DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by RyanD

I know I’ve been quite negative lately but there are so many… opportunities right now that could make our city great if anyone could give about 30% more of a shit. 18 month wait to get an affordable housing SDP through CPD, agencies alienating developers (DOTI), RTD just letting the Wild West take over, constant allergies with condos and for-sale housing, and refusal to meet in the middle for anything is killing us. Talking with those in the developer circles, it’s just a sad, sad circus right now. Apparently even getting a TCO these days is a nightmare and might take a half dozen inspector visits at weird hours because that agency refuses to manage their time.

I'm partially convinced half of the development process headaches is due to remote work. Getting rid of the opportunity for a developer to take their plans and have them reviewed in-person versus the online portal has removed one of the easiest routes to de-conflicting issues with development review.

I get that Johnson's priority is to eliminate the most visible signs of homelessness, but he needs to get on his increasing housing promise as well and actually streamline the development process versus just talking about it.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

My asinine solution: mobilize the National Guard and put them at the stations. Posse comitatus be damned.

Damn right. Police are just the less-skilled "law" half of "law and order" anyways. If we want order, call in the damn Army.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Shhhh..... the client might start taking a closer look at Bunt's expense reports. Though the $100 parking line item is probably just noise.

Personally, I usually bill a ride-share and go for the door-to-door drop-off option when traveling for business.

Round-trip ride share is not cheaper! The real reason I don't Lyft, though, is on the return end, it can be a heck of a wait for a car leaving DIA if you're on one of the later flights back from the West Coast. Otherwise I'd much prefer to be able to work en route.

Originally Posted by mhays

Induced demand is very real. There's a broad consensus in the planning world (the paid stooges seeming to be the main opposition).

When a highway is widened, it seems reasonable to commute the extra distance (until it fills up). So people drive a little farther, live a little further out, etc.

Induced demand on unpriced capacity is definitely real. But the progressive planning world uses the term incorrectly now. It used to be a response to "widening the highway will solve congestion" claims, and for that, it is an accurate response; increased capacity will not "solve congestion."

But nowadays induced demand is the argument for opposing capacity increases more generally. Because more cars are bad, and only by making driving more difficult can we make transit more competitive. (Arguments that the progressive planning world used to deny it was making - remember on this forum, "there is no war on cars" being said repeatedly - but now that war is embraced more openly.)

For that conversation, the more useful counter to induced demand is, "so what?" If it currently takes me 30 minutes to get from point A to point B (congested), the purpose of capacity expansion is not to reduce that to 20-minutes permanently ("solving congestion," as it were). What the capacity expansion does is enable another 50,000 people - up from 150,000 today - to make that same trip in 30 minutes. The "induced demand is evil" arguments fall flat then. Because in some regards, on a pure transportation basis (not an environmental argument) - increasing VMT means more people out doing the things they want to do, hauling kids around, generating economic activity, you name it.

This is especially the argument people should be making in growing regions. We are not talking about tearing down neighborhoods for a seventh freeway loop around downtown Cleveland. We are taking about adding a lane in a region that has doubled in population in two decades. Even if T-REX is still congested, it is moving a heck of a lot more people than it would have without the project. So what if it didn't "solve congestion" - that was never the point. Using "induced demand" to claim some sort of transportation policy "gotcha" because a roadway moving 1/3 more people takes just as many minutes to drive as it did 20 years ago only resonates in the progressive planning echo chamber. Does a majority think that a 3.5 million Denver metro would be better off if T-REX hadn't been done? Of course not.

"Mobility" - everybody's other favorite catch-phrase - *is* improved through capacity expansions, even accepting induced demand, and without needing to claim congestion is solved.

That's the real threat of EVs to the progressive planning crowd. Because everything I just typed out is still bad for greenhouse gases. When that argument has to shift to "but my EV is creating mine pollution in Azerbaijan" or even harder general "cars are bad for cities, even if they are clean" ...well, then, I think it is going to be hard for Dems to sustain an anti-roads majority. Because a growing percentage of people are going to roll their eyes at the notion that clean cars are still evil. Or at least, so evil that I should double my trip time and use alternative modes.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I'm partially convinced half of the development process headaches is due to remote work.

Totally. The fact that the data doesn't show U.S. productivity down by 50% in a remote work world just tells me they aren't measuring productivity correctly!

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Except we didn't go with option C. The cost isn't spread out at all. The fee structure is totally asinine. Buildings with the highest sidewalk 'usage' rate (apartments and condos) pay essentially nothing, while a few corner lot owners are essentially subsidizing the build out of sidewalks in neighborhoods where, in many cases, they aren't event wanted.

I'm picturing your stiletto heels really increasing the wear and tear on those sidewalks.

Obviously the lifecycle cost of "busier" concrete is higher than the cost of the suburban corner lot with twice as much concrete. Oh wait, no it's not.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Round-trip ride share is not cheaper! The real reason I don't Lyft, though, is on the return end, it can be a heck of a wait for a car leaving DIA if you're on one of the later flights back from the West Coast. Otherwise I'd much prefer to be able to work en route.

Hahaha! You're totally right. I do the ride-share-cost-be-damned option because it's the fastest door-to-door for me to get to DEN and it's a tiny-ass line item on the expense report. Anecdotally, I've never had to wait more than 20 minutes for a car at DEN and that was for a 130A flight from hell.

Fortunately I haven't had go with the backup of taking the A Line to get closer to home with the aim of grabbing a car at the station which absolutely shapes my airport travel approach.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by tommyboy733

I rode the E Line this last Sunday from DT to Belleview at 3:30 pm... someone smoking fentanyl/meth half way there. After his discarded the foil and got off the train, someone else picked it up and tried to smoke the residue. On the way home another person was smoking a cigarette on the train.

I rode the bus a few weeks ago (for the last time) at 7 pm. One person smoking meth/fentanyl, there were 2 FIGHTS on the bus, then a man got on dripping fluids and shit, literally rotten, open sores. The smell was so bad the person behind him got sick (!), me and the people around me starting choking up, I couldn't breath, and at the next stop the 10 or so "normal" people (working class service workers and a mom and her daughter coming home from the art museum) including myself exited the bus to escape the smell and waited 15 minutes for the next one.

In January, there was period 9 times in a row people were smoking meth/fentanyl on the W Line. That was during commuting hours... 8 am / 4 pm. I had a peer tell me it was "necessary" for them to smoke meth since for their own survival since it increases their body temperature in the cold... WTF. Neverminded they were doing it on the heated trains.

I watched a dealer sit on the W Line in in March. At every other stop stop someone would come on the train, buy drugs, and get off. 5 drug deals between Wadsworth and Downtown! He had 2 drugged up tweakers next to him acting as body guards.

A man threatened to kill me and "gut" me on the train. 2 other tweakers came and started yelling at me. The train was packed with "normal" people that time going to an event at Ball Arena. Probably 50 people, standing room only. No one came to help me or called 911. They just stared forward, frozen, like zombies. Their eyes all revealed fear and paralysis, everyone put their phones down, stopped talking, etc. but no one did shit. Sheep and cowards. That's the new normal now.

Last fall, a tweaker had a crossbow on the train and was screaming and threatening people. I called 911, and the operator argued with me whether I was in Jeffco or Denver. I told her I was technically in JeffCo at the time on a moving train, but about to cross Sheridan Blvd into Denver. "Well are you in Jeffco or Denver? One or the other?" The 911 operator kept asking for an address (on a moving train!), insisted I tell her where I was "currently" ("JeffCo/Lakewood on a moving train, but about to cross into Denver in 3 minutes..." "Well where are you now? What's your address?!?". I was telling her station names and everything. Then we argued about whether the man was actually pointing the crossbow directly at people. He wasn't, he was holding it in his hand pointed at the ground, while yelling at people. The 911 operator was like talking to a child.

I try to talk about these problems. Peers, friends, family, politicians (who obviously don't ride transit...), all invalidate my experiences. "Its not as bad as Baltimore". "You're overreacting/sensitive." "You espousing right wing thinking (I consider myself a liberal. Is using transit, supporting affordable housing, and not wanting to be subject to violence while going to work "right wing" now?)". It feels like if you bring it up, people just automatically try to discount or justify it. I can't believe what is happening, that this is the state of our society and culture. If its not on social media it doesn't exist I guess.

I wish this surprised me.

And yes, obviously you sound Trumpian. Crossbow man is obviously just somebody our inequitable society has left behind who deserves your pity. And open sores man, no way jail would be better for him, human rights dictate we allow him to work his shit out on his own time (while sleeping in your tree lawn). It's only fair. Stop being such a cold sonofabitch. And 911 person probably is underpaid and has a mean boss; you just weren't communicating clearly enough. :eyeroll:

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I wish this surprised me.

And yes, obviously you sound Trumpian. Crossbow man is obviously just somebody our inequitable society has left behind who deserves your pity. And open sores man, no way jail would be better for him, human rights dictate we allow him to work his shit out on his own time (while sleeping in your tree lawn). It's only fair. Stop being such a cold sonofabitch. And 911 person probably is underpaid and has a mean boss; you just weren't communicating clearly enough. :eyeroll:

Crossbowman was probably just heading from class at RMCC and his intentions were probably misunderstood.

I'm going to go the easy route and blame Lakewood PD for not policing the W Line purely on the basis that the crazy seems to start there and then trickles into Denver.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

That isn't how any of this works. I mean, we all know you are a troll and this is a troll move, to come in and demand proof about some complicated thing to try to sow doubt. But we're on to you. So the burden of proof is on you. Show us all examples of major highway widening projects that reduced traffic and congestion 5+ years post-construction. And by examples I mean more than one or two outliers, I mean enough examples that would disprove induced demand.

And if you can find them, then I want educated analysis from an expert as to why your examples apply and how they should inform other projects. I'm not going to accept "it's nonsense" Trumplogic, I want real answers from you Hamdummer.

You sound like the classic "urban elitist.' You just read a very concise common sense, easy to see classic demand-supply example but you reject it b/c it's not some nerdy stats analysis.

Originally Posted by tommyboy733

I rode the bus a few weeks ago (for the last time) at 7 pm. One person smoking meth/fentanyl, there were 2 FIGHTS on the bus, then a man got on dripping fluids and shit, literally rotten, open sores. The smell was so bad the person behind him got sick (!), me and the people around me starting choking up, I couldn't breath, and at the next stop the 10 or so "normal" people (working class service workers and a mom and her daughter coming home from the art museum) including myself exited the bus to escape the smell and waited 15 minutes for the next one.

Sounds like the affects of "tranq" from a long-time user. So sad but I agree it has to be awful to witness.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

I get that Johnson's priority is to eliminate the most visible signs of homelessness, but he needs to get on his increasing housing promise as well and actually streamline the development process versus just talking about it.

Denverite had a couple of articles that go to this dilemma.

We've been 'fighting' for years on how to accomplish affordable housing. Consider the difficulty in adding the challenge to house people who are homeless and addicted.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Damn right. Police are just the less-skilled "law" half of "law and order" anyways. If we want order, call in the damn Army.

A lot of the problem is on the enforcement side. No bail etc and a pat on the butt that tells criminals to "stop doing that."

Listening to late night talkers from Dallas and they were talking about Austin having cut the PD budget by a third couple of years ago and now people are complaining they can't get response to 911 calls and crime is out of control.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Round-trip ride share is not cheaper! The real reason I don't Lyft, though, is on the return end, it can be a heck of a wait for a car leaving DIA if you're on one of the later flights back from the West Coast. Otherwise I'd much prefer to be able to work en route.

Blog buddy moved up to Denver from the desert and mentioned that he preferred to drive Lyft over Uber in Denver.

Super nice guy, he's retired military with some hearing loss (like me) he switched to doing DoorDash in Highlands Ranch - South Littleton area. Doesn't make as much money but it's much easier, fewer miles and less fuel, and loves working this area.

[Passportphoto]

I hear you tommyboy733. They can cut the fares as much as they want. I won't ride it for free. They are unsafe and a public health hazard. Plus, I have to worry about my car the entire time I'm gone. What a shame.

[rds70]

Here is the final design of the 20 story apartment building proposed at 805 W 38th Avenue from the building permit application. The project will have 425 units and ground floor retail. The developer is Continental Realty Group of Littleton:

[TakeFive]

As always; nice work

Originally Posted by rds70

Here is the final design of the 20 story apartment building proposed at 805 W 38th Avenue from the building permit application. The project will have 425 units and ground floor retail. The developer is Continental Realty Group of Littleton:

Here's a rendering courtesy of Continental Realty Group

805 W 38th Avenue



20-Story Building Coming to Edge of Globeville
June 15, 2023 By By Eric Heinz - Denver NorthStar

“At one point, we did contemplate doing a condo tower, but we’re doing all apartments for rent,” Snyder said. “Fifty-one of them will be affordable, half of them will be 60% AMI (area median income) and half will be 80% AMI.”

Quite Interesting

“We reached out to whoever we could to talk to about this, and I think that people were excited to know that we were actually achieving the zoning that the city laid out for the area,” Snyder said. “Some of the other projects in the area are only going up five stories.”

“It’s a special area in my mind because there are only so many places in the city that have 20 stories zoning on them,” Snyder added. “We think it’s very important that we are utilizing the zoning that’s been afforded to this area.”

Continental Realty Group has an interesting background as it looks like most of their projects have been outside of Denver including Las Vegas, Metro Phoenix, Durango, Albuquerque, Overland Park, Kansas, Memphis, Louisville etc. Looks like they've focused a lot on buying existing projects for value-add purposes.

Given the proposed unit-affordability mix this is not a surprise.

Our current focus is developing workforce housing in high cost markets and inside opportunity zones while utilizing space efficient design with modular/pre-fab components to tighten the construction timeframes.

We strongly believe density, affordability, and sustainability are key factors in addressing the housing needs in our communities. ... We strive to preserve access for all to our communities by securing paths of affordability through reduction in construction costs and/or utilization of workforce housing finance instruments.

The End

[bunt_q]

We need a new term for “commie blocks” that are developed out of our over regulated semi-capitalist framework. Seems there is convergence.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

We need a new term for “commie blocks” that are developed out of our over regulated semi-capitalist framework. Seems there is convergence.

It's obvious that "freedom blocks" is the appropriate, somewhat ironic, descriptor.

[TakeFive]

Induced Demand? Not a problem

Originally Posted by Passportphoto

I hear you tommyboy733. They can cut the fares as much as they want. I won't ride it for free. They are unsafe and a public health hazard. Plus, I have to worry about my car the entire time I'm gone. What a shame.

Denver's got this down; just offer crappy transit service that repels normal people from riding.

Denver's crappy transit service is adding as much as 80,000 cars per day.

Silly to obsess over more freeway lanes; forget all the 'white paper' analysis when all you have to do to induce lots of cars is simply offer terrible transit service.

Fair to say that RTD needs to figure out how to run a transit system that's safe and comfortable to ride. While bus routes 15 and 15L have a history of being colorful the rest of the system should be rather boring. Boring is Good.

Some are suggesting that transit might need to de-emphasize commuting and realize other ways it can be beneficial. For example perhaps Arvada Station, Park Meadows or Lone Tree will become more of a destination.

[TakeFive]

So what are the current transit numbers?

Note: While the 1st quarter ridership numbers are now posted at APTA, RTD declined to provide weekday ridership numbers so I've had to use 4th quarter of 2022. 2022 was a nice bounce-back year for transit and chances are any ridership gains for 2023 are negligible.

Total weekday ridership for all modes 4th quarter

• 2019 - 406,000
• 2022 - 238,500 or 59% of 2019

Light Rail ridership

• 2019 - 95,300
• 2022 - 51,200 or 54%

Commuter Rail ridership

• 2019 - 40,000
• 2022 - 29,100 or 73%

All rail service combined ridership

• 2019 - 135,300
• 2022 - 80,300 or 59%

Bus Service ridership

• 2019 - 135,300
• 2022 - 80,300 or 59%

Notes:

• RTD has 125 bus routes and 8 rail lines
• Between 2019 and 2022 the ratio of rail ridership to bus ridership has remained impressively consistent. 1/3 for rail ridership and 2/3 for bus ridership.
• Commuter rail has benefited from better A Line performance plus the addition of some amount of N Line that was added after 2019.
• The 80,000 of imputed more cars on the road came from dividing the total ridership difference from 2019 to 2022 in half (trips versus total ridership).

Denver and Portland like two peas in a pod. Portland has similar issues and their ridership remains at 60% of 2019 ridership numbers.

Simple Question: if using transit is an unpleasant experience then how do transit experts and fans expect to boost ridership? Or should we simply celebrate Denver's 'Induced Demand' achievements.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I'm picturing your stiletto heels really increasing the wear and tear on those sidewalks.

Obviously the lifecycle cost of "busier" concrete is higher than the cost of the suburban corner lot with twice as much concrete. Oh wait, no it's not.

lol wut? This response is about as half baked as the sidewalk fee structure

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

Because they are really bad. At least for a first world country. Much like our streets and highways and bridges and electrical and communication infrastructure. We treat everything like the cost is the most important factor and the actual function of the infrastructure is way down the list...

We can agree to disagree on the first part of this. Other than a handful of very expensive city centers, my personal experience is that I haven't really been anywhere in the world that gets close to the level of accessibility we have in this country - legitimately, nowhere close.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

We need a new term for “commie blocks” that are developed out of our over regulated semi-capitalist framework. Seems there is convergence.

Commie blocks actually look better because they don't have a parking podium...

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

[SIZE="3"]Some are suggesting that transit might need to de-emphasize commuting and realize other ways it can be beneficial. For example perhaps Arvada Station, Park Meadows or Lone Tree will become more of a destination.

This would be an excellent question and analysis done by CHAT GPT. I've got to think mobile phone companies could sell movement data to large, unsophisticated transit agencies who could then contract with big tech to see where and how people are actually moving and formulate service plans accordingly. Same goes for roads and traffic signals. My hope is that AI eliminates transportation engineers from our universe entirely within the next decade.