Future Transit System Fantasy Ideas

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

For sure, prior to the shut-down, Carleton was the main destination, but with major TOD, a massive new health care complex, an arena, the library and new development, that will change.

1. While there are/will be some TOD on the Trillium Line, there aren't all that many opportunities, certainly not enough to fill trains. While TOD is certainly good, you need a massive number of units to provide significant increase in ridership relative to capacity*,
2. The hospital will be another destination (like Carleton) and won't generate that many peak Bayview/Confederation transfers,
3. There will be a post event surge created by the arena, but once again, it won't generate that many peak Bayview/Confederation transfers,
4. Yes employees at the library may contribute to peak Bayview/Confederation transfers, but how many people are you talking about? Users of the library are more likely to travel off peak. Great of increasing utilization but won't cause overloading.
5. Time will tell what other developments occur, but I don't see them pushing the needle on peak Bayview/Confederation transfers significantly.

* Using the Claridge Icon as an example, it has 320 units and the Trillium line will have a capacity of between 2500 & 3000 PPHPD. Even if every unit has 1 person taking transit downtown in a given peak period hour (unlikely), that is less than a 15% increase in ridership relative to capacity, and that is for the tallest building in Ottawa. In reality the number will be much smaller as not everyone works downtown, takes transit, and travels during peak periods.