BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The NPA also lost in 2018. Basically, byelections are a bad representation of general elections because only the special interest voters turn out.

Doubt it - Bremner was both literally and figuratively a used-car dealer, and many voters can smell that from 1.6 kilometres away.

He dominated that by-election and he was pretty popular as a councilor, if you were around to remember.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

He dominated that by-election and he was pretty popular as a councilor, if you were around to remember.

I remember the debate, and how his answer to everything was more development.

Affordability? We need more housing. Crime? More housing, and it'll go away. Transportation? Well, there's no point in expanding transit if we don't have more housing. Even as a YIMBY that was disturbing - buddy, you got any other ideas?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I remember the debate, and how his answer to everything was more development.

Affordability? We need more housing. Crime? More housing, and it'll go away. Transportation? Well, there's no point in expanding transit if we don't have more housing. Even as a YIMBY that was disturbing - buddy, you got any other ideas?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I remember the debate, and how his answer to everything was more development.

Affordability? We need more housing. Crime? More housing, and it'll go away. Transportation? Well, there's no point in expanding transit if we don't have more housing. Even as a YIMBY that was disturbing - buddy, you got any other ideas?

Imagine if we had 4 years of YIMBY, and a council that could actually get things done. Here we are and housing is still the biggest problem, BY FAR.

But do go on...

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

-snip-

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Imagine if we had 4 years of YIMBY, and a council that could actually get things done. Here we are and housing is still the biggest problem, BY FAR.

But do go on...

We had 3-5 YIMBY councillors and a somewhat-receptive mayor for those four years. Could've been much better, could've been much worse; I'll take that over a flat-out kleptocrat in charge for that same period, because that didn't work out either.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It's interesting that the Conservative candidate came second in Langford and BC United came a distant 4th. Obviously Falcon and Co have some work cut out for them in establishing in the public's mind what BC United actually is.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c...ns-byelection-results-takeaway-1.6888246

It at least means the BC Conservatives are a serious political party now at least.
Yes, turnout is low for this election, but it is still a pretty major shift.

Also, the polls showed a BC United vote share of 15% before the by-election, who seemed to just flip to the Conservatives:
https://338canada.com/bc/1029e.htm


We have no idea which is stronger so far, as the right in BC is still in flux.


It's a single data-point, but an interesting data point nonetheless.


On the other hand, the result from Mt. Pleasant is probably not a good indication of anything, since the Conservative candidate went all NIMBY for some reason because there wasn't enough middle-class housing in 105 Keefer.

Safe to say they probably threw that one. So the fact BC United did better there is not shocking.
I don't even think they were trying there by the look of it.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

So you're suggesting that Falcon and Co have to work at making sure the public know that BC United are conservatives too?

According to this article a lot of voters seemed unaware of who BC United was:

BC United has work to do after 'collapse' in byelection: pundit
'The story isn’t so much how the NDP did but how the three main opposition parties fared,' says David Black, a political communications professor at Royal Roads University
By Carla Wilson, Times Colonist | June 26, 2023, 8:00am

Elena Lawson has no doubt why her party struggled to win votes in Saturday’s byelection: brand confusion and low voter turnout.

The B.C. Liberal Party changed its name to BC United in April. Lawson said when she was door-knocking, many asked: “What is the BC United party?”

Lawson figures some of the BC United’s traditional vote moved to the B.C. Conservatives because voters were familiar with the signs and colours of the federal Conservative Party of Canada....

....BC United “has work to do in terms of the rebrand and establishing who they are and what they are about,” he said.

As the party looks to 2024, Black predicts “they will fall back on what has always been, during the Liberal era, their strongest message, which is: ‘We are the party of fiscal prudence.’ ”....

....”I think things have gotten more complicated for [BC United Leader Kevin] Falcon.”

https://biv.com/article/2023/06/bc-united-has-work-do-after-collapse-byelection-pundit

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

According to this article a lot of voters seemed unaware of who BC United was:

Interesting - thanks. So just because we all know who BC Untied are, much of the electorate haven't heard. Maybe changing the party name wasn't such a good idea - whose idea was it? Ah yes, 'Kevin Who?' as the electorate apparently know him.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Interesting - thanks. So just because we all know who BC Untied are, much of the electorate haven't heard. Maybe changing the party name wasn't such a good idea - whose idea was it? Ah yes, 'Kevin Who?' as the electorate apparently know him.

I doubt that, since the BC Conservatives had the reputation of being a joke of a party before their rebrand.

The BC Liberals had to change their name.
Trudeau is not the person you want to 'represent' your center-right party, even if the provincial party has nothing to do with the Federal Party.
In the early 2000s, having a centre-right party associated with the Liberals made some sense.

Today, the Federal Liberals have just gone so far left in recent years that the cost of a rebrand is probably lower overall than the confusion from the other side of people believing the BC Liberals are 'left-wing' because of their name.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by fredinno

....the cost of a rebrand is probably lower overall than the confusion from the other side of people believing the BC Liberals are 'left-wing' because of their name.

There might be confusion out-of-province, but I don't know if that's the case within - especially given that the BC Conservatives did not even get two percent of the popular vote in the last election.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

There might be confusion out-of-province, but I don't know if that's the case within - especially given that the BC Conservatives did not even get two percent of the popular vote in the last election.

I don't think branding is the main problem either way- I think people who vote in there low-turnout elections are more likely to genuinely know who they're voting for.

My point is that the BC Liberals had a branding problem even if they kept their own name.
The party suffered before they did the rebranding (look at the 2021 results).
It's more likely people are voting Conservative because of actual policy factors than branding.

Looking at the by-election polls, a large % of United supporters likely switched to Conservative during the actual election, while answering United to the pollsters.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Looking at the by-election polls, a large % of United supporters likely switched to Conservative during the actual election, while answering United to the pollsters.

What polls? Link?

[Tysonbrown]

British Columbians have longer memories than BC United thought. So much to remember.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Tysonbrown

British Columbians have longer memories than BC United thought. So much to remember.

The NDP shouldn't be taking byelection results as a sign BC is thrilled with Eby, rather that Falcon and BC United are underperforming.

Eby government performance rating drops below Christy Clark era, poll shows
Only 11 per cent of British Columbians were satisfied with Eby's government on housing affordability
By Graeme Wood, Glacier Media | June 29, 2023, 3:00pm

British Columbians’ satisfaction with their provincial government is at its lowest rate in a decade but Premier David Eby is unlikely to face political consequences from voters, at this time, according to Angus Reid Institute.

The pollster’s provincial government performance rating has reached a score of 27 in B.C., putting the province below the nationwide average score of 30 and well below the 34 rating former Premier Christy Clark’s BC Liberal party received in 2017, prior to being unseated from government that summer...

....despite these criticisms and the decade-low opinion of government performance, the BC NDP is facing little backlash in terms of voter intention,” with 47 per cent support while the opposition BC United Party has 29 per cent support, after re-branding from the BC Liberal title.

The institute says BC United leader Kevin Falcon — a veteran BC Liberal politician turned property development executive — reborn again as party leader in 2022 — is “viewed favourably” by one in five British Columbians, while about half hold an unfavourable view of him.....

https://biv.com/article/2023/06/eby-gove...drops-below-christy-clark-era-poll-shows

[Migrant_Coconut]

Should be enough. The ex-Libs need at least sixteen seats to get back into power, and judging by 2020, pandering to the interior and the Valley as per usual won't cut it.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Also, the polls showed a BC United vote share of 15% before the by-election, who seemed to just flip to the Conservatives:
https://338canada.com/bc/1029e.htm

Sorry, need to object to this. 338 is an electoral model that normally bases its projections on a handful of polls and past electoral data, that gets mischaracterized as a polling aggregator. Regardless of the methodology, it's still mostly guesswork.

I don't recall seeing a single riding-level poll for these byelections, in which case 338's call as to what would happen was purely speculative. Sure enough, if you scroll down on that link, you'll see the projection is based only on a rough average of the 2017 and 2020 election results, plus or minus... 8%. So, the NDP could have won between 55 and 71% of the vote. And they won 53. Why don't you just blindfold me and I'll chuck a dart at the wall? It's the same thing. (For comparison, scientific polling usually has a margin of error half that of 338.)

Plus, what is the value of this website, especially when we're talking seats where the mood is not anti-government and the incumbent party is in power. It's going to be exceedingly hard to get a guess like this wrong, and still, the actual result was outside their 16-point range of likely results. Yikes.

Just saying, be careful reading too much into what this site says, or taking much away from it.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Should be enough. The ex-Libs need at least sixteen seats to get back into power, and judging by 2020, pandering to the interior and the Valley as per usual won't cut it.

Even worse for them; they need at least 20. You forget the legislature is increasing to 93 seats next election. 47 will be a bare-bones majority and they have 27. Five of the new seats are in Metro Vancouver/Greater Victoria, and if the BC Conservatives can stay relevant in any way and peel off rural votes in the Interior and North, it could be an even worse election for BCU in 2024 than it was for Wilkinson's Liberals in 2020.

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Tysonbrown

British Columbians have longer memories than BC United thought. So much to remember.

Everyone will point back to the Fast Ferries as the reason why the NDP should not be given another turn at the helm, so it took them 15 years to get another chance.

The same will be of the BC United formerly known as BC Liberals, with pointing to the sale of BC Rail under Gordon and the Money laundering under Clark.

Voters always remember corruption scandals, and they always remember when something the government does harms them. For Rural BC, both the 1980's NDP and the 2000's Liberals did substantial harm to rural BC's ability to be self-sufficient, so people who need any serious medical procedures, or educational opportunities have to move to Vancouver.

You know why Vancouver real estate is so expensive? Because bad policy keeps exacerbating the need to build more housing in Vancouver, instead of anywhere else in BC, because everywhere that isn't the lower mainland has no hospitals or universities to spread the load around. Hospitals in rural BC are little more than urgent-care centers since the 1980's.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Kisai

Everyone will point back to the Fast Ferries as the reason why the NDP should not be given another turn at the helm, so it took them 15 years to get another chance.

The same will be of the BC United formerly known as BC Liberals, with pointing to the sale of BC Rail under Gordon and the Money laundering under Clark.

Voters always remember corruption scandals, and they always remember when something the government does harms them. For Rural BC, both the 1980's NDP and the 2000's Liberals did substantial harm to rural BC's ability to be self-sufficient, so people who need any serious medical procedures, or educational opportunities have to move to Vancouver.

You know why Vancouver real estate is so expensive? Because bad policy keeps exacerbating the need to build more housing in Vancouver, instead of anywhere else in BC, because everywhere that isn't the lower mainland has no hospitals or universities to spread the load around. Hospitals in rural BC are little more than urgent-care centers since the 1980's.

So BC Conservatives?

Either way I got the polling from 338Canada.


I have a feeling a lot of polling does not include BC Conservatives, since a lot of regional/district polls have them at 0%.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by fredinno

So BC Conservatives?

Either way I got the polling from 338Canada.


I have a feeling a lot of polling does not include BC Conservatives, since a lot of regional/district polls have them at 0%.

It was already explained that 338Canada (created by an astrophysics professor) doesn't have any polls below Province-wide. Those currently show BCC at below 5% overall. Their projections, last updated in May, generally show the BCC picking up votes in every riding, but not enough to get any seats.

They currently project the NDP to win 56 seats with 44% of the vote, BC United to win 28, with 33.6% of the vote and the Greens to get 3 with 16.3% of the vote. They think the BCC could get 4.8% of the vote overall.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It was already explained that 338Canada (created by an astrophysics professor) doesn't have any polls below Province-wide. Those currently show BCC at below 5% overall. Their projections, last updated in May, generally show the BCC picking up votes in every riding, but not enough to get any seats.

They currently project the NDP to win 56 seats with 44% of the vote, BC United to win 28, with 33.6% of the vote and the Greens to get 3 with 16.3% of the vote. They think the BCC could get 4.8% of the vote overall.

What's this then?
https://338canada.com/bc/1029e.htm
https://338canada.com/bc/1079e.htm

BCC isn't even in the aggregate on the specific MP districts.

If we take the popular vote share here at face value (and don't assume the most likely scenario, which is that BCC is under-polled for not really being taken seriously pre-byelection), BCC overperformed by ~+18 points in Langford, and ~+3 in Mt Pleasant (the BCC campaign there was a disaster from start to finish, though.)

Either a large number of BCU voters simply switched to BCC on election day, or BCC picked up a lot of new, previously non-voter, voters (the turnout is so low that it's pretty easy to do that- all the other parties, including NDP and the Greens were over-polled, and it's unlikely the BCC took voters from them.)
Or a combination of both. Which is the most likely option.

A large change in turnout amongst new voters is generally not captured in polling very well.


We're still 2 years from the election, and the polling is awful right now.
I have severe doubts at its reliability.

Anything could happen at this point.