The US Census Bureau thread

[The North One]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There may be some undercounting, but it's marginal. Duggan is not going to contest Detroit into showing growth. They should put more effort into actually addressing the underlying issues behind the decline.

Nobody said he was nor is that what anybody in the Duggan administration thinks. Don't you think accurate representation and funding in government is important? He's doing exactly what he should and he's right.

Things are addressed. There's no more foreclosures. The city is updating and building new public and affordable housing. There's barely any current population loss. These are losses from the beginning of the decade which everybody already knew about. There's billions in private investment, thousands of new high paying jobs about to be open in the city the likes not seen in 60 years. Healthy annual budget surpluses. They're doing their jobs and leadership hasn't been this competent in a very long time.

[tdawg]

Huntsville, AL’s number is shockingly above the estimate and it is now comfortably Alabama’s largest city and growing like kudzu.

[Camelback]

In the last ten years, America added 61% of Canada's total 2020 population.


giphy

[LAsam]

Originally Posted by cactuspunk

MSA numbers are here under the CBSAs tab: https://www.census.gov/library/visua...tate-data.html

So LA city increased by 106,126, or 2.8%, but LA MSA increased by 1,050,002, or 8.6%. The area still has healthy population growth, it's just predominantly not within LA city for a variety of reasons, the least of which isn't the undersupply of housing.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by The North One

Nobody said he was nor is that what anybody in the Duggan administration thinks. Don't you think accurate representation and funding in government is important? He's doing exactly what he should and he's right.

Things are addressed. There's no more foreclosures. The city is updating and building new public and affordable housing. There's barely any current population loss. These are losses from the beginning of the decade which everybody already knew about. There's billions in private investment, thousands of new high paying jobs about to be open in the city the likes not seen in 60 years. Healthy annual budget surpluses. They're doing their jobs and leadership hasn't been this competent in a very long time.

If there was a material undercount, sure, contest it. I'm not convinced there was a material undercount (more than 5%). That said, this isn't aging well:

Since his 2013 election, Duggan has often said that Detroit would gain population while he was mayor. And that he should be judged by whether the city reverses a 60-year population decline during his term. Duggan even told the Wall Street Journal in 2014 that “the single standard a mayor should be defined on is whether the population of the city is going up or down,” adding that he didn’t expect to win another term in 2017 if the population didn’t increase.

https://www.bridgemi.com/urban-affai...ggan-cant-keep

So far, he hasn't figured out just like the six mayors before him.

[deja vu]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It looks like 100% of Michigan's growth was in Metro Detroit, Metro Grand Rapids, and Metro Ann Arbor.

Yep pretty much. Some marginal increases in Lansing MSA (it grew by less than 7,000, equating to 1.2%). Grand Traverse County grew quite a bit too (9.5%) - by far the largest percent increase in the northern half of the state - but that's only ~8,200 people.

And my Grand Rapids CSA math was a bit off. Sorry - I have corrected it in the original post. I was adding the outlying cities, but not the entire counties.

CSA - 2010: 1,320,064
CSA - 2020: 1,423,632

Still, this represents a growth of about 100,000 in the Grand Rapids CSA.

[Steely Dan]

so for the past handful of years, the local media in IL (based on mostly bogus census estimates) have droned on and on and on about "The Great Illinois Exodus".

and while it is true that the state was one of only 3 that posted negative growth for the past decade, the great exodus is really just a downstate thing.



Illinois 2010: 12,830,632

Illinois 2020: 12,812,508

growth: -18,124 (−0.1%)




9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2010: 8,586,609

9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2020: 8,730,688

growth: +144,079 (+1.7%)




the rest of IL 2010: 4,244,023

the rest of IL 2020: 4,081,820

growth: -162,203 (−3.8%)



chicagoland's modest growth is the only thing keeping IL barely treading water.






another popular narrative in the local media pertaining to the "The Great Illinois Exodus" is that everyone and their brother in Chicagoland is jumping the border over to NW Indiana because taxes.

but in reality, the 5 counties of NW Indiana (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton & Japser Counties) only gained a combined total of ~11,800 people over the past decade, hardly some earth-shattering, dynamic-changing, mass migration within a CSA of nearly 10M people.

[deja vu]

Originally Posted by tdawg

Huntsville, AL’s number is shockingly above the estimate and it is now comfortably Alabama’s largest city and growing like kudzu.

Wow this surprises me too. It came in ~14,500 above the 2019 estimate.

Birmingham came in at 200,733; Huntsville at 215,006. Birmingham was at 212,237 in 2010; Huntsville at 180,105.

Are there other examples of first and second place cities switching, in other states?

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

chicagoland's modest growth is the only thing keeping IL barely treading water.

Indeed, this is the first Census since 1930 where the city of Chicago has increased its percentage of Illinois' population.

Originally Posted by deja vu

Are there other examples of first and second place cities switching, in other states?

Nashville and Memphis in Tennessee. For metro areas, Cincinnati and Cleveland in Ohio.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I got pretty close on NYC. Dallas and Houston landed exactly where expected. And I was pretty far off on Chicago and L.A., but happy to be wrong there.

Austin Estimate: 995,484
Austin Count: 961,855
Error: 3.5%

Austin Metro Estimate: 2,295,303
Austin Metro Count: 2,283,371
Error: .5%

San Antonio Estimate: 1,567,118
San Antonio Count: 1,434,625
Error: 9.2%

San Antonio Metro Estimate: 2,590,732
San Antonio Metro Count: 2,558,143
Error: 1.3%

Dallas Estimate: 1,343,266
Dallas Count: 1,304,379
Error: 3.0%

Fort Worth Estimate: 927,720
Fort Worth Count: 918,915 (please verify—I cannot find a second news source verification of this online, so correct me if wrong please).
Error: 1.0%

DFW Metro Estimate: 7,694,138
DFW Count: 7,637,387
Error: .7%

Houston Estimate: 2,316,120
Houston Count: 2,304,580
Error: .5%

Houston Metro Estimate: 7,154,478
Houston Metro Count: 7,122,240
Error: .5%

Can I just point out that you also said Austin was going to be a miss and that San Antonio would reach the estimate. If Dallas’s 3% miss is a success to you, Austin’s estimate was also a success. San Antonio’s was a big swing and a big miss. Personally, I think both Dallas and Austin are misses being outside the 99% confidence intervals.

Texas Estimate (Balance): 9,626,108
Texas Count (Balance): 9,544,064
Error: .8%

Clearly the error wasn’t elsewhere.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If there was a material undercount, sure, contest it. I'm not convinced there was a material undercount (more than 5%). That said, this isn't aging well:



So far, he hasn't figured out just like the six mayors before him.

Changing a city population trajectory is a slow process. I don't doubt he'll get to claim victory soon. He has other things he could boast about though, like accelerating drops in poverty rates.

Those latest yearly estimates for the city were within the margin of error. Considering census seems to have a problem with underestimating big northern cities one could argue years such as 2019 were grains.

[tdawg]

I think Austin’s shine might be wearing off. I’d love to be wrong but the city is less appealing to me now as a post-NYC choice than it was 5 years ago. I do applaud the citizenry for voting for rail transit vs one of my other top choices-Nashville. Maybe Austin just had a better plan.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Anybody else here get the "American Community Survey" form to fill out? I got mine last week and completed it online. It prominently says your "response is required by law". Wouldn't want to go to census prison where doubtless the scurviest characters in the country reside (all the thieves and others having been released due to covid and "restorative justice").

I guess not, so my demographics represent the entire city of San Francisco.

[subterranean]

Portland metro:

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area

Total population (2020): 2,512,859
----
Population Data
Total population (2020): 2,512,859
Total population (2010): 2,226,009
Numeric change (2010–2020): 286,850
Percent change (2010–2020): 12.9

Multnomah County:
Percent Change: 10.9
2020 Total Population: 815,428
2010 Total Population: 735,334

Washington County:
Percent Change: 13.3
2020 Total Population: 600,372
2010 Total Population: 529,710

Clackamas County:
Percent Change: 12.1
2020 Total Population: 421,401
2010 Total Population: 375,992

Clark County, Washington:
Percent Change: 18.3
2020 Total Population: 503,311
2010 Total Population: 425,363

[cabasse]

slightly disappointed atlanta didn't crack 500k. so close... (but this means it probably is over 500 now!)

looking forward to the "what are your city's densest census tracts?" thread. midtown has gotten pretty dense in a few tracts, with one over 50k ppsm; i don't remember anything that high last decade.

[BG918]

Tulsa MSA officially joins the 1M+ metro club at 1,015,331

[JManc]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Can I just point out that you also said Austin was going to be a miss and that San Antonio would reach the estimate. If Dallas’s 3% miss is a success to you, Austin’s estimate was also a success. San Antonio’s was a big swing and a big miss. Personally, I think both Dallas and Austin are misses being outside the 99% confidence intervals.

lol...Whoa...He's just a guy on the internet making gross estimates about population predictions not making Six-Sigma specifications.

[Yuri]

For the first time in history, New York metro area grew faster than Los Angeles metro area: 6.25% vs 4.29%.

When they released state numbers, I suspected that would happen. It’s a massive thing as the story of Los Angeles overcoming New York has been around for the past 60 years.

[ChiMIchael]

How does anyone find the city level stats?

[dc_denizen]

Excellent results for northeast cities and even Chicago .