Statistics Canada Reports II

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wigs

That's great for Manitoba! Both Man&Sask have plenty of room to grow. Winnipeg should be ever closer to 900k

The Winnipeg CMA technically passed the 900,000 mark sometime in July.

[BlackDog204]

B.C. sees record stretch of people moving out-of-province — and many are headed to Alberta

More than 12,800 B.C. residents have moved elsewhere in Canada since July 2022


B.C. has recorded its largest period of interprovincial migration losses in 20 years, with more than 12,800 people moving elsewhere in Canada since July 2022, according to Statistics Canada. It's the first time in a decade B.C. has seen 15 months in a row of more people moving out-of-province than it gains — and most are moving to Alberta in the exodus, StatsCan said Tuesday.

From July to September 2023, B.C. lost net 4,634 people to other provinces, its second-greatest quarterly dip since 2004. That single quarter of losses accounts for nearly as many people as the 4,700 gone in B.C.'s last five-quarter stretch of losses ending in 2013.

However B.C. also set a record for migration last quarter, and has added 151,437 people to its 5.6 million population so far in 2023, largely international immigrants who far outnumber interprovincial and natural losses, or deaths outpacing births. In all, B.C.'s population has risen approximately 4.2 per cent in the last year.

B.C.'s interprovincial performance last quarter puts it second only to Ontario — nearly triple B.C.'s population — which lost 5,952 people during the same period, according to data from StatsCan. And it appears B.C.'s interprovincial losses have been its western neighbour's gains: Alberta was the only province whose population increased significantly from inter-provincial moves last quarter, adding 17,094 people to its 4.7 million residents.

Alberta has now recorded gains of more than 10,000 people for five quarters in a row. "Most of Alberta's population gains through inter-provincial migration were due to its exchanges with Ontario and British Columbia," StatsCan said in a release. Alberta's government said Tuesday it had ended the "Alberta is Calling" advertisements it began in 2022, boasting "bigger paycheques" and "smaller rent cheques" to convince Canadians to make the move.

[Drybrain]

Nova Scotia also saw negative interprovincial migration, for the first time in eight years (32 quarters, I think). It was only a tiny net loss, 16 people, but still a reversal of the longstanding trend. I doubt we're headed back to the bad old days of outmigration, but I do suspect that the deterioration of affordability has made the province somewhat less attractive--i.e., people are less likely to uproot for a smaller affordability advantage. The only provinces with positive interprovincial growth last quarter were New Brunswick (small increase) and Alberta (huge increase).

I do wonder if Alberta's huge run-up in growth will swamp its housing and rental markets over the next couple of years, as happened in Halifax. It's a much bigger market, but the migration numbers are also correspondingly larger. There already seems to be evidence of that in the most recent home price data. Benchmark prices in Calgary are trending higher--up ten percent since the beginning of the year--whereas almost everywhere else they're trending down.

If Nova Scotia was the big affordability destination from 2020-23, and now Alberta has the title, maybe in a couple of years it will pass elsewhere. Manitoba? New Brunswick?

[giallo]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

B.C. sees record stretch of people moving out-of-province — and many are headed to Alberta

More than 12,800 B.C. residents have moved elsewhere in Canada since July 2022


B.C. has recorded its largest period of interprovincial migration losses in 20 years, with more than 12,800 people moving elsewhere in Canada since July 2022, according to Statistics Canada. It's the first time in a decade B.C. has seen 15 months in a row of more people moving out-of-province than it gains — and most are moving to Alberta in the exodus, StatsCan said Tuesday.

From July to September 2023, B.C. lost net 4,634 people to other provinces, its second-greatest quarterly dip since 2004. That single quarter of losses accounts for nearly as many people as the 4,700 gone in B.C.'s last five-quarter stretch of losses ending in 2013.

However B.C. also set a record for migration last quarter, and has added 151,437 people to its 5.6 million population so far in 2023, largely international immigrants who far outnumber interprovincial and natural losses, or deaths outpacing births. In all, B.C.'s population has risen approximately 4.2 per cent in the last year.

B.C.'s interprovincial performance last quarter puts it second only to Ontario — nearly triple B.C.'s population — which lost 5,952 people during the same period, according to data from StatsCan. And it appears B.C.'s interprovincial losses have been its western neighbour's gains: Alberta was the only province whose population increased significantly from inter-provincial moves last quarter, adding 17,094 people to its 4.7 million residents.

Alberta has now recorded gains of more than 10,000 people for five quarters in a row. "Most of Alberta's population gains through inter-provincial migration were due to its exchanges with Ontario and British Columbia," StatsCan said in a release. Alberta's government said Tuesday it had ended the "Alberta is Calling" advertisements it began in 2022, boasting "bigger paycheques" and "smaller rent cheques" to convince Canadians to make the move.

$3000 per month for a tiny 1BR apartment will do that. I expect interprovincial migration to only get worse in 2024.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

BC and Alberta are growing almost the same in absolute, the only difference is that Alberta is gaining more from interprovincial migration than BC.

Q3 YOY
Alberta : +75k
BC : -13k
Quebec : -7k
Ontario : -50k

pretty impressed by Quebec's performance on that front.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...023&referencePeriods=20220701%2C20230701

I'm not too surprised that Quebec's numbers would be different from Ont or BC. Language factors in as it's much easier for people in BC or Ontario to move to a place like Alberta, where 99.9% of the jobs are English speaking jobs. The other factor is house prices and as far as house prices, people from Ont and BC have the most to gain.

Overall though Que hitting 9 Million is a nice milestone.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by giallo

$3000 per month for a tiny 1BR apartment will do that. I expect interprovincial migration to only get worse in 2024.

Calgary is starting to get really bad in terms of costs of living. Edmonton is just around the corner.

I have every reason to believe that by the end of the decade, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can see big inter-provincial migration gains.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The Winnipeg CMA technically passed the 900,000 mark sometime in July.

Is there a link to that stat? I'm not disagreeing, but last time I saw numbers for Winnipeg was in January, showing 871,778.
I'm wondering if the numbers were adjusted or something?

From Jan
Toronto 6,685,621 (6,547,381) +138,240
Vancouver 2,842,730 (2,764,932) +77,798
Calgary 1,608,342 (1,558,588) +49,754
Montréal 4,378,796 (4,340,642) +38,154
Edmonton 1,516,719 ( 1,480,159) +36,560
Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,474,077) +24,553
Kitchener 622,497 (599,816) +22,681
Winnipeg 871,778 (858,848) +12,930
Québec 848,776 (836,615) +12,161
Hamilton 821,839 (811,396) +10,443

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Calgary is starting to get really bad in terms of costs of living. Edmonton is just around the corner.

I have every reason to believe that by the end of the decade, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can see big inter-provincial migration gains.

Yup, I think 2024 will see similar if not higher rates of housing price increases in Alberta especially with potential interest rate decreases beginning in the spring.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

If Nova Scotia was the big affordability destination from 2020-23, and now Alberta has the title, maybe in a couple of years it will pass elsewhere. Manitoba? New Brunswick?

To put things into perspective, by value, the real estate market is about 70% Toronto and Vancouver. There's very little "depth" to other markets in comparison; similar cash injections will spike them very quickly.

This may be a can of worms but there's also the perceived value of the different places. There might be some places people just don't want to live in as much that end up being cheaper. Southern BC has comparatively high living costs and so-so wages because people tend to want to live here and will put up with worse conditions (they don't just bid up housing, they also bid down wages), while people on average need to be paid more to locate to Yellowknife. It's hard to tell how much of the price gap is perceived value and how much is a sort of discovery lag. NS really was "undiscovered" at one point (circa 2019) and I would say some parts of small town NS probably still are while Halifax is less so now. NS had a strange out of step reputation that seemed to be about 30% 1992 Newfoundland outport; that stuff adds "potential energy" to be released when people start to find out what a place is really like, if they do.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Calgary is starting to get really bad in terms of costs of living. Edmonton is just around the corner.

I have every reason to believe that by the end of the decade, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can see big inter-provincial migration gains.

I hadn't seen the numbers from January. Thanks for posting them.

Vancouver will be well over 2.9 million now. Possibly closer to 3 million given how fast the population has grown nationally in 2023. Fraser Valley region would be around 3.3 million if that's the case.

The population increase is palpable in the Lower Mainland, even compared to two years ago. It's busier in every corner of the region.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by giallo

$3000 per month for a tiny 1BR apartment will do that. I expect interprovincial migration to only get worse in 2024.

Yep, anyone working person trying to make a life in Vancouver is squeezed at the bottom by all the TFW and students looking for rentals and at the top by people like this woman, whose sad tale of privileged woe I outlined in the other thread. It is amazing Canadians have put up with it meekly for so long but that seems to be changing.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by giallo

$3000 per month for a tiny 1BR apartment will do that. I expect interprovincial migration to only get worse in 2024.

We think southern Ontario outside of the GTA has become increasingly unaffordable.

Vancouver/lower mainland is on another level

[someone123]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It is amazing Canadians have put up with it meekly for so long but that seems to be changing.

This is a small country and it doesn't have that many options to begin with. It's not like there are a bunch of major metro areas you can move to if you're priced out of Vancouver and Toronto. Montreal has language and separatism considerations and if it didn't its real estate market already would have exploded.

Canada really should aim to broadly develop all regions and keep them accessible to everybody. Aside from the real estate disaster Canada struggled with corporate growth and geographical diversity in the locations of the major companies (which tend to be the same old ones decade after decade). Even resource development I would say isn't doing great and the federal government is dreaming up ways to kneecap those industries. The "strategy" seems to be for Canada to operate like a Western European country (such as Belgium) but without the EU membership.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Is there a link to that stat? I'm not disagreeing, but last time I saw numbers for Winnipeg was in January, showing 871,778.
I'm wondering if the numbers were adjusted or something?

From Jan
Toronto 6,685,621 (6,547,381) +138,240
Vancouver 2,842,730 (2,764,932) +77,798
Calgary 1,608,342 (1,558,588) +49,754
Montréal 4,378,796 (4,340,642) +38,154
Edmonton 1,516,719 ( 1,480,159) +36,560
Ottawa 1,498,610 (1,474,077) +24,553
Kitchener 622,497 (599,816) +22,681
Winnipeg 871,778 (858,848) +12,930
Québec 848,776 (836,615) +12,161
Hamilton 821,839 (811,396) +10,443

Hadn't realized that the GTA had already blew well past the 7 million mark a while ago (this would put it around ~7.3 million now); meanwhile the GTHA is nipping at 8 million.

[KnoxfordGuy]

NB had a net gain of interprovincial migration of 21. 21 people. 21.

Quote from Stat Can: All provinces and territories recorded losses in their interprovincial migration exchanges in the third quarter of 2023 except for Alberta...[and]...New Brunswick (+21), with a very small gain.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

NB had a net gain of interprovincial migration of 21. 21 people. 21.

One aspect that's not talked about as much is how small these interprovincial flows tend to be. Another is the sampling methodology and the error bars. The correct interpretation for NB is that the flows were balanced.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by someone123

The "strategy" seems to be for Canada to operate like a Western European country (such as Belgium) but without the EU membership.

A lot of this is the fault of corporate Canada. Some of this is the fault of Canadian government. But quite a bit of it is just the sad reality of the world we find ourselves in.

Since 2008, I feel like there has really been no winner in economic productivity in the West outside of Big Tech, which also employs far fewer people than industries that captured that much of the economy did in the past.

The only countries in the world that really play in the Big Tech space are the US and China. Europe's biggest tech giant is SAP, a maker of janky enterprise software. I sometimes think Canada is behind in this space, but compared to our non-US peers, maybe we're not.

When it comes to value-added manufacturing, the Chinese basically clean everyone's clock. When it comes to almost every manufactured product, they're either cheaper, faster, better or sometimes all three. The depth of their supply chains in critical industries is basically unparalleled. We can whine about how much of our IP they stole, and about how much protectionism their own central government plays, but we're closing the barn door twenty years after the horse ran away. Our best solution at this point is to wall ourselves off as the West and trade our [often inferior, expensive, uncompetitive] products amongst ourselves, pretending they're luxury, while the Chinese grab the emerging markets. Sadly, given the increasing economic nationalism of the United States under Biden, I don't even think we can do that.

[Bobert]

At this rate are we going to hit 41M in late March? Bonkers considering we just passed 40M

[Innsertnamehere]

Canada's tech space operates as a secondary hub for US-based tech giants - it's more of an in between. Toronto has a massive amount of tech employment compared to even most American cities, excepting the Bay area of course.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

A lot of this is the fault of corporate Canada. Some of this is the fault of Canadian government. But quite a bit of it is just the sad reality of the world we find ourselves in.

I think your point about this global reality in new industries is correct but unlike Europe, Canada has advantages in energy/natural resources and tech "offshoring" (due to time zones and language). I am not sure Canada has leveraged these advantages very well, and if we had done well attracting and retaining more of a tech workforce we probably would have seen more domestically-driven job growth too. Tech employs fewer people but Canada is/was a smaller country so we don't need to capture a big piece of the global pie.

The USA has had huge wage increases in various industries which means that we could have pretty good jobs even with a big wage cut compared to them. Cost of living issues detract from this possibility. If you're looking at living in Toronto vs. the Bay Area on 1/2 or 2/3 the pay, housing will play into that (along with all the other ways you get dinged by the oligopolies, taxes, and so on, not that California is great in all these areas either).