Residential Real Estate in your city

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Which was really a better deal?

Once again, when regular old middle class people talk about real estate "deals", they're typically doing so through the lens of barriers to entry (ie. getting a lot for not a lot), not through the investor-class lens of ROI (ie. "holy 🞵🞵🞵🞵, I'm gonna clean up on this!").

Neither perspective is wrong, just different.

[iheartthed]

I'm not familiar with Portland at all but I think $500k is at least 80th percentile in Metro Detroit, whereas I suspect it is near or below the median in Portland. In my mind, the only places you would spend more than $500k in Metro Detroit is a tony suburb or on a former auto baron's mansion in Detroit.

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm not familiar with Portland at all but I think $500k is at least 80th percentile in Metro Detroit, whereas I suspect it is near or below the median in Portland. In my mind, the only places you would spend more than $500k in Metro Detroit is a tony suburb or on a former auto baron's mansion in Detroit.

Exactly. And the difference in monthly payment is not insignificant when you’re coming with a large down payment. ~2,000 less per month is very meaningful for a middle class family, particularly when considering the huge step up in both living space as well as life improvement based on the better neighborhood. .

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, you're implying that moving to a lower-cost market means you pay less for housing. This isn't what typically happens. The research indicates that people pay around the same, they just buy more square footage, leveraging the lower costs. When someone moves from Connecticut to Alabama, they don't buy a home 1/2 the price, they buy a home 2x the size. They're already established a threshold for what they're comfortable paying.

I'd tend to phrase it as "they buy a home that's 1/2 the price" (of the home that they want, in their current state).

"subterranean realized that in Michigan, the houses he wants are 1/2 the price of what the houses he wants are selling for in Oregon" is a perfectly reasonable statement.

Someone from Connecticut finds their home too small for where they are now in life, wants to buy a home 2x the size, finds that they can't afford that if they stay in Connecticut, but also finds that those houses that are what he wants are 1/2 the price in Alabama of what they are in Connecticut, so he sells the small CT house and buys a big AL house for the same price, getting the house upgrade he wanted, thanks to being able to get the home at 1/2 the price of similar CT homes.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I responded to your claim that 650-700k was an unacceptably high amount to pay for a family-sized suburban house in a good school district. That is a very common price range in upper middle class suburban America, these days, MI included.

No it's not and if it is, they are typically gated communities with newish homes averaging 3,000+ s/f on good sized lots. Otherwise, pushing 3/4's of a million for a slice of the suburbs even with good schools skews on the higher end of things for most suburbs. My house is large and in a high end school district and is not worth anywhere near as much but newer and larger lots in my area are going for that much but we are talking 4,000 s/f with faux porte-cochère's.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm not familiar with Portland at all but I think $500k is at least 80th percentile in Metro Detroit, whereas I suspect it is near or below the median in Portland. In my mind, the only places you would spend more than $500k in Metro Detroit is a tony suburb or on a former auto baron's mansion in Detroit.

This isn't apples-apples. A huge proportion of Metro Detroit is very low value Rustbelt. Places like Pontiac and Romulus have tons of homes even under 100k. Portland doesn't have any of this. It doesn't even have Warren- or Westland-type areas.

500k will not get you a good SFH in a higher-end school district in Metro Detroit. Looking where my brother lives, there's a new construction development near him and homes basically start at $1 million. These are basic Pulte mini-McMansion homes, not custom homes or anything luxurious. It's just big homes on a farm field on the boonies fringe, no real appeal outside great schools. Custom homes will start a lot higher, as will anything walkable, near downtown Northville:

https://www.pulte.com/homes/michigan/detroit/northville/ballantyne-210870

[mrnyc]

^ oh gee is he ok??!

he included an actual link from his mega googling.

its a first.

if you survived this crawford keep it up!

[mrnyc]

dubious where this goes, but among a lot of other things of course i wonder what would happen to re prices in staten island if it secedes from nyc?


the painless link:

https://www.silive.com/news/2023/09/its-...backing-of-fellow-elected-officials.html

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by Crawford

This isn't apples-apples. A huge proportion of Metro Detroit is very low value Rustbelt. Places like Pontiac and Romulus have tons of homes even under 100k. Portland doesn't have any of this. It doesn't even have Warren- or Westland-type areas.

500k will not get you a good SFH in a higher-end school district in Metro Detroit. Looking where my brother lives, there's a new construction development near him and homes basically start at $1 million. These are basic Pulte mini-McMansion homes, not custom homes or anything luxurious. It's just big homes on a farm field on the boonies fringe, no real appeal outside great schools. Custom homes will start a lot higher, as will anything walkable, near downtown Northville:

https://www.pulte.com/homes/michigan/detroit/northville/ballantyne-210870

That Pulte house is quite a bit short of a million. Just saying.

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by Crawford

500k will not get you a good SFH in a higher-end school district in Metro Detroit.

That is some Trump level denial given that I just shared about 10 great houses in that price range. You’re acting like the average person in this forum should be looking for top 10% homes, which is basically anything above 500,000 in Michigan, because $500k homes are 210% higher than median.

$510k is the actual median home price in Oregon. Median income in Oregon is $114k for a family of 4, which means the median income family can’t afford a median price home without a big down payment. It would be impossible for the vast majority of median income homeowners to afford a $750k house in the suburbs. Actually impossible given underwriting standards without a massive down payment.

A $500k home in Michigan is basically a $1,000,000 home in Oregon. If you live in a million dollar home in Oregon you’re a top 5% earner. However, a median income Oregonian with $250k cash could afford a home in Michigan that only top 10% earners could otherwise afford. That is just a fact.

By the way, you couldn’t pay me to live in Northville. I’d rather compromise on space for walkability and character. Michigan also has schools of choice. So long as there’s room, your kids can go to almost any public school.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Crawford

When someone moves from Connecticut to Alabama, they don't buy a home 1/2 the price, they buy a home 2x the size. They're already established a threshold for what they're comfortable paying.

Yep. And if you give people a 4-year reprieve on paying their federal student loans, they don't pay themselves that money (i.e. invest the payments in a retirement account or HSA), they do some combination of working less and buying frivolous stuff.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Yep. And if you give people a 4-year reprieve on paying their federal student loans, they don't pay themselves that money (i.e. invest the payments in a retirement account or HSA), they do some combination of working less and buying frivolous stuff.

Cool story, bro.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

That Pulte house is quite a bit short of a million. Just saying.

No, it's over a million. It would be almost impossible to buy a new construction home starting in the 900's for under 1 million.

When you see new SFH listed as starting at x, it's developer BS. You probably need to add at least 10%.

A 900k home will have two huge separate fees - a lot fee and a landscaping fee. You'll pay at least 50k for the lot, and you'll have to do at least 50k in required landscaping (grading, sod, sprinkler, array of required trees/shrubs, patio/deck).

And this is ignoring any home additions/alternations. You want a finished basement or garage? You want anything beyond the basic standard features? There's a fee. If I were buying a new construction 900k sprawl home, I'd probably budget 1.1 million or so. My brother's original home, which was in a cheaper nearby suburb (South Lyon) had homes starting around 300k a decade ago, and I think he eventually paid nearly 400k for the 300k model. They didn't do anything fancy, but kitchen upgrades and finished basement add up.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by subterranean

That is some Trump level denial given that I just shared about 10 great houses in that price range.

This is silly. Finding homes listed in a price range doesn't establish that's the market for the area. At minimum, you would have to establish apples-apples medians. And you'd do actual sales, not listing prices. A listing price is useless. People underprice to cause bidding wars, or they overprice bc they're delusional. Looking at Zillow I frequently see cheap properties listed in my neighborhood. They're intentionally underpricing, the listing is inaccurate, the monthlies are enormous, or it's income-restricted housing. Only closed sales matter.

Originally Posted by subterranean

You’re acting like the average person in this forum should be looking for top 10% homes, which is basically anything above 500,000 in Michigan, because $500k homes are 210% higher than median.

No. First, we aren't talking about MI, we're talking about Metro Detroit, where the median is a lot higher. Apples-apples comparisons with suburban Portland. Oakland County median is 350k. Second, we aren't talking about average homebuyers but families seeking SFH suburbs with good schools in the 650-700 range. The strong majority of households have no kids and even many households with kids don't care, attend non-publics or don't have the resources to house shop.

It's a very small share of households that has kids and has the resources to choose a SFH in a suburb with good schools. That cohort wouldn't be paying anywhere near regional medians.

Originally Posted by subterranean

By the way, you couldn’t pay me to live in Northville. I’d rather compromise on space for walkability and character. Michigan also has schools of choice. So long as there’s room, your kids can go to almost any public school.

Say what?

Northville is one of the most walkable Metro Detroit suburbs. The town is basically 100% walkable and has super-Victorian-era character, with homes even built before Civil War. It's one of the oldest towns in MI. Have you ever been to Northville?

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4319074,...6thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/place/160+Ma...3.4818161!16s%2Fg%2F11gxmbbpqw?entry=ttu

And good districts don't have schools of choice. Only lower-performing districts have schools of choice. Nonresidents cannot get their kids into Northville, Novi, Birmingham, Bloomfield, Grosse Pointe, Rochester, Troy, etc. Districts can opt-out of schools of choice, and all the high performing districts do. This is why there's a big premium on these districts.

Also, MI is one the worst performing states in terms of overall school performance and OR performs much better. So obviously an average OR district isn't comparable to an average MI district. In order to get apples-apples you'd need to compare to a higher performing MI district. MI unfortunately performs closer to MS than to MA.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Say what?

Northville is one of the most walkable Metro Detroit suburbs. The town is basically 100% walkable and has super-Victorian-era character, with homes even built before Civil War. It's one of the oldest towns in MI. Have you ever been to Northville?

Only downtown Northville is walkable and that lasts for about two blocks. The rest of Northville is indistinguishable from any other McMansion suburb. It's way behind Birmingham, Royal Oak, or the Pointes, IMO.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Only downtown Northville is walkable and that lasts for about two blocks. The rest of Northville is indistinguishable from any other McMansion suburb. It's way behind Birmingham, Royal Oak, or the Pointes, IMO.

Northville is much older than all these communities, and just as walkable. There are no real McMansion areas in Northville.

The downtown area is even pedestrianized now. I'm not sure if there's another equivalent in Metro Detroit?

There are McMansion areas in Northville school district, but that's a big geography, bordering Ann Arbor to the west, Novi to the north, and heading up into sprawly McMansion areas in neighboring townships.

[subterranean]

With the exception of their tiny strip of downtown, Northville is your stereotypical exurban sprawl factory far away from anything worth caring about. It is surrounded on all sides by Northville Township and Novi, which is exactly the sprawly 🞵🞵🞵🞵 you say it’s not.

[subterranean]

This is the type of modest house I would buy if I could convince my wife to move metro Detroit. It has over twice the space I have now, an extra bedroom, a finished basement. Close to the zoo and Woodward Corridor, and it’s in a great school district. At $439k, we would only be financing less than half of it, keeping the payment very reasonable.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10725...&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Northville is much older than all these communities, and just as walkable. There are no real McMansion areas in Northville.

The old core is scaled similarly, yes, but I think the other suburban downtowns that I mentioned seem a bit bigger. I would rank downtown Birmingham, downtown Royal Oak, or Kercheval Avenue through the Pointes ahead. If you also include Ann Arbor as Metro Detroit, then downtown Ann Arbor is probably the winner.

Originally Posted by Crawford

The downtown area is even pedestrianized now. I'm not sure if there's another equivalent in Metro Detroit?

It's probably ahead of other suburban Detroit downtowns in that regard. If/when the Detroit area ever restores commuter rail, I think a line to Plymouth and Northville would make a lot of sense.

[subterranean]

This 984 sq. ft. house just sold for $400k in a relatively low-income area in the suburbs of Portland.

To put this price into perspective at current interest rates, a buyer would need an annual household income of about $120,000 to qualify with 5% down.

The median income for a family of 4 in the Portland region is $114,400. Median income for all households was $81,149 in 2021, according to the Oregon Employment Department.

You would have to be in the top 85th percentile of households in terms of income to afford this small starter home in today's market. The payment would be about $3,100 per month on a standard 30-year mortgage including property taxes.