Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
I can tell you how it happens. My wife has worked for ASU for a decade and the entire University industry is a bloated overpriced mess. Pretty much for the last century Universities could expect ever more students, ever more funds, ever more growth and as we can all see they did massively.
However, since covid the never-ending growth has suddenly changed. And it's not even a major change they are seeing a decrease in students in somewhere like 2-4%. Now the universities are essentially trying to steal "market share" with each other and cannibalize their own potential student basis between in person and online education.
There appears to be no institutional ability to deal with stagnation or god forbid shrinking of the student and a reduction in funding. I dont think they have even begun to confront the reality that Zoomers (Kids below about 22ish) have simply significantly less people in it that Millennials which means less students not to mention the value of degrees vs vocational or trade education. Unless Millennials start having a LOT more kids in the next decade or so while they still can then there is no light at the end of the tunnel either as lower birthrates will continue to produce less future students.
Higher Ed in general is going to have a reckoning in the coming decades as they learn to operate in the new Paradigm and ironically Academia is extremely resistant to change and confronting reality. My wife has to deal with Deans and tenured professors who treat the internet like an inconsequential fad and act like they are some romantic thinkers rather than the people running an absolutely massive multibillion dollar education business (oh wait sorry its not a "buisness" its an "organization"  ) |
This analysis, especially about birth rates, is dead on.
We know from student clearinghouse data that total enrollment in postsecondary is down about 10% since prepandemic or a million students nationwide. And that was in an environment with stable populations. Universities are about to experience what K-12s currently face: massive birth rate declines. Todays junior and senior HS classes are double digit percentages larger than current elementary grades.
Colleges survived with $77 billion in federal COVID monies and those are now spent. Fitch ratings predicts college closures will come in a strong way.
College undergrad enrollment increased for decades in America. The promise was education, a fun social experience during one’s formative years, and a resume that very likely meant improved future wages. So what has changed? Is that value proposition suffering or are we simply pendulum swinging back to a more appropriate amount of undergrad seeking people? It’s probably a bit of both.
How does this relate to UA? I'm not sure I haven't studied their financials but I bet they took on some short term debt with variable interest that is killing them. They did mention internal loans to athletics as part of the problem- you don't give out internal loans unless you think they will have the ability to repay and it sounds like that 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 didn't work.
48 colleges closed their doors last year. 35 the year before. I predict smaller private schools with less than 1000 total students are about to face massive challenges.
I predict many more young people will choose to work and acquire skills and only seek out undergrad programs when it suits them or they decide they need it for their career. That's not all bad. But it will be disruptive to higher ed.
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