[Halifax] Skye Halifax (1565 Granville) | 66 m | 2 x 21 fl | U/C

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Though my hope, and my suspicion, is that we've turned some kind of corner in terms of perception and the scale of the local economy, and given that and the fact that housing here is still cheaper than the highest-cost cities, we'll continue for at least the near term to see overall positive inflows most quarters, if not the huge numbers of the past three years.)

I think you are right, though I hope you are not.

Population growth is cool and all but this would also make it harder for someone like me to move back (and would also increase the number of "people like me").

(Obviously that changes a bit if the local job market improves dramatically in tandem with the population growth - not just in terms of the number of jobs but the level of pay as well.)

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I'm honestly doubtful that provincial governments have a lot of short-term control over interprovincial migration flows. People move around based on lifestyle, employment, and family and friends. And, in a country like Canada, with so many high-cost cities, they moved based on housing expenses and the overall cost of living. Nova Scotia became a destination in the past decade and especially the past few years because it had lower housing costs than most of the country, paired with a decent labour market and a desirable location. If cost-of-living refugees from large cities were looking at Nova Scotia/Halifax and comparing it to, say, Sudbury or Regina or most other low-cost options, the east coast was a clear winner for most people. That's why people have been pouring in, not because the provincial government advertised to them.

Interprovincial growth looks like it may now be slipping somewhat, which reinforces that idea, given that housing here is less affordable than it was. Though my hope, and my suspicion, is that we've turned some kind of corner in terms of perception and the scale of the local economy, and given that and the fact that housing here is still cheaper than the highest-cost cities, we'll continue for at least the near term to see overall positive inflows most quarters, if not the huge numbers of the past three years.)

Immigration is obviously a different story. I think the big burst of international newcomers has been overall extremely positive for the city, thouugh the explosion of non-permanent residents is a problem nationwide, straining our infrastructure while at the same time being arguably exploitative of many of the newcomers themselves. It's gotten a little out of hand.

Yeah I'm not sure why people keep bringing up immigration when it comes to discussions on local housing policy when municipalities, and to a great extent provinces, have no control over that. It isn't something anyone is ignoring or forgetting, it just isn't relevant to focus on.

[Jreeb]

Originally Posted by Hali87

I think you are right, though I hope you are not.

Population growth is cool and all but this would also make it harder for someone like me to move back (and would also increase the number of "people like me").

(Obviously that changes a bit if the local job market improves dramatically in tandem with the population growth - not just in terms of the number of jobs but the level of pay as well.)

I think this is a small factor that doesn't get discussed when talking about housing in Halifax. While rent prices have skyrocketed in recent years, entry level salaries in Halifax have not increased at the same pace. Theoretically, it would make sense if Halifax rent prices begin to approach levels seen in larger markets such as Toronto, then salaries should also see an increase. I know there will be some exceptions as we have had strong growth in our tech sector here.

For instance, I'm a young professional that makes a decent enough entry level salary however my same position in Toronto makes $25,000 more (I am not complaining just creating an example). This made sense two years ago since the net income probably leveled out due to the higher costs of living in Toronto. Nowadays, if you were to be trying to move apartments to a worse building in Halifax, you would be paying more rent and netting less at the end of the year.

Obviously, it is much more difficult to convince corporations to pay employees more if they have been able to achieve a certain salary base for years. However, regarding net income, I think you can make more in larger markets with less tax while still paying higher rent. I may be wrong as the larger markets may be experiencing the same issue as Halifax but this is another factor I always consider when thinking about moving. My point is, if Halifax wants to retain strong talent and continue to become a strong tech/commerce city, salaries will have to increase to help combat the rent prices.

Halifax will always have its charm which is what has kept me from already making the move and it is hard to put a dollar amount on that charm but it feels like it has been depreciating in recent years.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Yeah I'm not sure why people keep bringing up immigration when it comes to discussions on local housing policy when municipalities, and to a great extent provinces, have no control over that. It isn't something anyone is ignoring or forgetting, it just isn't relevant to focus on.

It is the cause of the housing problem. It may not be a problem caused by lower levels of govt but they are left to clean up the mess made by the Feds. Only the Feds can turn off the taps, unless the provinces decide to impose some sort of punitive income tax on new arrivals.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Hali87

I think you are right, though I hope you are not.

Population growth is cool and all but this would also make it harder for someone like me to move back (and would also increase the number of "people like me").

(Obviously that changes a bit if the local job market improves dramatically in tandem with the population growth - not just in terms of the number of jobs but the level of pay as well.)

There are some reasons for optimism. I don't think it's going to get cheap here again, but if population growth slows a little, that could provide some chance to catch up. Housing starts in the past year have been strong, on track for a local record and leading the country in year-over-year increases. And while wages provincially still lag national averages, wage growth in NS in 2022 was among the highest in the country, and so far in 2023 it's led the country. Nothing that would be game-changing in the short term, but positive signs.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Jreeb

I think this is a small factor that doesn't get discussed when talking about housing in Halifax. While rent prices have skyrocketed in recent years, entry level salaries in Halifax have not increased at the same pace. Theoretically, it would make sense if Halifax rent prices begin to approach levels seen in larger markets such as Toronto, then salaries should also see an increase. I know there will be some exceptions as we have had strong growth in our tech sector here.

For instance, I'm a young professional that makes a decent enough entry level salary however my same position in Toronto makes $25,000 more (I am not complaining just creating an example). This made sense two years ago since the net income probably leveled out due to the higher costs of living in Toronto. Nowadays, if you were to be trying to move apartments to a worse building in Halifax, you would be paying more rent and netting less at the end of the year.

That's definitely true to a degree, but many if not most of the jobs that have big income premiums l in Toronto are concentrated in a relatively small number of fields (tech and finance among them). By some measures in the last census, median earnings are actually slightly higher in Halifax: $36,800 after tax in 2020 vs. $36,400 in the Toronto CMA. If you look at averages, that shows a bigger difference: average in Halifax is $52,900; average in Toronto is $59,250. But those are skewed by outliers, as the median indicates. For the majority of the population, I'd guess that the wage premium in Toronto is much more modest.

All that said, yeah, it's definitely true that overall earning potential is somewhat higher in Toronto--but sometimes these "I could make twice as much if I moved" observations are relevant to a narrow slice of employees/industries.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

For the majority of the population, I'd guess that the wage premium in Toronto is much more modest.

And there's still a rent and purchase price gap between Toronto and Halifax so to people escaping Toronto, Halifax will seem cheap. Rents haven't converged between the cities, they've been going up around the country. Around here they're hitting absurd levels. A 2BR is around $4k a month or so. Some parts of Canada have escaped this but I'm not sure it'll be for long. In BC, even rural areas are expensive.

It's true that municipalities and provinces don't control immigration levels but the feds are accountable to all Canadians and they shouldn't be encouraging levels that cause major issues. And there's no way the housing supply can be nimble enough to match arbitrary changes to work and study permits. We had sane immigration flows just a couple years ago, and most of the difference today seems to come down to exploitative degree mills and work permits for McJobs.

[alps]

Sorry about your situation Hali87. I am in a similar boat and have become very bitter about it all. Like Keith, I feel that the origin of the housing crisis is pretty straightforward and can't figure out why there isn't more discussion of immigration rates. Surely we aren't doing immigrants (and international students) any favours by drawing them here with Canada's positive reputation only for them to have to deal with an absolutely brutal housing market. Many young people are emigrating from Hong Kong and at this point I would caution friends against coming to Canada.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by alps

Like Keith, I feel that the origin of the housing crisis is pretty straightforward and can't figure out why there isn't more discussion of immigration rates.

Because while some people are losing out because of it, there's another group that is gaining and they generally have more influence. Furthermore Canada's economy has broadly been doing poorly for years now (barely above a 2011 baseline in per capita terms) and immigration is an easy fix for a lot of metrics while the government struggles to drive productivity while hurting it in some ways for other priorities. A lot of Canadians have no mortgage and own one or more properties and then another large group borrowed a lot to buy and so they also benefit from high asset prices and rents. Talking to people I know I'd say the level of understanding across these groups is pretty low. I also know a lot of young people who are just not engaged and assume they will have a low standard of living in the future no matter what.

Despite their best intentions it's possible there still could be some sort of real estate crash or disruption to immigration, but a real economic crash would bring other kinds of pain. A lot of people might go from jobs and unaffordable housing to cheap housing and no job.

[Haliguy]

Interprovincial population growth has stalled:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-population-migration-patterns-1.7067869

[Colin May]

Read this :
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/n...d-for-geert-wilders-netherlands-election
and you will understand why the Dutch election resulted in a massive shift. I have spoken to younger people and they are not voting for Trudeau. They raise the same issues as young people elsewhere in N America and Europe.
Examples : I don't know if I will ever own a home.
I don't know if I will be able to afford having children.
Why doe Trudeau keep bringing in more immigrants when there is no place to live.
Everything is so expensive.
Back in 1964/5 I was in Rotterdam almost every week or 10 days. The rebuilt city centre was pedestrian friendly and now part of it is a no-go area. The Dutch have been liberal minded and open to outsiders for centuries. They relied on their only asset - the space between their ears and explored and traded around the world. They would be the last people who I would label as 'far right' or 'racist'.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Hali87

But that kind of falls apart when a basically unlimited number of people who can afford X can just move to Halifax. And that seems to be a driving factor now. So the saturation point isn't so much "when we run out of people in Halifax who can pay X", it's that PLUS "when we run out of people who want to (or can be convinced to) move to Halifax who can afford to pay X". And given that it is an increasingly nice city, I think we are a long way off from reaching that second part.

It's not really unlimited within Canada normally though. The natural increases and interprovincial flows are small and can be kept up with through housing construction. It's the nonpermanent resident rate that is out of proportion with housing. It's hard to imagine housing supply matching that influx and it's hard to imagine the influx continuing if the housing situation keeps deteriorating or even just doesn't improve and more and more voters suffer as a result.

I think what may have changed is you'll be less likely to see Halifax below the average growth rate in Canada, because it's not a below average destination and word seems to have gotten out sufficiently. It's true that there was one quarter without growth from interprovincial migration but there's a lot of noise in that data and that flow may be "starved" due to housing issues caused by the other bigger flow.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's not really unlimited within Canada normally though. The natural increases and interprovincial flows are small and can be kept up with through housing construction. It's the nonpermanent resident rate that is out of proportion with housing. It's hard to imagine housing supply matching that influx and it's hard to imagine the influx continuing if the housing situation keeps deteriorating or even just doesn't improve and more and more voters suffer as a result.

I think what may have changed is you'll be less likely to see Halifax below the average growth rate in Canada, because it's not a below average destination and word seems to have gotten out sufficiently. It's true that there was one quarter without growth from interprovincial migration but there's a lot of noise in that data and that flow may be "starved" due to housing issues caused by the other bigger flow.

Anecdotally, I'm often surprised at the large percentage of people I meet who aren't from here originally. In fact it seems less likely to meet somebody who grew up here these days than not.

I used to joke a few years back "don't come here, you won't like it", but unfortunately it looks like our little secret is out there, and people are looking at Halifax as a nice place to live (rather than a backwater little town full of ignorant people). As much as growth is good for the economy, blah blah blah, I've noticed a distinct change that comes along with growth, in that it seems more hectic and less personable than it used to be. So for some the growth is a plus, but for me... not so much. But nothing stays static, so time marches on. Canada is changing, and has changed, quickly.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Anecdotally, I'm often surprised at the large percentage of people I meet who aren't from here originally. In fact it seems less likely to meet somebody who grew up here these days than not.

Nearly every single friend of mine locally is from somewhere else--Ontario, Manitoba, BC, New Brunswick, etc. They all like it. I sometimes think I'm in a bit of a bubble as a result, filtering the city and province mostly via the eyes of relative newcomers, including myself. Sometimes we poke fun at its foibles, but that's with affection, and generally everyone really likes living here. Which is why I'm sometimes taken aback when some sixth-generation Scotian starts spouting all kinds of reasons about why it's such a terrible place and all these Ontarians, etc., are going to regret coming here.

Of course this is not everyone, or even most people. But I've noticed the people who seem to speak this way the most are A: a small fraction of newcomers who seem embittered they're not in some other, more preferred location, and leave relatively quickly, and B: bred-in-the-bone bluenosers who have never been anywhere else but are really convinced everywhere else must be better, thanks to a lot of dated notions and received wisdom.

[teddifax]

I am 66 years old and have lived here all my life and I love it here! I dislike the naysayers though. I love the way Halifax is evolving, I just wish there weren't so many limitations. I have mentioned here before my dislike for the viewplanes bylaw an how restricting it is. Halifax needs more housing. I wish the powers that be would do something. The NS Government may have to step in even more if Halifax can't do it.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Not sure if I'm being perceived as a naysayer or whatever, but to clarify, I love living here, and I always have. I've also enjoyed watching the city evolve over the years from the small town feel of 'old Dartmouth' to what HRM has become today. The developments are exciting to watch, especially the ones that actually involve saving and repurposing heritage structures.

It's a personal preference, but I've always preferred a small/medium city feel, which I've felt that Halifax has retained. Most of the amenities of a large city, but not so big and so busy such that you spend a lot of your time sitting in traffic or surrounded by huge crowds of people. Traveling to large cities within Canada and other countries has only cemented this feeling. While I love checking out other places and experiencing what they have to offer, I've always enjoyed returning home. On my many many business trips to Toronto, i used to joke that I felt like kissing the ground when I stepped off the plane at YHZ.

My comments above are in reaction to the large growth numbers over the past few years where things have changed so quickly that it feels (to me) that Halifax is losing a bit of its identity. The fact that it used to be an affordable city with lots of living options that are mostly gone is surely a huge part of it. Just my opinion of course, and I'm sure that each and every person has a unique perception of it. It is still home to me regardless, even though some of the familiarity and feel has gone.

I still get annoyed when people from other areas put it down, though.

Anyhow... happy holidays to all...

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Which is why I'm sometimes taken aback when some sixth-generation Scotian starts spouting all kinds of reasons about why it's such a terrible place and all these Ontarians, etc., are going to regret coming here.

My family and friends there are mixed, ranging from people who have roots going back centuries to people who immigrated there. I have found the NS natives tend to be more down on things there and often have unrealistic ideas of what other areas are like. This goes along with the negative stereotypes of the region from outside, although they are fading a lot (they used to be very intense in the 90's, with people literally thinking that most NSians were unemployed fishermen and the Peggy's Cove fishing shacks were typical housing; I'd guess that if you polled Canadians, a significant number would not object to labelling the Peggy's Cove shack view "Halifax'). Much of my info these days is really just memories from the 2000's or older people's opinions so I may be more and more out of touch.

When I was a kid, relatives strongly insinuated I'd struggle economically if I stayed in NS and to be successful basically you had to move away. Most of my friends ended up staying and they're all quite successful in Halifax. They're radically better off than the people I know in Vancouver and I've seen more young people leave this city than Halifax. It's changing now I'm sure since the ~2010 younger cohort could mostly buy houses in Halifax but not in Vancouver, and now both cities are increasingly out of reach.

My partner's from Alberta and also always had a more nuanced view than "everyone in Alberta gets jobs instantly and makes tons of money". It's weird sometimes in that I have to decide how much to try to push back gently against some of these overly rosy stereotypes of other places. To take another example our weather here is milder sure but not really that amazing (right now it's very dark outside and went down to -2 or so last night so people will be salting and so on), but I know people in NS who think it's like Hawaii or something.

IMO in the media and Canada section comments I see a lot of ingrained negative stuff, like the idea that Nova Scotia is a place that is more rural and boring than others, so if a net 16 people leave there one quarter it must be that all the Ontarians are finally sick of trying to make a go of it in the rural hinterland, whereas people leaving BC all want to stay but can't afford it. In reality I don't think there's that much difference in lifestyle for most people who are not Bay Street CEOs or out at Michelin star restaurants constantly and partying it up or whatever we are supposed to imagine.

[ILoveHalifax]

I am originally from Halifax, raised in Toronto, went to university in Halifax, have had business in Halifax, lived in Vancouver twice, disappointed, lived in South and Central Florida, the point is I sell relocation (moving) - the last couple of years we have a premium on moves to the Maritimes as there is no back haul - used to be those moving to Halifax were people retiring or to be with family BUT now it is people with no attachment but just want to live there - I think Halifax is the NICEST small city in North America, except for the fact I enjoy hot Florida weather, it would be my choice

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by alps

I am in a similar boat and have become very bitter about it all.

Sorry to hear about your situation as well

Like Keith, I feel that the origin of the housing crisis is pretty straightforward and can't figure out why there isn't more discussion of immigration rates.

The housing crisis is mostly a crisis for people who don’t own property. For those who do own property, it is not so much a crisis as it is a bull market (especially if they own more property than needed to meet their own personal housing needs, and/or are willing to move). Any changes that result in lower housing costs tend to be bad for these people on paper.

Consider how many MPs or senators fall into that first camp. Or BoC execs. Etc. Probably close to 0.

[worldlyhaligonian]

Originally Posted by Hali87

Sorry to hear about your situation as well



The housing crisis is mostly a crisis for people who don’t own property. For those who do own property, it is not so much a crisis as it is a bull market (especially if they own more property than needed to meet their own personal housing needs, and/or are willing to move). Any changes that result in lower housing costs tend to be bad for these people on paper.

Consider how many MPs or senators fall into that first camp. Or BoC execs. Etc. Probably close to 0.

Are you able to put together some savings for a down payment over time? At today's rates, it is still not that difficult to buy a condo in most markets.

The big dust up is over the single family houses... which is insane... but the best way to avoid the wild rents is to get into something smaller. I know it is an ego hit for many, but it is the way to go to have control.