BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by fredinno

What's this then?
https://338canada.com/bc/1029e.htm
https://338canada.com/bc/1079e.htm

BCC isn't even in the aggregate on the specific MP districts.

It's exactly what is says it is "Latest projection: May 9, 2023"

It's a guy in Quebec saying he thinks that in the next provincial election that in both Langford-Juan de Fuca and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant the BCC would get 2% of the total poll. Now he made those projections before the byelections were held, so maybe he'd change them in future (although maybe not in Mount Pleasant). In both cases he says in his opinion it's 99% certain the NDP would win both seats, and the BCC have zero % of winning either.

As Bluefox commented, "Regardless of the methodology, it's still mostly guesswork." Unless you know of one, there were no polls done in the individual ridings before the by-election. (Why bother, the NDP were likely to win both - which they did).

If you don't think a Quebec astrophysicist is offering a credible projection, then maybe don't link to him.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It's exactly what is says it is "Latest projection: May 9, 2023"

It's a guy in Quebec saying he thinks that in the next provincial election that in both Langford-Juan de Fuca and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant the BCC would get 2% of the total poll. Now he made those projections before the byelections were held, so maybe he'd change them in future (although maybe not in Mount Pleasant). In both cases he says in his opinion it's 99% certain the NDP would win both seats, and the BCC have zero % of winning either.

As Bluefox commented, "Regardless of the methodology, it's still mostly guesswork." Unless you know of one, there were no polls done in the individual ridings before the by-election. (Why bother, the NDP were likely to win both - which they did).

If you don't think a Quebec astrophysicist is offering a credible projection, then maybe don't link to him.

1st: Looking at the aggregate of polls used for the projections, half of them don't even have BCC in the polling.
2nd: All polling is 'guesswork' to an extent.
You have no idea whether those guys will even show up to vote.
3rd: 338's methodology uses a polling aggregate combined with interpolation and a few other factors.
https://338canada.blogspot.com/2018/11/welcome-to-338canada.html#metho
The fact an astrophysicist created it has nothing to do with anything.
4th: I literally said it's not 100% accurate.
This is the closest thing to polling for a low-turnout byelection that was safe NDP (so no one bothered to poll much).
Even if you had a (1) poll, it'd probably be as accurate as the interpolation due to the lack of other polls.
That poll could easily have bad methodology, or be an outlier. That's often the case with races that have very low polling interest.

Also:
https://338canada.com/record.htm

The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 12 general elections in Canada. In total, 1,600 electoral districts were projected.

So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,437 districts, a success rate of 89.8%.

Among the 163 remaining districts, 95 of the winners (5.9%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 68 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.

Districts Correct
winner Incorrect
winner Correct %
Safe 44 44 0 100%
Likely 11 10 1 91%
Leaning 15 11 4 73%
Toss up 17 12 5 71%
Total 87 77 10 88.5%

The goal of the BCC was never to win in those seats, it was to beat BCU and get 2nd place so they can displace the BCU (crazier things have happened before in BC politics) or at least push BCU rightwards.

Which they succeeded in.
Way more than anyone expected.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by fredinno

1st: Looking at the aggregate of polls used for the projections, half of them don't even have BCC in the polling.
2nd: All polling is 'guesswork' to an extent.
You have no idea whether those guys will even show up to vote.
3rd: 338's methodology uses a polling aggregate combined with interpolation and a few other factors..

What exactly are you "aggregating" when there are zero polls being conducted, though?

There is a margin of error with a 95% confidence interval on actual polls for a reason, it's not there by accident. Pollsters select a sample size that can reasonably be extrapolated onto the broader electorate. There is going to be that 5% of the time where the polls get it "wrong", but wrong simply means it fell outside the margin.

I get the sense you are feeling the need to defend your position but I just want to be clear this is simply pointing out that people often put too much faith in/lend too much credibility to sites like 338.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by bluefox

What exactly are you "aggregating" when there are zero polls being conducted, though?

There is a margin of error with a 95% confidence interval on actual polls for a reason, it's not there by accident. Pollsters select a sample size that can reasonably be extrapolated onto the broader electorate. There is going to be that 5% of the time where the polls get it "wrong", but wrong simply means it fell outside the margin.

I get the sense you are feeling the need to defend your position but I just want to be clear this is simply pointing out that people often put too much faith in/lend too much credibility to sites like 338.

Read the methodology section again:
https://338canada.blogspot.com/2018/11/welcome-to-338canada.html#metho

I didn’t quote it because it’s stupidly long.

[chowhou]

Populism wins again.

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2023HOUS0112-001430

Province caps annual rent increase well below inflation

For the second consecutive year, B.C.’s maximum allowable rent increase is being set below the inflation rate. The maximum increase for 2024 will be 3.5%.

“Across the country, costs have been increasing — especially for housing — at a rate that’s unsustainable for many people,” said Ravi Kahlon, Minister of Housing. “We know that’s the case for both landlords and renters, and that’s why we’ve found a balance to protect renters while helping to keep rental units on the market.”

The rent cap of 3.5% is well below the 12-month average inflation rate of 5.6% and applies to rent increases with an effective date on or after Jan. 1, 2024. If landlords choose to increase rent, they must provide a full three months’ notice to tenants using the correct Notice of Rent Increase form. B.C. landlords can increase rent only once every 12 months.

The Province has been taking steps to support renters throughout British Columbia. Before 2018, the annual allowable rent increase was based on the inflation rate plus 2%. Following a recommendation by the Rental Housing Task Force, the rent increase was reduced to just the inflation rate. A rent increase freeze was put in place in 2020 and 2021 to support renters during the COVID-19 pandemic. To protect renters from high inflation in 2023, the Province capped rent increases at 2%, well below the 5.4% inflation rate that would have otherwise applied.

“With renters facing a possible rent increase of almost 6%, the government listened to the voice of renters and acted, and I'm so glad they have,” said Spencer Chandra Herbert, Premier’s Special liaison for Renters, former chair of the Rental Housing Task Force and MLA for Vancouver-West End. “We also know people renting out homes are facing increased costs and want to make sure they continue to make places available for long-term renters.”

The 2024 maximum allowable rent increase is significantly less than what it would have been prior to changes made by the Province in 2018 that limited rent increases to inflation. As inflation returns to normal levels, the Province intends to return to an annual rent increase that is tied to B.C.'s Consumer Price Index in future years. Under the previous government, maximum rent increases could include an additional 2% on top of inflation. This change has saved families hundreds of dollars.

Since 2017, the Province has taken steps to better protect renters, including banning illegal renovictions and strengthening the financial penalties for landlords who evict tenants in bad faith. A renoviction is an eviction that is carried out to renovate or repair a rental unit.

In addition, government provided the Residential Tenancy Branch (RTB) with $15.6 million in additional funding to improve services and reduce delays. The capacity of the RTB’s Compliance and Enforcement Unit was also increased to allow for earlier interventions and to eliminate the need for hearings in the first place.

They're not even pretending to tie allowable rent increases to inflation anymore.

[whatnext]

The Bc Conservatives now have official party status after Abbotsford South MLA jumps to them from BC United:

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/09/13/abbotsford-mla-joins-bc-conservatives/

[djmk]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The Bc Conservatives now have official party status after Abbotsford South MLA jumps to them from BC United:

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/09/13/abbotsford-mla-joins-bc-conservatives/

a quote from that article

"we refuse to condone the ideological NDP education agenda that teaches students what to think instead of how to think;"

this is either about lgbtq+ stuff or indigenous reconciliation stuff. Either way, it comes across as a little qanon.

[Migrant_Coconut]

The BC Cons have pretty much always been our PPC (them and Christian Heritage); two seats is probably the highlight of the party's whole existence... before they both go to United candidates next year.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by djmk

a quote from that article

"we refuse to condone the ideological NDP education agenda that teaches students what to think instead of how to think;"

this is either about lgbtq+ stuff or indigenous reconciliation stuff. Either way, it comes across as a little qanon.

And similarly, the Americans who spout this nonsense are very much concerned with teaching students what to think, burning books, restricting discussion, etc. The freedom of thought tripe is a smokescreen.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

And similarly, the Americans who spout this nonsense are very much concerned with teaching students what to think, burning books, restricting discussion, etc. The freedom of thought tripe is a smokescreen.

ironically, this will probably cause the united and the conservatives to split the vote and the NDP to come up the middle and win this riding.

personally, I would find that hilarious.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by djmk

ironically, this will probably cause the united and the conservatives to split the vote and the NDP to come up the middle and win this riding.

personally, I would find that hilarious.

Also extremely ironically, there's a world where BC United sheds its right wing to the BC Conservatives, they position themselves as a more centrist party to try to eat into the large NDP left of centre pie, and BC United ends up more closely aligning with the federal Liberals!

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Also extremely ironically, there's a world where BC United sheds its right wing to the BC Conservatives, they position themselves as a more centrist party to try to eat into the large NDP left of centre pie, and BC United ends up more closely aligning with the federal Liberals!

The NDP have moved to the right though, they currently own most of the centre in BC. Smart move to have finally done that. They don't face much anger from the "left", Greens notwithstanding.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The NDP have moved to the right though, they currently own most of the centre in BC. Smart move to have finally done that. They don't face much anger from the "left", Greens notwithstanding.

They could easily bleed off support to the Greens from people who don't want to vote for them again and but can't stomach BC United.

I'm surprised at what a dud Falcon has tuned out to be. He at least used to be scrappy now he's practically invisible.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by whatnext

They could easily bleed off support to the Greens from people who don't want to vote for them again and but can't stomach BC United.

I'm surprised at what a dud Falcon has tuned out to be. He at least used to be scrappy now he's practically invisible.

I have no idea who the BC Cons leader is (and too lazy to check), however, if its a half competent public speaker, i can easily see this party steal lots of votes from the United.

I don't think the general public even knows who the United are anymore. Its a fresh name for a party that seems to be in turmoil. While, on the other hand, everyone knows what a "conservative" is (good or bad).

I would not be surprised if the Bc Cons do to the United what the liberals did to the Social Credit in the early 90s.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by djmk

I have no idea who the BC Cons leader is (and too lazy to check), however, if its a half competent public speaker, i can easily see this party steal lots of votes from the United.

He's a bit of a nutcase, Falcon kicked him out of the BC Liberals for climate change denialism.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by chowhou

He's a bit of a nutcase, Falcon kicked him out of the BC Liberals for climate change denialism.

lol. ok then nevermind

[Migrant_Coconut]

Yeah, the Greens have a better chance than the provincial Cons.

[logicbomb]

I'm no longer voting. All the parties are the same, but maybe differ in social matters that maybe impact 5-10% of the population?

Immigration and housing are the biggest issues in this country right now. No party at the top level will touch this and no party at the provincial level seem intent on doing anything to advocate for change. The goal is to rapidly grow the population while not adding the infrastructure to prop the GDP and allow your grocery and restaurant oligopolies to line their pocket. Quality of life goes to 🞵🞵🞵🞵.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

I'm no longer voting.

Suit yourself, thanks for making my vote more powerful!

[djmk]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

I'm no longer voting. All the parties are the same, but maybe differ in social matters that maybe impact 5-10% of the population?

Immigration and housing are the biggest issues in this country right now. No party at the top level will touch this and no party at the provincial level seem intent on doing anything to advocate for change. The goal is to rapidly grow the population while not adding the infrastructure to prop the GDP and allow your grocery and restaurant oligopolies to line their pocket. Quality of life goes to 🞵🞵🞵🞵.

10 years and everything will be different. Todays demographic pressures were inevitable and were not properly planned out 20 years ago.