not precise.

In July 2022, the population of Halifax was estimated at 480,582. So if your figures are correct, the Halifax CMA would be roughly 506,500 for July 1, 2023. Unless the boundaries changed for 2023, as you seem to imply.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by north 42

These numbers are so far off for Windsor, it was 422K two ago, ahead of both Victoria and Oshawa, so probably around 440K now.

Why are you making up population numbers for Windsor?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Where did you get these estimates?

You didn't include all CMAs, only the top 20.

Moncton is probably about 180,000.

MonctonRad has volunteered to calculate the CMA's that are ranked #21-30. Thanks, man!

[north 42]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I doubt it.

Windsor is one of the slowest growing metro areas in Ontario.

Not really, we’ve been growing by about 1000k a month for the past year, and it should pick up with the billions being invested in the city with the battery plant and the new international crossing.

Also, the Conference Board of Canada forecasts that Windsor will have the strongest growth of all major Canadian cities in 2024.

https://www.iheartradio.ca/am800/news/co...trongest-growth-of-all-cities-1.20853112