DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I still think the crime at park and rides is a deterrent for a lot of people these days, and that's something that I would think could be fixed.

This is the whole rail system. The “push everyone out of Downtown and do nothing about it” initiatives just scatter everyone across the rail line. I’m on the E Line right now to DTC and while the itself train is okay, a large portion of the stations have dicey groups of people. If I wasn’t 6’ 4” and angry-faced, I’m not sure I would tolerate the trains in certain directions.

[bobg]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Can you give some backup on this assertion?

You might recall I was kind of pro HOT lane when I70 was being discussed on here, because in theory it should mitigate induced demand.

Since then I've dismissed most of the reasoning advocates had for opposing HOT lanes as conjecture, until I saw someone link to the induced demand travel calculator from UC Davis:

https://travelcalculator.ncst.ucdavis.edu/about.html

Looked at some of the underlying supporting research and documentation:

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1hh9b9mf

In particular a citation for a study out of cal:

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/18RD022.pdf


It still doesn't do a great job of distinguishing the impact of HOV vs HOT, but it's enough to convince me of an effect. But to the best of my knowledge there's not consensus around that yet.

The because people 'hope to use the free lanes uncongested 'was the best explanation I've seen to explain that effect so far.

[mhays]

Induced demand is very real. There's a broad consensus in the planning world (the paid stooges seeming to be the main opposition).

When a highway is widened, it seems reasonable to commute the extra distance (until it fills up). So people drive a little farther, live a little further out, etc.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I long ago stopped using the train to get to the airport. Too slow (including the park and transfer time). And I stopped using the shuttle lots (even less reliable) and economy lots (no longer priced advantageously). I fly 50+ times per year for projects all over the place, and I just pay for the garage (which is shockingly full - that’s where the majority of cars are being swallowed). I generally leave my house 90 minutes before a scheduled departure, 37 minute drive/42 on a bad day, 5 minutes to park, 10 through security to gate, board 20-30 minutes prior to departure. The A line does not enable clockwork flying.

But yes, Peña is that bad these days. Yowzers.

Well we're on the same page - the train is more reliable than the shuttle lots; and the most convenient option is (duh!) still the garage. I also pay the premium to park close if it's a short trip and if I think my time is worth the cost. It's pretty privileged though to get to just always pay for the garage - I think you probably know full well not everybody can afford to make that choice every time.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by RyanD

This is the whole rail system. The “push everyone out of Downtown and do nothing about it” initiatives just scatter everyone across the rail line. I’m on the E Line right now to DTC and while the itself train is okay, a large portion of the stations have dicey groups of people. If I wasn’t 6’ 4” and angry-faced, I’m not sure I would tolerate the trains in certain directions.

God forbid RTD contract with off duty police officers to patrol the LRT stations while they work to plus up their transit police unit. Though this glib response doesn't acknowledge the shortage of police offices that would make this difficult.

My asinine solution: mobilize the National Guard and put them at the stations. Posse comitatus be damned.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by mr1138

Well we're on the same page - the train is more reliable than the shuttle lots; and the most convenient option is (duh!) still the garage. I also pay the premium to park close if it's a short trip and if I think my time is worth the cost. It's pretty privileged though to get to just always pay for the garage - I think you probably know full well not everybody can afford to make that choice every time.

Shhhh..... the client might start taking a closer look at Bunt's expense reports. Though the $100 parking line item is probably just noise.

Personally, I usually bill a ride-share and go for the door-to-door drop-off option when traveling for business.

[coolmandan03]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Sky Harbor has a people mover (as you know) that starts at a light rail station, then moves to 'close-in' parking through the airport and is now finished to the consolidated rental car parking.

The only passengers at the light rail station are from the adjacent parking lot for airline pilots and attendants.

You're totally overlooking the 9,000 airport employees that use it every day (I do a lot of work at PHX, as well as DEN). Also, the employee lots are for many more outside of pilots and attendants (or did you forget that the airport is filled with ticket counters, baggage handlers, concessionaires, janitors, maintenance, etc...)

Same with the A-Line, 35,000 people work at DEN - and a little less than half take RTD. That's 17,500 people not driving on Peña to work or relying on the Airport's shuttles from the employee parking lots. I would assume that's more than downtown commuters on some dates (airports are busy 7 days a week... not 5). Not to mention that in both PHX and DEN examples - employee parking is not free.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

But I have a passion for facts and the real world.

I guess not... Or your understanding of the airport (both DEN and PHX) is obtuse

[TakeFive]

Thanks for the feedback

Originally Posted by coolmandan03

You're totally overlooking the 9,000 airport employees that use it every day (I do a lot of work at PHX, as well as DEN). Also, the employee lots are for many more outside of pilots and attendants (or did you forget that the airport is filled with ticket counters, baggage handlers, concessionaires, janitors, maintenance, etc...)

Same with the A-Line, 35,000 people work at DEN - and a little less than half take RTD. That's 17,500 people not driving on Peña to work or relying on the Airport's shuttles from the employee parking lots. I would assume that's more than downtown commuters on some dates (airports are busy 7 days a week... not 5). Not to mention that in both PHX and DEN examples - employee parking is not free.

I guess not... Or your understanding of the airport (both DEN and PHX) is obtuse

As a fan of the facts; that doesn't mean I always get them right and I want to be corrected when I'm wrong because, well, I like knowing the the facts.

Couple of things. As you read my comments I'm obviously talking about passengers. When it comes to any specific knowledge of employees I'm pretty ignorant (lack of knowledge). I'm not surprised that nearly half of employees use transit. Don't think I disputed that since I'm not aware.

With respect to the people mover at Sky Harbor the specific lot I was referring to is at 44th street and Washington light rail station, south side. True, I was making an observation. I'll make a point to get specific feedback once I start driving again (soon). With respect to any other employee lots I'd assume they use shuttles?

Originally Posted by RyanD

This is the whole rail system. The “push everyone out of Downtown and do nothing about it” initiatives just scatter everyone across the rail line. I’m on the E Line right now to DTC and while the itself train is okay, a large portion of the stations have dicey groups of people. If I wasn’t 6’ 4” and angry-faced, I’m not sure I would tolerate the trains in certain directions.

That's disgusting; that's so sad.

I know Phx Metro also has issues. Given the heat we've been dealing with they're pretty liberal in letting homeless ride the rails. At least down here the majority of homeless are well scattered and are more likely to hang out near freeway interchanges and convenience stores.

I also read where the LA Metro has done well with increasing ridership post-pandemic to over 75%. The one big deficit is with female riders; they're not returning because they don't feel safe. So Mayor Bass is adding over 200 'ambassadors' to ride the rails and buses.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by RyanD

This is the whole rail system. The “push everyone out of Downtown and do nothing about it” initiatives just scatter everyone across the rail line. I’m on the E Line right now to DTC and while the itself train is okay, a large portion of the stations have dicey groups of people. If I wasn’t 6’ 4” and angry-faced, I’m not sure I would tolerate the trains in certain directions.

I put on my mean mug if the platform or train starts looking sketch. Gotta keep your city smarts about you!

I'd say taking BART from SFO to downtown is sketchier though. I've never had to get off a Denver train because an unbathed (for months) person sat near me.

[TakeFive]

Good Grief

Originally Posted by bobg

You might recall I was kind of pro HOT lane when I70 was being discussed on here, because in theory it should mitigate induced demand.

Since then I've dismissed most of the reasoning advocates had for opposing HOT lanes as conjecture, until I saw someone link to the induced demand travel calculator from UC Davis: https://travelcalculator.ncst.ucdavis.edu/about.html

Some of it may be my age but then I've never had a great tolerance for geeky statistics.

I assume we can all agree on this

"When they add lanes to a freeway there will be more traffic on the freeway after the expansion?

The question is according to what I had read some years ago is do new people rush out and get a drivers license b/c they're adding more freeway lanes. Answer: I don't think so.

So I started reading your 1st link and nothing has much changed. It didn't take long to realize they try to find relevant, accurate data and then they use correlation to suggest conclusions. No I haven't yet read how they try to determine the reasons but honestly my common sense knows the reasons. (Honestly, I'm not a Rocket surgeon).

I-70 expansion

I don't recall all the specific around various arguments. But did adding lanes, even Lexus Lanes add more traffic once the project was finished. I'd be shocked if that didn't happen.

Back to your UC Davis analysis

They reference a "Handy and Boarnet" analysis. I'm a fan of Marlon Boarnet; here's a quote from a different study. https://news.usc.edu/126791/how-transit-...-to-the-station-make-all-the-difference/

The researchers found that car commuters in low-income neighborhoods in San Diego have about 30 times greater job accessibility than those who take public transit.

[TakeFive]

Excellent; you raise a good point or two

Originally Posted by mhays

Induced demand is very real. There's a broad consensus in the planning world (the paid stooges seeming to be the main opposition).

When a highway is widened, it seems reasonable to commute the extra distance (until it fills up). So people drive a little farther, live a little further out, etc.

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with this but it also raises a critical difference between Seattle and Denver. So let's compare and contrast the two cities. As I often say 'context' is everything. This should help define the role of 'induced' demand in each city.

Denver has two critical interstate freeways: I-70 which goes east and west and I-25 which goes north and south. Both are critical to the movement of goods and services.

I-70 goes out to Denver International Airport. As the county's 3rd busiest airport this a Big Deal. Also along I-70 between downtown and closer to the airport is where the largest volume of warehousing exists. I know you're familiar with Amazon and its over 60,000 employees in the Seattle/area and that's a boatload of commuters.

Amazon b/c of its e-commerce growth has Amazon drivers all over the place. Then add in FedEx, UPS and all the local delivery guys and that's a boatload of drivers but not commuters - and we haven't even considered all the 18-wheelers. In addition to the airport I-70 is also the key access into the mountains to the west with all its ski areas etc.

I recently walked along 3rd Ave in Seattle (via video) and what jumped out at me (and especially considering the greater downtown area and not just the CBD) is how much bigger (spread out) and how much denser Seattle is compared to Denver. Being lazy I'll guestimate that Seattle has easily 4X the number of commuters to the downtown area as does Denver.

With respect to I-25 it's much the same story as I-70. It's worth pointing out that although Denver is the densest, the population has mainly grown along the front range going north and south.

Yes of course commuters use both Denver freeways but there's not the same commuting pattern to downtown as you have in Seattle.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by COtoOC

I put on my mean mug if the platform or train starts looking sketch. Gotta keep your city smarts about you!

I'd say taking BART from SFO to downtown is sketchier though. I've never had to get off a Denver train because an unbathed (for months) person sat near me.

Eh… I’ve had to transfer cars many times due to RTD’s lax policies on open drug consumption. Sometimes the meth/fent is so bad you lose your sense of smell for a bit while waiting to hop cars.

This usually isn’t during commuter hours, it’s the off peak times and quiet weekends where it gets real bad. My feedback for every survey around public transit recently has been: have these leaders, board members, etc ride these systems on the off-peak hours. It’s sad to see people parading transit and wondering why it’s not that popular when it’s a deeply broken system from an efficiency and safety standpoint.

I know I’ve been quite negative lately but there are so many… opportunities right now that could make our city great if anyone could give about 30% more of a shit. 18 month wait to get an affordable housing SDP through CPD, agencies alienating developers (DOTI), RTD just letting the Wild West take over, constant allergies with condos and for-sale housing, and refusal to meet in the middle for anything is killing us. Talking with those in the developer circles, it’s just a sad, sad circus right now. Apparently even getting a TCO these days is a nightmare and might take a half dozen inspector visits at weird hours because that agency refuses to manage their time.

Other post-COVID cities are beginning to run laps around us. We are usually used to landing on top, not trying to race to the bottom because of sheer incompetence and lack of accountability.

Rant over. Please continue about how expanding Peña is our largest, most pressing issue.

[TakeFive]

"Best Comment of the Month" and there's not many days left to try and top this one

Originally Posted by RyanD

Eh… I’ve had to transfer cars many times due to RTD’s lax policies on open drug consumption. Sometimes the meth/fent is so bad you lose your sense of smell for a bit while waiting to hop cars.

This usually isn’t during commuter hours, it’s the off peak times and quiet weekends where it gets real bad. My feedback for every survey around public transit recently has been: have these leaders, board members, etc ride these systems on the off-peak hours. It’s sad to see people parading transit and wondering why it’s not that popular when it’s a deeply broken system from an efficiency and safety standpoint.

I know I’ve been quite negative lately but there are so many… opportunities right now that could make our city great if anyone could give about 30% more of a shit. 18 month wait to get an affordable housing (or any) SDP through CPD, agencies alienating developers (DOTI), RTD just letting the Wild West take over, constant allergies with condos and for-sale housing, and refusal to meet in the middle for anything is killing us. Talking with those in the developer circles, it’s just a sad, sad circus right now. Apparently even getting a TCO these days is a nightmare and might take a half dozen inspector visits at weird hours because that agency refuses to manage their time.

Other post-COVID cities are beginning to run laps around us. We are usually used to landing on top, not trying to race to the bottom because of sheer incompetence and lack of accountability.

Rant over. Please continue about how expanding Peña is our largest, most pressing issue.

Let's circle back around to "650 17th street" and let's assume they won't allow a curb cut on 17th. I bet we could come up with some good promotions.

For prospective hotel guests how 'bout something like this?

Best value in downtown. Don't let the back alley entrance bother you as your bright and cheerful room awaits you.

And for prospective tenants maybe something like this:

Ahh, once you've lived here for a few months that back alley access won't bother you; you'll get used to it.

How many prospective tenants would decide not to apply before they had even seen the units?

In either case, this is too tacky; very low class.

Seriously, how many people would want to invest their hard-earned money in a project that was flawed starting at the Front Door?

LOVED THE RANT

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

But that's the problem - you could replace your sidewalk multiple times, but will you? Full replacement is not cheap and a most people opt to not do it. Because of our freeze/thaw cycles and people opting for the cheapest work (hello 2 inch thick quickrete laid in winter) the sidewalk lifetime here can be super low. The expense of repairs meant that a lot of owners couldn't afford to do anything at all with their sidewalks.

So our sidewalks are a mess and in parts of the city are non-existent. The idea was to spread the cost out over more people with the goal of completing and fixing sidewalks city-wide. And remember that sidewalks are important parts of urbanization - broken sidewalks discourage foot traffic and act as barriers. If you are on this forum to do more than troll I assume you are an advocate for urbanization - even if you're only here to vocalize your hope for a supertall in Pueblo you should understand that pedestrian accessibility is key.

So yes, the cost is high and maybe it seems like a tax for something you don't "need", but the options were:

A) continue to allow the sidewalks to be useless and just shrug away any attempt to improve the city.

B) Actually force people to replace or repair at full cost and create an unequal system that punishes anyone who can't shell out the cost.

or

C) Spread out the cost to everyone and have the city do the work.

Was there an option D? Maybe. We could have created a fund to help people with option B, but it would have still required some level of money coming in and assumes the owners would act any faster than the city (which we assume is slow) But for every responsible owner there is a Dikou letting man-sized holes open up in their sidewalk along 18th.

Except we didn't go with option C. The cost isn't spread out at all. The fee structure is totally asinine. Buildings with the highest sidewalk 'usage' rate (apartments and condos) pay essentially nothing, while a few corner lot owners are essentially subsidizing the build out of sidewalks in neighborhoods where, in many cases, they aren't event wanted.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

So our sidewalks are a mess and in parts of the city are non-existent. The idea was to spread the cost out over more people with the goal of completing and fixing sidewalks city-wide. And remember that sidewalks are important parts of urbanization - broken sidewalks discourage foot traffic and act as barriers...

I don't know why people think sidewalks in American cities are so bad. MOST of the rest of the world has far less accessible sidewalks (if any at all) and MUCH more foot traffic. Foot traffic and urbanization come from density, not from the quality of sidewalks or the magnitude of accessibility of those sidewalks. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big supporter of accessibility and it's the right thing to do, but I whole heartedly disagree that lack of adequate quality/accessible sidewalks is holding back urbanization - IMO that's 100% a function of density (or lack thereof in our case).

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by RyanD

...Other post-COVID cities are beginning to run laps around us. We are usually used to landing on top, not trying to race to the bottom because of sheer incompetence and lack of accountability.

Rant over. Please continue about how expanding Peña is our largest, most pressing issue.

My business is leaving Denver and Colorado for this reason. There is no justification for staying anymore. There are easier places to exist and work and more than that, there are other places that actually WELCOME YOU! We are on an unstoppable path to Californication and for folks like me who have been here our whole lives, it's very sad to 'give up' on the place you know and love. It's sad to see the City CHOOSING to prioritize curb cuts for deeply theoretical worst case conflict scenarios at the expense of housing production.

If you're not in the development business, I don't really think you can understand what has happened in Denver over the past 30 years, but particularly during Hancock's final two terms. The City has grown exponentially and it is rapidly moving in the wrong direction in SO.MANY.WAYS. Our elected leaders are not changing course, but rather digging in and making existing problems (like housing) much worse and there is no clear directive to staff (in Denver and everywhere else) of what to prioritize and how to do it. In fact, in most areas outside of Denver, staff and councils are actively working to limit housing creation from development fatigue, infrastructure strain due to decades of mismanagement, and as a result of weak leadership's knee jerk response to the NIMBY movement. When taken together, the last decade has seen a giant collection of seemingly small and benign regulations choke off housing creation.

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by mhays

Induced demand is very real. There's a broad consensus in the planning world (the paid stooges seeming to be the main opposition).

When a highway is widened, it seems reasonable to commute the extra distance (until it fills up). So people drive a little farther, live a little further out, etc.

It’s the most logically dishonest argument that’s ever made. The presumption is people get in the new roads because they’re there without acknowledgment that the destination is actually what’s “inducing” the travel.

Yes, people take roads that are built. That’s the point. Problem with the “inducement” argument is that they’re going somewhere anyway. Everything we do “induces” travel demand. It’s circular logic nonsense.

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I don't know why people think sidewalks in American cities are so bad. MOST of the rest of the world has far less accessible sidewalks (if any at all) and MUCH more foot traffic. Foot traffic and urbanization come from density, not from the quality of sidewalks or the magnitude of accessibility of those sidewalks. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big supporter of accessibility and it's the right thing to do, but I whole heartedly disagree that lack of adequate quality/accessible sidewalks is holding back urbanization - IMO that's 100% a function of density (or lack thereof in our case).

Because they are really bad. At least for a first world country. Much like our streets and highways and bridges and electrical and communication infrastructure. We treat everything like the cost is the most important factor and the actual function of the infrastructure is way down the list.

And I agree that density is a key factor in urbanization, but some of the worst sidewalks in Denver are in the densest neighborhoods, especially around empty lots or older buildings. They're even worse in the neighborhoods one or two stops out from downtown that should be denser and are prime candidates for density. West Denver, Park Hill, Sunnyside, & Baker all have potential but are a mess.

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

It’s the most logically dishonest argument that’s ever made. The presumption is people get in the new roads because they’re there without acknowledgment that the destination is actually what’s “inducing” the travel.

Yes, people take roads that are built. That’s the point. Problem with the “inducement” argument is that they’re going somewhere anyway. Everything we do “induces” travel demand. It’s circular logic nonsense.

That isn't how any of this works. I mean, we all know you are a troll and this is a troll move, to come in and demand proof about some complicated thing to try to sow doubt. But we're on to you. So the burden of proof is on you. Show us all examples of major highway widening projects that reduced traffic and congestion 5+ years post-construction. And by examples I mean more than one or two outliers, I mean enough examples that would disprove induced demand.

And if you can find them, then I want educated analysis from an expert as to why your examples apply and how they should inform other projects. I'm not going to accept "it's nonsense" Trumplogic, I want real answers from you Hamdummer.

[tommyboy733]

I rode the E Line this last Sunday from DT to Belleview at 3:30 pm... someone smoking fentanyl/meth half way there. After his discarded the foil and got off the train, someone else picked it up and tried to smoke the residue. On the way home another person was smoking a cigarette on the train.

I rode the bus a few weeks ago (for the last time) at 7 pm. One person smoking meth/fentanyl, there were 2 FIGHTS on the bus, then a man got on dripping fluids and shit, literally rotten, open sores. The smell was so bad the person behind him got sick (!), me and the people around me starting choking up, I couldn't breath, and at the next stop the 10 or so "normal" people (working class service workers and a mom and her daughter coming home from the art museum) including myself exited the bus to escape the smell and waited 15 minutes for the next one.

In January, there was period 9 times in a row people were smoking meth/fentanyl on the W Line. That was during commuting hours... 8 am / 4 pm. I had a peer tell me it was "necessary" for them to smoke meth since for their own survival since it increases their body temperature in the cold... WTF. Neverminded they were doing it on the heated trains.

I watched a dealer sit on the W Line in in March. At every other stop stop someone would come on the train, buy drugs, and get off. 5 drug deals between Wadsworth and Downtown! He had 2 drugged up tweakers next to him acting as body guards.

A man threatened to kill me and "gut" me on the train. 2 other tweakers came and started yelling at me. The train was packed with "normal" people that time going to an event at Ball Arena. Probably 50 people, standing room only. No one came to help me or called 911. They just stared forward, frozen, like zombies. Their eyes all revealed fear and paralysis, everyone put their phones down, stopped talking, etc. but no one did shit. Sheep and cowards. That's the new normal now.

Last fall, a tweaker had a crossbow on the train and was screaming and threatening people. I called 911, and the operator argued with me whether I was in Jeffco or Denver. I told her I was technically in JeffCo at the time on a moving train, but about to cross Sheridan Blvd into Denver. "Well are you in Jeffco or Denver? One or the other?" The 911 operator kept asking for an address (on a moving train!), insisted I tell her where I was "currently" ("JeffCo/Lakewood on a moving train, but about to cross into Denver in 3 minutes..." "Well where are you now? What's your address?!?". I was telling her station names and everything. Then we argued about whether the man was actually pointing the crossbow directly at people. He wasn't, he was holding it in his hand pointed at the ground, while yelling at people. The 911 operator was like talking to a child.

I try to talk about these problems. Peers, friends, family, politicians (who obviously don't ride transit...), all invalidate my experiences. "Its not as bad as Baltimore". "You're overreacting/sensitive." "You espousing right wing thinking (I consider myself a liberal. Is using transit, supporting affordable housing, and not wanting to be subject to violence while going to work "right wing" now?)". It feels like if you bring it up, people just automatically try to discount or justify it. I can't believe what is happening, that this is the state of our society and culture. If its not on social media it doesn't exist I guess.